"Who would leave children that young alone?"

[gord]

So the abductor is in the apartment and getting ready to take Madeleine, he hasnt yet done anything to the windows, (if he ever does)
He hears someone coming and in the seconds available he finds a cupboard that he can fit into in the dark in an unknown layout?


Or he hides under a bed,
scroll down to " Interior of 5A bedroom where Madeleine slept"
here, http://www.mccannfiles.com/id21.html

there is no chance, unless the abductor was vertically challenged, which we know he wasnt according to Tanners sighting.

what about just standing behind the door ? Gerry pops his head in - does a glance it is dark - goes to loo and then leaves ? ok it is risk - the guy must have been nearly caught - we just need to be sure is it possible - could it have happened this way - without realing stretching things to the extreme - which in my mind we are not -

 

[brit1981]

Why not. Gerry would probably not hear, plenty of people had patio doors facing onto the path that ran along the complex so he was not going to assume someone is opening the doors to his flat. I think this is a likely scenario. I think the door being ajar was just due to the patio door being opened and closed when Gerry and kate left, and gerry returned.

The thing is someone took a risk. The risk for anyone in the tapas nine to have been involvd is huge beyond reason. The risk of a random person taking his time to watch the flat, pick there time and go in an out, is much much smaller. I really do not think we can discount an abductor simply because there was a small risk they would be caught.

 

[gord]

Have a look here

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id21.html
scroll down to "route to the unblocked patio"

From what I can find, the patio is there at the top of the stairs,
It runs directly on to the street where Tanner and Wilkins both said Gerry McCann and Jeremy Wilkins were talking.
The map Tanner made shows them at the side of the apartment, so are we going to believe that an abductor will slide open a patio door less than 10 feet away from Gerry Mccanns head?

The patio door is inside the perimeter wall - which looks pretty big and rememeber it was dark

I am making the assumption that abductor was already insidec the perimeter wall side -

 

[fabgod]

Can i just say, regarding cars and anything else, that is all supposition, there is no evidence or reports in the statements to support it.
The whole point is off the timeline, if Tanner saw "man with Child" and "child" was Madeleine, it had to be done in a tiny timeframe if it could be done at all.

I think, that from these statements, no abductor would have taken the risk of putting himself in such a situation where he really didnt know who was where and when.
If, the abductor had been watching the apartment for some time, he would have known that this would be the worst time to take the child just down to the fact that there was more foot traffic from the Tapas friends due to making their way to eat, once there, the majority of them never left the table again,
This then makes an abductors timings easier as he only has to allow for three people making checks Oldfield, one of the McCanns and Tanner/O Brien family.

The timing for it to have been Madeleine is all wrong as far as I can see, Unless some abductor just decides to wander up to the apartment on spec, wlaks in brazen as you like, picks up a child and then wealks off down the main road, could happen, but I dont think that that was the case

 

[gord]

Can i just say, regarding cars and anything else, that is all supposition, there is no evidence or reports in the statements to support it.
The whole point is off the timeline, if Tanner saw "man with Child" and "child" was Madeleine, it had to be done in a tiny timeframe if it could be done at all.

I think, that from these statements, no abductor would have taken the risk of putting himself in such a situation where he really didnt know who was where and when.
If, the abductor had been watching the apartment for some time, he would have known that this would be the worst time to take the child just down to the fact that there was more foot traffic from the Tapas friends due to making their way to eat, once there, the majority of them never left the table again,
This then makes an abductors timings easier as he only has to allow for three people making checks Oldfield, one of the McCanns and Tanner/O Brien family.

