Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #79

[Simply Southern]

Worldometer is pretty good with my country's data (yes, we have our own dashboards here).

Perhaps the issue with the US is the incomplete reporting, and it affects dashboards everywhere.
AZDHS is a perfect example. 4-7 day lag in accurate figures, no active cases category.

How would WM volunteers know the "accurate" number of cases, if a states doesn't? The site clearly states it uses algorithm, which mean "best guess".

If you click on the last field in the ss for the US states it will take you to the source used for data. The recovered is coming from Hospital Associations State website. I personally checked each state and can confirm. The hospital website site reports data of recovered/discharged Covid patients. States had no record of total recovered, which would come from contact tracing, which is very inconsistent by state. This is the reason recovered is so low in many states.

Coming from a business health background, I'm very conscientious to confirm sources for information to make informed decisions. Algorithm are computer function designed to make projections, not real time data. Also, if you click on the state source for US states, sometimes WM uses the state site and other times not. Its inconsistent. I spend many hours early on, created my own spreadsheet comparison of WM by each state and the source WM used. It was the inconsistency of WM and state number discussions that prompted me to look in depth at WM data collection and sources.

WM has some value in my opinion, but not a source I would reference in a debate.

IMO

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Goodluck South Australia. Hope all goes well XX

On another note, as of this Thursday my state's borders will be open to NSW, which means we will then be open to all other states except Victoria. We are gradually getting there. Very slowly, and hoping like all heck that things go well.

 

[JerseyGirl]

CDC abruptly removes guidance about airborne coronavirus transmission, says update 'was posted in error'

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention abruptly reverted to its previous guidance about how coronavirus is transmitted, removing language about airborne transmission it had posted just days earlier.

"A draft version of proposed changes to these recommendations was posted in error to the agency's official website. CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Once this process has been completed, the update language will be posted," a CDC spokesman said in a response email.

The guidance pertained to the way the novel coronavirus is spread. While it's known it can spread through droplets among people standing less than 6 feet apart, research has continued to explore how the virus suspends in aerosolized particles in the air and transmitted to people more than 6 feet away.

The CDC transmission guidance acknowledging airborne transmission had been quietly posted on Friday, according to the agency's website. CNN was first to report the change on Sunday. The CDC responded just before noon on Monday to say it was reverting to the previous guidance.

 

[JerseyGirl]

NJIT Finds Coronavirus In Sewage As Entire Dorm Quarantined

Since reopening its campus earlier this month, New Jersey Institute of Technology in Newark has been running weekly tests on wastewater samples from each of its occupied dorm buildings.

On Wednesday, NJIT learned that sewage from one of its dorms, Cypress Hall, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. About 300 students living in the building were immediately quarantined.

 

[badgersmythe]

Boris Johnson announces new measures to tackle spread of coronavirus


Boris Johnson announces new measures to tackle spread of coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

 

[SouthAussie]

CDC abruptly reverts to previous language about how coronavirus is transmitted, says it 'was posted in error' - CNN

I don't get what all the fuss is about, and why the CDC keeps changing its information.

Physics says that heavier droplets will fall to the ground more quickly, lighter droplets will fall more slowly, lighter droplets when shot out with force (sneeze, cough, singing) are bound to travel further. Doesn't common sense say that would be the case?

IMO


However, there have been several documented instances of infections that don’t fit with droplet or surface spread because they happened even when people maintained their distance. Perhaps the most famous example is the choir rehearsal outside of Seattle, Washington, a superspreader event where 52 out of 61 people were infected during a two-and-half-hour practice. What’s notable about this case is that the singers maintained distance from each other and used plenty of hand sanitizer, per safety guidance at the time. Also, the infected person was presymptomatic, so they weren’t coughing or sneezing and projecting droplets further. Despite all this, one person was still able to infect 52 others.
The Most Likely Way You’ll Get Infected With Covid-19

(This is from the very informative article that Footwarrior posted earlier)

 

[SouthAussie]

Boris Johnson announces new measures to tackle spread of coronavirus


Boris Johnson announces new measures to tackle spread of coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

Boris is cracking down, finally. He has to do something strong to stop this escalating spread. imo

From your linked article:


The Prime Minister said that the police will now have the 'option to draw on military support where required' as he announced fines for breaking the rule of six will be doubled to £200.

