But we also aren't a criminal who contrived a home invasion and kidnapping (and likely a digitally anonymous ransom demand), and one who clearly had the foresight to dress adequately for the occasion. This almost certainly wasn't his first rodeo, and if it was he checked a lot of boxes.
JMO.
I strongly disagree. This looked like it was his first rodeo.
1. Didn't anticipate a very easily anticipated doorbell cam. $4 can of Krylon spray paint, instant recording disabling, instead of fumbling with latanas.
2. Open carries a late gen frame semi auto in cheap pistol holster (if it was even a real gun). Why not conceal and take it out when you need it? Puts his life at risk with awkward carry and non-profiled holster.
3. Wears bulky gloves that render proper use of firearm useless (can't even get finger in trigger guard, can't properly draw).
4. Distinguishable features on backpack - leaves brand logo, wears reflective strips know to shine on IR so any camera system.
5. Didn't even try to gray-man up or go practical all black and full face mask (which would be much less distinguishable on the IR Nest footage.
6. After all that clumsy attempt at PPE he uses a freakin' mouth light that transfers saliva. D'oh.
7. Disconnects the camera, instead of covering it. Thus making his image the last scene on a non-sub Nest server. Otherwise it would be re-written in the time cycle.
There's probably more...
I've said before this seems like some edgy teenager's attempt at playing kidnapper. All this above stuff had something "lost in translation."
We don't know if he was connected to ransom note at all (many experts now don't think so). We don't know if carried out a home invasion or kidnapping. We simply saw him approaching a front door on cam footage and doing petty vandalism. He could have been a look out, distraction, a part of a crew who did the actual dirty work, or a single bumbling fool that killed NG in his attempt.
As for if he pulled off the crime if it was him (probably was of course).
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. The house is a complete blindspot, secluded, dark no real cams, no neighbor sight-lines, and the mark is a 84 year old lady living alone w/ medical issues and a hearing aide.