RSBM, BBM.
You are right to say that the evidence presented at the preliminary hearing was sufficient to bind BM over for trial, and that the judge did not find it sufficient to hold BM without bail. But the latter decision does not signify that the evidence was insufficient to convict BM, beyond a reasonable doubt.
The standard for finding "probable cause" in this context is not well defined anywhere, especially in Colorado. Most experts have a general sense that it's a preponderance of the evidence. But regardless how vague the standard is, no judge would bind a defendant over for trial if he did not believe it was possible for a reasonable, impartial jury to convict the defendant based on the evidence presented, if they found it credible and drew the inferences the prosecution advocated.
A
ccording to Jan Wondra of the Ark Valley Voice, that's what Judge Murphy actually said: "Is it possible that he would be convicted? Yes."
It's also true, however, that he said immediately thereafter, "But is it likely that he would be convicted? I find no." Judge Murphy could only deny BM bail if he found there was a fair likelihood that the defendant would be convicted at a trial applying highest standard proof - beyond a reasonable doubt. He granted bail because he could not make this finding.
But then, significantly IMO, he explained why he believed it was unlikely.
"Of the three possible scenarios, the judge said that it was possible that either Morphew murdered her and disposed of the body, or that someone unknown took Suzanne and murdered her.
'I think it is unlikely that she intentionally disappeared.'
He pointed out that “I find the evidence and presence of unknown DNA in the glove box of her car, and that this person has committed other sexual assaults to be important.” He noted that the DNA found is linked to three other sexual assaults; two in Arizona and one in Chicago.
“
This is particularly significant...”
Jeff Lindsey had attempted to present the evidence at the prelim without using the experts who did the analysis, and E&N were able to sow confusion and mislead the judge on this point.
In fact, the DNA was not from a person who has committed other sexual assaults and who would be a plausible alternative suspect.
Instead, it was a low-grade partial match to that person's DNA, a very different thing with different significance.
IMO, but for this error by an inadequately prepared prosecution (compounded by the judge allowing the defense to run out the clock, effectively precluding an opportunity for rebuttal), Judge M would have denied bail.