Working Theories Thread

[nonfictionrocks]

This is my first post on this case but I have been following from Day 1 (what a challenge it has been!) Kudos to the Mods!

I originally came across the story on MSN's Canadian version, so rest assured Kyron's disappearance was announced both nationally and internationally (if one considers Ontario, Canada that is). When I heard, I quickly logged on to WS knowing you all would be on top of the situation.

Until Kyron got his own forum it was difficult to even consider posting a question or theory as the pages were moving so quickly and trying to find an answer to your question was almost impossible.

Now with the forum format I feel comfortable in adding a few thoughts to this sad situation.

If we are to assume that LE is following SM cell phone bings, it occurs to me that perhaps there might be another reason why SM is not so forthcoming to her whereabouts that fateful day (or LE knows is aware that this will only add more fuel to this fire). For someone (SM) who spends time in a gym and had a baby 18 months ago, she does not look to be in tip top shape (sorry if that sounds catty). I think it could be an excuse or cover to be away from her home in order to meet someone else. Maybe that someone lives on the island and this is why her cell phone has been pinged there. How much worse would she look right now if an affair was to be exposed? How would her husband feel finding this out in combination with having his little boy missing? It would also explain her need to announce on her FB page that she was heading out to the gym, so her "lover" could meet up with her. If she is not involved in Kyron's disappearance, she might be in desperate need of support from someone who she is reluctant to name or involve. Maybe he is married too?

Another story of interest to me and I am not sure if it ever panned out, was this suicidal man:

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/suicidal_man_leads_three_law_e.html#incart_rh

Was this angle ever totally sleuthed out? I can't find any follow up.

I want to mention that many times my kids tell me there will be or has been a talent show (or something along those lines) at their school during the day and not only did I not get an invite - I had no idea it was happening. I am not talking about the Christmas pageants - we get lots of notice on these. I think sometimes the school has activities that are just for the students and if you don't read every single word on the school's monthly calendar, you miss these. However, our school is very diligent in letting us parents know when a fund raising activity is happening - LOL I should add that I am not positive that the afternoon Talent Show was posted on the school marque as I heard the Science show had been. Now speaking of this Science Fair (as we call them in the north), if it was posted outside the school that this was an open house it might not only draw people from the community who normally would not be in the school (aunts, uncles, grandparents, etc.) but is an invitation for people without a valid reason to be anywhere near the school to come on inside, "everyone is welcome today!" This is mainly why I think Kyron's disappearance was a crime of opportunity - there were way too many unknown people (familiar and not so familiar) walking the halls of school that morning. Someone saw a chance and took it.

When I saw the search in the water down that long path leading from the Native whatever the building was (sorry too tired to look for the link) my thought was that LE was perhaps following a maintenance company's route and maybe someone who works for that company is contracted to cut the grass or pick up the garbage at both places on this day.

As for SM's captions on her FB photographs of both her daughter and Kyron, as a mother of two boys under the age of ten, I have to say first, any new clothing I buy them can be truly destroyed the first time they wear it and since they grow so fast many things either look too small or way too big on them and secondly I appreciate getting used clothing whenever I can (preferrably not already stained - LOL). I cannot speak for being a mother of a finally having a daughter in the house, but what I can say is that I love little girl's clothing and if I had a daughter I would doll her up because I can never do this with my boys. Being the first girl for SM - all of her clothes were probably brand new and with Mom being a girl herself, she might have enjoyed having her little girl look pretty. Also it sounds like the captions under her pictures have been taken totally out of context. I did not see the pictures but have heard the explanations - FWIW!

And last (sorry to be so long but I have a couple of weeks accumulation here) in my 30 plus years of studying and following true crime cases, sometimes the motive is just pure evil with no explanation other than urge and opportunity (think BTK) and it has nothing to do with the victim or their family, sadly it happens.

So believe me when I say as a parent of two small boys in school, I am more comfortable thinking that the SM did it (although I do not 100% believe this to be the case) because the alternative truly is horrifying!

JMO

 

[miabellamoure]

IF Kyron's SM were to have premeditated his disappearance and/or death...don't you think she'd have been a little smarter to have left her cell where ever she supposedly told LE she was that day?

