Australia Australia - Claremont SK, 1996-97, Perth, WA - #14

[petedavo.au]

Spinnaker, I agree the ocean is a force and decided to try to calculate the impact of the force of the car hitting ocean and comparing to other scenarios.

The damage to the Fiat is very specific, with the roof crushed to almost the bottom of the windows, looking at the small picture of when it was dragged out of the ocean (attachment at end of this post). It looks like the point of impact was the roof. Have hardly ever heard of the damage being discussed in newspaper, let alone any investigation into this. So a while ago I decided to try and calculated the forces experienced on the car and compare to the corresponding damage to the car, all based on a 1968 Fiat 125.

Be aware serious maths ahead.
Whenever there is an interaction between two objects, there is a force upon each of the objects. Force is a quantity that is measured using the standard metric unit known as the Newton. A Newton is abbreviated by an "N." One Newton is the amount of force required to give a 1-kg mass an acceleration of 1 m/s/s. It is calculated by multiplying the mass of the object and the acceleration or deceleration of the object of something hitting the object. F = m x a.

To calculate force needed to damage 1968 Fiat 125 in different scenarios, you first need to calculate or estimate acceleration (or deceleration) for each scenario.

Acceleration is the rate of change of velocity with respect to Time.

Acceleration= (V2-V1) km/h / Time (s) required to travelling this distance.

Senarios

1 The train hitting the Fiat deceleration was a = (39 – 0) divided by 32sec =1.219 km/hr.s

2. Fiat rolling 4 times, est. a = (100 to 0) divided by 4 sec =25 km/h.s

3. Fiat driven into ocean at Cott boat ramp est. a = (10 to 0) in 4 sec = 2.5 km/hr.s

Fiat hitting groyne while in water est: a = (2 to 0) in 4 sec = 0.5 km/hr.s

4. Fiat accelerating off groyne and hitting rocks or water est: a = (60 to 0) in 4 sec = 15km/hr.s


1. Train hitting Fiat. Hit at 39 km/hr and took 32 sec to stop.

My answer on google as to how heavy is a locomotor engine was 192,000–196,000 kg.

F = m x a F = 192,000 x 1.219 = 65,013 N


2. Fiat rolling 4 times (you tube clip) Wikispecs give mass of 1968 Fiat 125 as 1150 kg

F=m x a F = 1150 x 25 = 7,986 N

Screen grab after 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] roll shows little structural damage, mostly wheels.


3. Fiat driven into ocean at Cott boat ramp

F = m x a F = 1150 x 2.5 = 798 N

Fiat hitting groyne while in water

F = m x a F = 700 (lighter in water) x 0.5 = 97N
May hit groyne more than once but may also have no acceleration, which is a change in velocity. Movement in water may be a constant velocity.


4. Fiat accelerating off groyne and hitting rocks or water.

I used a very generous 60 km/hr for this calculation as I’d estimate it would need about that speed to ramp over the rocks. However it is a driverless car. It would almost certainly drift to the south and not to Cott beach if it launched off groyne.

F = m x a F = 1150 x 15 = 4791 N

Driving the Fiat off the groyne (4,800N) generates much less force and less damage than the fiat rolling 4 times (8,000N), on a road at a speed of 100km/hr. The Fiat rolling on the road had minimal structural damage despite larger estimated forces.

The actual damage to the car as shown by the small picture below, IMO caused by something is closer to being hit by a train at 39 km hr (65,000N) than any scenario entering water at Cott (1000N?) or rolling 4 times on hard surface at 100 km/ hr (8,000N).

These forces are estimates and only to give a general idea of the forces necessary to cause damage to 1968 Fiat 125. Regardless IMO, someone went to enormous effort to put the car here, for reasons very important to them.

It sends a westerly beacon, but there has to be more to it than this.

Door pillars don't look all that strong. I'd assumed that the car ended up being upside down when being hitched to a tow line and being winched to the beach, thus being dragged upside down in shallow water the weight of the vehicle being towed from a line attached to the chassis, the roof taking all the weight of the car and the friction of being winched in would've dug the roof in scooping sand as front windows were open making the roof a sand anchor, thus would've popped the roof virtually off the car as it was forcibly dragged to shore. Thus I think the damage was inflicted in it's recovery. The back seat probably floated out through the open window as a lot of cars of that era, the back seats weren't bolted on but clipped on for easy cleaning, like my old 1st car, a HR Holden. IMO.

