Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[wibbleflea]

It's wild that LE still have the car of a convicted felon still living at home at almost 40 and so many people ignore that but keep accusing a family member without a criminal history who seems to have gotten on well with NG.

Understandable that the family should be suspects in people’s minds. They always would be, since they’re the nearby family, but in this case, they were also the last to see her.

But the car being held shouldn’t add to that – everyone’s seized stuff (or voluntarily handed over stuff) seems to be still with police. I’d have expected CP’s phone to have been returned because Cellebrite software should be able to create a complete clone of that data pretty quickly (from what I understand), but who knows.

So little about this case is clear to us, but investigators will know much more about people’s movements and alibis that night than we do. (We know nothing about those things, really.) The knowledge gap allows YouTubers to point fingers and make money. I think some of it is cynical.

 

[wibbleflea]

How about this

Amazon.com

View attachment 649265

But seriously something like this might work

Amazon.com

View attachment 649264

That last one is very like the one I had a couple of decades ago. Way brighter than you’d think for short distances in the dark, but not so bright that you’d see it from across the street. And small.

 

[Ghostwheel]

The way I understand it, a nosebleed creates splatter, not spray, because the blood is just dripping down--not spraying ...

Blood 'sprays' when someone is cut and the blood is spurting out because of heart pumping etc----different than just blood dripping AFTER the cut happens.

Do I have that right? IDK

Not being snarky, but what if one sneezes with a nose bleed? Do you get spray? (Real question, does anyone know?)

But the thin spatter on the porch was not from an initial cut, I don't think. That isn't what it looks like to me, anyway.

 

[SMK777]

Well if there was no vehicle-the offender(s) led/carried a150 lb woman to….where?

Very early in the investigation, Border Patrol sent units containing arguably the best trackers in the world. They couldn’t track a guy carrying a human, or an elderly person stumbling through the desert?

And if no vehicle-where did they go?

Regarding cameras creating security…

Do they prevent an offender from breaching a door or opening a window? No.

Do they prevent an intruder from laying hands on you? No.

Do they physically defeat the intruder? No.

Cameras create good feelings.
And they can help catch your rapist/muderer/torturer after the fact.
And that’s all folks.

I agree. The vehicle had to be somewhere close by. But I simply meant FBI has given us no BOLO.

 

[Katrinepa]

well they must be the stupidest kidnappers of all kidnappers, it is so illogical to think anybody would kidnap an 84 year old woman in poor health, as this would have been a concern, your victim has to stay alive for you to get the money, so again IMO she wasn't kidnapped,

Technically, she was kidnapped, even if she was near death. Legally a 'kidnapping', to be added to the list of charges by the prosecutor.

 

[Katrinepa]

Not being snarky, but what if one sneezes with a nose bleed? Do you get spray? (Real question, does anyone know?)

But the thin spatter on the porch was not from an initial cut, I don't think. That isn't what it looks like to me, anyway.

Forensics would agree with ghostwheel I believe, and some experts have as much as said so. In the end, does it really matter?.

 

[SMK777]

LD was 2 weeks after she went missing. I went back and watched the video and his hand did appear to be swollen and he was rubbing the wrist of his right hand but 2 weeks is a long time for swelling not to subside

Subacute swelling can last 3 weeks, especially if there is a sprain. I know from my own experience.

 

[Katrinepa]

I look at it a little differently.. Do you think anyone taking NG would not realize how old and frail she is, and would not assume she was on at least some kind of medication like so many frail and elderly are? (Not all, granted, but more than not). Is it logical to assume someone takes an elderly person thinking "They'll be just fine", but then panics when he finds out that at 84, she needs medication and has a pacemaker? I'm not saying it's outside the realm of possibility, but that takes "smart" out of the equation, imo.

I do think that the disclosure that she needed medication and had a pacemaker was partially a bid for proof of life. As in "Look, you took a person who may die soon without medication. Since your deadline is days after she would likely die, how do we know you have a live person?" And almost "Do you even WANT to keep her alive?" It was an attempt to speed things up, imo.

Suppose it was a planned 'job' concocted by a third party, and the actors didn't even know how frail she was, much less she had a pacemaker? No proof of life=no ransom paid. At this point, the family just wants her back, dead or alive, and willing to pay for any valid information leading to that goal. MOO

 

[Katrinepa]

Can you please clarify the items you think A disconnected from X, etc? I'm having trouble following. The data would get to the cloud through the Wi-Fi, right? I think I'm just overthinking what you said. Thanks!

All I know is what has been reported; Her pacemaker disconnected from WIFI at a specific time. The pacemaker had a signal, which would last for a certain amount of time, and so LE sent out Sniffers in the area, to try and capture any signal, to no avail. As far as the Nest camera, there was no paid subscription, but LE(I think at Quantico) was still able to capture some pix from the camera.
I'm sure someone with more detailed info will explain it better. MOO

 

[Napoli]

Not being snarky, but what if one sneezes with a nose bleed? Do you get spray? (Real question, does anyone know?)

But the thin spatter on the porch was not from an initial cut, I don't think. That isn't what it looks like to me, anyway.

