Australia Australia - Claremont SK, 1996-97, Perth, WA - #14

[DRT]

Thanks PD and everyone else for replying, I try to answer all and I also have photos from yesterday at Cott beach to post later. I am still not sure how important knowing how the car got into the ocean is, but I think it's probably important to try to establish the facts if possible.

Everyone seems agreed that the car was found Wednesday morning on 22nd June 1988. It was seen in the ocean with its lights on and upside down in the middle (approx) of Cott beach. It was towed to shore. There is a picture of it after it was retrieved (and maybe another image that I still haven't sourced after retrieval) on its wheels with the roof squashed to around the bottom of the window. Both back doors were locked. Both front doors were unlocked, windows were all up except for drivers, which was down. Lights were on and it was estimated by this and battery, that car had been in water for a few hours before it was found. Back seat had been washed up south of Cott groyne on Monday 20th June in afternoon (this was from a newspaper report in the days after JC went missing. All later reports just say the back seat was found washed up of a beach south of the groyne, without saying when).
Car was on it's wheels on sand, it weight over a ton, 1,150 kgs, and would have been very difficult to put on its wheels if it was towed along the sand upside down. I'm assuming the car was righted in the water, when it was a lot lighter. But if it was dragged along the sand, I think you are correct and it would have done damage, I could try to calculate how much. I'm assuming it would have been towed up the sand on its wheels where it ended up as this seems logical but may not have been.

Pillars were still attached to the roof and undamaged after being hit by a train. My assumption from this, is that pillars were strong.

Back seat? Back doors locked, windows closed. My memory of the event favours the reports that it was washed up on the same day of disappearance, later reports that I've read don't seem to mention when it was found, and if true only makes the scenario more unbelievable.

RSBM
To me having the back doors locked would be common in a car of that era as I suspect central locking came later. Having the front doors open would be a normal state for 2 people in a car. If the front driver's door didn't open from the outside it probably wouldn't matter if it was open or not.

I can't see that it would be possible for the backseat to float out the window.

I also think that this sounds like a job for more than 1 person. It seems like a lot of things that could go wrong with this.

For what it's worth while I once thought JC was probably a victim of the CSK, relooking at reported evidence my gut feeling is they are not related.

 

[petedavo.au]

What's the most likely action Julie could've taken if this happened on the night she was last seen and he was harder to shake off?

Source http://www.news.com.au/news/vanishe...g/news-story/1f9da6564bf58fdfb6f6532c5e7b5d2f

Did she do what this Stuart Richardson did in 1986 when being confronted in similar circumstances, and pull into a Police Station, (even though Claremont and Cottesloe Police Stations were shut at night) maybe hoping that he'd get the message and get scared off, just as Stuart said he hoped would happen?

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[meticulously]

Quote #Innerchild :Thanks Meticulously, I also think it would have sunk and remained in the same spot. Your quote is from the summer months with the morning easterly and afternoon sea S/W breezes prevailing. In June you almost certainly wouldn't have easterlies in morning, most likely calm with minimal breeze or light S/W or possible light northerly.(Unquote )
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Hey your reading the wrong bit innerchild , see the part on easterly winds .

The weather charts show evidence of the winds likely to being south east to easterly on the 20th. light strength

The 21st has northeast winds as the synoptic chart shows, thats easterly turning northerly in the daytime . light to moderate strength.

The 22nd has the wind in the northern quadrant, thats northeast turning norwest. moderate to fresh strength.

This could have determined the rear carseat location on the 20th or 21st (whenever it was found.)
Moo
21/6

22/6

leeuwin current fortified by wind direction

.

 

[petedavo.au]

SNIP

I also think that this sounds like a job for more than 1 person. It seems like a lot of things that could go wrong with this.

For what it's worth while I once thought JC was probably a victim of the CSK, relooking at reported evidence my gut feeling is they are not related.

I think we need to start a timeline to put all the known facts straight and simplify this.

