Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #11

[Anxala]

Some might walk away in the opposite direction on hearing barking (if they didn’t see a dog in distress but only heard it I mean).

Yes, particularly if you have a barky dog of your own (which I do) and my usual reaction upon hearing barking is to go in the opposite direction so as not to disrupt either her or the other dog/owner's walk.

 

[Mr X]

So I keep seeing the water depth being quoted as 0.4m, anybody actually concluded the depth at the point near the bench?

This suggests it is around 7 metres typically upstream. The 0.4m one often quoted is on or after the weir which is bound to be different to the rest of the river.

There are two more monitoring stations upstream, both suggesting around 7 metres normally and same on 27th JanView attachment 402169.

View attachment 402167
And this is the weir station:

View attachment 402170

7 metres above datum. Not water depth.

 

[Mr X]

IMO the small building nearby is a pumping station and it is extracting water from the river on a regular basis. A body in the water could well be drawn into the inlet.

Of course this will have been checked as it is a very obvious feature of the area.

 

[Fishwick]

Just running a wild thought over in my head and sharing. I'm not saying this is what happened, I'm just throwing what little we know up in the air and seeing how it falls.

If we suspend our notions of what is likely for one moment, and accept that someone other than NB could operate her phone then it becomes only an assumption that she herself clicked on the phone link for the teams meeting (camera and audio off). It is possible to send a text on someone else's phone which appears to be from them if they have access to it. The only witness sightings were from a distance (dogs interacted but did they interact?), then the last physical interaction with NB for definite would be dropping the kids off at the school as the kids and teachers/other parents could not be mistaken. Could it be that it was someone other than NB in the field but dressed up in the same clothes, of the same size, same hair, with local knowledge, who would be able to control the dog as they had walked it before? The bench scene then being staged. Whatever happened to NB having happened immediately after the school drop.

Please do tell me if there are obvious holes in this so that I can put it in the discarded list.

I'm still leaning towards a possible abduction, having abandoned the river as a theory.

Almost everyone has a lock on their phone IMO - that’s the difficulty with the ‘other user of her phone’ theory.

 

[ginnyw]

As the days go by in this case I'm leaning back towards the most likely scenario being that NB is in the river (IMO). But four things still prevent me from fully believing this: 1) that the water was shallow enough for somebody to stand up in according to expert PF. 2) that it was also very still and calm on that day (27th January) 3) that PF in his long experience could say that a body would usually sink down and stay in the initial place for some considerable time and 4) that police divers were in the river on the first day and for several days after that until PF himself conducted his sonar scanning of that portion of the river and all found nothing. Having said all that I still think that the river is more likely than a sudden abduction/assault by a stranger. But that still leaves the possibility of somebody known to NB, or recognised by her. And the other, less discussed theory that she simply walked away from her own life which is hard to believe as she clearly doted on her kids. I get an odd feeling from the last CCTV images of Nicola at her car. I don't know why. Something not right about her on that morning IMO. JMO. MOO.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

It seems an interesting bit of river. A gauge further up is at Kirkland bridge and shows this for the last week.

(Gaugemap.co.uk)

View attachment 402168

IMO from that one could suggest that it is either subject to tidal influence or there is some sort of water extraction happening.

IMO I would go with extraction. Possibly for agriculture or feeding another watercourse.

This measuring station is well above the Weir.

That is showing a variation and you may be right but it's still only about 4" difference between the low an high on that graphic.The high being at about 2 feet (0.61m)

 

[CSIAngus]

Almost everyone has a lock on their phone IMO - that’s the difficulty with the ‘other user of her phone’ theory.

I appreciate what you are saying, but that's more assumption a) that NB's phone had a lock b) that the unlock was not known to someone other than her, c) that it was not unlocked at the time and kept unlocked.

 

[Mr X]

I think the principle of searching a river and finding nothing is flawed as a strategy.

There must be something in there. Whatever it is, piece of waterlogged wood or whatever you have to remove it. Otherwise you could miss things. It seems obvious.

I'm sure a small area search with everything removed would be a better use of time than a wide area search were someone with a screen on it spends time on the surface directing the divers.

Clear the riverbed completely in any deep parts. Leave nothing behind.

 

[Teabag57]

Just running a wild thought over in my head and sharing. I'm not saying this is what happened, I'm just throwing what little we know up in the air and seeing how it falls.

