Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[KonaHonu]

The thing with genealogy is that its only used to narrow down a potential match.

Even in the Kohberger case they still retrieved a sample of his DNA to match with the known sample from the crime scene.

Yes, but the probable cause to get a warrant for a sample is based on very weak evidence imo. I'm not saying it should be outlawed, just that I think most decisions judges are making about it are based on ignorance or outright misrepresentation by prosecutors.

It's kind of like :

Your honor, most white guys drink. We believe xxx drinks because his father has a dui.

We'd like to stop and test xxx based on his genetic connection to a criminal.

Now, the thing is, in that situation the judge is likely to see through the argument. But throw in DNA...

 

[MassGuy]

But this guy isn't just a stranger in a mask abducting an old lady from her home. He is a stranger in a mask who evidently sent untraceable emails to various media outlets demanding a substantial ransom be paid to a cryptocurrency account. A stranger in a mask who has not only avoided capture and arrest due to an obvious lack of identifying physical evidence at the scene, but also a stranger in a mask who has avoided capture and arrest due an obvious lack of identifying digital evidence online, which is pretty remarkable by today's investigatory standards.

At 12-13 days in, I'd say he has thus far committed a 'hot shower with pumice loofah' crime. But perfectly clean? That remains to be seen. Unfortunately I kind of like his odds without an obvious and identifying mistake so far.

JMO.

I don't believe that the ransom sender and this guy are the same person. You're talking about someone operating on an advanced level on the one hand, and some guy seemingly out of his depth on the other.

We have no idea what he left at the scene, but as we have seen in past cases, criminals make mistakes (even brilliant ones).

I jut hope the glove thing is true, and it was found in the house. It would be a Bryan Kohberger level mistake.

 

[britinsussex]

Have you seen that video from Ring Neighbors?

Ring Neighbors

neighbors.ring.com

That man looks similar to the POI in the videos released by LE imo.

Spotted by a neighbor's camera in Tucson on 01/23/26:
"This guy appeared in front yard about 3:30 am and then returned about 5:00 am. My dogs went crazy barking and thankfully spooked him away. I didn’t answer the door. Anyone else see him in area of 6th between Campbell and Tucson blvd?"

This man resembles the perp in the video from NG home. His eyes and eyebrows. Eys have dark lashes, which makes him appear as if he has eyeliner on. Looks much smaller than perp, but in the NG video, I feel he has "bulked up" by adding layers underneath his coat. jmoo

 

[MesquiteO21]

I totall agree. My mother was adopted. I recently had my DNA done and a collaborator and I were able to identify my biological grandmother and her extended family back several generations in less than 2 hours. But after more than a month there is a half aunt we cannot place and an entire branch of the family that matches but we cannot find a connection.

Based on my personal experience with it, I think judges need to be far more restrictive on issuing warrants based on genetic genealogy. My partner has several close cousin matches that we know are impossible. I don't think DNA lies. But there are factors like pedigree collapse and endogamy that exist in many populations and the impact of these factors is far too complicated for a judge or jury to understand, yet far too easy for a prosecutor to misrepresent out of ignorance.

The same factors make genetic genealogy high preducial against certain ethnic groups.

We've all been trained that DNA is so overwhelmingly reliable that a match can't be questioned. That's true in most situations but not when it comes to genealogy.

I don’t know the exact ins and outs of the process used in the Idaho case but from what I gather the knife sheath DNA matched to a cousin in a genealogy database and then investigators used a family tree with that cousin to get to BK’s parents. They then obtained DNA from BK’s dad and found it was a parent-offspring match.

I understand that family tree records definitely can have problems/errors and there’s even issues with official historical records (such as how at a certain point in time if a Native American woman was married to a white man and living in “white society”, Census workers would mark her race as white. Even if she was actually half or full NA.)

If while referencing the tree the investigators had found say, Dick and Jane Doe in Florida instead of BK’s parents in Pennsylvania, as long as they legally obtained a sample of Dick’s DNA to test against the knife sheath DNA (and obviously found it wasn’t a close parent-offspring match so didn’t proceed further) I guess I’m not seeing an issue with it?

