UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #19

[jackal67]

Clearly not, there are a few factors that point towards Claudia leaving for work in the morning:

1) Claudia spoke to her Mam on the phone and told her she was going to bed at 9 to get up for work in the morning at 5. That was Claudia's intention. Anybody disputing this can only really argue that either her Mam was lying or Claudia was lying. I'm going to go with them telling the truth rather than one of these statistically highly improbable theories that require all sorts of mental acrobatics to make them work.

2) There was no sign of a struggle in Claudia's home.

3) There were no text messages on Claudia's phone to suggest she was meeting somebody that night.

4) Items missing from Claudia's home were those that she needed for work.

That's a simple but effective case for Claudia leaving for work that morning, and it is more likely than the alternative.

OK but you have been adamant about the Jewelry in your last few posts so clearly this is a big clue for you as you have gone to so much trouble explaining why Claudia wouldnt have gone out the night before without her jewelry on?
If your theory about Claudia walking to work is correct can you explain what exactly you think happened ?

 

[JimmyDurham]

I don't know what these statistics are to which you often refer. However, there are many cases where women are killed at home and their bodies then disposed of.

It's already been stated that the majority of women are murdered in their home.

A pertinent point is that such murders are almost invariably at the hands of a lone partner, a lone ex-partner or a lone somebody who wants to be the partner (in line with your examples provided). The general consensus among those who put forward the murdered at home theory, is not that it was a lone man (either partner or ex-partner).

In the event Claudia was murdered in her home, possible but unlikely, then statistically you are looking at a partner or an ex-partner; you are certainly not looking at a syndicate and some sort of cover up. The latter is statistically highly unlikely.

So, who is the lone partner or lone ex-partner?

It is hardly surprising that Claudia's relatives played down her relationships. It would be unlikely that Claudia would update her church going parents on affairs with married men. However, the police and the press were clear on this issue.

The police weren't clear at all. Mysterious acquaintances apparently and then the press did what they do to sell newspapers. Claudia's close mates said she was nothing whatsoever like the press version. And, where did all of these fellas come from? She worked full time, spent most of her spare time in the Nags Head, she didn't use the internet and so that wasn't a source. Seems the lass was some sort of magician conjuring up fellas out of thin air.

 

[jackal67]

It's already been stated that the majority of women are murdered in their home.

A pertinent point is that such murders are almost invariably at the hands of a lone partner, a lone ex-partner or a lone somebody who wants to be the partner (in line with your examples provided). The general consensus among those who put forward the murdered at home theory, is not that it was a lone man (either partner or ex-partner).

In the event Claudia was murdered in her home, possible but unlikely, then statistically you are looking at a partner or an ex-partner; you are certainly not looking at a syndicate and some sort of cover up. The latter is statistically highly unlikely.

So, who is the lone partner or lone ex-partner?



The police weren't clear at all. Mysterious acquaintances apparently and then the press did what they do to sell newspapers. Claudia's close mates said she was nothing whatsoever like the press version. And, where did all of these fellas come from? She worked full time, spent most of her spare time in the Nags Head, she didn't use the internet and so that wasn't a source. Seems the lass was some sort of magician conjuring up fellas out of thin air.

It was stated after her dissapearance that several men reported to the police station to admit they had been involved with Claudia . Came forward of their own accord to avoid the inevitable police questioning which they wouldnt want their partners to hear about
As long back as when she still lived at home she worked in the village pub and was involved with a married customer . He was questioned by police
She definitely also had an affair with a NH customer LH which broke up his marriage.
There was also talk of a sex video which his wife found in his car.
If you have read every thread on here from the beginning as most of us have you will find all this information

 

[Alpha Zero]

Clearly not, there are a few factors that point towards Claudia leaving for work in the morning:

1) Claudia spoke to her Mam on the phone and told her she was going to bed at 9 to get up for work in the morning at 5. That was Claudia's intention. Anybody disputing this can only really argue that either her Mam was lying or Claudia was lying. I'm going to go with them telling the truth rather than one of these statistically highly improbable theories that require all sorts of mental acrobatics to make them work.

