Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

[asyousay]

can anyone tell me how 2 prisoners got this ?

I was wondering the same unless they have been on day release.

 

[MJPeony]

can anyone tell me how 2 prisoners got this ?

Was wondering the same thing.

Only way I can see is if it came from a visitor, OR it came from a guard. The latter would be very concerning, as it would mean it would surely quickly spread to the other prisoners.

It’s terrible for the prisoners, but at least a prison is already on a natural “lockdown” or quarantine for the most part. They would presumably be able to more easily contain the spread by prohibiting visitors for a while.

But of course you’d have to be concerned about the workers/guards spreading it to the general public.... and it only takes one.... so never mind!



MOO

 

[JerseyGirl]

can anyone tell me how 2 prisoners got this ?

Prisoners were told about the tests today, with one of the prisoners suspected to have the virus having recently been in Thailand.

Reports of 'two prisoners being tested for coronavirus at Bullingdon'

The men are inmates at Bullingdon prison near Bicester.

Two inmates tested for coronavirus at prison in Oxfordshire | Metro News

Certain cell blocks will be shut down for the next 72 hours as health officials investigate.

Cleaners in hazmat suits were spotted inside the prison.

Two prisoners being tested for coronavirus in Oxfordshire jail

 

[sloane7777]

I don't think humans have enough common sense, like the couple who went shopping...GEEZE , I'm with Beatrix , I'm terrified period. (again generally Terrified about a lot of things )

 

[Tadpole12]

from dixiegirl's notes on WHO presser.

"Q Animal source identified.
A Very similar to bats. But when sampling in Wuhan, didn't find in bats. So we think perhaps intermediate source, but not found what amplifier source is yet. Studies are ongoing in looking for animals. Now market closed, evidence doesn't exists anymore. Still ongoing investigation."

ETA: ie SARS, palm civet (Paguma larvata)

 

[dixiegirl1035]

The Chinese financial news website Caixin is reporting on new research which suggests that the incubation period for the coronavirus is as long as 24 days rather than the previously believed 14 days.

The study – which is based on data gathered from more than 1,000 coronavirus patients in China – also found that fewer than half of the patients showed fever symptoms when they first saw doctors.

The researchers from Chinese hospitals and medical schools found that relying on signs of fever to identify the virus in its early stages could result in large numbers of infected people going undiscovered. Fever occurred in just 43.8% of patients, but later developed in 87.9% following hospitalization.

Coronavirus: two UK prisoners being tested as vaccine could be ready in 18 months – latest news

From what I have read (MOO, no link) the 14 days was because 95% of the cases were within that timeframe. They have always known of outliers, and those up to 24 days etc, but decided on the 14 days. Sorry I don't have link, but I read long ago in a peer reviewed article. I'll try to find later if I have time in RL to do so in the next 24 hours.

It's a statistical thing that was done on the quarantines, not that they thought they would catch 100%. They had to balance with human rights etc as was talked about in the WHO presser today. I think, like we see DA's do in cases, they are anticipating questions that haven't been asked when they do the simplest things that we don't understand until later iykwim.

ETA: I'm going back to 8th grade... is 95% two statistical deviations on a curve? It's all math for this folks

 

[dixiegirl1035]

BBM

So I don’t understand this: If they test the cruise ship passengers and let them leave the ship if they test negative- while some others on board are testing positive- there is no way to know if the “negative patients” were actually exposed to the virus from the ones testing positive. Could they not still just be in the incubation period?

If you have merely acquired the virus, do you immediately test positive? Or does “incubation period” only mean the time to symptoms?

Clearly the virus is making it’s way through the cruise ship, as more and more people are testing positive and becoming symptomatic. This “14 day quarantine” is smoke and mirrors as far as I can see based on the data. MOO.

Initially, they grouped together contacts for tracing. (remember that post about a group in the CLOSED DOWN kitchen.. they were identified as a contact "group" and the guys was pizzed iirc to be linked with them MOO). Anyhoo, the WHO sent out on twitter that if someone in their close contact group came down with it, all in that group start over their 14 days.

No link, I think this info is in MSM by now.

 

[Tadpole12]

I'd expect he's referring to mass produced vaccine to cover the majority of the global population? I would have thought much lower numbers of vaccine could be produced before then, but it would initially be restricted to limited human testing in very close contacts of confirmed cases, and then go out from there to do ring vaccination while still developing mass supplies to cover the sort of numbers who take the yearly flu vaccination (in the UK that's mostly people who are likely to be more susceptible, carers, etc) and keep making the vaccine in case total global vaccination is necessary.

But another thing to consider is whether the first year's vaccine will be effective in later years (if Covid-19 returns for more seasonal outbreaks).

That name sounds like something out of a futuristic sci-fi disaster movie (Sorry, but doesn't it?)

