Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #8

[margarita25]

JMO
Ive seen bits and pieces of news about possible reinfections and I am very interested in this too if we can find some accurate stories about people really getting reinfected.

I have always thought that once you caught an illness like the flu, that your body would build up antibodies to fight off the infection and so you usually cannot re-catch it until the next flu season. I am wondering why this coronavirus would be different if that is true.

Yes, in the last thread, a medical professional from Colorado says your body likely builds up immunity to it after you’re infected...but iirc this might also be the same article that says “Coloradoans should prepare for CV like they’re preparing for a snowstorm”... pffft

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Alabama.

I don’t want them to have any contact with my elderly parents for at least 2 weeks after they return. Who knows who else has been on this ship recently. I have zero confidence that we know for certain these things are thoroughly disinfected between cruises.

Another thing to be concerned about when cruising is the other ships that will be in port with your relative's vessel. Those ships will have passengers walking around in port, shopping, dining in local restaurants, using public transportation, visiting local tourist attractions, etc. When DH and I were in St. Thomas last month on one of our port days, there were six cruise ships docked at Havensight and another three or four ships at Crown Bay. That's more than 10,000 passengers visiting St. Thomas at the same time!

 

[Inthedetails]

JMO
Ive seen bits and pieces of news about possible reinfections and I am very interested in this too if we can find some accurate stories about people really getting reinfected.

I have always thought that once you caught an illness like the flu, that your body would build up antibodies to fight off the infection and so you usually cannot re-catch it until the next flu season. I am wondering why this coronavirus would be different if that is true.

My hunch is that the patients aren't really catching the virus "again" but are having a relapse of the same virus. It might be part of the virus's m.o. that while a patient is seemingly recovered, the virus is still there, ready to pounce and come back with a vengence.

I am not doctor....just someone who has witnessed "relapses are worse" illnesses.

jmo

 

[JerseyGirl]

Just wondering...no cases in Hawaii? It’s always been a popular vacation destination for Asians.

They haven't been tested yet, a problem here in the USA:

LATEST: Testing for coronavirus to begin soon in Hawaii; 80 are ‘self-monitoring’ statewide

The CDC has given the green light to the state’s laboratory to start testing for coronavirus.

State health officials said Hawaii could have the capacity to begin testing as early as next week.

The governor and others have expressed growing frustration in recent weeks over the inability to test for the virus because of a series of CDC stumbles, including flawed tests sent to the state.

So far, no one has been tested for the coronavirus in Hawaii.

The state Health Department says 80 people are self-monitoring. Officials said 73 of those who are self-monitoring are on Oahu. The Big Island has five people while Maui and Kauai have one each.

 

[Hatfield]

My hunch is that the patients aren't really catching the virus "again" but are having a relapse of the same virus. It might be part of the virus's m.o. that while a patient is seemingly recovered, the virus is still there, ready to pounce and come back with a vengence.

I am not doctor....just someone who has witnessed "relapses are worse" illnesses.

jmo

Great point and I tend to agree. That could explain it.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

I can help, just let me know. I have never set up a poll but willing to learn - and as long as I am on a computer and not my phone. I cant' do anything fancy on my phone.

Thanks. I will work on a poll over the next day or so and forward it to you for posting.

If anyone has suggestions for questions, options, etc. that should be included, please let me know.

 

[Henry2326]

WHO executive director: "This is a reality check for every government on the planet: wake up."
"It's really not much of an excuse at this point to get caught unawares...We've been dealing with this virus for two months now." Coronavirus live updates: FDA reports 1st drug shortage due to novel coronavirus outbreak ABC News on Twitter

ABC News on Twitter

 

[Deleted member 158085]

My hunch is that the patients aren't really catching the virus "again" but are having a relapse of the same virus. It might be part of the virus's m.o. that while a patient is seemingly recovered, the virus is still there, ready to pounce and come back with a vengence.

I am not doctor....just someone who has witnessed "relapses are worse" illnesses.

jmo

It is suspected by some that Lyme does this. Also, Epstein Barr. So it’s certainly possible.

@Medstudies where are you?

 

[margarita25]

I just want to say I am VERY interested in the “Mexico City” situation - it could spread like wildfire there, as it could anywhere, but ykwim. And also, considering the already escalated border issues...

Another thing, many of us know about these Sinaloan cartels. This is a potentially strange if not explosive dynamic and combination of the two, imo, “Ruthless Cartels and CV”...

Just some musings.

 

[margarita25]

ETA: I just remembered @Hatfield that maaaaybe the 14% reinfection figure came out of data from Guangdong, not sure moo. Making a note to look at/for this.

 

[Amonet]

Re BBM

JMO
I agree based on just looking at Italy's numbers so far which seem to closely match the death rate we have been seeing elsewhere.

This recent article says:
Italy Reports 650 Cases And 17 Deaths

and so 17/650 = 0.026 , which is 2.6%

So Italy's mortality rate based on this article seems to be close to what we have been seeing in other countries.

