Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #63

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How many confirmed cases are there in your area?

There have been more than 310,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK and more than 43,000 people have died, government figures show.

However, these numbers only include people who have been tested, and the total number of deaths relating to coronavirus is likely to be higher.

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Latest figures from the Office For National Statistics (ONS) show that the weekly number of recorded deaths has returned to close to normal levels for the time of year.

Death certificates mentioning the virus suggest there had been more than 53,000 deaths by 12 June, according to ONS figures.

When looking at deaths over and above the expected number for this time of year, the toll rises to more than 65,000 by the same date.

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Some of these deaths are likely to include people with undiagnosed coronavirus or those who died as an indirect result of the pandemic.

Coronavirus accounted for about 11% of all deaths in the UK in the week to 12 June, according to death registration data - a drop from 14% the previous week.

In the week to 17 April, when deaths from the virus reached their peak, this figure was just under 40%.

Continued at link.
 
From the above link:
upload_2020-6-28_1-51-0.jpeg
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Scotland 'could be Covid-free by end of summer'



Coronavirus cases may be linked to brain complications, study finds

“The preliminary study, billed as the first nationwide survey of the neurological complications of the disease, was published in The Lancet Psychiatry this week.

Over the course of three weeks in April, researchers surveyed 153 hospitalized patients in the U.K. who had both a new confirmed or probable COVID-19 diagnosis and a new neurological or psychiatric diagnosis.

Researchers found that, among the 125 patients with complete medical records, 57 had a stroke caused by a blood clot in the brain and 39 had an altered mental state. Among the patients with an altered mental state, 10 of the patients had developed psychosis – a "break with reality" – and seven had encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain.“

[...]

“"While we’ve learnt over the past few months that hospitalized COVID-19 patients have a higher risk of suffering ischemic strokes, the current study adds to that picture by also showing neuropsychiatric disorders in hospitalized COVID-19 patients," Jahromi said.“

(more at link)

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'Shocking, Heartbreaking' Coronavirus Outbreak In Calif. Prison Alarms Health Experts

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Nick Watney shares 'scary' COVID story and thoughts about device that detected his illness

“Watney spoke for the first time publicly about his illness on a podcast hosted by WHOOP, the company that makes the health-monitoring devices that the PGA Tour is now widely using to potentially help in the diagnosis of other players with COVID-19.”

[...]

“On June 22, WHOOP released findings of a study in collaboration with CQUniversity in Australia that its device’s algorithm has been shown to detect 20 percent of COVID-19 illnesses in the two days prior to the onset of symptoms. The study is awaiting peer review. WHOOP says the PGA Tour has purchased more than 1,000 of its devices and the company began working with larger groups of players at this week’s Travelers Championship.“
 
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No, not “this India“ (Delhi). :) Actually Kerala is at the other end of India, 2637 km or 1640 miles away from Delhi. That’s almost the distance from NYC to Denver, Colorado. What happens with the coronavirus in Kerala can’t be compared to Delhi any more than what happens in New York State is comparable to Colorado or any other state in the U.S. So at the moment, Kerala is doing much better than Delhi far to the north. And of course, that can change as it has here among the states in the U.S.

The link cited earlier explains Kerala’s success:
Kerala, which is a communist state, has invested in robust public health and education systems. It also has the highest literacy rate (over 92%) of any Indian state and, as of 2016, the highest life expectancy rate of about 75 years of age. All of these factors contribute to creating a population that understands the deadly nature of this virus — and one that has great trust in its leaders.

A key authority in the effort to fight the coronavirus has been the health minister of Kerala, KK Shailaja, also known as Shailaja Teacher or the "coronavirus slayer." She joins a list of female leaders around the world who have gained respect for their willingness to listen and take action early and aggressively.

The Indian state that got its Covid-19 response right (opinion) - CNN
 
The younger generation's infection rate is what will save the world. Once these kids get sick and recover and say "my life was <blank> for THIS???" we will be back to our regular programming.

Teachers, high school and middle school students in North Carolina will be required to wear a mask. Elementary? Nope. How's that going to work with kids of various ages in the same household? Who put this idea together?

I predict it will take the coronavirus death of a child before someone finally says we're going to backtrack to last April and close everything down.

"North Carolina students and teachers will be required to wear face masks as part of Governor Roy Cooper's executive order that mandates masks in public areas to help prevent the spread of COVID-19..."
"Under the mandate, masks will be required for all teachers and adult staff members in schools. Masks will also be required for all middle and high school students. Face masks are not required for elementary students but they are strongly encouraged, if appropriate."
How North Carolina schools will be affected by the mandatory face mask order
 
It seems that in our state of Victoria, returning overseas travellers who refuse to be swabbed are going to be kept in hotel quarantine for an additional 10 days .... so that is 24 days in hotel quarantine.

