Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #38

[Davieson]

The final piece is only likely to be a remains imo and if it's unobtainable?

Even a body or parts of may not implicate CB.
All a body might do is confirm death.

 

[mrjitty]

IMO until such a time as it's shown that they simply decided to pin the MM disappearance on CB for no other reason than someone told them he did it, I will continue to give the German police and prosecutor the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing. I really don't see any point in criticising them from a position of ignorance though of course everyone's entitled to voice an opinion even an uninformed one.

I agree the institution deserves the benefit of the doubt, that they have it right.

However I do believe we can make some inferences as to progress on the MM case now fully 3 years since the public appeal have one by. A couple of things stick out to me:

1. I am sceptical HCW would bring his 5 charges if his murder case was anywhere near to ready. He has pretty much confirmed we shouldn't expect action on MM anytime soon. I've read that it's all 9D chess to ramp up the pressure but in my opinion prosecutors don't do that. They bring the most serious crimes they can when they are ready and don't hold murder charges in reserve for some other day.

2. After 3 years, it's hard to know what they could be working on. The reservoir search seemed to come from a new tip. So there is always a chance of a breakthrough, but its getting hard to believe they are somehow calmly working through a mountain of data/info

My inference is they haven't made the breakthrough they hoped for, for whatever reason.

 

[RichardKimble]

Even a body or parts of may not implicate CB.
All a body might do is confirm death.

I agree ,it would also need something linked to CB along side any remains.

 

[Consider Dudley]

I agree the institution deserves the benefit of the doubt, that they have it right.

However I do believe we can make some inferences as to progress on the MM case now fully 3 years since the public appeal have one by. A couple of things stick out to me:

1. I am sceptical HCW would bring his 5 charges if his murder case was anywhere near to ready. He has pretty much confirmed we shouldn't expect action on MM anytime soon. I've read that it's all 9D chess to ramp up the pressure but in my opinion prosecutors don't do that. They bring the most serious crimes they can when they are ready and don't hold murder charges in reserve for some other day.

2. After 3 years, it's hard to know what they could be working on. The reservoir search seemed to come from a new tip. So there is always a chance of a breakthrough, but its getting hard to believe they are somehow calmly working through a mountain of data/info

My inference is they haven't made the breakthrough they hoped for, for whatever reason.

Progress has obviously been slow and we are all eager for there to be some resolution, or at least most of us are. I am disappointed that three years on the Germans still don't feel able to bring charges against their prime suspect after seemingly being close to doing so three years ago. I do wish sometimes there had never been such an announcement but then what would we have had to discuss for the last three years? My hope is that by going public in such a way further useful evidence has fallen from the tree. One day we may know whether or not this is the case, meantime I am not holding my breath.

 

[mrjitty]

Progress has obviously been slow and we are all eager for there to be some resolution, or at least most of us are. I am disappointed that three years on the Germans still don't feel able to bring charges against their prime suspect after seemingly being close to doing so three years ago. I do wish sometimes there had never been such an announcement but then what would we have had to discuss for the last three years? My hope is that by going public in such a way further useful evidence has fallen from the tree. One day we may know whether or not this is the case, meantime I am not holding my breath.

BIB

This is why I wonder if something went wrong.

 

[Okapi]

Progress has obviously been slow and we are all eager for there to be some resolution, or at least most of us are. I am disappointed that three years on the Germans still don't feel able to bring charges against their prime suspect after seemingly being close to doing so three years ago. I do wish sometimes there had never been such an announcement but then what would we have had to discuss for the last three years? My hope is that by going public in such a way further useful evidence has fallen from the tree. One day we may know whether or not this is the case, meantime I am not holding my breath.

Yep. And if there had been no announcement in 2020, there would probably have been all sorts of debates and pressure campaigns from various stakeholders to get some traction with the investigation. So at least we know it hasn’t gone cold.

It’s definitely a frustrating wait but I also don’t automatically assume no news since 2020 means that the current investigation has stalled.

 

[Davieson]

Yep. And if there had been no announcement in 2020, there would probably have been all sorts of debates and pressure campaigns from various stakeholders to get some traction with the investigation. So at least we know it hasn’t gone cold.

It’s definitely a frustrating wait but I also don’t automatically assume no news since 2020 means that the current investigation has stalled.

I do.
3 years ago they had amassed all this circumstantial evidence and believed they had almost got him. A public appeal would clinch it. It didn't and consequently they are no further on.
IMO

 

[Consider Dudley]

BIB

This is why I wonder if something went wrong.

I have googled BIB and looked on the Websleuths thread about acronyms but as it is 4 pages long I have not got the stamina to wade through looking for the answer. Can you advise please?

 

[Lyall0814]

I have googled BIB and looked on the Websleuths thread about acronyms but as it is 4 pages long I have not got the stamina to wade through looking for the answer. Can you advise please?

Bit in bold?

 

[Consider Dudley]

Bit in bold?

thank you!

 

[Okapi]

I’m going to query again the comparison to Peggy K: how can a body assure closure of the case, with no guarantee of useful/perpetrator forensics? (Obviously if remains are confirmed as being MM’s, it proves death and returns her to her family to be laid to rest with dignity).

But how does it then (in this scenario) close the case? If for example there was a brag/confession made to associate/s or even an associate of an associate…saying that MM was killed and the body secreted at xyz…and the location/circumstances match the rumour or match a verbal description of an image/vision of the dumping site…could that suffice as the final jigsaw piece? Could this investigation all hinge on confirmation of a verbal testimony as much as on tangible pictures/vision or the lottery of preserved DNA?

I suppose in a nutshell, could LE be looking for the body or any trace of it to rule in a witness, and therefore, indirectly, the suspect?

My own thoughts.

