• #25,901
Trash compactor? I missed where to see this. Thanks!
You need to find a video that has the audio that goes with it. Can't remember where I seen it, but it is very loud and where people thought that he was trying to attempt throwing the backpack over the fence was actually him lifting the backpack up over what appears to sound like a trash compacter and he is shoveling things out of the backpack into it. At least that is what I got out of it. Maybe someone on here can pull up that video along with the audio.
 
  • #25,902
  • #25,903
Yes and I also think it is interesting that the reporter didn't ask Pima County for an explanation. The FBI has more resources and more sources in the media so they will always win the PR game.
Regardless of the validity of the complaints, I can't imagine what seems like a concerted media campaign (multiple reports from different outlets) from the FBI against the Sheriff is going to improve the situation.

Everyone needs to suck it up and work with each other if they're going to solve this.
 
  • #25,904
I don't think it has been disclosed whether the perpetrator removed the doorbell camera. If it hasn't been disclosed, then all we know for sure is that he was fidgeting with it.

JMO.
 
  • #25,905
One of the army flights out of Tucson is doing border surveillance ATM.

(Sorry about the annoying ad. FlightRadar insisted I remove my ad blocker)

View attachment 644431
UH-72 Lakotas are owned by the National Guard for the sole purpose of supporting a state mission. For Arizona it's most likely counter-drug and border surveillance. These are routine flights for them.

I meant to reply to the original poster***
 
  • #25,906
RSBM

I'm curious to know what is considered a "professional". ? The perpetrator(s) still has not been caught.

Some mistakes, yes. But still, ski mask, gloves, backpack with (or without for that matter) reflective striping. I think it's safe to say that a lot of people in the US have these Ring, Nest, doorbell cameras, so that should be expected. Even without tape or spray paint. The person had a mask on, no need for tape or paint. We see videos of people stealing packages from porches all the time not wearing anything to protect their face. Even if he didn't know "for sure" there was a camera there, he expected one there just by his ski mask. I am confused by the use of the plant though. Maybe the camera wasn't the type he expected so he needed more time...?

I haven't looked at maps of the neighborhood. NG's house looked like it was off the main road, surrounded by vegetation, long walkway. Were other houses in the neighborhood like that too? Or was hers the only one?
Professional means "experienced," but I don't see that here. If you've done your homework, you have a plan for that camera immediately. This guy didn't.

Not getting caught doesn't mean you committed a clean crime. A stranger in a mask doesn't have to be perfect to get away for a while, and even the sloppiest offender can do the same.

All the houses are like that, and many face at an angle to the road. Precisely why we don't have a vehicle identification.
 
  • #25,907
You need to find a video that has the audio that goes with it. Can't remember where I seen it, but it is very loud and where people thought that he was trying to attempt throwing the backpack over the fence was actually him lifting the backpack up over what appears to sound like a trash compacter and he is shoveling things out of the backpack into it. At least that is what I got out of it. Maybe someone on here can pull up that video along with the audio.
Oooooh i see thanks… I thought there was another video that I had missed. I’ll try to find one again that doesn’t have a new person talking over it. Thx!
 
  • #25,908
I'm never going to abandon hope for Nancy, but at just about two weeks now, I'm extremely concerned. It just does not make any logical sense to me why a kidnapper if they were motivated by money would be so blasé about communicating or getting a ransom. There's no sense of urgency from the kidnapper(s) at all. And that isn't good. Kidnappers who are motivated by money want to get the whole ordeal over with as quickly as possible. They don't want to have to look after a captive and they want money. Whoever is involved with this has shown no urgency to bring this to a resolution.

And if they weren't motivated by money, well... then that's even more concerning.
 
  • #25,909
  • #25,910
That does appear to be the case! I saw this one, and the stripe-like pattern of the path also appears to coincide with training flight paths based on what I've seen. The helicopters before though weren't doing that, weren't near the border, and as I mentioned, CBP doesn't normally use US Army helicopters, to my knowledge. Maybe the one you're showing is an anomaly? I guess neither of us will ever know, sadly

TBH the Texas activity is irrelevant... Tucson activity could be
 
  • #25,911
What have they been saying, for example? I can’t even imagine.
I started this, and what I've read over and over, is she deserves all of this. That's all I'll say, anyone can have an X account and get the gist about any topic and figure things out after they've read there for a short time.
 
  • #25,912
  • #25,913
Michael Ruiz (we've seen a million of his tweets) being interviewed right now:

Despite the friction, there's real progress here.

Talking about how the doorbell camera footage being recovered has possibly never been done before.

Also discussing the inconsistency with the sheriff saying he called the FBI, and then saying seconds later that he didn't even have to call them, because they called him.

