• #25,081
Right on @penguinface

LE does not want theories from the public. They have established tip lines asking for information from specific date ranges, in specific areas, observed first hand suspicious activity in the targeted areas, person(s) that stand out to them, etc. And the most crucial IMO do you recognize this person Yes (we want to know) or No (thanks for looking)? Not using AI tools on the suspect and submit those as tips and so on. Do you know this person, do you recognize anything they are wearing? Yes or No. IMO

LE does not want theories, that is mostly what we do here at WS!

Follow evidence, come up with motive, and more!

I think they do have someone reading WS and Reddit, looking for “Papa Rodgers” type posts.

JMO
 
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  • #25,082
What do you make of the ransom author saying per Harvey Levin that Nancy's watch was at the foot of a bed?
I think someone with direct knowledge of the crime scene let that slip to Mr. Levin. Just saying
 
  • #25,083
Authorities launched a large-scale search shortly thereafter, and Nancy's home was subsequently declared a crime scene. Two deadlines outlined on an alleged ransom note sent to several media outlets passed, with the Guthrie family declining to meet the $4 million, and then $6 million demand.
 
  • #25,084
Do we know when the backpack was first released?

If it was only recently that would possibly rule out second-hand.

It’s also possible it was gifted to the perp.
I
I’m still thinking about the items being taken out of AG residence in brown bags yesterday. Obviously they are not the person shown in the camera footage, so their involvement is unlikely IMO. But what were they taking?
I’d say with the way they grabbed the mail, it’s nothing
 
  • #25,085
Thank you @MassGuy.

Unless LE can pinpoint that NG hand or face blood is from early AM 2/1, then as I've suggested ^, I wonder if that was blood from an everyday bleed for an 84 year old likely on an anti-coagulent (my suspicion per recent pics).

She could have had a bleed that started when she got out of a car in her driveway - maybe caught her hand on something... or maybe her return from her mailbox where she bumped her had.

Then in this scenario, when she stopped at the door to get in (get keys?), she would have dropped a concentration of blood, likely from her hand. IMO.
While it's true that she may have bled easily, blood isn't visible on the tiles in the video that the FBI recovered from the Nest doorbell camera. So it appears that the blood must have gotten there after the masked man disables the camera.

 
  • #25,086
I think someone with direct knowledge of the crime scene let that slip to Mr. Levin. Just saying
Wow, if so that's messed up. You could be right. I hadn't thought of that but he has many connections and sources!
 
  • #25,087
Sometimes I feel like some organization/group/aliens is conducting some kind of social experiment on the whole entire US population with this case.

I know that’s not happening but boy it feels like it.
Hah! That feeling occurred to many in the SM world with the Kiely Rodni case in Truckee, CA a few years ago, after it was closed here on WS. Sorry to distract.
 
  • #25,088
While it's true that she may have bled easily, blood isn't visible on the tiles in the video that the FBI recovered from the Nest doorbell camera. So it appears that the blood must have gotten there after the masked man disables the camera.

Excellent observation. I'll cease that line of sleuthing then. 😀
 
  • #25,089
Totally agree with all of this ^^^
Nancy was likely killed the first night, dumped( very sorry) in the desert outside of town.
Why is the question, who would want her gone.

I speculated earlier in thread, NG saw something, maybe as simple as drugs in a workers trunk (his moonlighting job), he was at her house working on a job, maybe the roof. Maybe she even said “ is that drugs?”, he waved it off, “no worries, just materials for a job”, closed trunk.
Later, The person decided it was too big a threat to have her live, she might turn him in.

Just another idea to think about, JMO.
Been saying several times to search the desert - relatively near Tucson (because I doubt the perps went far into the desert). Sad, but that's where a body would be dumped.
 
  • #25,090
The clip, obtained by TMZ, showed a man wearing a backpack and hoisting another one above a brick wall around 1:53 a.m, before a masked, armed man arrived at the home of the 84-year-old mother of “Today” anchor Savannah Guthrie.

The surveillance footage of the man with the backpacks was captured roughly five miles from Nancy Guthrie’s home, according to the outlet.

The FBI and the Pima County Sheriff’s Office are reviewing the video because the man appears to be dressed similarly to the alleged kidnapper captured in separate doorbell camera footage at Guthrie’s home, a source close to the investigation

In an update provided to JJ, they said, “Investigators have recovered several items of evidence, including gloves. As part of the investigative process, all viable evidence is submitted for analysis.”

In a second update, TMZ is saying they received a follow up to their third ransom note. So now, there is a fourth ransom note in play, according to the site.

Derrick Callella appeared in federal court on one count of intent to transmit a demand for ransom and one count of utilizing a telecommunications device to anonymously abuse, threaten or harass a person.

 
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  • #25,091
Back to contemplating the events. All jmo. I'd have thought the guy on video was just stopping there at the front to disable the camera for the later removal of NG, because breaking in that double door is more visible and difficult, imo, than potential other single lock entry points like the slider on the back, possibly the garage, possibly a window. I see why someone would want to remove her through that door though, because the car can pull up in a straight shot from there, and the car itself, especially a larger vehicle, would somewhat hide what's happening from the street.

