Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[stmichael]

No crime except for the gun on the camera.

How do you definitively know he had an actual gun in that cheap mis-matched revolver holster? Could have been a replica or airsoft used strictly for intimidation and coercion of a 84 year old woman living alone in a dark, secluded neighborhood. No way of telling with the info we were presented and as far as we know there was no discharge of a firearm on the scene.

If he had to draw if encountered by someone he couldn't even get his finger inside the trigger guard with those gloves on. IMO that would be consistent with the cheap thrown-together get up that includes a $15 reflective backpack and a mouth light that transfers saliva.

edit: As pointed out in an earlier post AZ is a constitutional carry state with legal open carry. As long as he wasn't a prohibited person and 21 or over.

 

[connie9030]

Im not sure about that totally. Just because they may not be person on the cam footage, would not necessarily mean no connection. I’m not saying there is, but until it’s confirmed by LE, I wouldn't assume there isn’t. Jmo

Let's say they determine this new letter to be legit (however one comes to that conclusion)....if the family had any seriousness about paying the original ransom (I have no clue how close they were or weren't), and if the bitcoin wallets are traceable, why not pay this new one? You either get valuable info or you don't but then you know who the person is that lied just to get money.

True. It's also possible, if a family member involved, they hired someone to do this.

 

[LRinCA]

DBM - already posted

 

[investigatoroffacts]

I had presumed (maybe wrongly) that this was earlier video footage that they had cut short and now were showing in full...

I really hope so.

 

[Monepone]

So the article says that Carlos stated he was detained because a relative of his called in a tip that said that Carlos' eyes looked like the guy in the video released by the FBI at NG's front door.

So he got swatted by a relative

 

[milkshakedonkey]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021764635175924226

This is the previous post stating two gloves found.

 

[loves2readhistory]

If anyone has worked at large department store (specifically Walmart) please let me know if:

Is there a system to track and examine transactions that occurred at the store? Maybe by checking inventory logs? If we've deduced 3/4 of the suspects outfit is walmart brand. Theoretically could a Tucson based Walmart check for a transaction that contained these items? Then compare timestamp of transaction to camera footage? Or see if it's linked to a specific debit/credit card?

I have seen it done on tv shows
Like “Unforgotten”
So depends on store probably
And your assumption these were bought at same time/same location

 

[Cblewife]

I’ve been wondering the same. If the perp removed it, put it in their pocket thinking it was disabled, but it continued to record since it is triggered by movement… the folks at Google reviewing the recordings would have a rough idea of when it was tossed. But what if it has audio recording also? Maybe recorded conversations or even NGs voice?
Hopeful speculation.

If that could happen, would it still record once removed if it was a wired door bell vs a battery operated one? Our doorbell is wired & if power is out I don't believe it records, however our garage camera is battery & records when the power is out even though we can't view it until our Wi-Fi comes back up.

 

[armchairagatha]

But wouldn't they be busted if the ransom was paid and then they accessed it?

The Guthries' ransom demand is in Bitcoins for a reason

Ransom notes for Savannah Guthrie's mom demanded millions in Bitcoin. Here's why criminals like it.

www.usatoday.com

Says you can’t trace it to an individual. Only to an account.

 

[Lebowski]

wondering now if the perp could have worn two pairs of gloves. like for whatever reason. it could screw any hope of DNA if it's the outer pair we found. otoh, maybe someone who knows gloves could tell us that it's pretty hard to do because of friction or whatever.

 

[cbaymult]

The same guy who didn’t anticipate the door cam and was grabbing shrubs to cover it up.
A-m-a-t-e-u-r.

The shrub pulling made me think “gardener/landscaper”.

Amateur opinion and speculation only

Also the bumblng way he moved, bumping his fist up in strange way. Why not use his gloved fingers to grab camera? Also why he let his self be seen as he went to get weeds.

 

[NothingToSeeHere]

If this were an inside job involving family, and the ransom is an unrelated opportunist, why take her off the property? Could take years to have someone declared dead and get inheritance if that’s motive. If the ransom is related why are they still holding out when the family said they would pay? Nothing makes sense… MOO

Would a family have to wait for someone to be declared dead before selling a home, or is the years-long wait just for things like life insurance?

 

[Cassie P]

In one post someone said it almost looked like it was a guy with a few drinks in him, the way he was just casually strolling then picking up the latanas flowers, then fumbling with the doorbell cam. I chuckled, but it resonated. He does have some sort of casual detachment or abnormal comfort level given the gravity of what he's doing, and it's not in some cold and calculated pro-criminal way.

Regarding the way the gun was holstered at his crotch. There is a way to conceal carry a sidearm called appendix carry. It involves tucking the gun into your belt, front and center. It gives you quick access for a fast draw but can be awkward.
View attachment 644009
What he did was not concealed. It was an awkward low hanging version of this, and it was in a long hanging holster that did not seem to match the gun. This seems to indicate opportunity, cheap, worked practically but it did not match the gun and that further makes me think the gun could have been a replica/airsoft used just for intimidation. If he thought he might actually need to use the gun in commission to a crime why would he have such awkward gloves on that would put him at such a disadvantage if there was a potentially armed homeowner. But if he's coming for an 84 year old lady that lives alone in a dark secluded neighborhood. a replica displayed front and center might be all he needs to threaten her. Remember in the earlier frame he had the gun concealed, and he came up with it hanging front and center, which means to me, he wanted it to be seen, likely for intimidation and coercion to get the homeowner to comply.

