MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #6

[Rocky1]

I also think it is important to start with the basics. She is a runner. She is attacked on a regular running route that she ran. So that leaves it optional for someone who saw her regularly by location on the route or someone who had something in common with her such as exercising on the road regularly also. That is how all this could have started if he obsessed with her, came across her, talked with her, saw her, etc. And it explains why he would be outside and know of that path, if he exercised on that road as well.

Right. That's why to me the bike rider makes sense. I can't think of one reason why it wouldn't. Rode the road before and saw her. lives local enough if he's riding. Maybe used the path to relieve himself before, so knew it, knew she was out that day because he rode past her, easy to hide the bike, and a lot faster get away without too many thinking twice about seeing a bike, and if not knowing better, even if he had a backpack to put her clothing etc in (if he took them) wouldn't think enough about it to lock it in their brain to remember.
Up until they find out for sure, I am open minded to any scenario, because it could have happened anyway, and I could be totally off.

 

[Kickoff61]

After looking at those google maps of the path and piecing it together, IMO that is the common factor in this.

 

[Kickoff61]

Right. That's why to me the bike rider makes sense. I can't think of one reason why it wouldn't. Rode the road before and saw her. lives local enough if he's riding. Maybe used the path to relieve himself before, so knew it, knew she was out that day because he rode past her, easy to hide the bike, and a lot faster get away without too many thinking twice about seeing a bike, and if not knowing better, even if he had a backpack to put her clothing etc in (if he took them) wouldn't think enough about it to lock it in their brain to remember.
Up until they find out for sure, I am open minded to any scenario, because it could have happened anyway, and I could be totally off.

Well, your theory does make sense. I have always considered that as well, since you brought it up.

 

[ThinkHard]

Yes I do believe sociopath who would be least suspected and returned to regular life. However this person is experienced enough to leave lack of evidence behind to have this be unsolved still.

I'm not so sure anything about it speaks to experience. I don't think that can be said just because he hasn't been caught. They have his DNA...but if someone hasn't raised a red flag yet...or they haven't found the connection to VM yet, like friend of a friend.....then they wouldn't be running the DNA against him.

For all we know once they have him they might have plenty of evidence....but they are just missing the link btw the evidence and the perp.

So far to me that says he's been lucky he hasn't fallen under suspicion, not that he's experienced. Just one opinion of course.

 

[ThinkHard]

The State Police were not local. They were brought in from 3 different barracks. Holden, (C6) Sturbridge,(C5A) and Leominster (C4) With so many cops and so much confusion, I can see that mistake happening rather easily.
Who said she was going to the store at 12? I know there was a lot of discussion about that here, but now the thinking is that she never was there in the first place. Where did the 12 Oclock come from? I'd like the link.

Holden states troopers would know the difference, half their kids go to Wachusett HS. (Figure of speach , not literally)

12 o'clock came from articles and the suspicion is that info was told to LE by her parents....because who else would suggest that she had been there then in the first place. This was also very early when it was still likely in the hands of local LE.

You may disagree on the relevance here...but I think this is actually a tid bit that could in fact be significant.

What I do not think happened was LE mixing up the two times and locations. And I think to dismiss that info would be a mistake.

If you would like to of course that's your choice. But if others would like to discuss its significance, I would just kindly ask that you allow us to do so.

 

[Kickoff61]

I'm not so sure anything about it speaks to experience. I don't think that can be said just because he hasn't been caught. They have his DNA...but if someone hasn't raised a red flag yet...or they haven't found the connection to VM yet, like friend of a friend.....then they wouldn't be running the DNA against him.

For all we know once they have him they might have plenty of evidence....but they are just missing the link btw the evidence and the perp.

So far to me that says he's been lucky he hasn't fallen under suspicion, not that he's experienced. Just one opinion of course.

It is all about evidence at the scene. And covering his tracks. Not only 'suspicion' of people.

 

[Kickoff61]

I'm not so sure anything about it speaks to experience. I don't think that can be said just because he hasn't been caught. They have his DNA...but if someone hasn't raised a red flag yet...or they haven't found the connection to VM yet, like friend of a friend.....then they wouldn't be running the DNA against him.

For all we know once they have him they might have plenty of evidence....but they are just missing the link btw the evidence and the perp.

So far to me that says he's been lucky he hasn't fallen under suspicion, not that he's experienced. Just one opinion of course.

Yes, it is also possible they do have plenty of evidence and missing a piece. But I in no way feel this is an inexperienced crime JMO

 

[Kickoff61]

We all have very strong opinions here. So everyone is entitled to their opinion. Rocky1 thinks bike, you think possible secret friend/relationship, I have my opinions I have stated. We all may be wrong, one of us may be right. There is just too little known, so it is all speculation. I try to speculate on the very few facts that are known, but is still speculation.

 

[Kickoff61]

What I am saying is , there is so much 'unknown' there is not a lot to say someone is absolutely wrong. Some things may seem more hard to believe than other things. Hopefully they will make headway soon. I think it is terrible this man is free right now.

 

[ForensicMass]

(Apart from tire impressions) In general: When you saw it, did you think it was possible a vehicle could drive all the way in to the location around the corner to be hidden as well?

No, there was a large downed tree across the path approx 75' in from the road

 

[ForensicMass]

I can't answer that because I didn't notice the gully until the fall when the foliage had dropped, and it had rained since the summer, so even if there was, that wouldn't mean there was in August. It was an exceptionally dry Summer.
You made a good point about why he would have stayed on the path though. If there was water in the gully, that could have been the reason.