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[Spinnaker]

Door pillars don't look all that strong. I'd assumed that the car ended up being upside down when being hitched to a tow line and being winched to the beach, thus being dragged upside down in shallow water the weight of the vehicle being towed from a line attached to the chassis, the roof taking all the weight of the car and the friction of being winched in would've dug the roof in scooping sand as front windows were open making the roof a sand anchor, thus would've popped the roof virtually off the car as it was forcibly dragged to shore. Thus I think the damage was inflicted in it's recovery. The back seat probably floated out through the open window as a lot of cars of that era, the back seats weren't bolted on but clipped on for easy cleaning, like my old 1st car, a HR Holden. IMO.

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Good point, thanks PD.


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[Spinnaker]

Few good images showing the Cottesloe reef and one with measurements - note the reef directly in front of boat ramp.

 

[nini83]

Great point PD!

I'm pretty sure the Daily news article in archives mentioned there was no damage to the car...

As you mentioned the car was towed out of the surf hence the damage.

There was video of this and I'm relying on memory but Channel 9 Perth during the late 90s did a 2 hour special on missing people, I remember the Kerry Turner part because of the purple Datsun they showed and they spoke to Julie Cutlers Dad at Cott beach for the show and it flashed to the car being retrieved from 9 news archives.

Door pillars don't look all that strong. I'd assumed that the car ended up being upside down when being hitched to a tow line and being winched to the beach, thus being dragged upside down in shallow water the weight of the vehicle being towed from a line attached to the chassis, the roof taking all the weight of the car and the friction of being winched in would've dug the roof in scooping sand as front windows were open making the roof a sand anchor, thus would've popped the roof virtually off the car as it was forcibly dragged to shore. Thus I think the damage was inflicted in it's recovery. The back seat probably floated out through the open window as a lot of cars of that era, the back seats weren't bolted on but clipped on for easy cleaning, like my old 1st car, a HR Holden. IMO.

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[anna.w]

Innerchild, how do you think a driverless car accelerates?

Genuine question, by the way. Someone has drawn my attention to the possibility that my phrasing sounded snippy.

Snippy, the Accidentally Terse Kangaroo.

 

[Spinnaker]

This is today at Cottesloe as every year the water hits the boat ramp without tide or weather. The bottom of Indiana tearooms

Thank you for sharing this pic Sloofski, Indeed this pic shows that it would be exceedingly easy to push/ roll a car into the water in these conditions. As shown in the previous pics also, there is reef quite close to this area also.

 

[Spinnaker]

For those Sleuthers who are unsure where the boat ramp is (as shown in Sloofski's pic) - I have circled on the attached photo. Please excuse my editing skills as not great!

EDIT: As an addition - I have also circled the hill next to Indiana's (shown in Sloofski's second pic) and also the car park where the Cottesloe abduction took place (Lakeway Drive-in).

 

[Sloofski]

Thank you for sharing this pic Sloofski, Indeed this pic shows that it would be exceedingly easy to push/ roll a car into the water in these conditions. As shown in the previous pics also, there is reef quite close to this area also.[/QUOTE

A car could easily be rolled down the hill next to indiana tearooms and straight into the water

 

[CaptainTurbid]

I'm sure this opinion has been posted before - given the numerous (understatement!!) posts about geographical positioning... but this is how it looks to me (assuming JC & KT were victims of CSK):

Julie Cutler - West
Kerry Turner - East
KK victim ('left for dead') - Central
Sarah Spiers - ???
Jane Rimmer - South
Ciara Glennon - North

A very simplistic view, but I would think SS would be Central to 'replace' the KK victim who survived

All my unfounded opinion of course!

So the bodies would form a cross or crucifix if you drew it on a map? I wonder if CSK ever played Police Quest?


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[Spinnaker]

For those Sleuthers who are unsure where the boat ramp is (as shown in Sloofski's pic) - I have circled on the attached photo. Please excuse my editing skills as not great!