Former FBI agent talking about how that Florida lab wouldn't have access to CODIS, which will cause a delay once that DNA is processed.

Talking about a glove being found INSIDE the house. I'm not taking this as fact as this point, because of the other gloves that have been found.

Former LE officer talks about how they obviously have evidence if they're able to quickly clear a potential suspect, like we saw with that DoorDash driver.

Line BBM:

Former FBI agent talking about how that Florida lab wouldn't have access to CODIS, which will cause a delay once that DNA is processed.

*blink* And in this digital day and age, just how long is it realistically going to take for the FL lab to transmit the results back to the sheriff's office to upload into CODIS? I can't see it being so long as to be detrimental, at this point.
 
  • #25,914
The letters are proven to be written by the perps. Mostly, with few somewhat unlikely exceptions. I really cannot decide if their ransom attempts were purposefully impossible or they were just clueless on how it should work. Crazy as it is, there's always a price negotiation. However, there's also POL. Idk....this case is wild!

If not ransom and a financial motive, that leaves somebody wanting NG dead. But why? The entire crime feels very personal. It feels like an attack on somebody other than NG. But, it could be anybody or anything. People can stew on perceived wrongs, jealousy, and delights forever and then unexpectedly exact revenge.
Thank you! I missed that the letters were proven to be written by the perps. I thought still under investigation.

WRT your second paragraph, "that leaves somebody wanting NG dead", I also think the crime "seems" personal but I cannot think of the "why" obviously just given what I've heard about the family. And no indication that any of the notes said anything personal TOWARDS the family. NG by all public accounts seemed like a lovely woman, SG isn't overly political or rude or dramatic, no known other family issues. (Key being "known"). MAKES NO SENSE!! for her to be a target. Other than a robbery for some currently unknown reason and accident that led to her death. IMO....
 
  • #25,915
What have they been saying, for example? I can’t even imagine.
I feel like I'm on shaky ground with this type of subject so I'm trying to find the best way to convey. I'm going to use this article that first appeared in the Arizona Republic to try to illustrate. I get the impression there are many people on Twitter/X who are aware of NG's views on certain subjects and there is a level of ire regarding this. I hope this makes sense and at the same time doesn't violate any rules in place for this thread.

 
  • #25,916
  • #25,917
Google Trends and Google Analytics are not the same thing. Google Analytics is not relevant here (it can't be used for this). People are using Google Trends, which is designed to show how the popularity of common search terms varies over time. To my knowledge (MOO, possibly out of date information disclaimers apply), it operates on a sample of search traffic rather than all traffic. For example (completely making up the number here), they might decide that they only need to look at 1% of search traffic to generate trends, because any sufficiently popular search term will still be in those millions of searches, in the right proportions compared to other popular search terms. But if you have an uncommon search term, it's possible or even likely that it won't show up at all in that 1% slice. And maybe it does show in the next 1% slice and it looks like suddenly there's a spike in traffic, when it was roughly the same.

I would not expect the problem to be that it shows searches that didn't happen. I expect that it will miss searches that did happen, but potentially inconsistently, which can show up as spikes and valleys that don't actually exist.

It's also possible that some search term normalization happens (things like spell correction, clustering of similar search terms, etc.) which might cause searches to show up in a trend when you might not expect them to.

Finally, the geolocation stuff is really iffy at small numbers. If all of the searches in that "spike" come from one user who happens to be using a VPN, it's going to be way wrong. This effect generally will cancel out on a common search term with millions of searches.

Bottom line really, without needing to know any technical details of how this works, is that it's not what Google Trends was designed for. Just like any other time we're using something in a way other than what it was designed for, the results might not be what we hope.

JMO, based on a combination of experience, knowledge, and educated guesses. There may be mistakes here. Trust at your own risk.
I appreciate learning how this works. I was skeptical whether data on Google searches conducted days prior to recent homicides in Minneapolis and Columbus was meaningful. You explained in a way easy to understand what the tool is designed to do and why extrapolating from results for other purposes might be unreliable. Thank you!
 
  • #25,918
Many differing explanations for Nancy’s disappearance. Bottom line, are the Sheriff and the FBI at odds as to what happened here with the Feds leaning toward kidnapping. Does the Sheriff explain the disappearance differently? He has not shown much urgency. IMO
 
  • #25,919
  • #25,920
5’9”- 5’10” is above average male height in the United States. I figured the Somalia angle was just xenophobia and I really wanted to be wrong.
Be careful who you imply is xenophobic as most on here are not aquainted. And FYI Somali men are among the tallest in Africa, 6ft isnt rare. LE never mentioned race of the person on camera. And no one knows if those searches were actually from where they were showing or using a foreign vpn.
 
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