AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

  • #8,961
Couple of thoughts:
1) I think the person responsible is close (family, neighbor, someone who works in the house). This would be irrationally random otherwise. NG isn't a celebrity - even if her daughter is. She isn't wealthy in the manner that usual targets for ransom are and she doesn't live a lifestyle where she's neccessarily exposed (she's not followed by papparazi or the media). There is clearly some knowledge of the house and the fact that there is no subscription for the cameras. Any halfway intelligent person would know that even destroying a camera uploading to the cloud will show everything up to the destruction of the camera - so I think destroying the camera was to avoid anyone watching live (NG? AG?)
2) The perp has a normal M-F 9-5 job. Saturday night / early Sunday seems to fit this AND 2nd note comes out Friday afternoon. Something tells me, based on the timeline - the perp has someone at home expecting them. The times loosely fit a night out: I tell my spouse I'm headed out with the boys. Bars close at 2am. Plausable to say we were kicked out at 2:15am. This would be a valid arrival home closer to 3am if I claim I'm going to a bar across town, stopped for gas, cigarettes, whatever.
3) Blood spatter on porch (as many have pointed out) appears to be aspirated at the doorstep and drops thereafter. The doorstep looks like a small step down or, at least, a threshold to step over - with NG's limited mobility, this step over/down might cause her respiratory exertion resulting in either coughing or heavy exhale through her nose. I think it was a nose bleed - the drops are round and mouth bleeds just don't seem like they fall that way. It looks like she was walking slow on the porch, the drops are close together.
4) I also believe the ransom notes are a distraction or a layer added to cover the real intent. I won't go so far as to say she's no longer alive. But something about the family theory seems to check the boxes. Let's say, hypothethically, you have three children. One is a TV personality on national TV, one is a poet married to a school teacher, and one is a retired Air Force pilot. Would one of them be in a position to feel not as financially secure or not as happy with their lot in life as compared to their siblings? Hypothetically, let's say someone at 10pm calls their spouse letting them know they just dropped off their mom at home safely - but now is headed to the bar in downtown Tucson to meet up with friends - after all, it's saturday night. Same person grabs a few drinks and then heads to NG house. They know the cameras aren't saving any recordings, but disconnects the doorbell cam because it would alert NG or even AG when the doorbell is rung or perhaps it can be turned on remotely by NG is she hears forced entry. Entry is made. No signs of a real struggle because you are known to the NG - until you assault her or she falls. You help her to your car (or a car). You may or may not have a 2nd person helping you - but you do have a place you keep her (is it a storage unit? a partner's place?) Either way, you realize quickly you ARE the prime suspect. You cannot leave your own house now without scrutiny or surviellence by police. You cannot provide proof of life because you simply cannot go to where you are holding her without being found out by LE. Your motive was money - maybe you did intend to kill her and sobered up and realized that was stupid. Maybe the ransom idea then becomes what you go with - which explains waiting so long to send a ransom note. The family records a message on Instagram because they know you'll watch that. References are made to Silence of the Lambs - perhaps because they know it's probably you and that's meaningful to you. You see your wife struggle because you were "out" that night and arrived oddly late. Your brother in law also suspects you and his demeanor is flat because he's talking to you and you know it. You sister in law is full of emotion because she lives in NYC and isn't part of the everyday of the family dynamics in AZ. LE knows it's you and that's why they really haven't done extensive searches with cadaver dogs, sought that TX equestrian group, or had volunteers walking the desert.
With all that said - it could also be someone close to the family following the same script. I just don't believe the excess stuff LE is doing is really progressing the case. I think it might be to gather evidence to make the case stronger - but I think they already know who did it and they are either waiting for him to go to her OR they are negotiating with him in the background while maintaining "no suspect" for the public.
 
  • #8,963
And he should not be looked at as a RELIABLE source here one would think...
Why not? AB stated she had information from a reliable source without naming and is considered reliable here but DJT who is actually talking to the FBI etc regarding this case shouldn't be considered reliable? Can't have it both ways. Take what info we get with a grain of salt if you want but I think both should be considered reliable IMO
 
  • #8,964
In regards to the pacemaker, and sorry if this has been covered (thread is moving too fast), would it still be sending data to doctors office even if it was away from her devices? Nanos keeps saying they think she is alive….could data still transmitting indicate this? JMO
Needs either an app and active account on phone or a monitoring device nearby. My brother has a pacemaker but not a cellphone. So he has a small monitoring device by his bed that stays green if all is ok. It does send medical info when things are good and if things were to go wrong. It’s a company called Medtronics in his case. He initially had to sit for 30 minutes to pair up his device with mentoring device.
 
