CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #13

[Confusion]

Unless the he tv left on , bed messy and the cereal bowl left out was not staged , why in the 4 hours MR was home did he not clear up ?

It seems odd that he is at home and waiting on his son to text him that he just left everything as it were without tidying up . Unless he had staged it and could not clean it up until the right people had seen the staging ?????

I'd like to say it's a guy thing, but I'm not a guy! :blushing: My sun got up for school after I left for work when he was younger. I'd fix a breakfast, he'd put it in the microwave and rinse the dishes when he finished it, leaving them next to the sink. I've never seen much sense in running dishwater and wasting the time to wash just one bowl and one spoon. As for making the bed, my housekeeper does it every week when she comes! I really don't see him leaving that stuff to stage the scene, it was still there weeks later when he was interviewed. MOO

They were saying the same thing (could be found alive) about the two cousins just found dead, as I recall.

The girls were gone for 5 months, and they still haven't said if they were killed immediately or held for some time.

 

[IHAVENOCLUE]

Long time lurker, first time poster. There's just something about Dylan that grabbed me and won't let me go. high hopes for the search yesterday but since it came up empty, I am forced to think beyond MR (who has always been my focus).

Checking registered SO is one thing but the world is chock full o'crazies. What is the percentage of stranger abduction/murder vs familiar adult? Stats for molesters skew higher toward known and trusted adults vs random strangers (coach/friend's parents, etc) but I expect when someone has disappeared for three weeks, the rate of stranger abduction goes way up. Any stats to support this?

Does anyone know if LE has looked at adults known to Dylan in the area? Besides his father?

When LE starts suggesting that maybe Dylan is out of the area, how do we keep the search going? What national channels are there to help get and keep the word out?

Okay- back to lurking and pondering the myriad of places MR could have driven to between 8 PM Sunday and 4 PM Monday, which is still my main train of thought.

:wagon: Rebeccaeee! :welcome4:

Thanks for posting!

 

[FlyerFan28]

Address of house for sale (presumably across the street from MR).
2360 Safley Rd, Bayfield CO 81122
I love Trulia.com!

I'd like to know if that house had any inquiries the day DR went missing.

 

[IHAVENOCLUE]

Wonder what dad bought at Walmart?

:wagon: Gleigh! :welcome:

I wonder what was bought at Walmart, too!:seeya:

 

[tamild]

Thanks Catwhiskers...

Great photos in this StGeorgeUtah.com article!:seeya:

I agree! Looking at the intersection right in front of the house makes me wonder...could Dylan have been waiting in the driveway for his dad, maybe stepping out in the road looking for signs of him coming, when someone rolled up to that intersection and noticed him?

 

[rebeccaeee]

In addition to Jan's link, if you're a stats junkie or merely curious, you might like reading the Bureau of Justice Statistics (I think it's www.bjs.gov, on my phone right now so can't add link). That bureau collects and organizes the FBI's UCR data and other sources like private research funded by the NIJ ( National Institute of Justice). I could get lost for days sometimes reading that data.

Yes- I'm a librarian by trade and a stats junkie by default. Thanks for the links.

 

[Eileen730]

You know, after re-reading those stats, it occurred to me that those stats are only for cases that have been solved. We have no clue who perpetrated thousands of cold cases. It's entirely possible that RSO are responsible for a large number of unsolved abductions, which makes sense if you figure an RSO is a more experienced perp than someone who is merely an acquaintance of the child (ie, more likely a repeat offender).

But if you go back and look especially the cases here on Websleuths most of the unsolved are cases where the person or child was last seen with a loved one or had an argumant with someone close to them. They are usually cases of Moms with their children and the child goes missing and they say someone came in and took the child or they were at the playgound and someone took her or him then we have husbands that fight or are unhappy with the wife and that woman is never seen or found.

As I see it the cases where a stranger did it are the ones where the victims are found. Loved ones hide the bodies better Strangers dont go to all the trouble.
Most found in the woods off the road.

