Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #47

[otto]

Yes.......as far as I’ve read about the 1918/1920 pandemic is......

1st hit.......lowest number of deaths...

2nd hit most fatalities..

3rd hit.....somewhere between #1 and #2

This is the curve for most countries for the 1918 pandemic. Three waves, the second (October) the deadliest.



1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics

 

[LadyL]

With the coronavirus quickly becoming a new normal, home gardening is taking off, as more and more Americans start to grow their own fruits and vegetables. But in Michigan, many stores have been barred from selling seeds, soils, plants, and other gardening supplies.

Michigan Bans Many Stores From Selling Seeds, Home Gardening Supplies, Calls Them “Not Necessary”

(I posted this in the gardening thread too.)

 

[pocketaccent]

L.A. County reports 55 more people have died from COVID-19, marking another single-day high in deaths

Los Angeles County health officials reported Thursday that another 55 COVID-19 patients have died, marking the third day in a row the county has seen a single-day high in fatalities.

California also saw a single-day peak in the statewide death toll as of Wednesday night, when 101 new deaths were reported that day for a total of 889 fatalities, according to the Los Angeles Times tracker, which reports data from health providers sooner than public officials.
...
As L.A. remains the epicenter of the outbreak in California, Mayor Eric Garcetti has told CNN the city will likely not host large public gatherings — from concerts to Dodgers games — until 2021.

Widely available testing or a vaccine would have to be available before the city can essentially reopen, he said.
...

 

[otto]

With the coronavirus quickly becoming a new normal, home gardening is taking off, as more and more Americans start to grow their own fruits and vegetables. But in Michigan, many stores have been barred from selling seeds, soils, plants, and other gardening supplies.

Michigan Bans Many Stores From Selling Seeds, Home Gardening Supplies, Calls Them “Not Necessary”

That's funny! Short sighted as well. One need only open the newspaper to see that gov'ts are warning that food supplies could be effected.

 

[tresir2012]

"Unemployment benefits: 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the last four weeks - CNN" Unemployment benefits: 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the last four weeks - CNN

22 million unemployed = 13.5%

 

[Reasonable & Just]

I agree, Even not counting the economic impact, think of all the sadness of not going out until next year. I already don't go out, I see no reason to do take out because by the time I get home the food is cold, and I sit and eat it in a silent house. A vaccine will not be found for months, if not years. And at 71, I don't have enough time left in my life to look that far ahead. If things are not allowed to be opened, I don't need to sit and take up oxygen just to say I'm alive.

Yes, if people are depressed, we're suppose to talk with health providers - and I can't think of anything more depressing than talking to a face on a screen about how I am alone and sad, and they reply back with meaningless words. No human interaction, no feeling that they even care more than getting paid for a virtual visit.

MOO

This post is both beautiful and painful to read. I'm so sorry that my fellow humans are suffering in so many different ways.

 

[tresir2012]

L.A. County reports 55 more people have died from COVID-19, marking another single-day high in deaths

Los Angeles County health officials reported Thursday that another 55 COVID-19 patients have died, marking the third day in a row the county has seen a single-day high in fatalities.

California also saw a single-day peak in the statewide death toll as of Wednesday night, when 101 new deaths were reported that day for a total of 889 fatalities, according to the Los Angeles Times tracker, which reports data from health providers sooner than public officials.
...
As L.A. remains the epicenter of the outbreak in California, Mayor Eric Garcetti has told CNN the city will likely not host large public gatherings — from concerts to Dodgers games — until 2021.

Widely available testing or a vaccine would have to be available before the city can essentially reopen, he said.
...

They may never find a vaccine. They have been looking for a cure for the common cold (which is a coronavirus) for years and have not been successful.

Info in this link about vaccine and drug trials.

"Coronavirus: Are we getting closer to a vaccine or drug? - BBC News" Are we getting closer to a coronavirus vaccine or drug?

 

[10ofRods]

The kids have already been with the family 24/7 during lockdown so won't be contagious as 14 days has gone by right? Can the kids get it a second time though?

