AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[investigatoroffacts]

Occam's razor can point toward a simple explanation like ransom/kidnapping if there are real ransom demands and credible evidence. Occam's razor doesn't mean "it's ransom" it means the explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is more likely.

If these things are true:
The family publicly acknowledges ransom demands, they publicly say they will pay, there are credible reports that ransom notes/messages were sent, there is video of a suspect/abduction:

Then (right now) Occam's razor would favor the ransom kidnapping as the simplest explanation.

 

[korncrasy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021330343056507029

They just left it there? Strange. It’s a Men’s golf shirt.

 

[Ellis' Mom]

thank you...i don't disagree.

what i'm saying is that over the last 1160 pages we've gone round and round with zilch. IMO the "ransom requests", TMZ, etc etc are simply 'hoax' distractions. those of us that have been here for (too) a long time see 'it is what it is'.

for all we know the intruder video was filmed last night under the FBI and LE watch. we have no idea. they're trying to make someone nervous IMO. the media is analyzing stride length, posture, behavioral biometrics. PULEEEZ.

after thousands of speculations, i'm only more cemented in the who the why the where and the how. JMO.

FBI/LE may be trying to make someone nervous, but not by filming the video "last night."
The blood spots were clearly visible in the very first crime scene photos, the video released yesterday had no blood, and explains the "mysterious" dried vegetation seen in those first crime scene photos.
I'd be willing to bet the blood spots are STILL there--so I can't believe that the video was filmed anytime after early am February 1st.

 

[tbgo]

Occam’s Razor is really pointing to a kidnapping for ransom now. There is the footage of the perp. There are the multiple asks for ransom. What is complicating things is the amount of press and scrutiny this thing is getting and the number of LE, FBI and private agents involved. That is creating some hoax ransom demands that are getting mixed up with the real ones. Plus the real kidnappers are probably scared of being busted if they share too much info like a voice or video recording. They know the whole country is looking for NG now.

There was also a proven ransom hoax, and real ransoms don’t come days later and don’t say that you won’t hear from them again, and real ransoms aren’t sent to the media and not the family alerting authorities right away. They usually tell the family not to alert authorities or they’ll hurt their loved one. Perhaps the perp is just dumb but this is truly not how normal ransoms work.

 

[jellybean96]

How would killing them mean they wouldn't have to share the inheritence?

If they knew the will said one thing right now and it was going to be changed in the near future?

 

[Monepone]

They just left it there? Strange. It’s a Men’s golf shirt.

I think someone said it was an L.L Bean, but I have no idea what type.

 

[Absoluterubbish]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021330343056507029

What were they referring to as 'today's news" when they posted that article. First time I have seen the blood spots on the path as well.

 

[CrimeReporter]

Just some random thoughts:

• Was the person smart enough to not bring his cell phone?
• Are there any LPRs in the area — on a likely exit route? Or was the person smart enough to not use a vehicle with correct plates? Maybe had stolen plates, or a temporary tag, or removed/covered the plates?
• Is there not a single camera in the neighborhood or at a business that caught even a bad image of a vehicle?
• The untraceable (so far) messages to the media outlets and the bitcoin account suggest some level of sophistication. Yet you don’t bring something to obscure the doorbell camera? Of course, this assumes the messages and bitcoin account are actually connected to the perpetrator, rather than an opportunist.
• There was a search warrant for the residence in Rio Rico, which requires LE to put forth some facts or evidence in an affidavit and present it to a judge. They would need more than similar eyebrows. LE must have had some type of information that made the gentleman who was detained last night viable. I’m convinced that gentleman is a dead-end lead, but to get the search warrant, I wonder if LE had some type of information that put him (and perhaps many others) in a pool of potentially viable leads. In other words, does LE have at least some dataset of digital evidence, from which they can include or eliminate individuals as possible persons of interest?
• Hopefully there’s a reporter on the ground who is working to dig up the affidavit for that search warrant. It will likely hold valuable information.

 

[cherryleaf]

I think the possibility of a political motive can't be ruled out. The fact that SG called Senator Mark Kelly before anyone raises some questions with me. He's currently under political attack of his own and being made an example of by the current administration. His wife was also violently targeted by a deranged individual who killed several others. It could just be because they are close and she trusts him. But, on the other hand, could there have been something left in the house that indicated to her that this was a politically motivated crime? Was she seeking his advice? Fearful of who to trust?

There’s more going on than what is publicly known, said my peace hundreds of pages ago. She is by no means to blame for anything but I’ve always believed its related to SG. Willing to be wrong and most likely am but I think she’s connected somehow, even loosely. SG moderated 2 governors speaking on political extremism in Dec 2025. Nothing is beyond the realm of possibility at this point. MOO

Govs. Spencer Cox and Josh Shapiro warn of growing political violence

The Republican and Democratic governors sat down Tuesday night with "Today" co-anchor Savannah Guthrie to talk about political extremism and the current state of politics.

www.nbcnews.com

Bear with me, …Another political violence thing that’s itching in my brain…Vermont Air National Guard (green mountain boys) were deployed in the mission supporting Operation Southern Spear against Venezuela /Maduro in Dec 2025 they then transitioned to February 2026 deployment in the Middle East. Maybe NG disappearance has something to do with some sicko blaming NG son Cameron. I know he’s a retired fighter pilot but joined the Vermont Air National Guard after retiring. Is he still active? Maybe another angle to consider of some party seeking personal retribution. MOO. Im spitballing here

Operation Southern Spear - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Vermont Air National Guard Is Heading to Puerto Rico to Join U.S. Buildup in the Region | Seven Days

Some members of the 158th Air Wing are already in the American territory as tensions in the Caribbean mount.

www.sevendaysvt.com

 

[jellybean96]

Yeah, we call it a "kit".