All JMO

 

[beach]

Mod Request

I need your help. lol Tricia has been swamped with other duties and cases recently and she has not had a chance to familiarize herself with all the facts concerning Dylan's case. And though I've been reading and feel pretty much up to date, I don't trust myself as well as many of you who have kept up since the very beginning.

The last half-hour of Tricia's radio show tonight will be dedicated to Dylan's case. Marc Klass will be joining her on that discussion. I need to provide a synopsis so Tricia will be up-to-date and can ask Marc for his input/opinions on the most pertinent matters. Don't post your questions for Tricia & Mark here - We will do that later and much closer to show time. However, you can help me with the following:

[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=8615214&postcount=5"]Is Mysticrose's timeline (linked here) pretty much up to date? [/ame] Is there anything that needs to be added? For instance, I know Dylan called his mom after he landed at the airport, but I am not sure of the exact time of that last text.

Please let me know & post anything else that you guys feel is relevant and important that Tricia needs to be aware of before her interview. I need to put this together for her by 3:00p central time. I was on here all day & night yesterday and I have a few personal things I MUST take care of today, so I will be jumping in and out.

You guys are the BEST and I am SO appreciative of any help y'all can give me on this!


Also, I know of a poster who has done some excellent sleuthing on the properties that we have been confused about. I am going to let her post it herself. I think you guys will be very impressed and it will clear up a lot of the confusion.

Thanks again SO MUCH for your help. You can post it in singular posts or even better, if you guys can make a list, then I can "marry" the info together in one doc for Tricia's review. Any help is appreciated.

:blowkiss:

PLEASE BUMP THIS AS NEEDED SO OTHERS CAN HELP THAT MAY HAVE MISSED MY REQUEST.

 

[Tennlyn]

Authorities say Dylan could still be found alive. Saturday marked 20 days since Dylan was last seen.

"We are looking for Dylan," said Lieutenant Ed Phippen, a La Plata County Sheriff's Office investigator. "We are not looking for Dylan in the past tense. We want to find Dylan and return him to his family."

http://www.daily-times.com/ci_22155577/volunteers-search-clues-dylan-redwine-case.html

If Dylan is alive -

who has him
where is he

that means

a family member is involved in his disappeance
an acquaintance has him
a complete stranger abducted him

Dylan has been missing 21 day, what has changed to have this LE spokesperson be so hopeful? He did not even mention a criminal investigation, etc. I also want to have Dylan found alive and well but I can't for some reason...

Thoughts?

I contemplated this as I lay awake around 4:30 am.

I'd love to think friends somehow managed this, but I don't think they could keep it up for more than a week. JMO

Dad? Maybe he has a friend keeping Dylan hidden. I rolled that one around in my brain quite a bit, but then ruled it out simply because Dad has fallen into the past tense so much when speaking of Dylan. If he knew that Dylan is alive and well, I just don't see him sounding so much like he believes Dylan is gone. MOO

An acquaintance or stranger. Possible, but by this time I would hope that LE would have confirmed that Dylan was in fact at Dad's house Sunday night, etc. kwim?

Anyway...I'd love to believe Dylan is alive somewhere. I just can't seem to figure it out with the limited info we have. Come on, LE, was Dylan at Dad's or not?!

All just my rambling thoughts...

 

[Eileen730]

I'm guessing it is a lot easier to know when a relative kidnapped a child (there are only so many relatives, only so many of them will have any kind of motive, so there's a small suspect pool.) If it's a stranger... you have a really large suspect pool and now it's like finding a needle in a haystack.

I think its harder to prove!
Evidence is harder t obtain.
No strange fingerprints hairs tire tracks etc.
Esp if ya live together.

Just my thoughts!

 

[SCHMAE]

IMO, this is typical LE speak and rarely pans out. And I mean extremely rare.

While I know we all hope LE is correct in searching for a present tense Dylan, it's probable he is using that language to comfort the family and not cause distress.
Miracles do happen, Jaycee Duggard , Elizabeth Smart, they DO happen ! But reality and history are not on Dylans' side at this time.

eternally hopeful.