Moo

 

[Friday Fan]

Have you seen that video from Ring Neighbors?

Ring Neighbors

neighbors.ring.com

That man looks similar to the POI in the videos released by LE imo.

Spotted by a neighbor's camera in Tucson on 01/23/26:
"This guy appeared in front yard about 3:30 am and then returned about 5:00 am. My dogs went crazy barking and thankfully spooked him away. I didn’t answer the door. Anyone else see him in area of 6th between Campbell and Tucson blvd?"

I don't have Ring but when my house was being remodeled all I had was my phone and out of shear boredom, I would scroll a SM site that likes to sow a bit of fear amongst neighbors.

I saw all sorts of stuff. It was quite amazing.

In the funniest one, a guy in full leather BDSM with teardrop tattoos appeared at a guy's house at 3 am.

It's amazing that all this stuff goes on out there.

Just because something shows stuff on people's porches doesn't mean it's connect to this case. Although it's worth pursuing. This guy on the Ring neighbor's video likely has been doing this for awhile. (His clothes look dirty. Maybe he's homeless and looking to crash)

In one case, near me someone posted a video. Boy oh boy..the responses. You would think it was the end of the world! Then someone privately contacted the homeowner and said it was their family member and they had a mental illness and would often wander around and end up on people's porches doing weird things.

 

[NewYork625]

Accela Citizen Access

 

[ArmchairSherlock]

Ring Neighbors

neighbors.ring.com

Has this video already been posted? It's from a neighbor's Ring camera on 1/23/26

 

[InVinoVeritas]

What was the motive of this crime? As time goes on, I am struggling to see it being financial. Was this a chance burglary which NG disturbed and was killed/died in the process? I do not believe NG would answer the door at that time of night. Did the perpetrator panic as this wasn't the original plan and there was the risk of identification. In which case, what would they do with the body - there must've been more than one to help ...

I am also struggling to see this being a family member - especially after the release of the doorstep footage. This would have to be some incredible cover up at an emotionally charged time, if someone went to her door, knowing she was already gone. Unnecessary too, as you wouldn't think Nest had any footage.

I am inclined to believe the ransom notes were all fake, otherwise why wouldn't they have provided some sort of proof of life or indeed death. SG had said they would pay ... The timing was also questionable receiving the notes IMO.

So what are we left with? A worker who had visited the house and NG and had some knowledge of it? Why? Someone wanting to hurt SG? An organised gang [why?]

I am interested in everyones thought at this point. I've gone through every scenario in my head! In asking for doorbell footage from early January, do we understand LE are considering this may have been planned ahead, or part of a wider network of crime?

 

[britinsussex]

I don't believe that the ransom sender and this guy are the same person. You're talking about someone operating on an advanced level on the one hand, and some guy seemingly out of his depth on the other.

We have no idea what he left at the scene, but as we have seen in past cases, criminals make mistakes (even brilliant ones).

I jut hope the glove thing is true, and it was found in the house. It would be a Bryan Kohberger level mistake.

I'm operating on a theory that not just one person abducted NG. Do you think the opposite, given the info we have so far? Just curious.

 

[ArmchairSherlock]

I don't believe that the ransom sender and this guy are the same person. You're talking about someone operating on an advanced level on the one hand, and some guy seemingly out of his depth on the other.

We have no idea what he left at the scene, but as we have seen in past cases, criminals make mistakes (even brilliant ones).

I jut hope the glove thing is true, and it was found in the house. It would be a Bryan Kohberger level mistake.

The glove was found outside during the searching of the area. There was video from one of the news stations of it happening. It could be anyone's lost glove.

 

[britinsussex]

Ring Neighbors

neighbors.ring.com

Has this video already been posted? It's from a neighbor's Ring camera on 1/23/26

Yes. Upthread. Very interesting!

 

[moonglow123]

Have you seen that video from Ring Neighbors?