The timing for it to have been Madeleine is all wrong as far as I can see, Unless some abductor just decides to wander up to the apartment on spec, wlaks in brazen as you like, picks up a child and then wealks off down the main road, could happen, but I dont think that that was the case

whats the alternative - I mean something happened to that girl - If this doesnt seem possible to you - then I would be very interested in any theory on how what happened to Madeline within the Time frame of 6.30 onwards and knowing when Gerry and Kate were seen - ie between 6.30 and 8.30

Of course no cars were seen as that is the whole point - once teh abductor had got away from the immediate area into a parked car they werer away - in Spain within an hour no bordere nothing

 

[fabgod]

what about just standing behind the door ? Gerry pops his head in - does a glance it is dark - goes to loo and then leaves ? ok it is risk - the guy must have been nearly caught - we just need to be sure is it possible - could it have happened this way - without realing stretching things to the extreme - which in my mind we are not -

The only door he could have hidden behind is Gerry/Kates.
For Gerry McCann to have really looked and seen Madeleine he would have had to put his head at least through the doorway to see around the wall.

His head would have been less than 2 feet away from the abductor at this point,
The abductor would have to not have any smell whatsoever and be breathing so quietly that Gerry MCCann didnt hear him.
All these scenarios are possible, but they are not really convincing are they?

I mean, If the abductor was behind the door having already been prepared to risk being caught at the busiest time of the evening and before walking off down the main road in front of two of the Tapas friends, why didnt he just smash the door on Gerry McCanns head, knock him out and take the child then?
I'm not taking the you know what... if the abductor is really taking so many risks, another risk wouldnt make a difference, he could even have just tied him to a chair?

 

[fabgod]

whats the alternative - I mean something happened to that girl - If this doesnt seem possible to you - then I would be very interested in any theory on how what happened to Madeline within the Time frame of 6.30 onwards and knowing when Gerry and Kate were seen - ie between 6.30 and 8.30

Right, Jane Tanners sighting is almost revered by some as being "gospel"
As you have already pointed out, there is a chance that she did see Madeleine, but, its a lot smaller of a chance than we are led to believe.

Take Tanners sighting out and we have 45 minutes, where the checking was less frequent, there was no Jeremy Wilkins walking around the block for 45 minutes, it is even darker etc.
If I was going to take Madeleine from that appartment that evening and I had been planning it, I would have waited until everyone was eating their meal, it makes sense, they would all want to be eating, together, as much as possible (given the checking system)
So you have already cut down on the risk of people just arriving others checking etc, the checks would be as short as possible in order to do what they all wanted to do, which was eat their meal with their friends?

 

[gord]

The only door he could have hidden behind is Gerry/Kates.
For Gerry McCann to have really looked and seen Madeleine he would have had to put his head at least through the doorway to see around the wall.

His head would have been less than 2 feet away from the abductor at this point,
The abductor would have to not have any smell whatsoever and be breathing so quietly that Gerry MCCann didnt hear him.
All these scenarios are possible, but they are not really convincing are they?

I mean, If the abductor was behind the door having already been prepared to risk being caught at the busiest time of the evening and before walking off down the main road in front of two of the Tapas friends, why didnt he just smash the door on Gerry McCanns head, knock him out and take the child then?
I'm not taking the you know what... if the abductor is really taking so many risks, another risk wouldnt make a difference, he could even have just tied him to a chair?

Totally disaggree - the last thing these people do is actualy confront grown men - they are usualy cowards. If Gerry had spotted him it would have been a struggke and he would have hightailed it out of there

It might seem unlikley to you but it is not impossible - Have you never stood behind a door when someone pops there head in as a joke ? They never see you unless they crane right round and look

anyway I have put some theories on the table - that is all they are - more than I have ever seen from people who suspect the Mccanns

 

[fabgod]

Totally disaggree - the last thing these people do is actualy confront grown men - they are usualy cowards. If Gerry had spotted him it would have been a struggke and he would have hightailed it out of there

It might seem unlikley to you but it is not impossible - Have you never stood behind a door when someone pops there head in as a joke ? They never see you unless they crane right round and look

anyway I have put some theories on the table - that is all they are - more than I have ever seen from people who suspect the Mccanns

I've already said they are all valid but not convincing if the abductor had been planning the abduction.
You can disagree, thats no problem I'm not saying that I am right at all.