Mr Johnson said the UK is at a 'perilous turning point' in the fight against the virus as he imposed a 10pm curfew on all restaurants, bars and pubs across the country from Thursday with the hospitality sector also being restricted to table service only.

A requirement to wear face coverings will be extended to include retail workers and customers in indoor hospitality settings, except for when they are seated at a table to eat or drink.

Mr Johnson said that 'unless we palpably make progress' in the coming weeks then the measures announced this lunchtime 'will remain in place for perhaps six months' - comments which appear to effectively kill off any hopes of a normal Christmas.

 

[LadyL]

hmm ...

Majority of Canadians support wearing masks during COVID-19, oppose protests: poll

 

[SouthAussie]

Goodluck South Australia. Hope all goes well XX

Thanks, Tootsie.

I see your state had a memorable day today. No community transmission at all - first time since 3rd July. You guys have done a fantastic job of contact tracing!

'Incredibly pleased': NSW reaches significant coronavirus milestone

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Covid in Scotland: Nationwide visiting ban & pub curfew - BBC News

Summary: What did Nicola Sturgeon announce?

A ban on people from different households meeting in homes is to be imposed across Scotland, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced.

The measure is already in place in Glasgow and some neighbouring areas.

But Ms Sturgeon said it would be rolled out across Scotland from Wednesday in a bid to get the virus under control again before winter.

She also confirmed that Scotland would be following England in imposing a 10pm curfew on pubs and restaurants.

Indoor and outdoor gatherings in Scotland were restricted to six people from two households just two weeks ago - although children did not count towards the total

There will be exceptions to the new rules for those living alone, or alone with children, who form extended households.

The rules will also not apply to couples who do not live together, or to tradespeople or for the provision of informal childcare - such as grandparents.

 

[CoolJ]

Can anyone point me to the "Science" that everyone keeps citing without actually citing, with regards to the safety and efficacy of mask wearing on a large scale?

 

[MrX]

Worldometer just compiles the data, they don't create it.

Active cases = total cases minus deaths minus recoveries.

The problem is compiling the data about recoveries.

"Recoveries = this statistic is highly imperfect, because reporting can be missing, incomplete, incorrect, based on different definitions, or dated (or a combination of all of these) for many governments, both at the local and national level, sometimes with differences between states within the same country or counties within the same state."
About Worldometer COVID-19 data - Worldometer

If the patient is in hospital, or otherwise being closely monitored, they are deemed recovered if they test negative twice.

But if people are just tested positive and then sent home, there's no hard data about recoveries.

Some states/countries assume a case has recovered if a) the person has not died and b) three or more weeks has passed.

I would suggest Arizona is no longer keeping up these statistics at all. So the data that AZ sends out to agencies that compile the data, implies that most of the people who have tested positive have never recovered.

I believe you are correct - AZ does not report recovered cases. My concern with the original post of that data was that, this far into the pandemic, it should have been obvious that the active case number was wrong. I am interested to see what our Business Dashboard looks like when it is updated Thursday. It is based on actual events from week ending 12 days prior, so it will be an accurate representation of the facts, without being skewed by antigen data. It should reflect any increases from the new college year.

 

[doublestop]

Can anyone point me to the "Science" that everyone keeps citing without actually citing, with regards to the safety and efficacy of mask wearing on a large scale?

This is from 2013, so before the politicalization of masks. Understanding the Impact of Face Mask Usage Through Epidemic Simulation of Large Social Networks

 

[musicaljoke]

Can anyone point me to the "Science" that everyone keeps citing without actually citing, with regards to the safety and efficacy of mask wearing on a large scale?

Are you familiar with "Google Scholar"? If you seach google scholar, you will find numerous peer reviewed studies from several journals. Here's just one of many,

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic - ScienceDirect

Abstract
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for assessing the community-wide impact of mask use by the general, asymptomatic public, a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious.

Model simulations, using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington, suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths.

Moreover, mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness (as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked) and coverage rate (as a fraction of the general population), while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) is highly nonlinear, indicating masks could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures.