Ring Neighbors

neighbors.ring.com

That man looks similar to the POI in the videos released by LE imo.

Spotted by a neighbor's camera in Tucson on 01/23/26:
"This guy appeared in front yard about 3:30 am and then returned about 5:00 am. My dogs went crazy barking and thankfully spooked him away. I didn’t answer the door. Anyone else see him in area of 6th between Campbell and Tucson blvd?"

Omg! I can definitely see a resemblance with the video footage of the suspect. And he does the same thing of trying to touch or briefly cover the camera. I hope they’ve submitted it to LE.

 

[InVinoVeritas]

Ring Neighbors

neighbors.ring.com

Has this video already been posted? It's from a neighbor's Ring camera on 1/23/26

Yet they're clearly not bothered about showing their face. Does anyone know what the crime rate is in this area of AZ?

 

[Spectrix]

Edit - finally found a link to news of the single glove found inside Nancy's residence -

TUCSON, Ariz. (NewsNation) — An FBI official tells NewsNation that Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos is blocking federal agents from accessing key evidence in the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, hindering the bureau’s ability to assist in the case.

The evidence includes a glove discovered inside Nancy Guthrie’s home and DNA samples — described as “basically all the evidence” in the case so far, according to the FBI source.

Sheriff in Nancy Guthrie case withholding key evidence, FBI says

“This is dumb,” the source told NewsNation, adding that the bureau stepped in at the sheriff’s request. “The FBI wants to find Nancy.”

www.newsnationnow.com

 

[Mistermagoo]

A glove found more than a mile away from Nancy's property is not exactly laying around her house.

I'm pretty sure they are talking about a report of a glove actually being found in NG's house.

 

[NewYork625]

What was the motive of this crime? As time goes on, I am struggling to see it being financial. Was this a chance burglary which NG disturbed and was killed/died in the process? I do not believe NG would answer the door at that time of night. Did the perpetrator panic as this wasn't the original plan and there was the risk of identification. In which case, what would they do with the body - there must've been more than one to help ...

I am also struggling to see this being a family member - especially after the release of the doorstep footage. This would have to be some incredible cover up at an emotionally charged time, if someone went to her door, knowing she was already gone. Unnecessary too, as you wouldn't think Nest had any footage.

I am inclined to believe the ransom notes were all fake, otherwise why wouldn't they have provided some sort of proof of life or indeed death. SG had said they would pay ... The timing was also questionable receiving the notes IMO.

So what are we left with? A worker who had visited the house and NG and had some knowledge of it? Why? Someone wanting to hurt SG? An organised gang [why?]

I am interested in everyones thought at this point. I've gone through every scenario in my head! In asking for doorbell footage from early January, do we understand LE are considering this may have been planned ahead, or part of a wider network of crime?

Someone may have originally intended to kidnap NG for ransom, and it went badly. Lacking any way to provide proof of life they may have taken her away to try to cover up their crime. After that, there may have been others who had nothing to do with the crime and no insider knowledge, but took the opportunity to make ransom demands.

 

[SUNchips]

Yet they're clearly not bothered about showing their face. Does anyone know what the crime rate is in this area of AZ?

Everyone is saying “neighbor” but this is pretty far from NG. Much closer to the U of A where there’s a lot more foot traffic and a homeless population. Crime rate is much higher in this part of town than the foothills. MOO

 

[SMK777]

The glove was found outside during the searching of the area. There was video from one of the news stations of it happening. It could be anyone's lost glove.

These 2 articles show that:

1. There were gloves found on the roadside.

2. There was a glove found inside the house.

Redirect Notice

Redirect Notice

 

[jtfolden]

The glove was found outside during the searching of the area. There was video from one of the news stations of it happening. It could be anyone's lost glove.

There was a glove found inside the house apparently.

 

[MesquiteO21]

Probably a good thing he destroyed the camera. There is a significant chance that Google was able to recover these videos because of the destruction process meant video wasn't recorded over.

Niiiiiice.

(Although I kinda hate that he publicly put that out there now…)

moo