I'm saying, I dont think Jane Tanner saw Madeleine being carried away, she may well have seen someone but for me it wasnt Madeleine.

The abductor would have had to have been either stupid and reckless, which would seem to go against the way he/she has been able to hide every trace of Madeleine and him/herself ever since, or
had balls of steel, and the luck of the Irish, Portuguese, English and Americans put together.

I just posted my thoughts, somewhere above,
I'm saying we could discount the sighting and look later becasue the timings of movements would fit better

 

[fabgod]

Gord,
I also take your point that most people wouldnt confront a grown man.
Most people wouldnt walk into a room and take a 3 year old either, we are not talkng about most people, we are talking about someone who is extremely ruthless, cunning and in all probability, sick in the head.

I dont for a minute think he would have hit him in the head, but, Imagine walking into a dark apartment, trying to keep quiet so as not to wake the kids, stick your head ever socarefully through a door and BANG!
You wouldnt know what hit you!

 

[brit1981]

I think the timing was good though. Most people had not been at the table long so he could assume fewer people would be making checks. Gerry had just made his check. he had no reason to think gerry would stop and chat to jeremy, (maybe if gerry had used the car park door, and stopped to chat to jeremy nearer there, this would all be some distant story from five years ago where a father caught an abductor trying to take his little girl). What better time to take her, given people made checks at different intervals. It only needed a very few minutes - see geryy leave, see most people at table (jane had not left at this point), go in one door, leave through the other, and all that happened is someone saw a man with a child in an area where parents were carrying children. In all crimes that have never been solved, (and crime sinvolving abduction), there has always been a bit of good luck on the criminals part - levi bellfield grabbed milly dowler in broad daylight in a fairly busy area, and did not get caught for nearly a decade.

 

[brit1981]

Gord,
I also take your point that most people wouldnt confront a grown man.
Most people wouldnt walk into a room and take a 3 year old either, we are not talkng about most people, we are talking about someone who is extremely ruthless, cunning and in all probability, sick in the head.

I dont for a minute think he would have hit him in the head, but, Imagine walking into a dark apartment, trying to keep quiet so as not to wake the kids, stick your head ever socarefully through a door and BANG!
You wouldnt know what hit you!

Physically attacking a phycially fit grown man, and stealing away a tiny childare very different things. A paedophile may be too cowardly, someone who wanted a child may nto when it comes down to it be a violent type.

 

[fabgod]

Why not. Gerry would probably not hear, plenty of people had patio doors facing onto the path that ran along the complex so he was not going to assume someone is opening the doors to his flat. I think this is a likely scenario. I think the door being ajar was just due to the patio door being opened and closed when Gerry and kate left, and gerry returned.

The thing is someone took a risk. The risk for anyone in the tapas nine to have been involvd is huge beyond reason. The risk of a random person taking his time to watch the flat, pick there time and go in an out, is much much smaller. I really do not think we can discount an abductor simply because there was a small risk they would be caught.

Brit, where did I say no abductor?

Someone did take a risk, but you are sort of contradicting yourself by saying someone watches the flat,
If they had been watching the flat, they would know that around 8.45 to 9.20 is the busiest time of the evening for the tapas group.
You have 4 of those 9 that will only make 2 trips all evening DW FP DP and RO
yet you as an abductor decide to go then?

 

[fabgod]

Physically attacking a phycially fit grown man, and stealing away a tiny childare very different things. A paedophile may be too cowardly, someone who wanted a child may nto when it comes down to it be a violent type.

Yes you are right, no argument, but we are jumping too far and trying to state the opportunity, execution, escape, type of person.
We cant run before we walk.
Find the window of opportunity if there is one, dont get caught up on making something fit because you want it to.

