Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[PKatePR]

I completely understand why people are more worried and I really do hope not to be proved wrong (her poor poor family) but it does seem perfectly plausible that:

She is sat on the bench on a Teams call.
At the same time is throwing the ball for the dog. Harness is also off as she takes it off when playing fetch in case it gets dirty when dog in the undergrowth etc. This is why her phone is next to her on the bench because she is using her hands to throw the ball and rethrow when dog returns etc.
Throws the ball it goes into the water, she (reactionary) runs to the edge to prevent the dog going in and goes over.
Yes dogs usually follow but dogs are also super smart and if it sensed the danger of going in likely didnt follow.

An absolutely tragic accident but I can see how this would happen - if you were reacting quickly and the phone was on the bench anyway, you wouldn't suddenly think, hang on let me put my phone in my pocket. You'd likely think you'd be back at the bench in a moment and no-one else is around. Those on the call would be sadly none the wiser as she was muted and camera off.

 

[SpursGyal]

If she went in the water, you’d like to think considering how quickly the search was commenced she couldn’t have passed over the weir.

 

[Edinlass]

It’s 0.4M at Garstang right now, don’t quote me for last Friday but it was around the same.


I couldn’t say for certain. Everything I’m saying is speculation based on having been in the river when it was higher than this and flowing faster. That being said, it was considerably warmer than it is now. The water temp would have been around 5 degrees based on what I know from fishing, somewhere around whatever the average air temperature had been for the last few days. But not as cold as any still water pond or lake. To the touch it would have been very cold, theoretically cold enough to cause a person problems and there might have been a spot deep enough to drown. I don’t think it would have been deep or fast enough to take a body out to sea or beyond the weir though IMO.

Thanks so much for your knowledge

 

[Laura30]

Do we think we can assume that the gilet described is the one in this photo? Maybe I'm being pedantic, but it's not ankle length, it is knee length. Either way, it's not ideal for swimming in, but it would be great if the reporting/descriptions were more accurate. Also, why don't they release a picture of the specific clothing (if they know)?

There is also a photo from the 29th November showing her in another gilet (doesn't show length) but definitely not the same one as the centre parcs one as the zip and button popper at the top are different. It maybe that she had a certain coat and boots for dog walking in as many people do.

 

[Taskforce88]

If she went in the water, you’d like to think considering how quickly the search was commenced she couldn’t have passed over the weir.

How quickly did the search begin? If the water and flow were high then NB could have been well beyond the weir by the time SAR teams began looking.

 

[Edinlass]

Going in a river during the summer is vastly different. As I said to a previous poster, if you're feeling adventurous with no medical conditions and someone to supervise you - Run a bath purely with the cold tap and then get in quickly without pausing and dunk your whole body including your head in. You'll have the benefit of the sides of the bath to pull up with, knowledge you're safe and it will be something you were expecting, but imagine you didn't and think about if you're in a state to be making logical, well informed decisions.

Nah I’d rather not tbh but thanks.

I’m not saying she couldn’t get into difficulty, if she has then that’s a tragedy in itself I’m wondering why she hasn’t been found.

 

[sitaford1]

Im holding on to that 10 mins. Could something have happened in that 10 mins possibly that took her away from the scene via an area not with CCTV or hidden in a car maybe?? IMO.

Well if so then the potential situation is much much more horrific, <modsnip> JMO

 

[PineTreeSleuther]

I’ve read depths on this thread for the bit right by the bench of 18 inches to 18 feet! I don’t know if we have had a definitive answer - seemed yesterday that a video showed a diver submerged enough in the water there that he couldn’t be seen, so looked like at least 1m. I think the depth is variable along that stretch.

Personally I find it really hard to believe she fell in and still suspect foul play. The lack of marks / anything being recovered despite such a rapid search just feels wrong to me.

 

[Firstsnow4]

Well if so then the potential situation is much much more horrific, <modsnip> JMO

No there is potential that she might be alive somewhere rather than drowned. IMO.

 

[wens67]

I read Willow is stuck to her ball. If NB has fallen in then I can see a scenario where she has thrown the ball, it has rolled down the bank, Willow has barked agitated to tell NB her ball is in the water. Willow may not have wanted to jump in cos cold etc or prefers going from the shallow. NB is trying to listen to call but can't, concentrate cos Willow barking, goes down embankment, sees ball in water and leans over with a twig etc to bring it to her. Willow excited gets under her feet as dogs do and loses her footing and falls in.