That's not the issue.

The issue is that somewhere, in that group of thousands (millions) of kids, some kid will get a new case. Maybe their mom is a nurse (maybe their mom is a nurse who is being denied use of a mask). Maybe their dad runs a factory. People are going to work sick across all open sectors. So if we opened May 1, you can see what would happen.

Because kids are asymptomatic, thousands of parents will get CV from their kids when the schools reopen. The Netherlands has had an outbreak similar to most of the US outside NY/NJ - and they have study showing that only 3% of the general population has antibodies. So while they contained the virus well enough, 97% of the citizens are at risk.

We don't know that rate for the US, but I'm guessing California is about the same as The Netherlands.

What about just taking the temperature of the visitor? High temperature then you cannot visit that day. That is how they have been screening some health workers. Does that work?

No. That doesn't work and merely gets rid of the most virulent people. Tons of people without fevers are shedding virus all over the place. In fact, the peak of shedding may in fact be right before the fever sets in.

And we do not know how long after the fever subsides that the virus is still shedding.

Fever checking only gets rid of super-spreaders. Keep in mind that the asymptomatic people are 40-80% of the total, depending on place and what study you read (extremely significant to find out - but 40% is still quite high).

Why didn’t one of them stay home with that toddler!

Because most humans are only rational on occasion.

We are more creatures of habit than of reason.

WSers are on a far end of a continuum, being one of the most reasonable groups of people discussing CoVid (that I can find).

Why did the woman let her toddler run around sucking things? is the question that's more to the point for me.

I guess since measles, mumps, rubella, polio, whooping cough and even small pox was still around when I was raised, all of our parents would have jointly and collectively put a kabash to "toddler running around in store" and especially "mouth on things in the store."

This was a brand new virus, thus we did not have any tests at the start of this crisis. It took awhile to develop them.

There are other factors too. The machines needed to run the test are DNA sequencers (PCR machines; thermal sequencers). They cost about $100,000-$500,000+. All large universities and hospitals have them, all regional labs have them. But, they've never needed to test this many people using PCR - ever - in history. So no one was prepared with the machines.

Apparently they aren't that hard to make and universities do train medical engineers and computer scientists to improve on them and make them. But not every place has an equal number of them.

You can take all the swabs you want, but until you have enough machines to not have a backlog, the results are slow (that's why those new "instant tests" that apparently don't require a PCR are so important - they're being tested). In California, it's about a 4-5 day wait to get results for the mildly/moderately symptomatic. At one point, until we built more PCR machines and worked out an agreement with regional labs about testing, we had a backlog of 10's of thousands of tests.

We still do not have enough PCR capacity to increase testing, because as you can see, patients are already waiting (we need to know whether a patient has CV before treating or admitting them).

 

[Reasonable & Just]

Interested to see how it all works out.
San Francisco Ramps Up Back-To-Basics Contact Tracing To Stop COVID-19

 

[lonetraveler]

Mr. Bravo is applying my hair glaze tomorrow. I'll report backI pick up my color at 11 a.m. call when I pull in and they will bring all needed items out to my car.

I not only colored my hair today but I also trimmed about 2 inches off the ends. Crazy I know.

 

[NuttMegg]

Before we reopen our schools too fast and say kids are not going to die from the virus, consider below. If the children are carriers, and the grandparents die, who will care for these kids? It's complicated.

More than 2.6 million children live in homes where grandparents are the householders and are responsible for them. Of these, almost 1 million children have no parents present in the home.

More than 2.5 million grandparents are the householders and are responsible for their grandchildren living with them.

Source: AARP

In addition, some ethnic groups value a home life with extended family members present, from babies through great grandparents under one roof. Whether or not the older folk are the principal caretakers, they are there, proudly and lovingly, with their family and will be exposed to whatever viruses the children bring home. I don't see how we can accept a system where school children go untested en masse, given the effect that could have on all other age groups.

