This German article says that police believes an accident happened and that other scenarios can likely be excluded.
Quickly translated, sorry for any mistakes:
Liams brother will return to Hamburg this week to continue with the search. Many outside the family involved with the search believe it would be a wonder finding Liam alive as there so far has only been one sign of life which was on the day of his disappearance.
Police have checked many sightings (20 since 10th February). Police says not all of them were to the best knowledge and belief. The female tipsters from Buxtehude had a history of complaining to the police or giving leads to police exceptionally often. Some leads were vague, some were odd.
Often, possible witnesses accounts came in too late to check surveillance cameras. There has never been a hot lead. Searches with mantrailers, especially in the Buxtehude area, did not provide any reliable information. That one of the dogs picked up a scent in Buxtehude over a small distance may simply have been a mistake made by the dog, investigators said.
Other investigations petered out. In the first days of the search, the police had three theories: The 29-year-old has amnesia, he has deliberately disappeared or he had an accident. Two assumptions are largely off the table. An amnesia, so medical specialists who were called in said, was conceivable, but would not last so long. In addition, as the police are sure, the Scot, who has no contacts in Germany and does not speak German, would have been noticed somewhere.
Police also does not believe the postie from the historic Inverness, a city of about 50,000 inhabitants on the northeast coast of Scotland, just disappeared to start a new life. Not conspicuously much had been withdrawn from the Scots private accounts prior to the trip to Germany - although he has the money for it in the bank. Likewise the motive is missing.
We do not have anything to get going at the moment", says the police, who said the recent distribution of 300,000 leaflets with the help of German Postal Service has not given any leads. The image of the Scot had previously been shown on digital billboards in public transport. The leaflets brought hints - but none of them was really useful. For example, a man had stated that he had recognized Liam Colgan based on the tip of his nose - but he could not see more because of the hood. The incoming tips, according to the police, have become more and more unclear in the course of time.
The only real sign of life is still the recording from a surveillance camera at Gruner & Jahr at the Michelwiese. It shows the Scotsman at 2:20 am on the night of Saturday, February 10th. About 50 minutes earlier, his disappearance from the pub "Hamborger Veermaster" on the Reeperbahn, where he was celebrating his brother's bachelor party with friends, was noticed. The pictures show a completely drunk, almost disoriented man. A witness who reported to the police wants to have helped the 29-year-old nearby to get back on his feet after he fell.
Images taken by another camera near the St. Michaels church could also show Liam, but clearly he is not recognizable.
https://www.abendblatt.de/hamburg/a...er-Schotte-Polizei-vermutet-ein-Unglueck.html