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  • #8,965
I think he has been briefed by the FBI on the latest and as usual he wants the spotlight on him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is the one who announces any breakthroughs in the case. He has done that in the past with many events, bypassing the traditional route/announcer and stealing their thunder.
I am so happy I don't feel that need, it must be very time consuming and exhausting having to be the most in the know person on the planet (in his own mind)
 
  • #8,966
The following is a thought experiment only......
What if it is about the house itself? What if someone's elderly mobility challenged medication dependent relative (I'll call this person XS) was going to move into an assisted living situation and put the house on the market. The relative (I'll call this person(s) XX) believes the financial gain will be lost paying for the assisted living and talks XS into allowing XX to move into the house until XS passed away. Then suddenly, without warning, XS changes their mind, deciding they do not require assisted living and will stay where they are and takes the house off the market. This action puts XX in a bad situation financially because XX has already has given up their current residence and is now forced to purchase or lease a home they cannot afford. Some time goes by and XX financial situation does not improve, in fact it gets worse and the previous "agreement" which feels like a betrayal to XX, festers and eats away at their rational thought. They are continuing to provide more and more care for XS and feel as if other relatives are not responding favorably to their attempts to get XS into assisted living so they can get out from under their financial burden and return to the agreement of them living in XSs house. They hatch a kidnap plan to prove XS cannot take care of theirself living alone and it is oh so dangerous for their safety. The plan was never to harm XS, only hold him/her long enough to assure that after being returned, living alone in the house would never be an option.
my outside-of-the-box thought only.
Not a bad logic trail if assuming insider motive. In my state, assisted living can ask you to sign over deed to home basically. Assisted living is known to eat up any and all assets that would otherwise be left to relatives. My grandparents were jot rich at all, very middle class. They chose to stay in their home for this reason so they could leave it to my mom and aunt. Their home sold for $380,000 and they had $500k in CDs and savings, abd my mom and aunt got $300k each which wasn't bad from grandparents who never had much.
 
  • #8,967
Same. I look for signs of rear light blinks or movement like they trying to communicate with me. ha The very first tip I EVER called into LE years ago was a creeper in a white van. (Imo)
I refuse to park next to a white panel van. 😄
 
  • #8,968
  • #8,969
Very understandable - I have know T for a long time - interesected with him in business years ago - and I know exactly who the man is.

But I am always mindful that thinking in a "broad brush style" sweeps away the anomalies

Watching the clip of his statement - even his body language deviates from it's normal bravado - he mentions things happening in the last couple of hours. He is being updated imo.

Is he bloviating ? Could be , but to me this feels different. He's not adding a lot of superficial bs and talking in circles.

He wants to come out a hero on this and get the win. BC he will take credit if they solve it.



I know who he is too.
 
  • #8,970
I understand the FBI is an institution with a good old boy network which may be rigid and outdated. But it just goes against common sense and psychology principles to uses generic and outdated data to deal with a crisis that involves life and death.

Licensed mental health professionals have a legal and ethical duty to protect. Using 35 year old data and protocols are probably not protecting anyone.

And in fact in the real world would be medical malpractice. Think about a medical doctor who is using 35 year old surgical techniques or outdated medication.

But sadly perhaps you are correct. We shall see.
JMO - The FBI isn't a good ole' boy network using 35 year old profiling studies by far. They have continuously updated their methodologies and cutting edge technologies along with the rest of the world, if not ahead of them. They developed CODIS, AFIS way back when, and they're the lead Federal Agency in Cyber Security, Terrorism, etc.

The FBI has been instrumental in Genetic Genealogy Testing working with LE in conjunction with the forefront leaders like Othram and Parabon. The Golden State Killer was the first big break in GG, and the latest one I can think of off the top of my head was the Idaho Murderer who killed 4 College Students. Many, many old cold cases have been solved as well.

MOO
 
  • #8,971
My understanding from other reports is they used the "contact form" that's on the news website, which typically doesn't allow for attaching content such as image, video or audio files.
Why not do a screenshot? If these people are so technically sophisticated, there has to be a way to provide it. IMO, they just don't want to provide it or can't.

For all we know, the ransom notes can be from Russian hackers, who are pretty sophisticated.