EXCEPT -- he didn't seem imo to have a great plan for the camera, so maybe his focus was the door itself. But how was he going to get in that way? He wasn't dressed to impersonate LE or any other uniformed personnel like a gas company employee evacuating people for an emergency. Was he counting on her to #1, wake up at knocking or possibly the doorbell and #2, open the door without questioning who was out there? Was he a skilled lock picker, lol? Was that door left unlocked purposefully by someone in advance?
 
  • #25,092
This could easily of been planted there as a diversion. Honestly, you would have to be pretty dumb to throw a glove outside your car that you used in a crime. Or a troll could’ve done it, just to be stupid. After all, it was found after the camera footage was released.

Could it blow out the back of a truck? Probably not, but who knows...
 
  • #25,093
I don’t think it was a robbery, JMO.
I think the bag was full because of rope, gag, body bag, to get her out of the house more easily.
I’ve moved away from the ransom/ kidnapper theory. I think the ransom people were just opportunists. No proof of life, etc.
I think, someone wanted her gone, ( dead, sorry) but why?
I was having some of the same thoughts. If there was rope in the bag, it was more likely a kidnapping. But then I thought about perhaps a robber would need rope to tie up the home owner to keep them subdued during the robbery and force them to give up cash or jewelry, etc. The casual, ill prepared demeanor of the guy on the video makes me think it was just a robbery, not a much more serious crime of kidnapping. Of course this guy could be young and high on drugs.

So I am not sure. And still thinking a robbery gone bad. But I agree kidnapping is high on the list too.

ETA; Murder is on the list, but lower.

If we are looking at a premeditated murder, we need to ask, who benefits and how? And possibly someone with an axe to grind, personal. Something we don't know about.
 
  • #25,094
  • #25,095
I disagree. The sheriff did say he probably should have handled some things differently and he at least responded to the question when he was asked. There’s much more going on than we know and it needs to stay that way to protect the investigation. It seems when it goes quiet, they’re onto something and getting things sorted out, then bam!
I hope that's the case. He really seemed out of his element with any news conferences he gave-and he hasn't had to deal with any massively major news story that is nationwide IMO
 
  • #25,096
I think someone with direct knowledge of the crime scene let that slip to Mr. Levin. Just saying
HL (TMZ) got a copy of the letter and forwarded to LE
 
  • #25,097
I’ve thought that all along! My impression from the video released is that the suspect at the front door first intention was to give a knock at the metal gate (alerting another suspect already inside), but the Nest camera distracted him…he expected the camera to be off. IMO

But would he know the camera was active just by looking at it?

Maybe he knew the subscription was inactive, but somehow the camera alerted him that it was on? A shutter click? I wonder if there is any way for a person to notice that the camera is activated.

Or maybe someone said "there won't be any cameras," a poor translation of, "the camera subscription isn't active." And so just the mere sight of the camera threw him off.
 
  • #25,098
is 5+ miles away considered the same neighborhood?
No. As a local, I would say they are very different neighborhoods and type of neighborhoods.
 
  • #25,099
But would he know the camera was active just by looking at it?

Maybe he knew the subscription was inactive, but somehow the camera alerted him that it was on? A shutter click? I wonder if there is any way for a person to notice that the camera is activated.

Or maybe someone said "there won't be any cameras," a poor translation of, "the camera subscription isn't active." And so just the mere sight of the camera threw him off.
It was reported earlier that there is often a light that comes on when motion is detected, probably so anyone in the dark could find the doorbell to ring.
 
  • #25,100
What's crazy is that the neighbor who apparently sent neighbors a message asking them to send any video captured from January 31 - February 1 actually had the correct evidence link, that clearly showed the url domain was for the sheriff's department! What a mess!

Tweet with the neighbor's letter that was NOT from Pima County, but DID include the correct url to submit video - before Pima County got around to asking!
Meanwhile, Pima County Sheriff later tweets out a link, advising people to be careful to confirm who links are sent from. And includes a link to submit evidence, but it's just a scrambled letter url link, which was non-working (that was on a post which has since been deleted) for 50 minutes. Also, ironically the sheriff department's X account still does NOT have a blue checkmark, at least not on X! (It probably does on the Neighbors App).

Pima County Sheriff's Department
@PimaSheriff

The Pima County Sheriff’s Department periodically uses the Neighbors App to contact residents with home surveillance cameras. Requests will come from “Pima County Sheriff’s Department” with a blue checkmark. Please verify legitimate posts before sharing.

@PimaSheriff Investigators are requesting any video showing vehicles, traffic, pedestrians, or suspicious activity
from Jan. 1-Feb. 2, 2026, near E. Skyline Dr. & N. Campbell Ave. (2-mile radius). Submit footage: bit.ly/
30ca7DH
All video is being reviewed.
 

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