Backpack, with zip ties, duct tape, tarp, plastic sheeting, gag, etc.

I wonder how much 'lighter' the backpack was when they were leaving. What supplies did he use?

 

[simlyme]

We shouldn't really even know about a random glove they found, before any examination or testing. Now it's a whole thing and it shouldn't be, if you ask me. There is going to be tons of random crap outside on the side of the roads. I'm not saying they won't find anything. But this little glove on the side of a road should not be national news. That's a lot of pressure for a piece of trash.

Higher ups are grasping ! So now lets wait weeks to get any DNA results , if they can even get some. This whole thing is a show.
I feel SO bad for SG, mostly !!

 

[Lebowski]

In one post someone said it almost looked like it was a guy with a few drinks in him, the way he was just casually strolling then picking up the latanas flowers, then fumbling with the doorbell cam. I chuckled, but it resonated. He does have some sort of casual detachment or abnormal comfort level given the gravity of what he's doing, and it's not in some cold and calculated pro-criminal way.

Regarding the way the gun was holstered at his crotch. There is a way to conceal carry a sidearm called appendix carry. It involves tucking the gun into your belt, front and center. It gives you quick access for a fast draw but can be awkward.
View attachment 644009
What he did was not concealed. It was an awkward low hanging version of this, and it was in a long hanging holster that did not seem to match the gun. This seems to indicate opportunity, cheap, worked practically but it did not match the gun and that further makes me think the gun could have been a replica/airsoft used just for intimidation. If he thought he might actually need to use the gun in commission to a crime why would he have such awkward gloves on that would put him at such a disadvantage if there was a potentially armed homeowner. But if he's coming for an 84 year old lady that lives alone in a dark secluded neighborhood. a replica displayed front and center might be all he needs to threaten her. Remember in the earlier frame he had the gun concealed, and he came up with it hanging front and center, which means to me, he wanted it to be seen, likely for intimidation and coercion to get the homeowner to comply.

So it seems to me to be an awkward, practical albeit fumbling way to display a threat (which again may not be a real firearm, we just don't know) that matches the obtuse practicality he displayed with the rest of his get-up (mouth light, thick awkward gloves that he thought would hide fingerprints/dna better perhaps, reflective backpack--poor choice strictly practical, will do, etc.)

bbm

i like this. i keep thinking he put a lot of thought into this, not all of it smart thought, but a lot of thought.

and even in the doorbell footage, you can see the gears turning in his head in real time. carefully watching where he steps. somehow improvising with the flowers. the choices didn't all necessarily make sense or benefit him, but his mind keeps going. doesn't just charge ahead. doesn't seem to panic.

 

[CandyKiss]

View attachment 644002

yes, that is what I posted... I see what you did; I should have extended my arrow... thank you

 

[Goldenseal]

The same guy who didn’t anticipate the door cam and was grabbing shrubs to cover it up.
A-m-a-t-e-u-r.

The shrub pulling made me think “gardener/landscaper”.

Amateur opinion and speculation only

The grabbing of some weeds/flowers to put up against the camera is SO odd that I've been considering the idea that this is a young man with very little experience in anything and/or a young man with mental issues of some type. The extreme weirdness of this case tends to make me lean toward the mental angle, at least on the part of the male on the video. MOO.

I have the luck to actually be in Tucson right now, so I've obviously been following it closely. I don't have any ties here (I'm on vacation) so I can't provide any insider info. But dang, who needs insider info when you have Brian Entin working like a dog!

 

[CandyKiss]

Yes! Zoom in and you can see it. II hope this has been shared with LE.

No, I've only shared it with WS.

 

[nycpizzaparty]

yes, that is what I posted... I see what you did; I should have extended my arrow... thank you

I was trying to be helpful. Just zoom in and circled.

 

[HoveringWombats]

when exactly was the video of the "intruder"(s) time stamped? and...we all know timestamps can be manipulated...

The timestamps from the Nest camera videos almost surely came from the server side, which would be quite difficult for an outside perp to manipulate. I think, absent some strong evidence to the contrary, we can trust those times. I think there's a (dramatically) higher likelihood of LE mis-stating the times or speaking loosely about them in misleading ways than them actually being manipulated such that they'd be incorrect on the server. MOO

 

[Van Helsing]

They may be nitrile or butyl. The thicker butyl gloves for chemical handling are like space suit gloves and resist acid. It looks like her wore that variety.

In either case, it would be hard to get a grip on anything, much less get a finger in the trigger guard of the gun. It's a very odd choice. You can see him fumbling when he handles the doorbell cam then goes to pick up the latanas. If he was confronted with an armed defender he would be at a great disadvantage drawing and handling a firearm w/ those gloves on.

I actually use these gloves in my workshop for cleaning guns, or using harsh solvents for stripping/refinishing firearms (using Acetone, M.E.K. and other chemical strippers). They are hella cumbersome.

Mechanics wear those and they are able to handle small parts very well. Check out some of the TRQ auto repair instructional videos on YouTube.

 

[snoopy100]

Occam's razor can point toward a simple explanation like ransom/kidnapping if there are real ransom demands and credible evidence. Occam's razor doesn't mean "it's ransom" it means the explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is more likely.

If these things are true:
The family publicly acknowledges ransom demands, they publicly say they will pay, there are credible reports that ransom notes/messages were sent, there is video of a suspect/abduction:

Then (right now) Occam's razor would favor the ransom kidnapping as the simplest explanation.

thank you so much for this

 

[nycpizzaparty]

Higher ups are grasping ! So now lets wait weeks to get any DNA results , if they can even get some. This whole thing is a show.
I feel SO bad for SG, mostly !!

And maybe they will find a dried out used teabag and they can interview it on the news and it can do the night show circuit.