Notably, masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic transmission. Hypothetical mask adoption scenarios, for Washington and New York state, suggest that immediate near universal (80%) adoption of moderately (50%) effective masks could prevent on the order of 17–45% of projected deaths over two months in New York, while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34–58%, absent other changes in epidemic dynamics.

Even very weak masks (20% effective) can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing: In Washington, where baseline transmission is much less intense, 80% adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24–65% (and peak deaths 15–69%), compared to 2–9% mortality reduction in New York (peak death reduction 9–18%).

Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic. The community-wide benefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical practices (such as social-distancing), and when adoption is nearly universal (nation-wide) and compliance is high.

 

[MsArk]

CDC abruptly removes guidance about airborne coronavirus transmission, says update 'was posted in error'

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention abruptly reverted to its previous guidance about how coronavirus is transmitted, removing language about airborne transmission it had posted just days earlier.

"A draft version of proposed changes to these recommendations was posted in error to the agency's official website. CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Once this process has been completed, the update language will be posted," a CDC spokesman said in a response email.

The guidance pertained to the way the novel coronavirus is spread. While it's known it can spread through droplets among people standing less than 6 feet apart, research has continued to explore how the virus suspends in aerosolized particles in the air and transmitted to people more than 6 feet away.

The CDC transmission guidance acknowledging airborne transmission had been quietly posted on Friday, according to the agency's website. CNN was first to report the change on Sunday. The CDC responded just before noon on Monday to say it was reverting to the previous guidance.

Following CDC recommendations is a recipe for whiplash.

 

[Satchie]

Can anyone point me to the "Science" that everyone keeps citing without actually citing, with regards to the safety and efficacy of mask wearing on a large scale?

This one is comprehensive. Mask usage tests have had varying postive results in terms of the reduction of spread, because conditions vary widely, but they do reduce spread. Even if they only reduce spread by 30% (a low number), that has a profound effect on calming the expotential growth of the virus.
Can Masks Save Us From More Lockdowns? Here's What The Science Says

ETA: There are links within the article to specific studies.

 

[Yvettea]

I cannot access page #19 of this discussion. The same thing happened yesterday with pages #13 and #14. Accessing this thread has been an ongoing problem but I could find a work around in the past.

I will report this post to alert a moderator.

 

[JudgeJoe]

I’ve now come to the conclusion that no one at CDC has ever had kids or been around kids. One suggestion deemed to be low-risk is:

“Doing a Halloween scavenger hunt where children are given lists of Halloween-themed things to look for while they walk outdoors from house to house admiring Halloween decorations at a distance.”

Good grief, is this the best they got? Don’t they know halloween is all about the CANDY?!!!

Better to wear latex gloves & just throw it from the front porch. Maybe in little ziplock baggies.

Or just skip the whole dang thing & go directly to Christmas. Just say’n.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[Lilibet]

Following CDC recommendations is a recipe for whiplash.

You almost made me laugh, but how sad it is that we can no longer have confidence in the CDC.

 

[Lilibet]

Covid in Scotland: Nationwide visiting ban & pub curfew - BBC News

Summary: What did Nicola Sturgeon announce?

A ban on people from different households meeting in homes is to be imposed across Scotland, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced.

The measure is already in place in Glasgow and some neighbouring areas.

But Ms Sturgeon said it would be rolled out across Scotland from Wednesday in a bid to get the virus under control again before winter.

She also confirmed that Scotland would be following England in imposing a 10pm curfew on pubs and restaurants.

Indoor and outdoor gatherings in Scotland were restricted to six people from two households just two weeks ago - although children did not count towards the total

There will be exceptions to the new rules for those living alone, or alone with children, who form extended households.

The rules will also not apply to couples who do not live together, or to tradespeople or for the provision of informal childcare - such as grandparents.

BBM

Can I please use my Scottish ancestry to move to Scotland? These measures make so much sense! And they would never fly here in the U.S. unfortunately. Even friends of mine who are generally responsible don’t seem to get the point that having or being a visitor is really risky. But if a ban was imposed they would comply.
JMO