I stand by my theories and believe it will come out that this was a crime of "snapping"...at least I want to stand there because the alternative is even more horrible to fathom.

I honestly think to be murdered by your own family member is far worse than a stranger. This is the person that is supposed to care for & love you...not murder you.

 

[impatientredhead]

Skyline Elementary had no policy of calling in when students were absent, so if she is the culprit, she would have known that no one would call her.

I find it odd that any school in today's day and age has no policy about contacting parents regarding an absence. Not saying they do or don't, just that I find it odd.

But lets say their policy is that they do not call on the first day of an absence, but they don't do anything when the child was there and then isn't there anymore?

That seems even odder.

 

[cakegirl0905]

I think this was totally premeditated. I think part of this plan was her older son being moved away to live elsewhere ..

I believe Terri took Kyron to school that morning early to do the walk through at the science fair snapped her pic to show he was there.
I believe she made sure Kyron's stuff (back Pack and coat) made it to the classroom to make it appear he was there. Then I do believe she made her appearence at the gym with Kyron and hollered at the teacher about the appointment across the gym knowing full well in all the confusion that the teacher would not panick if Kyron was gone, the teacher would just assume Kyron was with Terri.
I also believe she either told Kyron he had an appointment as well/ or told him that they were going to get real life tree frog for his project to get him back to the truck, she may have had him wait for her and had him come out another door so she was not seen walking out with him.
She also would be full aware that with all the hustle and bustle going on that she would more then likley not be seen leaving with him,and she knew class role call would not be called until later on in the day. She drove the truck on purpose as for one it is not as noticable as her mustang and the truck would allow her to drive to more areas to get rid of Kyron's body.
I am not sure what her motive would be as by all accounts everything seemed and looked right.
Jealousy may play a big factor here in regards to Kaine paying to much attention to Kyron and not her and the new baby, jealous because of the relationship he still shared with his exwife in regards to Kyron. I feel it is something along those lines given the fact that she has helped raise him from an infant.

I think the babe was dropped off at daycare by either her or dad that morning...

Anyhow this is jmho of course fwiw ....

Agreed. I believe she took him to school so he could take his project in and she could take a pic of him. She then had some excuse for taking him out-an appointment, etc, so he left willingly with her.

 

[Emma Peel]

Closing thread.

Back in a bit.

OMG you closed our theory thread for 7.5 hours today?

:floorlaugh: oh BeanE this makes me laugh.
The best part is, I didn't even notice!
No wait.
The best part is, nobody noticed! lololol! :dance:

Wow, what a big day we had. No harm done b/c it's good to let all of this simmer a bit on the narrow topic threads before beating it into working theory.

So, welcome back, theorists! Let's find Kyron!

 

[October]

All of these are interesting theories, but not one of them is workable without explaining WHERE the 18month old is during this entire time.

Does it matter? She's only 18 months old. She can't tell anyone what she saw, and she could easily be left in a crib or a car seat with no repercussions. I have three children, and if I felt I needed to do something like this, leaving my 18 month old in the car would be the least of my worries. She can nap there, you can give her snacks or put in a dvd. She can't get herself out. Easy peasy.

 

[October]

I admit, its late here and... Im sleep-typing, but I hope Im misreading and no one is actually advocating leaving an 18 month old unattended at home or in a car.

Whoa! I'm in no way advocating it. Not at all. Ever.

I'm just saying that I can see some people doing it in desperate circumstances, so I can't discount theories just because we don't know if someone had childcare.

 

[butwhatif?]

Forgive me for posting here when I'm still waaaay back on thread 8, but the posts about the 7 yr old boys interview about the sub teacher seemed to be missing a HUGE point.

If this has already been cleared up, then just ignore the rest of my post, or mods can delete.

In the article it stated that the boy must have been mistaken because there were no subs at the school that day (per the school superintendent).