 

[RichardKimble]

I’m going to query again the comparison to Peggy K: how can a body assure closure of the case, with no guarantee of useful/perpetrator forensics? (Obviously if remains are confirmed as being MM’s, it proves death and returns her to her family to be laid to rest with dignity).

But how does it then (in this scenario) close the case? If for example there was a brag/confession made to associate/s or even an associate of an associate…saying that MM was killed and the body secreted at xyz…and the location/circumstances match the rumour or match a verbal description of an image/vision of the dumping site…could that suffice as the final jigsaw piece? Could this investigation all hinge on confirmation of a verbal testimony as much as on tangible pictures/vision or the lottery of preserved DNA?

I suppose in a nutshell, could LE be looking for the body or any trace of it to rule in a witness, and therefore, indirectly, the suspect?

My own thoughts.

There have been at least 3 sites in Portugal now searched for remains, waste ground in 2014, wells in 2020, the recent ones at the reservoir and probably the one at the allotments in Germany, 3 one could surmise to be linked to CB, now either the two searches one in Germany and the recent one were either from Intel which has proved wrong or after careful analysis of areas known to CB they were focused on this.

If we take your scenario of ruling in a witness who indirectly links to the suspect the opposite must be true, Intel wrong, witness unreliable.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

I agree ,it would also need something linked to CB along side any remains.

As I've already posted, IMO, after all these years, the two "impossibles": find the right location, recover any remains/residual forensics.
They also need the link to CB. IMO the material evidence they say they have may "facilitate" that.
And then the third ("smallest?") impossible...his confession...

 

[RichardKimble]

As I've already posted, IMO, after all these years, the two "impossibles": find the right location, recover any remains.
They also need the link to CB. IMO the material evidence they say they have may "facilitate" that.
And then the third ("smallest?") impossible...his confession...

Then it cannot be stated with any certainty that CB is the killer until or these things are found.
Interestingly it is only ever HCW who says the girl is dead, do the brits or portuguese subscribe to this one wonders?

 

[Mex]

They were quietly doing something yes. Then they announced in June they were certain. So certain did they sound people listening thought charges must be imminent. Then it just turned into tabloid hysteria again, as had happened so many times previously. Nothing has changed since. Even by late July 2020 the ITV documentary had a weary, 'we've seen all this before' tone to it.

So imo they either made a big mistake in June 2020 with the language they used, or the investigation re: MM itself is badly flawed. But you can't broadcast to the world the way they did and not expect criticism when you can't back up your words.

If memory serves me well Lyal, the change in CB's status to prime murder suspect came as a direct result of the emergence of fresh evidence to that effect.
Snip
May 4 2022
Fresh evidence has been found against the prime suspect in the disappearance of MM, a German prosecutor has revealed.

HCW said in an interview on Portuguese television that investigators believed they had found “some facts, some new evidence, not forensic evidence.”

Officials in Faro, Portugal, said last week that CB 44, a convicted rapist, was an arguido, or formal suspect – the first time Portuguese authorities have officially identified a suspect in the case since MM's parents, KM and GM, were declared such in 2007. They were formally cleared of suspicion in 2008.

Madeleine McCann: ‘new evidence’ linked to suspect found, prosecutor says

German prosecutor says investigators are sure Christian Brückner killed three-year-old and have ‘new facts’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Mex]

After the BKA inv, after their appeal, after all this, if not CB, who was?
Really cannot see a different scenario.
With the global exposition and mediatization this case easily gained, the time that has passed with many doubting on BKA work and their conviction is the same time that doesn't bring any other different clue or path. I do not believe BKA hasn't tried the counter-check, counter-arguments, "testing" negation.

In reality the MM case is no different from other missing child cases with evidence regarding persons of interest being checked for elimination purposes as well as case building.

Why is there a prevailing attitude amongst some that the prosecution and BKA have overstepped the mark regarding this person of interest CB who became prime suspect of three international police forces. These opinions have been formed and promulgated without benefit of access to the information available to investigators who have been working the MM case. Alone amongst many previous persons of interest, evidence has not eliminated CB from the inquiry and deserves further investigation for clarification one way or the other.
My opinion

 

[Mex]

But that argument - if not him, who? - has been the reason for so many miscarriages of justice over the years, in all countries. It's dangerous when investigators start thinking that way. We've seen it many times in the UK e.g. the prosecutions of Barry George, Colin Stagg and - imo - Michael Stone.

There is too much evidence that persons of interest - known and unknown - have been eliminated throughout the inquiry into MM's disappearance for any thought to be given to CB's status as prime suspect on the basis of "if not him - who?"

CB merits his status as prime suspect because the checks and balances of supporting evidence demands it.
My opinion

 

[Mex]

We know they managed to secure prosecutions in the other cases they've investigated allegedly involving CB. I've absolutely no idea what they've been doing for six years re: MM.

Did you have any idea what they were doing regarding the cases to which you refer when they were collecting the evidence against CB to bring them to the prosecution stage?

 

[Mex]

The argument goes if the BKA can prove murder then they don't need to go to the route of abduction, which is all very well but it's joining the investigation 10 years after the fact (alleged sort of confession after a beer or three in 2008) is there any sign that the BKA have actually visited Luz to see where the phone call was made, the actual lay of the land, Ocean club complex etc?

I think we would have to wait and see what the charges might be against CB. Abduction could very well be the least amongst them.
My opinion

 

[Mex]

We're all as keen as you are to know what they mean by 'material evidence'. Whatever it is it doesn't seem to have impressed the Braunschweig court though.

I don't think the Braunschweig court had an opinion of that or even on the five cases for which CB was charged. All that was considered was the jurisdiction and the whereabouts of CB's residence.
My opinion