EDIT: As an addition - I have also circled the hill next to Indiana's (shown in Sloofski's second pic) and also the car park where the Cottesloe abduction took place (Lakeway Drive-in).

Interesting proximity the position of the Cottesloe abduction and the end location of JC's car - this is amplified when looking at the pic.

 

[petedavo.au]

I wonder if Claremont Ghost was just confused about architectural styles? Here's a typical California Bungalow for instance...

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[Innerchild]

Door pillars don't look all that strong. I'd assumed that the car ended up being upside down when being hitched to a tow line and being winched to the beach, thus being dragged upside down in shallow water the weight of the vehicle being towed from a line attached to the chassis, the roof taking all the weight of the car and the friction of being winched in would've dug the roof in scooping sand as front windows were open making the roof a sand anchor, thus would've popped the roof virtually off the car as it was forcibly dragged to shore. Thus I think the damage was inflicted in it's recovery. The back seat probably floated out through the open window as a lot of cars of that era, the back seats weren't bolted on but clipped on for easy cleaning, like my old 1st car, a HR Holden. IMO.

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Thanks PD and everyone else for replying, I try to answer all and I also have photos from yesterday at Cott beach to post later. I am still not sure how important knowing how the car got into the ocean is, but I think it's probably important to try to establish the facts if possible.

Everyone seems agreed that the car was found Wednesday morning on 22nd June 1988. It was seen in the ocean with its lights on and upside down in the middle (approx) of Cott beach. It was towed to shore. There is a picture of it after it was retrieved (and maybe another image that I still haven't sourced after retrieval) on its wheels with the roof squashed to around the bottom of the window. Both back doors were locked. Both front doors were unlocked, windows were all up except for drivers, which was down. Lights were on and it was estimated by this and battery, that car had been in water for a few hours before it was found. Back seat had been washed up south of Cott groyne on Monday 20th June in afternoon (this was from a newspaper report in the days after JC went missing. All later reports just say the back seat was found washed up of a beach south of the groyne, without saying when).

The tides at the times were:
21Jun88 Low tide .73m 8.27pm
22Jun88 High tide .97 10.07am

Comparison to yesterday when picture was posted looking down boat ramp was:
18Jun2017 high tide 1.1m 12.20 pm
Assume tide was three quarter high and still coming in on Wed 22nd June 1988. Reef at mid Cott beach is never exposed and only at low tide could a person possibly stand on it, from my experience. Check hundreds of photos of people swimming. I'm fairly certain the mid reef or any others would not have been a factor when towing car in, as there would be 2 to 3 m of water over them. No other reefs come close to being exposed. Reefs to the north of Cott pylon are different and close to surface, although its possible to swim over them and not touch them most of the time you would be able to stand on them.

Car was on it's wheels on sand, it weight over a ton, 1,150 kgs, and would have been very difficult to put on its wheels if it was towed along the sand upside down. I'm assuming the car was righted in the water, when it was a lot lighter. But if it was dragged along the sand, I think you are correct and it would have done damage, I could try to calculate how much. I'm assuming it would have been towed up the sand on its wheels where it ended up as this seems logical but may not have been.

Pillars were still attached to the roof and undamaged after being hit by a train. My assumption from this, is that pillars were strong.

Back seat? Back doors locked, windows closed. My memory of the event favours the reports that it was washed up on the same day of disappearance, later reports that I've read don't seem to mention when it was found, and if true only makes the scenario more unbelievable.

 

[meticulously]

Thank you for sharing this pic Sloofski, Indeed this pic shows that it would be exceedingly easy to push/ roll a car into the water in these conditions. As shown in the previous pics also, there is reef quite close to this area also.[/QUOTE

A car could easily be rolled down the hill next to indiana tearooms and straight into the water

Thanks for the pictures #sloofski .
Is this how it was in june 1988 ? Thats the important thing regarding this access point .

.

