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How Trump’s trade war with China will hurt the American farmers who voted him in
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To analyze which nation might blink first, CNN examined China’s largest imports from the United States — soybeans — to see if and how that demand could be met elsewhere, what US farmers stand to lose and more.
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China buys mainly agricultural products from the US, including soybeans, oilseeds and grains. Soybean imports, mostly used for animal feed, already took a hit during Trump’s first term when the two countries sparred in an earlier trade war.
At the time, China sought to diversify the source of its imports and looked to other countries for agricultural products. It’s set to do that again after imposing a 125% tariff on all US imports – a move analysts expect could send China’s imports of American agricultural commodities like soybeans close to zero.
US soybean exports to China are now subject to a total tariff of 135%, resulting from the 10% tariff imposed on certain agricultural products in March plus the 125% levy announced on Friday.
During the first US-China trade war, Brazil — the world’s leading soybean exporter — emerged as a winner, with China’s imports of the legume surging over the years. Brazilian soybean exports to China have grown by more than 280% since 2010 while US exports have remained flat.
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With production expected to rise — the Brazilian soybean crop is projected to reach record levels this year — China could increase its imports from Brazil and other South American countries like Argentina, which is currently the world’s third-largest soybean producer after Brazil and the US.
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The US agricultural sector lost around $27 billion during the 2018 trade war, with 71% of the losses being soybean-related, according to the American Soybean Association.
And farmers, many of whom live in states that went for Trump in the 2024 election, are still struggling with the fallout. Only Illinois, the top soybean producer, and Minnesota, the third-largest soybean producing state, went for former Vice President Kamala Harris last November.
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