And that the subs were only there after Kyrons disappearance "to help with the stress of the Horman case".

http://www.koinlocal6.com/content/n...te-noticed-Horman/TVY3YTREG0SyCP3tb3MkZg.cspx

Going with the Astros belief that a woman is involved, along with the above information, is it possible that the substitute teacher Kyrons friend spoke of was in fact not a teacher at all, but an imposter there to gain Kyrons trust before abducting him?
(Still not sure if it was the sub or reg teacher who left the room though- Of course this theory only works if it was the sub who left)

Also, it seems odd to me that the reg teacher would assume he was just at the bathrooms or getting a drink since it has been established that they DO have a buddy system for trips to the bathroom at this school....I don't care how hectic the day was...IMO, all the more reason to be super vigilant.

And if this boy was his deskmate- why no questioning of why Kyron was not back in his seat a short time later?

FWIW- My main theory is still family-related, but just wanted to throw this one out there.

 

[MimiWhatserface]

I think this was totally premeditated. I think part of this plan was her older son being moved away to live elsewhere ..

I believe Terri took Kyron to school that morning early to do the walk through at the science fair snapped her pic to show he was there.
I believe she made sure Kyron's stuff (back Pack and coat) made it to the classroom to make it appear he was there. Then I do believe she made her appearence at the gym with Kyron and hollered at the teacher about the appointment across the gym knowing full well in all the confusion that the teacher would not panick if Kyron was gone, the teacher would just assume Kyron was with Terri.
I also believe she either told Kyron he had an appointment as well/ or told him that they were going to get real life tree frog for his project to get him back to the truck, she may have had him wait for her and had him come out another door so she was not seen walking out with him.
She also would be full aware that with all the hustle and bustle going on that she would more then likley not be seen leaving with him,and she knew class role call would not be called until later on in the day. She drove the truck on purpose as for one it is not as noticable as her mustang and the truck would allow her to drive to more areas to get rid of Kyron's body.
I am not sure what her motive would be as by all accounts everything seemed and looked right.
Jealousy may play a big factor here in regards to Kaine paying to much attention to Kyron and not her and the new baby, jealous because of the relationship he still shared with his exwife in regards to Kyron. I feel it is something along those lines given the fact that she has helped raise him from an infant.

I think the babe was dropped off at daycare by either her or dad that morning...

Anyhow this is jmho of course fwiw ....

You make a lot of sense. She could have merely told Kyron that she was going to be dropping him back off after his appointment and to go drop his bags off in the class and to meet her at the front of the school.
The infant could have been at daycare or with a friend. Maybe this was the neighbor that was searched solely because it was the next place she was right after getting back that day.
I have been very slow to even consider SM as an option and I do this only because I respect whatever it is that the LE has discovered. I don't think we know the half of it. They are being so tight with any info that is out there.

 

[MimiWhatserface]

Saturday 1:45AM and I am up working on a new theory. Really, Im just up thinking of this little man.

 

[txsvicki]

Not sure how this fits with a theory of exactly who took Kyron, but it's really weird that the teacher never noticed that Kyron's coat and backpack were left at the school all day and just "assumed" that the appointment was for that day. I can't imagine SM,a former teacher leaving a kid's backpack at school and not bringing the child back after the appointment. No offense, but the teacher does sound sort of ditzy and maybe that was taken advantage of along with the knowledge that the teacher wouldn't be going through folders checking off behavior or giving homework that day. I also can't imagine that Kyron's classmates didn't notice his stuff still at school and mention it to the teacher during the day or at the end. Very strange.

 

[scandi]

Not sure how this fits with a theory of exactly who took Kyron, but it's really weird that the teacher never noticed that Kyron's coat and backpack were left at the school all day and just "assumed" that the appointment was for that day. I can't imagine SM,a former teacher leaving a kid's backpack at school and not bringing the child back after the appointment. No offense, but the teacher does sound sort of ditzy and maybe that was taken advantage of along with the knowledge that the teacher wouldn't be going through folders checking off behavior or giving homework that day. I also can't imagine that Kyron's classmates didn't notice his stuff still at school and mention it to the teacher during the day or at the end. Very strange.

That is so odd Txsvicki with a full day of school no less. I wonder what happened to those items of Kyron's? Did LE end up getting them? Looks like someone was pretty lax, don't know who yet. xox

 

[glorybug]

What I meant was, facts. It is strange that there is no mention of where the baby was during the time it took to drive Kyron to school, look at his exhibit and walk around.