 

[Innerchild]

Thank you for sharing this pic Sloofski, Indeed this pic shows that it would be exceedingly easy to push/ roll a car into the water in these conditions. As shown in the previous pics also, there is reef quite close to this area also.[/QUOTE

A car could easily be rolled down the hill next to indiana tearooms and straight into the water

Thanks Sloofski, for picture of Cott beach access road leading down from Marine parade. I think the attacker(s) probably intended to do that, but when they arrived at the beach, maybe around 3.00am the tide was only half way in. There would have been a lot of sand and the car may not have reached the ocean. Yesterday I took photos of the sand directly west of this access road just after high tide (will post later) and don't think the momentum would have carried the car into the water. IMO the car seat would most probably had blood or evidence on it was removed and thrown from the end of groyne, then car was driven away to make another plan to dispose of it. Car seat I believe reports it washed up south of the groyne later that day. Matches tide and costal drift patterns for it to end up there. I don't think it was washed out of the car as one police officer suggested. Car found two days later.

 

[Innerchild]

Genuine question, by the way. Someone has drawn my attention to the possibility that my phrasing sounded snippy.

Snippy, the Accidentally Terse Kangaroo.

Genuine question, by the way. Someone has drawn my attention to the possibility that my phrasing sounded snippy.

Snippy, the Accidentally Terse Kangaroo.

Hi anna, no snippy offence taken. Good question. I don't even think a driverless car along the groyne would be able to even have velocity, but for the sake of fairness I tried to calculate the forces of a car entering water off the groyne.

I estimated the car would have to be travelling 60km/hr to be able to launch over the rocks of the groyne leaving no evidence on them.

I calculated deceleration by the change in velocity from when it left the rocks at 60km/hr to zero when it hit the water an estimated 4 sec later, which was 15 m.s.s. A force is exerted when you have a change in velocity over the time it takes to make the change, which is the acceleration (deceleration). The car would have been decelerating but still would impact the water and have a force exerted.

I don't see how a driverless car could reach 60 km/hr, rocks were raised so you had to step up to walk on them, so would also need a ramp. No evidence was found on the rocks to indicate a car had hit them that I'm aware.Coastal drift and tide would have taken the car south of groyne.

However it would exert a decent force, possible about half of a rollover.

 

[meticulously]

Quote;
Innerchild "Coastal drift and tide would have taken the car south of groyne." (Unquote )

Great post and information thanks innerchild .
The car most likely would sink and remain in the same spot i think.
Unless as ive said before there was big swell / waves .
Theres very little current generally along the metro shoreline and would have to be very rare circumstances for the current to be strong enough to move that car. moo

http://oceancurrent.imos.org.au/news.htm
"Currents along the Perth Metropolitan coastal area respond to wind patterns. The tides have little influence. During the summer months, the wind pattern between Cottesloe and Rottnest Island is usually dominated by the land/sea breeze system. In the morning, the wind is easterly (i.e. blows from the land to the ocean). During the late morning to early afternoon, the sea breeze changes direction to blow from the south or south-southwest. The sea breeze is usually both much stronger and longer lasting over the ocean than over the land. All of these factors mean that the prevailing currents are usually northward, particularly after several days of sea breezes. This dominant pattern is illustrated above right.[http://oceancurrent]

The next most common weather pattern for the region features strong easterly winds. The current at these times flows southwards (below right). This happens when we have several really hot days (i.e. high 30's+) in a row. This is what happened in*last year's race*.

The current accelerates locally as it flows around Rottnest Island, so currents are stronger along both ends of the island. As the swimmers start off from Cottesloe, the currents will probably be weak and not have much influence. However, as the swimmers get closer to Rottnest Island (about 2-3 km away) they are more likely to experience strong currents. The direction of the currents would depend on the prevailing wind conditions (see above). These currents may be strong (up to 1 knot or 0.5 m/s)."


Email bom.gov for archives of weather here : webcharts@bom.gov.au

15th-21st june "88 is what id like to see data from thanks .
.

 

[mandy.maree]

Rachel Cutler was 10 when Julie, her half sister went missing.
She said police had told her father that they suspected Julie had been taken by the same person who abducted three women from the Claremont Hotel in the 1990's.
"Julie disappeared seven years before the first Claremont abduction," Rachel said this week.
"The connection was mentioned by police, who said the case was being looked at in association with the Claremont Serial Killings.
"But the details of what was said during those conversations is not for us to say, it is up to the police.

