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I'll propose another common saying that helps to distinguish probability.
It's the doctor's motto, " When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras."
Of course there are rare diseases and diagnoses that are in fact zebras, but almost all the time, a doctor's training will allow them to diagnose what the symptoms clearly reveal. Horses.
Of course we all have opinions, to which we are entitled on WS, and I respect that.
IMO, though, this is what it seems to be. Before she was found I can understand why we, as well of course LE and Kiely's friends and family, had to speculate on every possible scenario. The police did have to consider abduction, for example, and direct their resources to interviews, searching for her parked car everywhere, plowing through tips, searching through any videos that may have shown something important.
But now, it seems to me, the obvious scenario is the obvious scenario.
There is of course an outside chance that there is foul play, but with all respect, IMO some of the scenarios being laid out now would require logistics that are vastly improbable. I also believe at least one teenager would crack under the pressure and tell what happened, if there was someone or multiple people who are responsible for Kiely's death.
We've all heard about people who have driven the same highway every day, for years, and then one day, under the influence, they drive the wrong way on that same highway and kill themselves or others. Multiply that by Kiely being 16. No matter how much she drove a snowmobile etc., she just did not have the years of experience that may have saved her, especially if she was intoxicated with the attendant slowed-down reflexes.
No shame/blame on Kiely, but I would be much more suspicious if she weren't at a nighttime party in the dark woods where substances were being consumed. IMO, the circumstances of someone, a very young driver at that, ending up this way is a tragic and heartbreaking horse, not zebra.
Moo