The gully was dry during my recent visit and based on the water table this past August, I'm certain it was dry. The gully is not really a natural formation- more it is created by the filling and raising of the cart path and BSR. That particular spot might be a bit low, but not that low.

 

[ThinkHard]

I think it is safe to say by the photos and descriptions of this path, it is unlikely an outsider would know of it in such a way. Also, it seems likely this person has been on that path before. That would indicate someone in the area who could be an avid, walker, biker, runner or hiker.

Perhaps but that path doesn't go anywhere except to someone's house. And it is private land. So even if they did those activities....they wouldn't have been doing them there.

 

[Kickoff61]

Perhaps but that path doesn't go anywhere except to someone's house. And it is private land. So even if they did those activities....they wouldn't have been doing them there.

Correct. I mean exercise on BSR to know of the path.

 

[Kickoff61]

No, there was a large downed tree across the path approx 75' in from the road

Ok. I see.

 

[ForensicMass]

It seems more likely the sicko had to be waiting at the path area OR as said before, this did in fact happen elsewhere on her route and she was brought there.

I do not believe the 1,000 tips were all from BSR and there could be plenty from other areas on her route. If that were the case, this did not happen in the beginning of her route, but made to look that way. But again, just speculated scenarios because so little is known about what they discovered.

After just driving her running routes and stopping and looking at multiple areas, there really aren't any better areas for an attempted abduction. And, moreover after seeing where this place is (it really is not that remote) in my mind there is next to ZERO chance she was brought there and dumped. If she was dead in a car, he would have got out of dodge and dumped her where he wouldn't be seen doing so. <modsnip> Far more important to the killer, who has just killed someone, is NOT BEING SEEN IN THE AREA. Versus risking being seen for the purposes of trying to stage a scene or confuse LE. That theory makes absolutely no sense to me. I very strongly believe This was the murder site or within hundreds of feet of it, at most. She was not "brought back". <modsnip>

 

[ThinkHard]

To know a path is there, in the summer with the foliage, you have to wait till you are 90 degrees to it from the road then look straight in to know it is a path. And that was after LE had been in and out of there. I can imagine it was tougher before that.
LE would have known there is no hiking trail, or a pond to fish, or a house there, so I know I am repeating myself, but, if they rode past an SUV that day, my bets are they would have stopped and ran the plate. I am certainly not knocking Princeton PD in any way, but most small town police in general have more time on their hands than cities, so they are looking for anything to do.
I'm not saying they rode down that road at that time, and I am not saying that there wasn't an SUV spotted, what I am saying is, If this guy is local enough to know that path, then he's smart enough to know that small town cops would check his SUV out, if he parked it there.
So either it wasn't his, or, it wasn't there for long, or he took one big stupid chance.

Being from the next town over, and knowing cops in both towns, I disagree. I may be wrong, but having grown up here, knowing people personally, and adding in that Princeton PD only has maybe 2 cars out on patrol on a Sunday...

A car parked there only a short period of time, in my opinion I just don't feel would garner the attention you expect....overnight or even after dark....would be a different story.

 

[ForensicMass]

I really do not believe there was confusion btw the store and the mountain barn.

That really doesn't add up to me at all. While I know people HERE in this thread have mixed them up...locals and especially the police certainly would not have!

Additionally she was supposedly at the store around 12. The ping was at 2:25 from the Mnt Barn.

She also supposedly went to the store before setting out on her run.

To me this says she went somewhere and said it was the store sometime around noon....then came home....then set out again....then the ping came.

So I really really don't see how they would have confused those two things....I think her family would know the difference btw her taking the car on an errand before her run and the ping that came on her run....and I think locals and local LE know the difference btw the market and the Mnt barn.

Very good post

 

[ForensicMass]

By the looks of it when I went by, and from the video here, it looks like he could climb out of that gully after the guardrail, and on to the path without going over it. Then he could have ambushed her right there on the path.
Maybe FM got a better look at that when he was there.

Yes, there is a clear path down into the July where the guardrail and cart path meet. He would be climbing out of the gully onto the carts path right where it meets the road.

 

[Kickoff61]

After just driving her running routes and stopping and looking at multiple areas, there really aren't any better areas for an attempted abduction. And, moreover after seeing where this place is (it really is not that remote) in my mind there is next to ZERO chance she was brought there and dumped. If she was dead in a car, he would have got out of dodge and dumped her where he wouldn't be seen doing so. <modsnip> Far more important to the killer, who has just killed someone, is NOT BEING SEEN IN THE AREA. Versus risking being seen for the purposes of trying to stage a scene or confuse LE. That theory makes absolutely no sense to me. I very strongly believe This was the murder site or within hundreds of feet of it, at most. She was not "brought back". <modsnip>

<modsnip> Never did I say 'brought back'. That sounds like attacked there, brought away and back. I did not say that. What I did say , is it is no less risky to park a vehicle there to be seen with a driveway right across the street for the entire time, then to have this happen somewhere else on the route and then left there (with vehicle there less time). OR someone doing it there and returning briefly with vehicle. You can think ridiculous all you want, but I have yet to fit the vehicle there to be seen near that driveway nearby and traffic for the entire, time, struggle, killing, fire and cover up. We will have to disagree.<modsnip>

 

[ForensicMass]

Why would there be mold on the tree?

It's just a natural phenomenon that occurs, especially on dead trees. Molds are everywhere. Not just in your sink or basement. They're anywhere they can grow.