With advances in technology, we hope DNA can be obtained off cigarette filters that were found in Julie's car," she said.
"They were from a type of cigarette we know Julie didn't smoke and it might prove to be the lead we need."

During the Claremont murder investigations, it was reported that Julie had attended classes at the University with a man police said was their prime suspect.

A plaque for Julie will be erected at her mother Robyn's grave at Karrakatta cemetery.


https://www.findagrave.com/cgi-bin/fg.cgi?page=gr&GRid=103679664

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[Innerchild]

The car most likely would sink and remain in the same spot i think.
Unless as ive said before there was big swell / waves .
Theres very little current generally along the metro shoreline and would have to be very rare circumstances for the current to be strong enough to move that car. moo

http://oceancurrent.imos.org.au/news.htm
"Currents along the Perth Metropolitan coastal area respond to wind patterns. The tides have little influence. During the summer months, the wind pattern between Cottesloe and Rottnest Island is usually dominated by the land/sea breeze system. In the morning, the wind is easterly (i.e. blows from the land to the ocean). During the late morning to early afternoon, the sea breeze changes direction to blow from the south or south-southwest. The sea breeze is usually both much stronger and longer lasting over the ocean than over the land. All of these factors mean that the prevailing currents are usually northward, particularly after several days of sea breezes. This dominant pattern is illustrated above right.[http://oceancurrent]

The next most common weather pattern for the region features strong easterly winds. The current at these times flows southwards (below right). This happens when we have several really hot days (i.e. high 30's+) in a row. This is what happened in*last year's race*.

The current accelerates locally as it flows around Rottnest Island, so currents are stronger along both ends of the island. As the swimmers start off from Cottesloe, the currents will probably be weak and not have much influence. However, as the swimmers get closer to Rottnest Island (about 2-3 km away) they are more likely to experience strong currents. The direction of the currents would depend on the prevailing wind conditions (see above). These currents may be strong (up to 1 knot or 0.5 m/s)."


Email bom.gov for archives of weather here : webcharts@bom.gov.au

15th-21st june "88 is what id like to see data from thanks .
.[/QUOTE]

Thanks Meticulously, I also think it would have sunk and remained in the same spot. Your quote is from the summer months with the morning easterly and afternoon sea S/W breezes prevailing. In June you almost certainly wouldn't have easterlies in morning, most likely calm with minimal breeze or light S/W or possible light northerly.

 

[DRT]

Rachel Cutler was 10 when Julie, her half sister went missing.
She said police had told her father that they suspected Julie had been taken by the same person who abducted three women from the Claremont Hotel in the 1990's.
"Julie disappeared seven years before the first Claremont abduction," Rachel said this week.
"The connection was mentioned by police, who said the case was being looked at in association with the Claremont Serial Killings.
"But the details of what was said during those conversations is not for us to say, it is up to the police.

With advances in technology, we hope DNA can be obtained off cigarette filters that were found in Julie's car," she said.
"They were from a type of cigarette we know Julie didn't smoke and it might prove to be the lead we need."

During the Claremont murder investigations, it was reported that Julie had attended classes at the University with a man police said was their prime suspect.

A plaque for Julie will be erected at her mother Robyn's grave at Karrakatta cemetery.


https://www.findagrave.com/cgi-bin/fg.cgi?page=gr&GRid=103679664

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From my previous post the reason JC was linked to the CSK was because of a possible connection with LW with LW commencing the same Theatre arts course at WAIT. Quoting another Websleuths link for this.

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sho...ralia-5/page12 thread #175

The above has a link to a dropbox with a Sunday Times Article.

 

[Innerchild]

Thank you for sharing this pic Sloofski, Indeed this pic shows that it would be exceedingly easy to push/ roll a car into the water in these conditions. As shown in the previous pics also, there is reef quite close to this area also.

Attached is photo from boatshed looking to top of boat ramp. In 80's the boatshed was an ugly garage type building with promenade footpath about 2/3 further back. Boat ramp started from around the 1988 "crack". Not the boaties crack! I wasn't a boatie but helped many times push the boats up the ramp with the foam rollers and it wasn't nearly as steep as present day. Present day Indiana's pylons would have been in water in 80's IMO.