 

[SandyQLS]

‘Herd immunity’ without a vaccine could mean 840,000 coronavirus deaths in California – Daily News
...
Amid Gov. Gavin Newsom’s scenario of a post-sheltering world, there are two chilling words: herd immunity.

Tomorrow’s tableau — waiters with masks, distant desks, split-shift schools — will be the new normal, he told reporters in his Tuesday press briefing, “at least until we have herd immunity.”
...
What does “herd immunity” look like in the age of COVID-19? Without a vaccine, about 28 million infected Californians.

Based on current estimates, about 5 percent of infected people — or roughly 1.4 million Californians — would get severely ill. Of these, 840,000 could die, although there’s hope of holding that number down.
...
As if in synchrony, on Tuesday scientists at Harvard’s prestigious Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health also conceded the inevitability of continued infections.

In a set of mathematical models published in the journal Science, they proposed a strategy of intermittent restrictions that would help us approach herd immunity as slowly as possible, so hospitals aren’t overwhelmed.

Rather than hiding from the virus, a goal is to spread out the number of infections at any one time, so fewer people die, they concluded.
...
To reach herd immunity, “there’s no light switch here” of all-or-nothing restrictions, said Newsom. “It’s more like a dimmer … toggling back and forth.”

So what is he saying? He is keeping all these other businesses shuttered? No haircuts, no nail salon, no gym, no movie theater, no public library, no cafes, no churches, no Disneyland, etc.? People have been very cooperative so far, but they won't put up with the current situation forever. The businesses that pay taxes are already gutted and then there is all the sales tax revenue they generate. And I doubt the Gov has as much power as he assumes. People are already fed up.

 

[tresir2012]

That's not the issue.

The issue is that somewhere, in that group of thousands (millions) of kids, some kid will get a new case. Maybe their mom is a nurse (maybe their mom is a nurse who is being denied use of a mask). Maybe their dad runs a factory. People are going to work sick across all open sectors. So if we opened May 1, you can see what would happen.

Because kids are asymptomatic, thousands of parents will get CV from their kids when the schools reopen. The Netherlands has had an outbreak similar to most of the US outside NY/NJ - and they have study showing that only 3% of the general population has antibodies. So while they contained the virus well enough, 97% of the citizens are at risk.

We don't know that rate for the US, but I'm guessing California is about the same as The Netherlands.



No. That doesn't work and merely gets rid of the most virulent people. Tons of people without fevers are shedding virus all over the place. In fact, the peak of shedding may in fact be right before the fever sets in.

And we do not know how long after the fever subsides that the virus is still shedding.

Fever checking only gets rid of super-spreaders. Keep in mind that the asymptomatic people are 40-80% of the total, depending on place and what study you read (extremely significant to find out - but 40% is still quite high).




Because most humans are only rational on occasion.

We are more creatures of habit than of reason.

WSers are on a far end of a continuum, being one of the most reasonable groups of people discussing CoVid (that I can find).

Why did the woman let her toddler run around sucking things? is the question that's more to the point for me.

I guess since measles, mumps, rubella, polio, whooping cough and even small pox was still around when I was raised, all of our parents would have jointly and collectively put a kabash to "toddler running around in store" and especially "mouth on things in the store."



There are other factors too. The machines needed to run the test are DNA sequencers (PCR machines; thermal sequencers). They cost about $100,000-$500,000+. All large universities and hospitals have them, all regional labs have them. But, they've never needed to test this many people using PCR - ever - in history. So no one was prepared with the machines.

Apparently they aren't that hard to make and universities do train medical engineers and computer scientists to improve on them and make them. But not every place has an equal number of them.

You can take all the swabs you want, but until you have enough machines to not have a backlog, the results are slow (that's why those new "instant tests" that apparently don't require a PCR are so important - they're being tested). In California, it's about a 4-5 day wait to get results for the mildly/moderately symptomatic. At one point, until we built more PCR machines and worked out an agreement with regional labs about testing, we had a backlog of 10's of thousands of tests.