Study Reports Error Rates for Bloodstain Pattern Analysis I think blood spatter/splatter etc is very overrated especially when there's blood all over a crime scene like other cases. All we know about this case is the front walkway. To ME it looks like drops and blobs. IMO, blood spatter analysis is like a Rorschach test. One person sees one thing, another person sees something entirely different. If i was on a jury, i would completely dismiss the testimony from these 'experts". It's blood! it contains DNA That's all I have to know..MOO

 

[wibbleflea]

About a week ago, Ashleigh Banfield reported that a second source familiar with the investigation repeated what her first source had said at the beginning: that a rear door was found wide open.

She also said that this second source told her that blood found inside the house (the source didn’t say where) matched the pattern seen on the porch, leading to the driveway. It had fallen vertically, with no smearing or signs indicating a struggle.

The relevant part starts at 2m28s and this link should begin there. The info above is covered in 2-3 minutes. I didn’t watch further than that.

 

[suntotheshine]

Thank you, I don’t know how to do that!

And permission from mod to use a Vulture article, due to the serious interview with FBI BAU.

My favorite line of the article: O’Toole says the planning of this crime “cannot be emphasized enough”…

IMO, the only thing that feels certain is that this was a carefully planned and targeted crime - not random. The brief lantana moment does not sway me from thinking an intense amount of planning went into the overall plan. Nearly everything else in this case I ebb and flow on.

Perhaps the most unique and surprising part of this case to me (aside from the fact that all evidence was not collected on Day 1 by the front door… where there was a blood trail!) is that there has been not one, but two, very big/loud/public SWAT-style detainments with no resulting arrests thus far. Statistically, that may not be all that unusual, but in a case with this many eyes on it, it just seems… odd. If both of those end up being completely unrelated, I am so curious about the information that loud confidence stemmed from.

Off-topic, but this is my first ever Websleuths post! This is an amazing forum! I started reading along with some cases a few years ago, starting with Nicola Bulley (or maybe Kiely Rodni came first?). But after closely following the recent Tepe murders and now this one, I finally took the plunge and signed up.

 

[Napoli]

Suppose it was a planned 'job' concocted by a third party, and the actors didn't even know how frail she was, much less she had a pacemaker? No proof of life=no ransom paid. At this point, the family just wants her back, dead or alive, and willing to pay for any valid information leading to that goal. MOO

The ransom note parts we know about say she was ok but scared. (first note). The money is NOT a part of this case, not the motive, IMO. Writer had knowledge but was not necessarily the perp. Writer knows the perp, has suspected the perp had an inordinate attachment to SG and penned the letters? Writer couldnt produce proof of life. He had no access to NG. So, finally family offers 1 million to be paid following the usual FBI guidelines. Writer of ransom note has long ago lost interest. I think it was a missed opportunity by the family. A gamble for sure, but I do think the ransom writer was either the perp or someone who was equipped to give great intel.

Since SG gave many weird Instagram responses to these notes, I think the perp wrote them. Those notes contained something that made SG respond the way she did with the odd phrases. The perp was toying with her. He was taunting her. He wanted to see her squirm. She did. Mission accomplished. The beast within him has been quieted for the moment. Perp is back to every day life . JMO

 

[Sadi]

I just can't understand why AG's car would still be part of the investigation after all this time.

It may have been used to transport NG home but it should have been cleared since whoever dropped NG off and the time was much earlier, as far as we know from the time she actually disappeared.

Drop off was evening hours and it seems nothing criminal transpired till the early morning hours.

Surely by now they know where that vehicle was driven and when it was returned home and by who, why the heck would they continue to hold it once they had that information? Which should have been proven within days if not hrs.

To me it makes no sense, they should have been able to tell very quickly whether or not that vehicle held any evidentiary value. Add that to the fact that they also apparently have NG vehicle it makes you wonder why those two vehicles would hold any significance whatsoever. They should have been processed and released extremely quickly if alibi's checked out etc. Such a weird case.

Something is rotten in Denmark

I have the same questions, something isn’t right about this. Also, why did LE spend hours at their home and taking pictures in the garage? Maybe LE took financial records that were relevant to people who were hired to work at both of their homes? I wonder if their car having some kind of evidence on it from N’s driveway?

 

[Pharmasgirl]

My favorite line of the article: O’Toole says the planning of this crime “cannot be emphasized enough”…

IMO, the only thing that feels certain is that this was a carefully planned and targeted crime - not random. The brief lantana moment does not sway me from thinking an intense amount of planning went into the overall plan. Nearly everything else in this case I ebb and flow on.

Perhaps the most unique and surprising part of this case to me (aside from the fact that all evidence was not collected on Day 1 by the front door… where there was a blood trail!) is that there has been not one, but two, very big/loud/public SWAT-style detainments with no resulting arrests thus far. Statistically, that may not be all that unusual, but in a case with this many eyes on it, it just seems… odd. If both of those end up being completely unrelated, I am so curious about the information that loud confidence stemmed from.