When you try to add in other people's theories that he was then killed, driven to some other place and disposed of, that's an awfully long time to leave a baby unattended. Either there was a babysitter, or the baby was with SM. If people are supposing that SM killed Kyron because she cared more about her own baby, it hardly seems likely she would leave that baby unattended at home for even the 45 minutes they were at school. I also find it hard to believe she, or anyone else would leave their baby laying on the floor, so I'm guessing that comment was meant to be a little snarky?

The thing is, we still do not know where biodad was that day, what car he was driving. We don't know where the baby was. One thing I can say about the way LE has handled this case is that they have kept even the smallest of seemingly insignificant details under wraps, making it very hard for anyone to really make even an educated guess as to what has happened. I know other people like to make up their own theories, and don't care much about the facts, but I really do like to come up with mine based on what facts are known. In this case, the public doesn't even know the most basic of facts. I don't consider my interpretation of the expression on someone's face to be a 'fact'. That's subjective.

18 month old left lying on the floor for an hour... no prob, no reprocussions (with 18 mo)

 

[glorybug]

Maybe it's just me, but I never left either of my boys ANYWHERE while I drove off in a car. I did not leave them in a crib, did not leave them on the floor or in a carseat, if I was leaving the house. I certainly did not give them snacks and a DVD. Do people actually do these kinds of things? I sincerely hope not, and if they are, I hope they stop. It's dangerous.

I am going to try to erase that horrid thought from my brain. I will say that it makes no sense that a woman who's supposed only motive for killing her stepchild is that it was competing with her child certainly would not leave that child alone while they run off to murder the stepchild. Ludicrous.
________________________

I have thought it possible that SM left school, and rather than running errands as she claimed, actually met up with someone in the area searched. Perhaps for a tryst, maybe for drugs- who knows? Maybe she'd been overspending and was borrowing money that nobody knew about. There are plenty of reasons she could have lied- obviously, including murder. Maybe that was the reason initially no info came out- because SM admitting to 'something' that wouldn't look good- she just didn't admit to doing it that day. This is exactly why I'm glad I took my parent's lessons to heart and avoid lying... it's not worth getting caught for, and it makes even simple things worse.

If she had 'something' else planned for that day, it would explain why she wasn't chaperoning, and why she missed the talent show. Although, as someone else mentioned, unless it's in the evening, I often miss events like that at my children's schools- sometimes because I have other plans, sometimes because the children or school don't notify me, and to be honest, sometimes because I don't really want to do the activity, and my kids don't care if I miss it. Between all their sports activities that run me ragged, I just can't go to all of them. My bad.

Does it matter? She's only 18 months old. She can't tell anyone what she saw, and she could easily be left in a crib or a car seat with no repercussions. I have three children, and if I felt I needed to do something like this, leaving my 18 month old in the car would be the least of my worries. She can nap there, you can give her snacks or put in a dvd. She can't get herself out. Easy peasy.

 

[Morag]

Of course the CSI tee shirt has been remarked on several (hundred) times. I am wondering if he wore that same shirt (or a duplicate) the previous day. It would make it harder to be sure if Kyron had been seen on Friday morning or on Thursday. I do believe that he was at school on Friday morning, but if someone is questioning a child or an adult a few days later, some may have recalled seeing him on Thursday instead. This would further confuse the situation of whether he had been seen after his SM had left, particularly for kids who certainly would have remembered his shirt.

 

[ElizaAvalon]

FINALLY, I can post my theory, which is, of course, the SM did it.

Maybe I am jaded after all of these cases - Casey Anthony's fault I suppose - but I thought it was the SM from the get-go. Putting MOTIVE and METHOD shudder aside, the SM's story just did not ring true to me.

The rest of this follows the ASSUMPTION that it was the SM and may be painful to read.

So let's talk about MOTIVE. Assuming the SM had a hand in this, for whatever reason, she did not want Kyron in her life.

This is a child who has another mother. Why was murder the only solution? Why not just give the child to his biological mother to raise? Perhaps the father would not hear of it. Did the father give Kryon too much attention? Did Kyron react to his SM's (possible) negativity towards him by treating the baby badly? Was Kyron actually the 7-year-old boy who was traumatizing her daughter at the gym babysitter?

Or was it money. If Kyron was given to his mother to raise, Kaine would have had to pay child support.