Also consider the future "equitable distribution of vaccine" within global
populations.

 

[Hatfield]

Thousands of people have been ordered into quarantine in the Chinese city of Tianjin after a cluster of new coronavirus cases were linked to one department store.

Nearly a third of the 102 new patients in Tianjin worked or shopped at a department store in the Baodi district, or had close contact with employees or customers.

The authorities said those customers would be quarantined, and the department store would be sealed and disinfected.

Coronavirus: two UK prisoners being tested as vaccine could be ready in 18 months – latest news

This is very interesting to me. It almost sounds like something or someone in that store was a "Super Spreader". I think it would pay off to have health officials try to determine the exact spot where the Virus was infecting others in the store. It may help us to know so that we can prevent other future "Super Spreader" situations.

This is the second or third time I have seen where there was a cluster of cases originating from a single source. Its very important to find the exact source of the infections so we can prevent future single source outbreaks of a large scale like that.

 

[Henry2326]

The director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) has reportedly warned that while almost all of the confirmed coronavirus cases are in China, the outbreak constitutes a “very grave threat” for the rest of the world.

“With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during opening remarks of a meeting between more than 400 researchers and national authorities, Reuters reported Tuesday.

His comments come less than 24 hours after he told reporters at the UN health agency’s headquarters in Geneva that cases detected outside China “could be the spark that becomes a bigger fire.”

WHO chief says coronavirus outbreak 'holds a very grave threat' for world

 

[Hatfield]

can anyone tell me how 2 prisoners got this ?

Just guessing but maybe contact visits with loved ones. Even if just hand holding or talking close to the person maybe. Doesnt necessarily have to be a real conjugal visit.

 

[MJPeony]

Initially, they grouped together contacts for tracing. (remember that post about a group in the kitchen.. they were a contact "group" MOO). Anyhoo, the WHO sent out on twitter that if someone in their close contact group came down with it, all in that group start over their 14 days.

No link, I think this info is in MSM by now.

What I worry about are these articles suggesting the virus can be transmitted through pipes- and potentially ventilation (can’t remember links).

I’m tellin ya, I can’t get these aerosol plume concepts out of my head

 

[JerseyGirl]

The use of the term ‘super-spreader’ to describe individuals who inadvertently infect others with coronavirus is “deeply, deeply unhelpful”, according to a leading WHO official.

Dr Michael Ryan, executive director at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, said:

I really wish we could refrain from personalizing these issues down to individuals who spread disease. This is deeply, deeply unhelpful

People are not at fault - they are never at fault in this situation, so let’s be extremely careful here, it’s really really important that we don’t attach unnecessary stigma to this.

He added that the case in which a British businessman inadvertently infected at least 11 people was by no means a “massive ‘super spreading’ event.

This is an unusual event and it is a wake-up call because there may be other circumstances in which this disease can spread like this, so we need to study those circumstances for sure, but it doesn’t change our overall assessment.

Coronavirus: two UK prisoners being tested as vaccine could be ready in 18 months – latest news

 

[MimosaMornings]

Four people in North Carolina monitored for coronavirus

 

[dixiegirl1035]

The director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) has reportedly warned that while almost all of the confirmed coronavirus cases are in China, the outbreak constitutes a “very grave threat” for the rest of the world.

“With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during opening remarks of a meeting between more than 400 researchers and national authorities, Reuters reported Tuesday.

His comments come less than 24 hours after he told reporters at the UN health agency’s headquarters in Geneva that cases detected outside China “could be the spark that becomes a bigger fire.”

WHO chief says coronavirus outbreak 'holds a very grave threat' for world

Yes, they are doing "baby steps" to educate and kudos for them to do daily media briefings. KUDOS for sure. What I was shocked at today when viewing live is they didn't have an answer to the question of China doing the redefinition of what should be reported. And yesterdays number on the site I followed...didn't increase as expected.

That sucks if so... and it's perhaps gonna take time for them to get an answer without China looking even worse, and they for SURE don't wanna pizz off China iykwim as to contributing info as they are KEY MOO

 

[Hatfield]

I don't think humans have enough common sense, like the couple who went shopping...GEEZE , I'm with Beatrix , I'm terrified period. (again generally Terrified about a lot of things )

Add me to the "Worry Wort" group. Been that way my whole life and cant help it. That is what a lot of people dont understand about us that seem to over worry about these sorts of things. Some of us naturally have high anxiety and worries about everything in life and so when something like this happens, it sends our normal worries through the roof.

Many people just dont understand we cannot stop how we are. Been that way my whole life and if it hasnt changed by now then it definitely will not change any time soon.

 

[Henry2326]

Last week, Thomas Breuer, chief medical officer of GlaxoSmithKline’s vaccine unit, said: “It will take at least 12 to 18 months, which means in the acute situation we are in now - at least in China - that will not create a benefit.”