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[stirling hwy]

As far as I'm aware the disappearance of Cutler has FA to do with the CSK some people have too much time on their hands have caught some excellent Tailor off that groin, sorry for going off topic though.

 

[Innerchild]

Quote #Innerchild :Thanks Meticulously, I also think it would have sunk and remained in the same spot. Your quote is from the summer months with the morning easterly and afternoon sea S/W breezes prevailing. In June you almost certainly wouldn't have easterlies in morning, most likely calm with minimal breeze or light S/W or possible light northerly.(Unquote )
------------------------------------

Hey your reading the wrong bit innerchild , see the part on easterly winds .

The weather charts show evidence of the winds likely to being south east to easterly on the 20th. light strength

The 21st has northeast winds as the synoptic chart shows, thats easterly turning northerly in the daytime . light to moderate strength.

The 22nd has the wind in the northern quadrant, thats northeast turning norwest. moderate to fresh strength.

This could have determined the rear carseat location on the 20th or 21st (whenever it was found.)
Moo
21/6

22/6

leeuwin current fortified by wind direction

.

Thanks MT my head still hurts from all my calculations.

 

[petedavo.au]

As far as I'm aware the disappearance of Cutler has FA to do with the CSK some people have too much time on their hands have caught some excellent Tailor off that groin, sorry for going off topic though.

I agree with the first.
I suggest moving discussion of Cutler to http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?327387-AUSTRALIA-Perth-missing-murdered-SK-victims
Last time I caught any decent amount of Tailor it was under the old Fremantle Traffic Bridge in 1977. Fishing has been crap since.

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[Innerchild]

Thanks Innerchild for your post - great math!!

Effectively your calculations show that the force of the fiat accelerating off the groyne and hitting rocks and the force of the car hitting the groyne whilst in the sea, would not likely be the cause of the damage to the fiat (please correct me if I misinterpret).

I do get this - however I don't see how someone could drive a badly damaged car to the groyne or boat ramp without being noticed by someone.

Lets then look at the scenario of the the car tipping upside down coming off the groyne, perhaps floating for a bit and then hitting reef, catching on the reef and the force of the waves hitting the car caused the damage? How do you think this would play out?

EDIT: and yes does send a Westerly beacon.

Hi Spinnaker, Maths was OK, I made some mistakes in trying to calculate correct units for deceleration which I've corrected, and it doesn't make much difference.
Car hitting the groyne is a possibility for force to damage car, but there was no hurricane and to move a one tone car against groyne with any sort of acceleration would have to be fairly strong.
IMO, because of where the car was disposed of overcoming the laws of physics, the way it was posed and the direction fitting exactly in with 3 CSK victims this is a CSK case.

IMO Fiat hitting groyne while in water

F = m x a F = 700 (lighter in water) x 0.5 = 97N
May hit groyne more than once but may also have no acceleration, which is a change in velocity. Movement in water may be a constant velocity.

My interpretation was that none of the following scenarios: entering ocean off groyne, down boat ramp or off sand after coming down access road. But someone mentioned the possibility of the car being damaged being towed out of the water. So I'm going to try to estimated the forces involved in that. So please ignore and keep fishing if you want, I don't blame you but I think it is important to look at this as objectively as we can.

I have summarised the earlier scenarios' and will post summaries of Forces of each with corrected maths leaving calculations out! The brave little Fiat getting pounded in each scenario with resulting forces and this is not me being smart or snippy, but I was thinking of brave little JC, KT, SS, JR, JC (KK that got away) and anyone else.

 

[Innerchild]

 

[Innerchild]

Brave little Fiat hit by 30,000 to 60,000 N from big boofing loco engine is pretty smashed up. But roof still intact and pillars supporting roof straight and still attached to roof

 

[Innerchild]

Brave little Fiat is travelling 100km/hr and rolls hitting the ground 9 times. Serious force of 8000 to 12,000N applied but brave little Fiat (picture on left is hitting 9th time) has almost no structural damage, but possible broken legs. Picture on right is after coming to a halt.