Whatever the reason, it sure as heck wasn't a crime of passion, that's for sure. This was methodically thought out and executed.

METHOD - I can't wrap my mind around method just yet. I have a real hard time with this and it breaks my heart. I hope he didn't suffer.

I'm going to do a little more studying of the school property to try to figure out how they got out of the school and into the truck unnoticed. Will post my theory about that in a day or so.

 

[jwagoner]

Hi, my first post on websleuths. As father to a boy close to Kyron's age, this case bothers me a lot on a personal level.

One theory of mine is that an adult could have been waiting in the bathroom, held Kyron in a bathroom stall until a bit after the bell to go to class, and then slipped out a door with him. With that extra time between science fair project and the start of class, the SM may have told him to be sure to go to the bathroom (which sounds like something I would say) or maybe he just needed to. This, of course, is speculation; but I would be interested to see a diagram of the school to see if there's a bathroom near an exit.

Unlike everyone else on this planet, I'm not "convinced" the SM did it because I don't have any evidence of that. According to what I've read about her, she volunteers at Skyline Elementary and was herself a teacher. In my mind, this seems like it would tend to breed a sense of security / lackadaisicality in what was basically a de facto "workplace" for her. People have said "Why didn't she walk him all the way to class / make sure he was there", but I could see this feeling very normal (for him to wander around alone inside the school) for the SM and Kyron given the above information.

Regarding the science fair photo:

The science fair photo does not bother me because:

* the fact that his project was very well done indicates some level of parental involvement, which is a good sign
* his project is obviously above the level of a 7-year-old, but his isn't the only one... so many parents do the whole project for the kid, this is normal
* there were other people (adults and children) in the classroom at the time, indicating that the time that the photo was taken was an appropriate time

The science fair photo bothers me because:

* the degree to which his science fair project is very well done suggests to me a high level of parental "control" and mandated "perfectionism" (contrast with the one to the right of Kyron's, where that child's parent let the child be a child with their project). mistakes don't look "okay" on Kyron's.
* this photo is the only one I can find in which Kyron's left hand is behind him; in fact, when looking at the set of 65 photos that have been published, he appears to be ambidextrous (perhaps even left-dominant, trained to write "right-handed"), and he typically displays a high level of symmetry with his hands (he holds both hands in front, or both hands behind, or both hands to the side). so why is the left hand behind him in this ONE photo? this does bother me somewhat.

My very first thought about the science fair project photo was "this looks like a photoshop"... something with the lighting and border around Kyron doesn't look right to me. But I feel confident that LE would have confiscated the camera with the original photo and looked at this angle already.

Looking at the maps of the area around the school, there are ponds and vast stretches of woods and then large bodies of water. I really doubt he would have left the school alone to go wander, but in any case just the local geography makes search a very difficult task for LE.

Joe

 

[Ms Suzanne]

I've been thinking about this alot.If possibly the cell phone pings are not matching up where she said she possibly was.Wouldn't LE check there?They are checking Sauve Island because of the cell phone pings there?Maybe they are checking the wrong place and someone possibly knew they would do that.Maybe they are checking who and when she was seen in this white truck possibly with Kyron to see where they could have went and where possibly little Kyron is.Maybe they are checking video traffic of what route she could have really taken if they are looking for that.I am curious of where she said her errands were she ran that day and the day before.I'm just thinking outloud.

 

[RoughlyCollie]

Something about Kaine's actions don't ring true with me either but I might not should post that.

I've got questions about him, too. I think that LE must have a verified alibi for him if he is not involved. So I'm keeping my mouth shut for a change.

 

[CharlestonGal]

My theory. Please consider that I have a diabolically criminal mind. I have drafted numerous murder plans in my head for a novel about the almost perfect murder, and I've thought out every detail in advance. My theory assumes the same of TH.

Motive. Simple. Kyron and the 16 year old are no longer welcome as part of TM's new blood family with KH. The 16 y/o is sent away easily enough, as KH has no legal or biological authority over that, but KH absolutely will not entertain any idea of sending Kyron to live with his mother. This frustrates TH to no end because she wants the new baby and herself to be the entire focus of KH, so she begins to plot.