Back to the attacking a physically fit grown man, imagine the adrenaline that you would have at that moment, wound up beyond belief, you would be able to hear a pin drop, you have the element of suprise your eyes are more used to the darkness, regular man v regular man and not a little tiny coward,
the abductor wins everytime

 

[Donjeta]

I think it would probably have been easy to overpower a man who was not expecting any trouble but it would have made more sense for the abductor to avoid a confrontation if he could hide well enough that GM didn't see him. Hurting somebody in the apartment might make a mess and leave possible evidence on his shoes and clothing, and if GM was able to give a description later there's more risk of getting caught. Also if he didn't return to the Tapas bar Kate or somebody else would probably have come looking for him and the alarm would have been sounded sooner and there'd be less time to get away.

 

[fabgod]

I think the timing was good though. Most people had not been at the table long so he could assume fewer people would be making checks. Gerry had just made his check. he had no reason to think gerry would stop and chat to jeremy, (maybe if gerry had used the car park door, and stopped to chat to jeremy nearer there, this would all be some distant story from five years ago where a father caught an abductor trying to take his little girl). What better time to take her, given people made checks at different intervals. It only needed a very few minutes - see geryy leave, see most people at table (jane had not left at this point), go in one door, leave through the other, and all that happened is someone saw a man with a child in an area where parents were carrying children. In all crimes that have never been solved, (and crime sinvolving abduction), there has always been a bit of good luck on the criminals part - levi bellfield grabbed milly dowler in broad daylight in a fairly busy area, and did not get caught for nearly a decade.

Brit,
I'm not here trying to make my theory right and everyone elses wrong, I really dont mind what anyone else believes, its up to them.
What I am trying to do is sleuth the case, to do that we have to work on evidence and probabilities to a certain extent, but try and find what we believe happened.
We dont know what happened and probably most of us are hundreds or thousands of miles away from PdL so it is an almost impossible task.

If you think the timing was good, thats fine, i don't, for the reasons I have posted.
On your theory here to play devils advocate,
where was the abductor watching from to see Gerry leave?
It would have to be the side or the tapas bar side of the apartment, could he have gotten in the apartment from the pathway that leasd down past the pool, possibly, but why would he purposely choose to be nearer to the Tapas group than he had to be?

If he is watching, he has seen Jeremy Wilkins walking round for 45 minutes, does he know his patter of movement?

Gerry did use the car park door according tohis 4th may statement, he was very clear about using the key as he always did, he may be lying, but then if we get into that, what are we left with?

 

[Donjeta]

I guess my question is, if they used the key through the front door, why was the patio door unlocked? Not for easier access.

 

[fabgod]

I think it would probably have been easy to overpower a man who was not expecting any trouble but it would have made more sense for the abductor to avoid a confrontation if he could hide well enough that GM didn't see him. Hurting somebody in the apartment might make a mess and leave possible evidence on his shoes and clothing, and if GM was able to give a description later there's more risk of getting caught. Also if he didn't return to the Tapas bar Kate or somebody else would probably have come looking for him and the alarm would have been sounded sooner and there'd be less time to get away.

I agree Donjeta, In my post I only said it to make a point that if the abductor was so brazen as to be in the small apartment and then walk down a main road in plain sight, that he may as well have attacked Gerry McCann also.

 

[fabgod]

I guess my question is, if they used the key through the front door, why was the patio door unlocked? Not for easier access.

Would there be a temptation to say something, that would portray a better image of oneself maybe?

Possibly that is why the statement of 10th May changed.

If it was me andI was being interviewed in that situation I would be concerned at what the reaction would be to my saying "we left the door open"

 

[Tink]

I think the bigger risk this abductor takes is that Madeleine will wake up and scream. Sometimes kids this age will seem to sleep through anything, and sometimes they will wake up at the slightest sound or movement. The abductor just couldn't know. So it seems unlikely to me that you'd open and go into the patio door just a few feet away from Gerry and then pick up a child who might well scream and yell.

The position Tanner describes the man carrying the child in is very unusual and awkward, and definitely NOT the way you'd carry a child you want to keep asleep. A sleeping child carried across someone's arms that way will feel insecure and be more likely to wake up. I don't know that she is deliberately lying, but I think she's mistaken.

Tink