 

[WestLondoner]

Nah I’d rather not tbh but thanks.

I’m not saying she couldn’t get into difficulty, if she has then that’s a tragedy in itself I’m wondering why she hasn’t been found.

Which is kind of the exam question. If the police know exactly where and when she fell in the river a week ago, why haven't they found her yet?

 

[Gavlar1985]

It’s frustrating given the police believe this to be a tragic accident of falling into that water that they allowed the media full access to the site in the days following the incident. Surely it should have been cordoned off from the get go.

 

[SpursGyal]

How quickly did the search begin? If the water and flow were high then NB could have been well beyond the weir by the time SAR teams began looking.

The search was commenced within 2 hours, before the weir, the river is not tidal, and isn’t reported to be fast flowing. People were in the area within the 10 minute window they give of her potentially falling in, for her to pass the weir she would have had to go OVER it at pretty much surface level.

 

[kittythehare]

Im holding on to that 10 mins. Could something have happened in that 10 mins possibly that took her away from the scene via an area not with CCTV or hidden in a car maybe?? IMO.

I don't know about the car because I'm useless at distances.
It's possible she could have been attacked, it's possible she could have been ordered at gunpoint to go somewhere or else..
It's possible that her and her abductor left via the lane that doesn't have full cover..
It's slim, very slim so I don't want to spread false hope and it is also highly unlikely cos Supt Riley wasn't lying.
Figure out minutes from table to lane.. work back from there?

 

[jtg65]

If she slipped and fell as seems to be the conclusion police have made, it still doesn't seem logical to me she'd go under and drown without trying to climb / scratch the side or yell out for help. Perhaps she fell and was knocked unconscious upon landing or was injured to the extent she couldn't keep herself above water.

 

[PineTreeSleuther]

I read Willow is stuck to her ball. If NB has fallen in then I can see a scenario where she has thrown the ball, it has rolled down the bank, Willow has barked agitated to tell NB her ball is in the water. Willow may not have wanted to jump in cos cold etc or prefers going from the shallow. NB is trying to listen to call but can't, concentrate cos Willow barking, goes down embankment, sees ball in water and leans over with a twig etc to bring it to her. Willow excited gets under her feet as dogs do and loses her footing and falls in.

This sounds more plausible if she was leaning in, I suppose. But the ball hasn’t been found either - that would float and surely be found in any search, as it’s so brightly coloured! Still though, healthy swimmer close in to the bank - even clothed I just can’t imagine her sinking without trace, though I accept that is likely what has occurred here.

 

[Edinlass]

Her father is likely going through the worst event of his life and is entirely justified in his position at this stage to cling on to whatever scraps of hope he can find.

And rightly so, why can’t concerned members of the public not also hold on to hope. Absolutely ridiculous

 

[Ruthbullock]

Well according to this poster who waded in it if she was conscious she could stand -

This isn’t anything like the Tweed, it’s worth noting the water levels last week and the actual geography of this river. I waded it chest deep while fishing last summer and the water was higher and flowing faster than it was last Friday.

IMO If she has fallen in, a sequence of freak events have occurred. The only factor for me that would point towards an accident is water temperature. IMO The river isn’t consistently deep or fast enough for a body to flow down, passed the weir, all of the runs which are only a foot and a half deep and the bends which all have a shallow inner section. In flood somebody could easily be swept away and out to sea but the level last Friday at Garstang was close to 0.4 meters.

Sliding in as you have misplaced your footing will have a massively different outcome to wading presumably from a different point where you step in and having waterproof waders on up to your thighs. It’s the same difference as entering a swimming pool via a slide or steps- one you end up under water straight away.

 

[Doughy]

I still think it's possible she fainted after skipping breakfast (running around after kids etc) or stamding up too quickly and tumbled in whilst dealing with the dog at the rivers edge. Would explain why she didn't manage to get herself out.

 

[Firstsnow4]

Maybe I interpreted it incorrectly, sorry if that's the case and I offended anyone.

No offence taken - I think we have just go so involved in this that we all want a happy ending. IMO.