Our state of New South Wales has already started doing this.

Apparently, we cannot legally force them to allow a swab but we can legally require a quarantine period recommended by govt medical authorities.

Cigarette lighter, car-pooling may be cause of hotel quarantine staff outbreak as Victoria records 49 new cases
 
Weekly UK deaths and increase % from previous week. 1st May had the highest number of weekly deaths at a daily average of 1,128.
Date deaths % inc per week
1 May 7900 40
8 May 3739 14
15May 2857 9
22May 2395 7
29May 1768 5
5 Jun 2100 5.5
12Jun 1520 3.7
19Jun 974 2.3
26Jun 953 2.2
 
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The younger generation's infection rate is what will save the world. Once these kids get sick and recover and say "my life was <blank> for THIS???" we will be back to our regular programming.
Here in the UK at least 40,000 kids will relate it to it being when they lost a beloved family relative who died before their time.
 
Even if we had started earlier, at some point we had to reopen so wouldn't it just then start at that point, especially as we know it was in both UK and US as early as December?

I think it depends what you do during that time.

If some countries had gone into lockdown a week or two earlier, but still spent resources ensuring hospital supplies, and working on producing tests, and contact tracing, and developing a vaccine, then the initial peak would have been lower, and you'd be in a better position earlier to move into the 'mopping up' stage.

Yes, you'd still have the risk of isolated outbreaks that would need to be 'mopped up', and you have decisions to make about incoming and outgoing international traffic and mopping up small outbreaks that crop up due to incoming traffic.

Surely it would cost less money in the long run, and lives. So I do think it would have been worthwhile. That's part of the reason why it's been so devastating: because it was new and we were unprepared. We have so many more things in place now that we didn't have back in February/March (in the UK and other countries that have been on a similar Covid-19 timetable).

When it first 'started' in the UK (meaning when we noticed it starting) we were only able to test a small number of hospital patients. Now we're in a position where we can test 100,000+ a day, and anyone with possible symptoms can request a test. So if we could have reached this position without having such a high first peak, I don't see a downside to that.
 
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The younger generation's infection rate is what will save the world. Once these kids get sick and recover and say "my life was <blank> for THIS???" we will be back to our regular programming.

It's possible that we aren't going to get herd immunity, which is why keeping the spread down while vaccines are developed is so important. The peer reviewed study in Nature this week indicates that there may be too many people who don't develop antibodies, and that antibody levels decrease too quickly.

Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections | Nature Medicine

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptomatic-covid-19-1.5629172
 
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It's possible that we aren't going to get herd immunity, which is why keeping the spread down while vaccines are developed is so important. The peer reviewed study in Nature this week suggests that there may be too many people who don't develop antibodies.

Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections | Nature Medicine

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptomatic-covid-19-1.5629172

Not to mention that herd immunity will take - conservatively - at least 43% saturation.

So far in the US there has been 2,560,000 cases that we know of. The US would need 141,126,000 cases to achieve that conservative herd immunity figure. At the moment, the US is at not quite 2% of that required level.
(If I've done my sums right.)


According to mathematical modelling from the University of Nottingham and University of Stockholm, “when differences in age and social activity are incorporated in the model, the herd immunity level reduces from 60 per cent to 43 per cent.”
Herd immunity to Covid-19 could be achieved with fewer exposures
 
I can attest that someone I personally know tested positive for Covid and quarantined for 3 wks at home after being tested. Felt blah and had symptoms but not awful enough for the hospital. Got tested for antibodies within weeks and there are none. Now doctors are left to wonder: was it a false positive (explaining lack of horrendous symptoms) or is there no immunity immediately after recovery in some people? So so much we do not know or understand yet. Learning takes patience. Which is why for the life of me, I cannot fathom this shrugging reaction I see around me and an impatience to get back to normalcy. Sure, I’d love my 2019 life back too! 2020 is a disaster! But surely we can take a collective breath for the sake of those lost/those we are trying to save and work together? I won’t sneeze boogers on you if you won’t sneeze boogers on me (wear a bleepin mask). I’ll sacrifice my nights at the theater and wear a mask so I don’t infect your kid who will infect your grandmother. Will you wear a mask so I can go to the store more safely? Businesses are thinking outside the box to open differently. Outdoor dining, outdoor fitness classes, inflatable screens outside for movie time, etc. It’s different. Different is better than dead. That’s my opinion.
It's possible that we aren't going to get herd immunity, which is why keeping the spread down while vaccines are developed is so important. The peer reviewed study in Nature this week indicates that there may be too many people who don't develop antibodies, and that antibody levels decrease too quickly.

Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections | Nature Medicine

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptomatic-covid-19-1.5629172
 
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