Also, the kidnappers could ask the local station for an email address. If proof of life is the holdup and NG is still alive and being housed by them, the longer the wait, the riskier it is for them and for her.

JMO.
 
  • #8,972
Needs either an app and active account on phone or a monitoring device nearby. My brother has a pacemaker but not a cellphone. So he has a small monitoring device by his bed that stays green if all is ok. It does send medical info when things are good and if things were to go wrong.
Thank you for this info!
 
  • #8,973
The joy of having a long thread... much easier to pull an older post forward.

In case some missed it.. here ya go! 😁
None of these are currently being discussed in this thread
 
  • #8,974
Ironically, the movie (Fargo) was just on a few nights ago. DH found it while scrolling with his third arm, aka the remote. It’s a creepy/ funny classic of a movie. However it does NOT end well for the kidnappers or perpetrator of the crime. Sorry if spoiling plot for some.
Fabulous movie.
 
  • #8,975
Dan O'Shea, a retired Navy SEAL and former coordinator of a Hostage Working Group was on Elizabeth Vargas and his (speculative) take was that this could be a media driven motive. Thought it was interesting:

AB opens with: Dan O'Shea talks about the kidnap business because it's what he works in for a living, right? He's the negotiator. He said, "Kidnap for ransom is a business. They're not idiots. They want their money. They do this. They have a protocol. They have a system. They're typically pretty sophisticated kidnapped for ransom. They don't typically beat the [ __ ] out of their victims and then ask for money without any other communication. They just don't operate in this way. They operate in a way where they can get their money. I want you to hear from Dan O'Shea because I think he says it far more eloquently than I do.

DO: Yeah, but the reality is they have not provided proof of life. Um and again, this is unlike any case I've ever seen. And I've been tracking cases now for 20 plus years. I, you know, my two years in Iraq, but I I've almost got a PhD in this and I've never come across this case with, you know, the demands sent to TMZ to local news media. Um, they need to go directly to the family. They're asking for millions of dollars on Bitcoin, which will be untraceable if that money is sent. And this is, they're not acting in good faith.

And I frankly think this group is going after the news media. They've created this 24/7 news cycle. And I think this exposure may be part of it. So you have to look at, you know, the motives. Why would you go after, you know, Savannah Guthrie is a very high-profile figure, but you know, she's not controversial. Um, why would they go after her mother who's, you know, got a health condition? She's 84.

But my bigger concern is the fact that they used violence at the scene, you know. Yes. Because we know that NY's blood was found on the front stoop. She must she was hurt at some point while she was abducted, right? So, from the get-go, the family cannot trust that they're dealing with a with an honest broker from day one. Kidnapping is a business.

Kidnap for ransom is a business and people need to play by the rules. This in this group or this individual is is not playing by the rules. Therefore, the family and the others will be hesitant to move forward because there are no good faith negotiations in this case.

12:25 mark
I watched that AB report yesterday,
they are not acting in good faith, they have a protocol, this is a business! ( paraphrased)
Hard to understand because kidnappers are dangerous criminals.
 
  • #8,976
The joy of having a long thread... much easier to pull an older post forward.

In case some missed it.. here ya go! 😁
She's going to have to pin that at the top of every page, imo. I sure hope the thread doesn't get shut down for clean up!
 
  • #8,977
JMO - The FBI isn't a good ole' boy network using 35 year old profiling studies by far. They have continuously updated their methodologies and cutting edge technologies along with the rest of the world, if not ahead of them. They developed CODIS, AFIS way back when, and they're the lead Federal Agency in Cyber Security, Terrorism, etc.

The FBI has been instrumental in Genetic Genealogy Testing working with LE in conjunction with the forefront leaders like Othram and Parabon. The Golden State Killer was the first big break in GG, and the latest one I can think of off the top of my head was the Idaho Murderer who killed 4 College Students. Many, many old cold cases have been solved as well.

MOO
I agree with you, and this is the point I have been making.
 
  • #8,978
Why not do a screenshot? If these people are so technically sophisticated, there has to be a way to provide it. IMO, they just don't want to provide or can't.
What I'm saying is the "contact form" on some websites that have it, won't allow anything other than text submissions. It has nothing to do with the sender's tech skills. If they had an email address contact, they could attach other content, but I suspect that would be risky and easier to trace. Not sure how much you can encrypt images.
 
  • #8,979
Sweet Nancy, I hope you are ok. We are all hoping for the best outcome. 🌻
 

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