Lengthy article lots of detail.
Feb 11 2020
The coronavirus cruise ship quarantine is a scary public health experiment
''It’s a hypochondriac’s worst nightmare and a startling public health crisis: The
largest coronavirus outbreak outside of mainland China is currently floating in Japanese waters, on a
cruise ship owned by Princess Cruises.
The outbreak was first detected when an
80-year-old passenger tested positive for the virus
on February 1, a week after disembarking in Hong Kong. By February 4, the remaining 3,700 passengers and crew of the Diamond Princess — currently docked at the port city of Yokohama, Japan — were asked to stay on the ship under quarantine orders.
Since then, the number of passengers and crew aboard the Diamond Princess infected with the virus — known as COVID-19 — has surged to 135. While those who’ve tested positive are allowed to leave the ship for treatment, the rest have to remain there until at least February 19.''
''The quarantine is supposed to end on February 19,
according to Princess Cruises, “unless there are any other unforeseen developments.” So it’s not yet clear whether it
will end then. And that’s a source of worry for reasons we’ll get to next.
2) Could the quarantine lead to more coronavirus infections?
Doctors and health researchers are increasingly dubious of this quarantine for exactly that reason. “They’ve basically trapped a bunch of people in a large container with virus,” said University of Toronto epidemiology professor David Fisman, over email. “So [I’m] assuming ‘quarantine’ is generating active transmission.”
For the same reason, Michael Mina, another epidemiologist at Harvard University, called the quarantine unethical on Twitter:''
''Their concern is driven by the details emerging from the ship, which paint an alarming portrait. According to a must-read New York Times report, as of February 10, Japanese officials had only tested 439 of the 3,700 passengers onboard for the coronavirus, citing shortages of testing supplies. This means that at least a fraction of the remaining thousands onboard may have the virus and not know it.
Among those who’ve tested positive recently are 10 crew members, “And according to employees, the infected crew members identified on Sunday had been eating in the mess hall alongside their co-workers,” the Times reports.''