 

[PaulR]

I think its harder to prove!
Evidence is harder t obtain.
No strange fingerprints hairs tire tracks etc.
Esp if ya live together.

Just my thoughts!

Good thoughts. I found a paper that suggests otherwise:
http://www.policeforum.org/library/homicide/Homicide%20Clearance%20Rates%20-%20Model.pdf

A study of San Diego homicide trends between 1970 and 1980 (Gilbert, 1983) identified a marked increase among stranger-to-stranger homicides. While the proportion of acquaintance homicides decreased from 67 percent of all homicide cases in 1970 to 34 per-cent in 1980, the rate of felony homicides, specifically robbery-related homicides, in-creased significantly. The study concluded that the decline of homicide clearance rates can be attributed to the increase in stranger-to-stranger homicides.

 

[Linda7NJ]

Good morning or afternoon or evening to all!

When I follow a case closely here, I invariably dream about the missing person or child. Last night, I dreamed about Dylan. He was living in an mine shaft, but it looked like the inside of a house. He was just sitting there watching tv. I could see him, but he couldn't see or hear me. It was an upsetting dream because he was all alone, and I couldn't do anything to help him. :frown:

I'm not claiming any psychic abilities AT ALL, but this dream has me wondering about possible abandoned mines in the area. Could he have left on his own and fallen down a mine shaft? Just thought I'd throw this out there.

Odd isn't it? I usually dream about the child,in the cases, I follow too. The one I had in this one was he was off fishing with my kid, I'm in New Jersey!

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I found this article on the FBI website. I only copied a bit of it - the article has more information.

Child Abductions
Known Relationships Are the Greater Danger

A majority (68 percent) of the child abduction cases the FBI’s Child Abduction Rapid Deployment (CARD) team has assisted in has resulted in the identification of an offender who had a relationship with the child victim.3 Moreover, an RSO was involved in only 10 percent of the investigations, 5 percent of who knew the victim.

In FY 2009, 63 percent of child abduction cases involved an offender known to the victim; only 1 percent were RSOs.4 In FY 2010, 70 percent of child abduction cases resulted in the identification of an offender who had a known relationship with the victim; less than 1 percent of the abductors were RSOs.5


http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/law-enforcement-bulletin/august-2011/crimes-against-children-spotlight

Are these children who were abducted and then found murdered? I havent read the link yet but I will.

Most children who are abducted are due to custody issues with one of the non custodial parents not having a right to see the child but the vast majority of those children are found alive and returned to the rightful parent.

Now those who have been abducted and then found dead only 14% out of 775 child abduction/murder cases in a lengthy case study involved a parent.

The percentage of those who took the children that were found murdered ran pretty much neck and neck from 44% stranger to 42% of them knew the perpretrator even on a casual aquaintance basis.

I have put the link up before but I will find it and link it again.

Another problem I see with statistics is we have sooo many missing minors in our country that have been written off as runaways but are never found. I tend to think a lot of strangers could be abducting these vulnerable minors and getting away with it. It just makes logical sense to me. Just look at how many attempted abductions we read about so often. It is happening all across the country and imo if they dont succeed the first time they will try again like AGT did when he successfully kidnapped and murdered Sierra Lamar.

The case study in the link Ive mention were 775 cases where the child had been found murdered and the perpretrator and relationship or no relationship was a known.

ETA: Research study

In this first research project, published in 1997, researchers reviewed more than 600 child abduction murder cases across the United States, then interviewed the investigating detectives. This data provided law enforcement valuable insight into what investigative techniques tend to be most productive.

Now the Attorney General’s Office has released a follow-up study, including 175 additional solved cases. The additional cases generally reflect and support the findings in the original report with several significant and definite differences:

With more killers identified, researchers found threat that the killer will be a friend or acquaintance is nearly equal to that of a stranger.

The probability that the killer’s name will come up during the first week of the investigation has decreased.

The use of by killers as a trigger to murder has increased.

Key findings:
In 74 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child murder victim was female and the average age was 11 years old.

In 44 percent of the cases studied, the victims and killers were strangers, but in 42 percent of the cases, the victims and killers were friends or acquaintances.