2) There was no sign of a struggle in Claudia's home.

3) There were no text messages on Claudia's phone to suggest she was meeting somebody that night.

4) Items missing from Claudia's home were those that she needed for work.

That's a simple but effective case for Claudia leaving for work that morning, and it is more likely than the alternative.

1 . It was mentioned she potentially wasn’t at home when she was on the phone to her Mum saying she was going to bed, assuming she was talking to her mum on her mobile, or she was lying to her mum and was on her way out. Claudia has lied about a lot of her relationships so lying to her parents isn’t out of the question about her whereabouts. Her mum to this day still says it’s all lies about her relationships despite the police proving it to be true.

2. This was because she was potentially lured away ( meeting a man known to her) and was ambushed there, rumoured to be one of the main suspects brothers house which was never searched until a long time after

3. That we are aware of, we will never know what texts Claudia for on her phone for obvious reasons, but there were sightings of a people turning up every now and again, she could have had a visitor knock on the back door and go in a car via the back through the nags head where cctv wasn’t operating ( there were reports of hearing screaming in the alleyway if I remember) so she could have been bundled into a car.

4. The items missing could be 2 things, the straighteners were a murder weapon and were disposed of by the perpetrators, and the other items removed to make it look like claudia was going to work ( the house was set up too remember to make it look like she had gone to work but the bed was almost too nice to as slept in it) and a bag I believe was found , I think it could have been planted on the route to work ( to suggest she had walked but was kidnapped on the way)

Or….she arranged to meet someone, took her items to the persons house in preparation to use in the morning for work after staying there and they were disposed of by the people who harmed her.

Dai Malyn knows a lot about this case and all other investigators are now on the verdict that she never left for work despite it being the initial narrative. There is also no cctv of her walking to work

 

[wtiger]

she never set off to walk to work - largely due to already being dead. imho

 

[Professor Moriarty]

she never set off to walk to work - largely due to already being dead. imho

Yep. No CCTV or eye witnesses for her walking to work.

 

[Alpha Zero]

Yep. No CCTV or eye witnesses for her walking to work.

Only red herrings and suggestions that there was an arguing couple spotted that morning not far from the University, but it’s never been confirmed to be true. I think it’s just a clever piece of deception

 

[JimmyDurham]

If your theory about Claudia walking to work is correct can you explain what exactly you think happened ?

Not without some meaningful pointers, no.

I certainly know that the contents of Claudia's home and Claudia's actions the night before, suggests she probably left for work that morning.

What happens from there is guesswork, except she probably didn't reach Melrosegate CCTV, at least on foot anyway.

There are two possible sightings of Claudia that morning. Eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable, primarily because the human mind doesn't work like a camera taking pictures for posterity, but such testimony is somewhat more reliable when the witness has reason to take notice, e.g. an argument. On balance, I'd say the woman probably wasn't Claudia, but there is a slim chance that it was.

Either way, I have no particular theory as to what happened when Claudia left her front door but I certainly would have been thoroughly investigating anyone known to have given Claudia a lift to work in the morning and anyone who knew Claudia who was known to have been in the area that morning. There's a simple thought process for that: probably left for work in the morning, a realistic prospect that Claudia knew her murderer and accepted a lift, given she was going to work that's where she would have accepted a lift to, given that's where she was going to then there's a realistic chance that the lift was from somebody who also worked in that area/place, that would mean somebody who had given Claudia a lift before.

 

[JimmyDurham]

It was stated after her dissapearance that several men reported to the police station to admit they had been involved with Claudia . Came forward of their own accord to avoid the inevitable police questioning which they wouldnt want their partners to hear about
As long back as when she still lived at home she worked in the village pub and was involved with a married customer . He was questioned by police
She definitely also had an affair with a NH customer LH which broke up his marriage.
There was also talk of a sex video which his wife found in his car.
If you have read every thread on here from the beginning as most of us have you will find all this information

One confirmed affair with a married man is not the same as the version of Claudia printed by the press.