 

[Innerchild]

Picture mine taken 18/04/2017

 

[Innerchild]

This is what the Cott groyne was like in the 1980's IMO.

 

[Innerchild]

Brave little Fiat entering ocean off boat ramp at Cottesloe beach, 800N (10km/hr over 4s)
Car is pushed off 1988 boat ramp in front of current Indiana location.

Assume car floats out to between pylon and groyne and settles upside down.

Assume damage to Fiat happens when it is being towed to shore.

 

[Bunnie]

As far as I'm aware the disappearance of Cutler has FA to do with the CSK some people have too much time on their hands have caught some excellent Tailor off that groin, sorry for going off topic though.

The Cutler disappearance has been postulated to be connected to the CSK by police as a possible first kill. Sleuthing this disappearance on this thread seems appropriate IMHO.

 

[Spinnaker]

The Cutler disappearance has been postulated to be connected to the CSK by police as a possible first kill. Sleuthing this disappearance on this thread seems appropriate IMHO.

Agree with Bunnie - I think there are however mixed views amongst sleuthers. Not ruled out tho so good to investigate.


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[meticulously]

Fiat entering ocean off boat ramp at Cott beach, 800N (10km/hr over 4s)
Car is pushed off 1988 boat ramp in front of current Indiana location.

Assume car floats out to between pylon and groyne and settles upside down.

Assume damage to Fiat happens when it is being towed to shore.

It seems extremely difficult to have an old car floating out .
It would good to know what the wave power was , it is a crucial factor in figuring it out . There's a possibility that the waves were powerful and that is very very different than if it was a calm sea . Theres a few different possibilities once that has been factored in .


#Innerchild , thanks for the work you have done thats the best research on the car disposal investigations that ive seen . Especially the groyne pics , well done .

.

 

[Bunnie]

This is what the Cott groyne was like in the 1980's IMO.

Actually, I think the pictures you have are after the repairs in 2007. Cottesloe groyne had been suffering erosion issues and storm damage for years. IMHO it used to be a lot flatter.
https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov....tesloe-groyne-repairs-to-begin-this-week.aspx
My recollection of Cottesloe groyne was that you stepped ONTO the rocks on the side, not stepping/climbing UP like you do now. I remarked on this to my children at sculptures by the sea (in all honesty, I think they will tell you I say it every time we go to Cottesloe)

 

[Innerchild]

It seems extremely difficult to have an old car floating out .
It would good to know what the wave power was , it is a crucial factor in figuring it out . There's a possibility that the waves were powerful and that is very very different than if it was a calm sea . Theres a few different possibilities once that has been factored in .

#Innerchild , thanks for the work you have done thats the best research on the car disposal investigations that ive seen . Especially the groyne pics , well done .

.

Waves would keep car on shore. Tide was coming in as well. Extremely unlikely one ton car moved from the ocean entry point off boat ramp IMO.

 

[Innerchild]

Actually, I think the pictures you have are after the repairs in 2007. Cottesloe groyne had been suffering erosion issues and storm damage for years. IMHO it used to be a lot flatter.
https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov....tesloe-groyne-repairs-to-begin-this-week.aspx
My recollection of Cottesloe groyne was that you stepped ONTO the rocks on the side, not stepping/climbing UP like you do now. I remarked on this to my children at sculptures by the sea (in all honesty, I think they will tell you I say it every time we go to Cottesloe)

Hi Bunnie, thanks you might be right. But from my memory the only reconstruction was done in 2007 to make it look like what it does now, which I think is around 100 cm and you have to climb to get up.

IMO it stayed the same from 1960 until 2007.

However the photo could be misleading. I remember being able to set up on it as well. After the first step you took another step to approx 40 or 50 cm and then walked across it.