Only about 14 percent of the cases studied involved parents or intimates killing the child.

Almost two-thirds of the killers in these cases have prior arrests for violent crimes, with slightly more than half of those prior crimes committed against children.

The primary motive for the child abduction killer in the cases studied was sexual assault.

In nearly 60 percent of the cases studied, more than two hours passed between the time someone realized the child was missing and the time police were notified.

In 76 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child was dead within three hours of the abduction–and in 88.5 percent of the cases the child was dead within 24 hours.


http://www.atg.wa.gov/ChildAbductionResearch.aspx


IMO

 

[cluciano63]

What could be Dad's end game if he has Dylan hidden away? I can't figure out a way for it to ever end, if this were the case. He can't blame Mom; it is known he made it safely from her care to his.

 

[Darcyline]

Some of the things people find suspicious or "evidence" in this case make me feel self-conscious. Like, leaving a dish in the sink or not making your bed. I have totally NEVER done either of those, of course and especially not every day
If a crime ever happens in my house or with my family my dirty dishes in the sink or unmade bed are NOT proof-they just let you know I can be a slob!

Dishes for me are usually done after dinner and I rarely make my bed because no one sees it and I frankly don't care if my sheets are a little ruffled when I climb into bed every night.

 

[PaulR]

What could be Dad's end game if he has Dylan hidden away? I can't figure out a way for it to ever end, if this were the case. He can't blame Mom; it is known he made it safely from her care to his.

I think that's the biggest problem with the "MR has Dylan hidden away" thesis.

Letting DR 'go' would not help MR. Even if LE couldn't prove he had anything to do with it, there would be a good chance that he'd lose visitation rights or have them "supervised" from now on.

Running away with DR? Dylan is not a baby; he's 13. He may love his father but it's also apparent that he has a good relationship with the rest of his family and would not want to hide out in Mexico somewhere with dad.

 

[Eileen730]

I contemplated this as I lay awake around 4:30 am.

I'd love to think friends somehow managed this, but I don't think they could keep it up for more than a week. JMO

Dad? Maybe he has a friend keeping Dylan hidden. I rolled that one around in my brain quite a bit, but then ruled it out simply because Dad has fallen into the past tense so much when speaking of Dylan. If he knew that Dylan is alive and well, I just don't see him sounding so much like he believes Dylan is gone. MOO

An acquaintance or stranger. Possible, but by this time I would hope that LE would have confirmed that Dylan was in fact at Dad's house Sunday night, etc. kwim?

Anyway...I'd love to believe Dylan is alive somewhere. I just can't seem to figure it out with the limited info we have. Come on, LE, was Dylan at Dad's or not?!

All just my rambling thoughts...

Ya know I dont think a friend would want to pay the consequences of Kidnapping a child.
And I agree I hope Dylan is alive out there also but I hate to say this but I dont believe he is.

 

[SCHMAE]

What could be Dad's end game if he has Dylan hidden away? I can't figure out a way for it to ever end, if this were the case. He can't blame Mom; it is known he made it safely from her care to his.

I see your point. IF MR has stowed Dylan away, and successfully from the looks of it, what next? Keep him stowed away forever? Go grab him and move to Tahiti in 6 months? What would be the point of stowing him away if not to be with him and live with him and how could MR disappear to go live with his son and not be noticed ?

Because almost always , if not always, when a parent takes their own child, they TOO are missing with the child in an attempt to start a new life without the other parent.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

What could be Dad's end game if he has Dylan hidden away? I can't figure out a way for it to ever end, if this were the case. He can't blame Mom; it is known he made it safely from her care to his.

Why would he do that though? Dylan hasnt lived with him since the divorce in 2005 even though he had shared custody because at that time they both lived close to each other.

He had visitation rights already since Dylan was just there to visit him in September and the Judge continued those visitation rights and that is why Dylan was back to visit his dad.

I really dont understand what his beef would be. This wasnt something out of the norm......... like Dylan had been living with him all along and then Elaine talked the Judge into letting Dylan move from his dad's to where she lived.

IMO