We still do not have enough PCR capacity to increase testing, because as you can see, patients are already waiting (we need to know whether a patient has CV before treating or admitting them).

You cannot lock people and kids up forever. There is no vaccine or drugs for this and herd immunity will be the way forward. The delay is only so the health services and other services can cope with it. Toddlers have always eaten dirt and put stuff in their mouths. That is how they build up resistance to germs. My opinion is that most of the kids have already caught and got over it between Jan and March.

 

[Trino]

Before we reopen our schools too fast and say kids are not going to die from the virus, consider below. If the children are carriers, and the grandparents die, who will care for these kids? It's complicated.

More than 2.6 million children live in homes where grandparents are the householders and are responsible for them. Of these, almost 1 million children have no parents present in the home.

More than 2.5 million grandparents are the householders and are responsible for their grandchildren living with them.

Source: AARP

In addition, some ethnic groups value a home life with extended family members present, from babies through great grandparents under one roof. Whether or not the older folk are the principal caretakers, they are there, proudly and lovingly, with their family and will be exposed to whatever viruses the children bring home. I don't see how we can accept a system where school children go untested en masse, given the effect that could have on all other age groups.

Definitely culture plays into this. Hmong, Native American... could go on. Grandparents are valued as persons and as providers for children. On my street - mostly Caucasian - there are two multi-generational families.

 

[pocketaccent]

(live)

 

[Reasonable & Just]

.

 

[tresir2012]

So if and when we do reopen are we going to restrict entry from "herd immunity" countries?

 

[oceanblueeyes]

With the coronavirus quickly becoming a new normal, home gardening is taking off, as more and more Americans start to grow their own fruits and vegetables. But in Michigan, many stores have been barred from selling seeds, soils, plants, and other gardening supplies.

Michigan Bans Many Stores From Selling Seeds, Home Gardening Supplies, Calls Them “Not Necessary”

(I posted this in the gardening thread too.)

Imo, banning anyone from buying seeds, or vegetable or fruit plants is way over the top especially now. Since when is food not essential?

Is the same governor that allows canoes, but people can't take their boat out if it has a motor? If so, much of those ban demands make no logical sense whatsoever when someone is away from everyone when doing so whether in a canoe or a motorized boat. It sounds like an abuse of power, and grandstanding imo.

If we have a food shortage then more, and more citizens will need, and will plant food gardens.

Since retiring my hubby, and I always plant a garden. This year is no different. Thank goodness our governor is not preventing it nor should any governor imo.

We planted our garden on Good Friday although iirc the farmer's almanac says the best planting time is April 22nd thru the 24th.

Every year we plant enough so we will be able to share it with our neighbors, and family. This year we did plant a little more than usual.

Jmho

 

[Really?]

I don't believe many people are going to want to be breathing the recirculated air on airplanes until this pandemic is more under control. Events for this summer have been cancelled. I don't know how Vegas Casinos could set up and manage social distancing.

Coronavirus travel: Bailed-out airlines seek to cut flights to cities

JMO

Masks and gloves....most games if not all are hand gestures or chip laying, right?

 

[NuttMegg]

Before we reopen our schools too fast and say kids are not going to die from the virus, consider below. If the children are carriers, and the grandparents die, who will care for these kids? It's complicated.

More than 2.6 million children live in homes where grandparents are the householders and are responsible for them. Of these, almost 1 million children have no parents present in the home.

More than 2.5 million grandparents are the householders and are responsible for their grandchildren living with them.

Source: AARP

Definitely culture plays into this. Hmong, Native American... could go on. Grandparents are valued as persons and as providers for children. On my street - mostly Caucasian - there are two multi-generational families.

It's funny...my siblings sometimes gripe when an adult kid is still living at home. But I myself live in a nearly 100% Hispanic neighborhood, and no one would think of griping that odds and ends of family members are in the house. It just wouldn't occur to anyone. A few more plates on the table and smiles all around. We can't accept a COVID solution that penalizes or sacrifices large extended families.