I've been reading this forum since thread #1 and there has been a gamut of speculation about every detail of what happened. There are two sayings, that I keep coming back to: 1) take the path of least resistance, and 2) when you hear hoof prints, look for a horse, not a unicorn.
I do think this was a rage killing targeting either K or M and I lean towards K because she was just in town for the weekend. The killer may have known that K had broken up with her boyfriend and saw his opportunity to hit on her or ask her out. It's possible that the killer was harassing K and M earlier that night and she turned him down in a way that either made him feel ashamed or embarrassed and that was she he made the decision to get back at her. I think the reason K and M tried calling K's ex-boyfriend so many times is perhaps because K's unwelcome suitor may know K's boyfriend.
However, I think as rage goes, it is usually not well-planned out, but is more reactive and vengeful. I think the killer made entry into the house through the unlocked sliding glass door (hence the "path or least resistance" and "horse, not unicorn" -- i.e. climbing up the the 3rd floor to enter). I think E either heard the sliding glass door open and got up to see who it was or he got up to go to the bathroom which is off the common area (remember, they had all been at parties/drinking). These are reasonable reasons for why he may have gotten up (think horse, not unicorn).
I think the guy had made it to the bedroom door by the time E heard the noise and decided to get up to check out who was coming in the sliding glass door. I think E surprised the guy and he seriously wounded E with the first stab or two. I think this activity woke up X and the guy had to stab her because she could disrupt his plan to kill his target. She didn't have time to get out of bed, but was awake enough to have defense wounds. I think he stabbed her to death and then went back to stab E to death.
Then, with E and X out of the way, I think he went upstairs to find his target. However, I think he was surprised a second time, when he found K and M sleeping in the same bed. He couldn't kill one without killing them both because the second one would wake up. I think finding them together foiled his plan which may have been to rape and then, kill his target and this further enraged him. I think he stabbed one girl and immediately stabbed the other one and then went back and forth stabbing them in a rage until they were dead. We know that at least one of the two girls was intoxicated and they were both asleep.
I don't think his plan was to kill everyone in the house because he was acting out of rage. I think he wanted to kill one girl, and had to kill the other 3 because they were in his way and could prevent him from getting to his target. And so, they unfortunately were collateral damage. I don't even think he went to the first floor at all because he had killed his targeted victim. The two girls on the first floor weren't in his way and the killer probably thought they were asleep or he may not have even known they were in the house.
I think the killer either put Murphy the dog in a closet, or outside the bedroom door or in one of the empty bedrooms BEFORE he killed the girls.
After carrying out these murders, I have no doubt that his shoes and clothes were covered in blood as would be the knife. But what he may have done next is where I am conflicted. I think he was smart enough to know that he couldn't leave a bloody trail going out of the house and straight to him. So, I do think that he tried to clean himself up in the kitchen by washing blood off of his face and arms and hands and wiping blood off his shoes. I also think he washed the knife so that it's not dripping blood as he leaves the house. I think he was carrying a backpack as most students do and he put the knife in the backpack along with his coat that may have had blood all over it. That leaves blood on his shirt and jeans. Cotton is very absorbent and it likely absorbed the blood and thus, he wasn't dripping blood.
I think he left through the sliding glass door which is the path of least resistance and the obvious exit (think horse, not unicorn). He probably went back to where he lived and put the bloody clothes straight into the washer. That late at night, it is probable that no one was around to see him doing laundry.
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I don't tend to think that any of the other things surrounding this case - the 3 AM 911 call, the previous cases that have similarities, the skinned dog, etc are related to this case and are likely coincidental.
So this is my two cents again.
I really liked your post: keeping close to all facts known, logical.
I agree with a lot you said, but i disagree/getting confused with the killer's escape part.
I agree that the trigger of this was K. Seems logical, she already left the town for good, certainly a lot of people were aware of her plans to relocate across the country and she never made secret out of it (her ad on social media to sale her old car, for example, clearly states she is going away and not planning to return). She did not suppose to be in Moscow, Idaho on that night. She came to show her friends the car she just bought so a lot of people must be taken by suprise when they saw her as she walked in Corner Club that night.
Perhaps, that surprise gave steength to K. admirer to try his luck that night. Only to be turned down, as obviously that admirer were not with the girls when they went to buy food later on. I agree with this.
At the sane time, K. and M. went to a place with much higher risk to meet and attract someone who later would atrack and kill. The trigger for this attack must be somewhere there.
And that explains why the investigation focused on K. and M. movings and whereabouts that night. Besides, X. and E. were in much safer environment that evening, at a party with people most of whom they knew very well.
I am not sure the guy is a student, his actions speak of more mature person, for example someone who can handle own rage at front of others but release it in full with vulnerable. This points to mature person with certain level of responsibilities in their job. They cannot handle rejection in either general or in that period of time in their lives.
I agree that he wanted to teach K. a lesson that night for whatever reason he thought justifies his perception of his right to teach and punish others.
He must have been somehow familiar with the complicated layout of the house prior to attack. If he had long term crush on K. as you suggest and I agree with, then he could have watch the house for a while, not necessarily planning to attack, just to watch her. He might have been on one or two parties there, as he would have tried to get close to her. Or he was in the house in other function - delivery, maintenance jobs, property management, street maintenance. You would never get to that neighbourhood if you do not have/want to go there.
With revelation that both girls died in the same bed, the motives of the killer as we discussed them prior to knowing this, need to be altered, too. I agree with your explanation how the attack has happened and why 4 young innocent people died that night.
He may did not plan to kill 4 people.
But, he had a military type knife with him, prepared to be used. And that points towards planning to hurt mission. Planning to kill, if the need to or opportunity arises. If he was just planning to teach K. a lesson, not killing others, he would have left the house the moment when he heard E. or X. coming out or getting disturbed. But the killer did not hesitate to attack, kill and carry on with killings. He was mentally, psychically and instrumentally prepared to kill.
That points to much better organised, focused, merciless person. Person whose basic instinct is to attack and kill, not just to punish. That is another reason why I am not sure he is a student, but more mature man. For some reasons I think he is 32, plus minus 1 year. Do not ask me why. My perception of mature physically but still immature mentally man.
The escape route is a story on itself. He was dripping blood. Even if he washed his boots and clothes somewhere in the house, he must have dripping blood and blooded water whenever he went.
What puzzles me if why the surviving girls did not notice blood drops on the second floor, there must have been a lot, leading to the kitchen sliding door.
There must have been blood around the door of E. and X. bedroom, where the killings started. That was also not spotted, so someone would go ahead and immediatelly call the police, not friends? Strange.
Handling the dog and silencing him without harming is also a telling story. I had a dog myself, they sense when their owner is in danger and would wake up half of the city barking. It takes a lot of knowledge and experience to handle the dog not to bark when their owner and other people are attacked. Dogs sense blood, it is in their instincts. So, the killer may have a dog himself or he used to have dog, he may be training dogs, working in dog centers or in vets surgery. Thinking of how delivery and dog might be linked, how about delivery of dogs food? Where K did order the dog food from?