It of course can change if the numbers are not right or if they have not identified all the deaths or all the cases, so its hard right now until we keep getting new figures from lots of places.

The more numbers we get from other countries , the more accurate average mortality can be established.

Coronavirus Updates: Italy Reports 650 Cases And 17 Deaths

The problem with that method is that not all those cases have run their course, which could make the mortality rate higher.

But on the other hand, they might not have identified all cases, especially those with no symptoms or milder symptoms, which would make the mortality rate lower overall.

I would think that as time goes on, the mortality rates for the more severely affected groups will be the clearest to understand and get a relatively accurate rate for.

 

[Henry2326]

Italy reports 127 new cases and 3 new deaths, raising country's total to 655 cases and 17 dead Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

 

[otto]

MOO. today they have gone to risk at very high for global per WHO.

The reason they are saying this is they recognize that each country is different, and they are sensitive to that as to risk assessment.

They (WHO) will not be put in a position to say what all the world should do as to shutting down travel internationally, yet they will give each country guidance to contain or make their own decisions as an advisory agency.

They are leaving it to each country as to travel - each country should decide. And give feedback to WHO of why they are doing so. Yet within that, they are saying they think isolation has proven to be good.

Does that make sense?

ETA: Next presser by WHO will be Monday I heard at the end.

I still feel like there's a contradiction. If we imagine a world without borders, where some regions have clusters of infected people, those regions are in quarantine. The WHO and governments all agree that lockdown is the best way to prevent spread. Yet, at the same time, as soon as we impose political borders over those regions, there is no quarantine or lockdown. People from known and suspected infected regions are free to travel to non-infected regions.

Surely the WHO knew, or should have known, that containment was near impossible with unrestricted international travel. At the same time, business must go on, and I think that was the priority that influenced a decision of lockdown except for international travel.

 

[margarita25]

Just wondering...no cases in Hawaii? It’s always been a popular vacation destination for Asians.

There was something a few days ago, maybe last week, re: Hawaii and a potential case(s), and I can’t remember what the heck it was. It was something concerning, iirc. Maybe something about a flight? Moo.

——

Also, this has also been bugging me to death but a few years ago I read an article about if the US will eventually become a “masked society”...making a note to look for that.

 

[Amonet]

Just wondering...no cases in Hawaii? It’s always been a popular vacation destination for Asians.

There was a case in a man who was in Hawaii but tested positive after he left. I think they said they thought he'd caught it before going to Hawaii, and was feeling a little bit ill while he was there, and then probably more ill when he went back home (to Japan?) and got tested and confirmed infected.

It was reported that they were doing contact tracing to find people who'd been near to him while he was in Hawaii, so I guess they would have tested if anyone from that group had had symptoms?

 

[JerseyGirl]

By this weekend, 93 labs across the US are expected to have testing capabilities, Azar said. And as many as 70 companies are vying to develop a "bedside diagnostic" test for hospital use.

The US Food and Drug Administration also authorized a two-step test that will allow labs other than the CDC to test for the virus. A third step, which was causing inconclusive results, was eliminated, Azar said.

"Forty labs are qualified to already be doing that," he said.

And in Nebraska, a team of researchers are working to evaluate how effective the anvitiral drug remdesivir would be on people diagnosed with the virus. The clinical trial, taking place at the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, will test the drug first on an American who was evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

California patient with unknown origin of coronavirus is in serious condition, official says - CNN

 

[dixiegirl1035]

It is suspected by some that Lyme does this. Also, Epstein Barr. So it’s certainly possible.

@Medstudies where are you?

O/T humor for this thread, as we really need some.

Personal ad: Man with Cornavirus seeking woman with Lyme disease.

 

[Henry2326]

Nigeria’s National Centre for Disease Control says the country is more than capable of dealing with coronavirus as Africa’s most populous nation records its first case: "We successfully managed Ebola and we manage outbreaks all the time." Nigeria says it's more than capable of dealing with coronavirus

CNN International on Twitter

 

[margarita25]

There was a case in a man who was in Hawaii but tested positive after he left. I think they said they thought he'd caught it before going to Hawaii, and was feeling a little bit ill while he was there, and then probably more ill when he went back home (to Japan?) and got tested and confirmed infected.

It was reported that they were doing contact tracing to find people who'd been near to him while he was in Hawaii, so I guess they would have tested if anyone from that group had had symptoms?

Thanks, Amonet. This might have been what I was thinking of (see my post above yours).

ETA: Yea, this is exactly what I was thinking of. Thank you.

 

[cody22]

Nigeria’s National Centre for Disease Control says the country is more than capable of dealing with coronavirus as Africa’s most populous nation records its first case: "We successfully managed Ebola and we manage outbreaks all the time." Nigeria says it's more than capable of dealing with coronavirus

CNN International on Twitter

Does this mean there may be a hold-up on the 3 million dollars that a generous Nigerian Prince is sending to me ?......moo