The other confirmed affair with a man in a relationship was a 10 year relationship and Claudia's expectation was that the man would choose her. That 10 year wait doesn't suggest this is somebody moving from man in a relationship to another man in a relationship.

As far as I'm aware, there are no other confirmed affairs outside of gossip and media frenzy. Feel free to provide this information, and no, I've no interest in going on a wild goose chase reading back through 50 pages or whatever.

 

[JimmyDurham]

Dai Malyn knows a lot about this case

They don't know that much. They've arrested loads of people and they cannot get any of them into a court of law! It's incredible that people place their faith in the polis (with regard to this case) when the truth is they've spent nigh on 15 years trying and failing.

 

[jackal67]

Not without some meaningful pointers, no.

I certainly know that the contents of Claudia's home and Claudia's actions the night before, suggests she probably left for work that morning.

What happens from there is guesswork, except she probably didn't reach Melrosegate CCTV, at least on foot anyway.

There are two possible sightings of Claudia that morning. Eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable, primarily because the human mind doesn't work like a camera taking pictures for posterity, but such testimony is somewhat more reliable when the witness has reason to take notice, e.g. an argument. On balance, I'd say the woman probably wasn't Claudia, but there is a slim chance that it was.

Either way, I have no particular theory as to what happened when Claudia left her front door but I certainly would have been thoroughly investigating anyone known to have given Claudia a lift to work in the morning and anyone who knew Claudia who was known to have been in the area that morning. There's a simple thought process for that: probably left for work in the morning, a realistic prospect that Claudia knew her murderer and accepted a lift, given she was going to work that's where she would have accepted a lift to, given that's where she was going to then there's a realistic chance that the lift was from somebody who also worked in that area/place, that would mean somebody who had given Claudia a lift before.

That would mean that the person giving Claudia a lift to work would also have failed to turn up for work? Surely the police would have investigated such people? As they originally thought she had left for work so this would have been their first lines of enquiry surely?

 

[jackal67]

One confirmed affair with a married man is not the same as the version of Claudia printed by the press.

The other confirmed affair with a man in a relationship was a 10 year relationship and Claudia's expectation was that the man would choose her. That 10 year wait doesn't suggest this is somebody moving from man in a relationship to another man in a relationship.

As far as I'm aware, there are no other confirmed affairs outside of gossip and media frenzy. Feel free to provide this information, and no, I've no interest in going on a wild goose chase reading back through 50 pages or whatever.

Dont think it was a 10 year relationship was it? What about the men who went to police to divulge their relationships with Claudia? The police will know the facts of how many men Claudia had affairs with but will certainly not have made this public. So of course I cant provide links ! Any one of them could be a suspect

 

[jackal67]

They don't know that much. They've arrested loads of people and they cannot get any of them into a court of law! It's incredible that people place their faith in the polis (with regard to this case) when the truth is they've spent nigh on 15 years trying and failing.

That is just your opinion though not fact!

 

[JimmyDurham]

That would mean that the person giving Claudia a lift to work would also have failed to turn up for work?

Possibly:

1) Maybe the person turned up for work late but due to work circumstances nobody noticed he was late.

2) Maybe the lift was given not long after Claudia left her front door. Assuming the person started work around the same time as Claudia then that would still be about 45 minutes before the person gets into work. A lot can happen in 45 minutes.

3) Maybe the person who gave Claudia a lift started work at 8, giving over 2 and a half hours for it to unfold.

Dunno. As I say, guesswork.

Surely the police would have investigated such people? As they originally thought she had left for work so this would have been their first lines of enquiry surely?

I'd have thought so, but how thoroughly is another matter. The police believed in "mysterious acquaintances" which could have led them to overlook much simpler and much more viable propositions.

 

[jackal67]

One confirmed affair with a married man is not the same as the version of Claudia printed by the press.