If we suspend our notions of what is likely for one moment, and accept that someone other than NB could operate her phone then it becomes only an assumption that she herself clicked on the phone link for the teams meeting (camera and audio off). It is possible to send a text on someone else's phone which appears to be from them if they have access to it. The only witness sightings were from a distance (dogs interacted but did they interact?), then the last physical interaction with NB for definite would be dropping the kids off at the school as the kids and teachers/other parents could not be mistaken. Could it be that it was someone other than NB in the field but dressed up in the same clothes, of the same size, same hair, with local knowledge, who would be able to control the dog as they had walked it before? The bench scene then being staged. Whatever happened to NB having happened immediately after the school drop.

Please do tell me if there are obvious holes in this so that I can put it in the discarded list.

I'm still leaning towards a possible abduction, having abandoned the river as a theory.

So, someone “in cahoots” with NB and aiding and abetting her “escape?” Are those your thoughts or something else?

 

[Pharmer1908]

This tatty red van?

 

[CSIAngus]

I appreciate what you are saying, but that's more assumption a) that NB's phone had a lock b) that the unlock was not known to someone other than her, c) that it was not unlocked at the time and kept unlocked.

So, someone “in cahoots” with NB and aiding and abetting her “escape?” Are those your thoughts or something else?

No, my wild thought has ill intent not NB as a participant but I'm open to all possibilities. I don't think she would willingly leave her children.

 

[dotr]

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[Mr X]

Netflix.

 

[Fishwick]

I appreciate what you are saying, but that's more assumption a) that NB's phone had a lock b) that the unlock was not known to someone other than her, c) that it was not unlocked at the time and kept unlocked.

I would say all of those assumptions are fairly high probability though. a) I don’t know anyone who doesn’t use a lock on their phone. b) Yes someone else may know it but that’s likely to be people very close to her (who have probably been looked into). c) When a phone is unlocked it will only remain unlocked in use or a short time afterwards. A possibility for sure but I doubt someone abducting her is focussing on keeping the phone unlocked rather than keeping her under control.

Not saying it’s an impossible theory just that it seems unlikely (admittedly most theories do at this point).

 

[Fishwick]

This tatty red van?

View attachment 402175

Bombshell.

 

[Firstsnow4]

Just running a wild thought over in my head and sharing. I'm not saying this is what happened, I'm just throwing what little we know up in the air and seeing how it falls.

If we suspend our notions of what is likely for one moment, and accept that someone other than NB could operate her phone then it becomes only an assumption that she herself clicked on the phone link for the teams meeting (camera and audio off). It is possible to send a text on someone else's phone which appears to be from them if they have access to it. The only witness sightings were from a distance (dogs interacted but did they interact?), then the last physical interaction with NB for definite would be dropping the kids off at the school as the kids and teachers/other parents could not be mistaken. Could it be that it was someone other than NB in the field but dressed up in the same clothes, of the same size, same hair, with local knowledge, who would be able to control the dog as they had walked it before? The bench scene then being staged. Whatever happened to NB having happened immediately after the school drop.

Please do tell me if there are obvious holes in this so that I can put it in the discarded list.

I'm still leaning towards a possible abduction, having abandoned the river as a theory.

I can see your point on this - but what would be the motive? To help her get away unseen? Staged for some kind of gain? In cahoots with another person who kidnaps NB whilst she walks the dog? Where did this person (who was dressed the same) go to after staging the items? JMO.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

This Faulding guy is really starting to wind me up. He was hired as a search and rescuer, so why is he passing himself off as an all-purpose detective? Telling the Sun that she could have "run off with a lover" when he has no evidence whatsoever is bang out of order! Obviously the police must have an open mind about such things (they'd be failing in their job if they didn't) but there's no need for him to be saying that in the press.

This is the Sun - do you believe he actually said that?....Really? Awful publication.

 

[Pharmer1908]

IMO the small building nearby is a pumping station and it is extracting water from the river on a regular basis. A body in the water could well be drawn into the inlet.

Of course this will have been checked as it is a very obvious feature of the area.

A body cant be dragged into the inlet as if this could happen then trees etc could also. It will have a mesh.

 

[SuperEye]

Does anyone know why Paul couldn't look after the children the night before when Nicola asked her parents to stay longer because she was at a meeting with her boss in Garstang? IMO it might provide some reason for the differing schedule on the Friday morning leaving the house.
Evening Standard Article Reference

 

[Mr X]

Has anyone seen any footage of what the sonar man is looking at while scanning the river bed? It is such good equipment and so expensive that one assumes there would be some footage just to give us examples of what the display is like.

Anyone? I mean actual footage not just a few seconds in a news report.