TH, having watched many episodes of her favorite show, CSI, knows that the crime scene and the body hold hundreds of clues. It's very difficult to stage an "accident" or a SODDI scene, so she does the smart thing and plans that there be no crime scene or body at all. He can't disappear from home because that brings too much attention and too few possible perps. It can't be a busy mall or shopping center because there are too many cameras. After considering a few scenarios, she chooses a logical scene - the school.

Having chosen the scene, she thinks about how she herself can abduct the child from school. This presents problems. First of all, Kyron rides the bus and there is no reason for TM to be at the school on an average day. Second, she is a familiar face and will certainly be recognized and reported. So, she waits for an opportunity that she will be expected at the school. Third, she has to plan what to do with the toddler while she carries out her mission. Now the real planning begins.

The toddler. There are many pictures of the toddler at the school with Terri during school events. This morning, she does not bring the toddler. Why the departure from the norm and how does she explain it? I have not yet heard her explanation for this, but she manages some way to have the toddler elsewhere while she is alone at the school with Kyron. I have strong suspicions about where the toddler was that morning, but the information is rumor at this point. The point is, she manages and the toddler is not at the school with her and Kyron.

The confusion. TM counts on the confusion of that morning, and she deliberately adds some more. She gives the teacher "paperwork" the day prior for an appointment Kyron has on Friday. It has been confirmed that TM did indeed confuse the teacher with an "appointment" so that the teacher did not find anything amiss when Kyron was gone. The toddler is safely elsewhere and the school will not be alarmed at Kyron's disappearance. So far, so good.

The next problem is how to get Kyron out of the school. This is a possible scenario I posted elsewhere on the board:

"What's been in my mind from the beginning is Kyron's obvious pride in his exhibit - the tree frog. Many of us have suspected from the beginning that the frog was used as part of a ruse to get Kyron out of the school. Many doubted he would leave the school with a stranger for that reason - but I believe he would have left with someone who made it seem "OK". I also think it would have been necessary to enlist Kyron's help in the "sneaking out for a few minutes" part of the ruse.

If Kyron was told, "Hey, guess what? Mr. Science Teacher (or principal or whoever) says there are tree frogs in X place and it's OK for us to go over there real quick, as long as we're back in a few minutes and no one sees us go. How cool would THAT be for your exhibit! I'll go out the front door, you act like you're walking to your classroom, but sneak downstairs while no one is looking, then sneak to the truck! We'll get the frog and be back before anyone misses us!"

The beauty of this plan is that Kyron HELPS with his own disappearance. It can also be abandoned quickly if he is seen in the parking lot or seen getting in the truck. He had no reason to think he wouldn't be back - his coat and backpack were in the classroom. I think poor Kyron was tricked in the most heinous way by someone he trusted - because he wanted a tree frog."

Of course, it's not critical that the ruse involve a tree frog, that is just one example of a ruse that would have worked to gain Kyron's assistance. If TM or Kyron encountered anyone in the building or in the parking lot, the plan would have been abandoned at once. No crime had been committed at that point and TM could have taken him on the excursion and simply returned him to school. No more would have come of it and TM would have been back to square one.

But, as we know, they both made it to the truck without the "escape" being noticed. So far, so good. Now Part II of the plan kicks in. TM drives to a location she has already scouted and prepared. Again, if they are noticed along the way, TM can abandon the plan and return Kyron to school. But again, they are not noticed. She arrives at the location, does whatever she did to Kyron (I refuse to imagine this part). Then she either places him in a previously prepared grave or into a weighted container or suitcase and submerges him in the water. I don't believe she buried him though because too much evidence would have been left on her. The cleanest method is the water burial and is more likely.

After that, she simply drives away and goes about her errands. Her "side trip" with Kyron on her way to run errands could literally have taken 30 minutes or less.
The crime is clean. No evidence at home, at the school, or in the truck. TM believes the entire focus will be on the school and surrounding woods, which it was - at first. She believes she will be the object of sympathy as the grieving mother of a child who was lost by the school.

THIS POST IS A THEORY. IT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE CHAIN OF EVENTS THAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED DURING THE MORNING OF THE 4TH OF JUNE, 2010 AT SKYLINE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.