At least a dozen drugmakers are working on vaccines, or antivirals and other treatments to help those infected.

Ghebreyesus urged countries to be “as aggressive as possible” in fighting the newly named Covid-19 coronavirus.

If the world doesn’t want to wake up and consider the virus as public enemy number one, I don’t think we will will learn from our lessons.

We are still in containment strategy and should not allow the virus to have a space to have local transmission.

Coronavirus: two UK prisoners being tested as vaccine could be ready in 18 months – latest news

 

[Henry2326]

Yes, they are doing "baby steps" to educate and kudos for them to do daily media briefings. KUDOS for sure. What I was shocked at today when viewing live is they didn't have an answer to the question of China doing the redefinition of what should be reported. And yesterdays number on the site I followed...didn't increase as expected.

That sucks if so... and it's perhaps gonna take time for them to get an answer without China looking even worse, and they for SURE don't wanna pizz off China iykwim as to contributing info as they are KEY MOO

I don't think they will address it.....I think they are giving hints to the next phase which is countries with less resources. China's numbers will not be relevant when that happens.

 

[Amonet]

I’ve started to take a closer look at the published numbers for SARS and MERS for comparisons.

Linked below is the consensus summary from WHO for SARS.
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf

There’s a lot of technical data for anyone that’s interested in reading through it, but I found the following to be interesting regarding the incubation period...

BBM

“1. Incubation period
The estimates for the incubation period for SARS are starting to converge as tabled below. Estimates are derived from an analysis of SARS cases with single point exposures or exposure over a well-defined interval (Table 1). They will later be refined by the addition of laboratory data.
Most countries reported a median incubation period of 4-5 days, and a mean of 4-6 days. The minimum reported incubation period of 1 day was reported from China (4 cases) and Singapore (3 cases) and the maximum of 14 days was reported by China.
Donnelly et al analysed 1425 cases notified to 28 April in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (Hong Kong SAR) for whom epidemiological, demographic and clinical data were linked. The data were fitted to γ distributions by maximum likelihood estimation methods with allowance for censoring. The maximum likelihood estimate of the mean and variance of the time from infection to onset was 6.37 days (95% CI 5.29-7.75) and 16.69 days respectively; therefore 95% of the patients would experience the onset of symptoms within 14.22 days of infection.5 Four Centres stated that the maximum observed incubation period was 10 days.
There was considerable discussion about the range of the incubation period and the effect of “outliers” at the upper end of the incubation period on existing recommendations on the isolation of cases and their contacts. “Outliers” beyond a 10-day maximum incubation period are few in number and have not necessarily been subjected to rigorous and standardized investigation. However, it was noted that other mammalian coronavirus infections have long right-hand tails for incubation periods, so a long tail is also biologically plausible for the SARS-CoV. Statistical methods can be used to enable the inclusion of cases with defined periods of exposure rather than point exposures alone in order to increase sample size. There was also some concern that SARS cases arising from a single exposure may not be representative of all SARS cases.
Centres agreed that a detailed investigation of “outliers” is needed before public health policy is changed to extend the incubation period beyond 10 days, as any extension of the incubation period will have considerable impact on health service practice and resources. Participants also agreed on the need to combine data sets into a standardized international data set (Nd200 cases) to refine current estimates of incubation period. Although the focus of the investigation should be on the right-hand tail of the distribution (maximum incubation period) because of its public health importance, the shortest incubation periods seen in SARS influence the mean incubation period more than the upper tail and should also be reviewed.
It remains unclear whether the route of transmission influences the incubation period.”

Also, if you take a look at the” Case Fatality Rates” on pages 10 & 11 - specifically Table 3. - I think it’s very interesting (& IMO, very telling) that
the CFR (Case Fatality Ratios) average around 15% for all reporting areas with the exception of 1.
The People’s Republic of China (which has the largest reported cases by far) reported a CFR of 1.4%.


I’ll also add that with so many questions surrounding the accuracy of the numbers being reported, and with so many “assumptions” when comparing the 3 viruses, I don’t think we should forget that SARS has a mortality rate around 15% and MERS has a mortality rate around 34%

Just some interesting facts to consider....

Fortunately we have figures from outside China to compare to, and right now they're not showing anything like SARS or MERS in mortality rates. But as they lag confirmation dates, we will have to keep an eye on them.

 

[JerseyGirl]

The coronavirus epidemic could grip about two-thirds of the world’s population if the deadly bug is not controlled, a top public health official said — as another expert predicted that cases in China could peak this month and fade away by April.

Most experts believe that each person infected can go on to transmit coronavirus to about 2.5 other people — creating an “attack rate” of 60 to 80 percent, Leung told the paper.

“Sixty percent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” he said.

World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that the epidemic is far from over.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/11/expert-warns-coronavirus-could-infect-60-of-worlds-population/