The other confirmed affair with a man in a relationship was a 10 year relationship and Claudia's expectation was that the man would choose her. That 10 year wait doesn't suggest this is somebody moving from man in a relationship to another man in a relationship.

As far as I'm aware, there are no other confirmed affairs outside of gossip and media frenzy. Feel free to provide this information, and no, I've no interest in going on a wild goose chase reading back through 50 pages or whatever.

NOt a wild goose change if you have a genuine interest in this case. You may find information that contradicts your current theory. That is what most of us do here and how we come up with theories and ideas

 

[jackal67]

They don't know that much. They've arrested loads of people and they cannot get any of them into a court of law! It's incredible that people place their faith in the polis (with regard to this case) when the truth is they've spent nigh on 15 years trying and failing.

This is often what happens in cold cases but any slip up new information etc could lead to an arrest.
Look at David Fuller caught after 25 years it will happen in time I am sure

 

[JimmyDurham]

NOt a wild goose change if you have a genuine interest in this case. You may find information that contradicts your current theory. That is what most of us do here and how we come up with theories and ideas

I've read them before. When it all unravels, there is no source of any meaningful provenance. It's generally community gossip regurgitated on social media and supported with: "the polis know everything", which is unnerving given that the police haven't even been able to get a case into a court of law for nigh on 15 years!

 

[JimmyDurham]

Dont think it was a 10 year relationship was it? What about the men who went to police to divulge their relationships with Claudia? The police will know the facts of how many men Claudia had affairs with but will certainly not have made this public. So of course I cant provide links ! Any one of them could be a suspect

According to the lad involved, aye. That same lad is on record as stating that the press version of Claudia was nothing like the real Claudia, and he knew her very well.

Which men divulged to the police? How many men? Do you have a source for this?

 

[JimmyDurham]

1 . It was mentioned she potentially wasn’t at home when she was on the phone to her Mum saying she was going to bed, assuming she was talking to her mum on her mobile, or she was lying to her mum and was on her way out. Claudia has lied about a lot of her relationships so lying to her parents isn’t out of the question about her whereabouts. Her mum to this day still says it’s all lies about her relationships despite the police proving it to be true.

2. This was because she was potentially lured away ( meeting a man known to her) and was ambushed there, rumoured to be one of the main suspects brothers house which was never searched until a long time after

3. That we are aware of, we will never know what texts Claudia for on her phone for obvious reasons, but there were sightings of a people turning up every now and again, she could have had a visitor knock on the back door and go in a car via the back through the nags head where cctv wasn’t operating ( there were reports of hearing screaming in the alleyway if I remember) so she could have been bundled into a car.

4. The items missing could be 2 things, the straighteners were a murder weapon and were disposed of by the perpetrators, and the other items removed to make it look like claudia was going to work ( the house was set up too remember to make it look like she had gone to work but the bed was almost too nice to as slept in it) and a bag I believe was found , I think it could have been planted on the route to work ( to suggest she had walked but was kidnapped on the way)

We know the text messages on Claudia's phone. None of them suggested she was meeting someone that night.

I've quoted your own post, Alpha, and it is convoluted and statistically highly unlikely. It's not supported by any evidence either, e.g. sighting of people turning up? No, not at all. CCTV shows a fella walking down the street where there are various properties and he wasn't out of sight long enough to reach Claudia's back door and knock on it.

The simple answer is often the most boring and least entertaining but it's also more often than not how it turns out.

Murderers of women aren't criminal masterminds who leave no evidence behind after a clean up operation, cover up, ferrying bodies around in the night and a 15 years wall of collective silence. Sometimes they just get lucky in that nobody turned the corner at the right time.

 

[jackal67]

According to the lad involved, aye. That same lad is on record as stating that the press version of Claudia was nothing like the real Claudia, and he knew her very well.

Which men divulged to the police? How many men? Do you have a source for this?

It was fairly early on in the investigation . The men weren,t named obviously. but I remember it being in a police statement and most likely what changed the focus of the investigation from early morning abduction to looking at Claudias private life