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I used to work in law enforcement, and I can tell you that people often do things that completely defy common sense; there is no road map to human behavior - it is utterly unpredictable! So many people assume that there's no way a young woman would walk away from friends alone late at night in the winter. And yet, I've seen many that have done exactly this! The biggest problem with inflexible thinking is that if you feel like an investigation should only go in one direction, you will never get to the truth - to the heart of what really happened. The best thing to do is to keep an open mind; second to this is to try and put yourself in the victim's or subject's shoes; think about what you would do in their situation. And remember, when you add in heightened emotions, relationship history, the influence of friends and family, alcohol, drugs, etc it can all become just a huge mess... I've completed over 5,000 investigations, and, up until I left LE I would be surprised by some aspect of the inquiry - on a regular basis! Lastly, I'd caution you against jumping into conspiracy theory; I've found that conspiracies are a product of a misunderstanding of facts, or else lazy thinking.
Excellent post.
In trying to understanding a victim's behavior and what happened, I really do try and put myself in the victim's or subject's shoes, their situation and emotional state- with what I can learn of their relationship history, influence of friends and family, alcohol, drugs, etc (using your words here, thanks). And their age. The worst way to look at a situation is thinking what would I do in this situation, the choices that I would make.
Your point about an open mind is right on as well. One thing that I do after a case is wrapped up is go back to my posts and review what I have said, and critique whether I was open minded, accurate, and if my posts had value.