So it seems to me to be an awkward, practical albeit fumbling way to display a threat (which again may not be a real firearm, we just don't know) that matches the obtuse practicality he displayed with the rest of his get-up (mouth light, thick awkward gloves that he thought would hide fingerprints/dna better perhaps, reflective backpack--poor choice strictly practical, will do, etc.)

I am wondering about drugs and alcohol use/addiction.

Yes the part that feels off is someone young, inexperienced, or mentally ill/ intellectually impaired who is acting in a way he thinks a criminal would behave, dress, etc. Maybe based on TV or movies. Not the real world. But it is very poorly done. This is what feels off to you,

Yes his comfort level was not from overtraining and confidence like you would see with an experienced criminal, or highly trained military etc. And they would understand the importance of the task ahead of them. The serious consequences for failure, etc.

So we are looking perhaps at a teen or young 20’s male. Someone whose frontal lobe is not yet developed completely so is reckless, poor judgement, cannot envision consequences or seriousness of behavior. Add a great deal of testosterone in a person who does not yet know how to handle that in socially appropriate ways. And drugs or alcohol.

Unfortunately, the risk assessment of this type of person is not good.

Interesting in terms of the gun.
Did you see the gun on this guy in the initial frames?
And then later he moves it?
Or did someone hand it to him do you think.

There are many ways to act threatening with a gun.
He chose to use a highly sexualized placement.

 

[Sakura2Sophia4Lucia]

That's going to make family holidays very very interesting in the future. I admit, I don't see that much resemblance to the picture.

They don't send a SWAT team or get a warrant to search a house because of a tip of the person apprehended last night looking similar to this person. IMO LE had to have had other convincing concerns and information about this person (e.g. their movements, their vehicles, their cell phone activity, pings by NG's house while delivering packages, relative saying they were acting suspicious, etc) for a judge to okay the warrant and for the SWAT team to be deployed. JMHO

 

[PCHS]

Would a family have to wait for someone to be declared dead before selling a home, or is the years-long wait just for things like life insurance?

I mean she is 84..not to sound morbid but it is more likely then not that they will be able to access the money within a few short years without committing a crime.

 

[SlimPickens]

I think it's from a different time period. The FBI said it was of "the individual." So it must have been before and not after, because he disabled the camera before the crime.

I think I heard the Director boasting about substantial enhancements FBI analysts did to the video/photos after retrieving them from Google. I hope those enhancements weren't AI generated, like those photos/videos on social media when things appear and disappear at random sometimes. Could you imagine if these were AI generated/automated? Like they released them and didn't realize the backpack was off? Hopefully the smart people would've discerned that quickly. In any case, it would have had to have been before, since anything after would've negated the camera he took/destroyed.

JMO.

 

[AggieLou]

I

Apparently it is too dark to see anything other than what is in the sky.

I think LE has more from the Nest video than just what they've released. It's possible they have everything the camera picked up until it was torn down. Maybe they detained the person yesterday based on something else. And what about the camera that was noticed on NG's roof a day or two later. Was it functioning and who put it there. The homeowner? I saw someone wondering if it was put there by the perp/s to see the routine and coming and goings.

 

[cbaymult]

Jacket possibly looks like Ozark Trail as well. No distinct label, cuffs are very unique along with border around zipper. Wish there was as a good view of the rear near neck. Very distinct snap hook. Tough to tell, but watching in slow mo and zoom, looks like back of elbow may be off color/fabric like a the one linked below?

Walmart brand everything fits the bill of young, lacking money, inexperienced.

Ozark Trail Men's and Big Men's Mix Media Fleece Jacket, Sizes S-3XL - Walmart.com

Buy Ozark Trail Men's and Big Men's Mix Media Fleece Jacket, Sizes S-3XL at Walmart.com

www.walmart.com

Or intentionally misleading

 

[Bluewing3102]

I have seen it done on tv shows
Like “Unforgotten”
So depends on store probably
And your assumption these were bought at same time/same location

I mean using SQL if you sorted by region (to encompass a reasonable radius), queried for these specific items, and maybe picked a date range of last month or two. You'd probably get some interesting results. I just don't know if regional managers or Walmart as an entity have databases like this.

 

[white rabbit]

ok as if it wasn't borderline absurd/ridiculous before, it's beyond pathetic sadness now.

there is video (on fox so i can't post it) of the driver of a white SUV pulling up to LE this afternoon claiming to be a G family PI. LE clearly waves him through, so either the driver is lying, the family is lying, and/or LE is completely incompetent. or it wasn't a PI at all, and LE is covering up who was really there...

mass media video shows a calm, slow-walking person rambling to NG's front door (without 'blood trickle' behind) in the middle of the night, trying to hide the nest/ring cam with...weeds? seriously? then the cam disappears? c'mon. this is a joke. if anyone can find a verified time stamp of the 'intruder' on a stolen camera/google cloud, i still won't belive it.

no claim/verification of AG/SIL's car being towed, but LE's been to the house at least a handful of times. they're finally going into the foothills to search miles of cacti, yet two days ago they're looking into sceptic tanks on the property. ok.

it's what we don't know at this point we should be focused on.