Off-topic, but this is my first ever Websleuths post! This is an amazing forum! I started reading along with some cases a few years ago, starting with Nicola Bulley (or maybe Kiely Rodni came first?). But after closely following the recent Tepe murders and now this one, I finally took the plunge and signed up.

Welcome to Websleuths: Hope you enjoy it here as much as we do!

 

[Rick7788]

With everything that has been theorized, I can't help but go back to the actual scene of the crime. We have no idea about the inside or back of the house. They are keeping that under wraps. But I cannot get over the fact that they basically left the front "as is." They did not take the front doormat for further testing of fibers or blood stains. Perhaps they got all that they needed from just doing something there, but that just doesn't make sense to me. Also, let's not forget, as far as we know, in the beginning they did not have any video of the perp on the front porch, so they would have no idea about why there was Lantana all over the porch. There was blood, so why was not every piece of Lantana picked up and brought into evidence for testing, again for fibers or any DNA that the perp might have left behind, because again, no video means they didn't know he was wearing gloves. Everything should have been removed and brought in for testing, including the Nest bracket, which they originally took, but it was many days later. The actual doorbell is another, they don't know that it was touched.


Again, they might have the most outstanding forensics team in the world, I am just a guy observing from the outside. Perhaps all of that stuff was tested thoroughly, but wouldn't they want to present any of that for evidence later if there was a trial? My last thing that boggles my mind is that it appears that the whole driveway is not really paved, but consists of dirt and maybe rock. I have heard nothing of any testing for tire marks or anything. The whole crime scene is bizarre. BE just walked up filming the blood stains. Pizza delivery guy just walks right up. Elderly care just steps into the blood scene and leaves a card. I have kind of posted all of this before but it just doesn't seem right. I am NOT questioning or bashing LE, it just doesn't make sense to ME.

I have listened to many podcasts on this case and heard probably over 2 dozen experts weigh in. Ex FBI, LE, etc etc.

The single thing that astounds ALL of them most is LE not taking the doormat away for further testing. Have yet to hear anyone that is not troubled by that.

They came back and took the Nest bracket after the video surfaced.....seems like that would have been the perfect opportunity to take the doormat as well. You would think.

 

[Angeleyes_7]

My favorite line of the article: O’Toole says the planning of this crime “cannot be emphasized enough”…

IMO, the only thing that feels certain is that this was a carefully planned and targeted crime - not random. The brief lantana moment does not sway me from thinking an intense amount of planning went into the overall plan. Nearly everything else in this case I ebb and flow on.

Perhaps the most unique and surprising part of this case to me (aside from the fact that all evidence was not collected on Day 1 by the front door… where there was a blood trail!) is that there has been not one, but two, very big/loud/public SWAT-style detainments with no resulting arrests thus far. Statistically, that may not be all that unusual, but in a case with this many eyes on it, it just seems… odd. If both of those end up being completely unrelated, I am so curious about the information that loud confidence stemmed from.

Off-topic, but this is my first ever Websleuths post! This is an amazing forum! I started reading along with some cases a few years ago, starting with Nicola Bulley (or maybe Kiely Rodni came first?). But after closely following the recent Tepe murders and now this one, I finally took the plunge and signed up.

Great first post! Welcome to the forum!

 

[Katrinepa]

Yes, I agree, hard to believe he wasn’t caught on a camera. He definitely had a car! He must have thought of this, he thought of a lot of other details! JMO
I get the impression NGs neighborhood, and maybe a lot of Tucson, are very interested in keeping the Wild West Wild! Dark sky, privacy rights, desert terrain, etc.

Wild West, Privacy rights? => hardly any cameras, hard to track a getaway car, catch criminals.
(Locals have said yes, lots of break ins in the high end Foothill area. Locals said Tucson has crime and cartels, so don’t know why not more cameras). IMO
Dark sky, great observatories stargazing=> very dark, criminals can act, cover of darkness.
Native plants, desert foliage=>rough terrain, lots of places to hide someone, hard to search.

I’m just trying to understand the mentality of few cameras, in an area where locals said there is a fair amount of crime.

JMO

The terrain is called 'Nature'. The earth is hard there, the temperatures high, the plants are those that are able to grow naturally in the environmental conditions. Nothing to do with wild west or choice. Also, nothing is definite, which is why there is an investigation. Crime happens everywhere, and from one podcast I saw with a local LE person, policies were in the general area, to allow free bus rides, and this LE guy pointed out that criminal minds can now travel free, from the city to the suburb/rural areas, and vice versa. Not my own opinion, but perhaps another piece of info. Many love the area to live in. Different strokes for different folks.

 

[No it's not]

Not being snarky, but what if one sneezes with a nose bleed? Do you get spray? (Real question, does anyone know?)

But the thin spatter on the porch was not from an initial cut, I don't think. That isn't what it looks like to me, anyway.

Yes, sneezing with a bleeding nose can create an ‘expirated bloodstain pattern’ according to several blood spatter experts on google.

-Nin

 

[SMK777]

The single thing that astounds ALL of them most is LE not taking the doormat away for further testing. Have yet to hear anyone that is not troubled by that.

It's very surprising and disconcerting.