IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[otto]

IMO and with my personal experience of raising two children plus being very close to lots of other children (nieces, nephews, children of close friends) and with having worked with children from violent homes for over 20 years, no. Not every child threatens or attempts to run away from home at some point or another. I am sure it never occurred to my kids to run away from home. In fact, we talked about it and they couldn't understand why a child would want to run away. My kids loved being at home. Even if things weren't going their way (which was often) they would cope without wanting to leave. But I do not think it's necessarily a reflection of a "troubled" child. And, I don't think all children who do have more than their share of difficulties do think about running away from home.

I think that some children sometimes feel a little lost. Threatening to run away, not actually running away, is sometimes a way of asking for reassurances. It sounds like Lyric's grandmother gave Lyric the reassurances that she needed and that was the end of it. She was late coming home 3 days before she vanished and the family was on the phone with police when she walked in the front door.

I wondered if she met someone four days earlier when she was late returning home with her 11 year old cousin. I guess nothing panned out with the cousin ... no conversations with strangers that offered a lead. If the cell phone, computers and recent outtings make no connection with a pre-arranged meeting, then this looks more like a random crime of opportunity ... wrong place, wrong time.

 

[otto]

Sorry, I don't know how to post 2 quotes. What I was puzzled about was Dan's mum referring to 'here'. I can certainly see family members rallying around Heather with cleaning and child care.

I haven't gone back to listen to the interview, but I think it's quite possible that when she said the girls came to clean every day, maybe she paused and changed the subject because "here" did mean Evansdale. She quickly moved on to say that with her, the girls were perfectly happy, normal 8 and 10 year old girls that loved to play with doing hair, nail polish, make-up and computer games. That was the first I'd about Lyric's older brother ... I had assumed that she was the oldest.

Maybe it was a barb related to custody ... doing house cleaning with the maternal grandmother versus games with the paternal grandmother. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of very mixed emotions given what has happened. It would be impossible to not consider blame, self-directed or otherwise,

Link: http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-816543

 

[hambirg]

Can anybody tell me how late Lyric was in coming home the day she came home late?

 

[winterrose]

The time she was with her cousin and came home late was four days before and three days before was when Lyric said she wanted to run away. Hambirg, it was in a JVM video with parents talking about it. I believe July 17th.

 

[winterrose]

DM...
This had just happened probably four days before, that where she was supposed to go to, you know, a certain destination and then come back, and after a while she hadn`t come back. And they went to that destination and she wasn`t there. And so things got stirred up. My wife called me then and told me the same thing, that she`s missing. And I told her to call the cops.

And they went around to drive around some more, and all of a sudden my daughter`s calling me from my wife`s phone and saying, "Daddy." You know?

M. MORRISSEY: Yes. A week before this, Lyric and her other cousin, Tammy`s daughter, Kaylee (ph), who were in Green Briar, which is another division of Waterloo, and they went walking to the park. They were gone for an extended amount of time. We went looking for them at the park, and they weren`t there. So we called the police. They -- right when I called the police they came walking up to the house.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ijvm.01.html

 

[hambirg]

The time she was with her cousin and came home late was four days before and three days before was when Lyric said she wanted to run away. Hambirg, it was in a JVM video with parents talking about it. I believe July 17th.

Thanks, I'll have to look for the interview. I was wondering how late she actually was that day. . .1 hr, 3hrs, etc. if that was even told.

 

[otto]

Can anybody tell me how late Lyric was in coming home the day she came home late?

I don't think that it was very long ... which is one of the reasons I've wondered if it is normal for family to contact police so quickly when they haven't seen a child for 30 minutes or an hour and 30 minutes. Personally, I'm not sure whether to feel like a negligent parent for not having done this, or be thankful that I didn't think like that. I understand that it is quite normal for some to immediately contact police.

For a small town, it seems even more unusual to panic so early. I think of children in smaller towns as still being able to disappear for a few hours in the afternoon, show up for supper and nobody worries too much.

 

[otto]

DM...
This had just happened probably four days before, that where she was supposed to go to, you know, a certain destination and then come back, and after a while she hadn`t come back. And they went to that destination and she wasn`t there. And so things got stirred up. My wife called me then and told me the same thing, that she`s missing. And I told her to call the cops.

And they went around to drive around some more, and all of a sudden my daughter`s calling me from my wife`s phone and saying, "Daddy." You know?

M. MORRISSEY: Yes. A week before this, Lyric and her other cousin, Tammy`s daughter, Kaylee (ph), who were in Green Briar, which is another division of Waterloo, and they went walking to the park. They were gone for an extended amount of time. We went looking for them at the park, and they weren`t there. So we called the police. They -- right when I called the police they came walking up to the house.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ijvm.01.html

Did they say that they were at the park, or did the parents get more information about where they had been?

 

[winterrose]

I believe it was around four hours the day of their disappearance that they called LE.

Otto, Misty said they weren't at the park when she was with her cousin. I've wondered if someone that had seen Lyric at any time knew where she lived and watched. If the bikes were staged, it would have to be someone they knew, but we don't know if they were staged. SOs don't stage, they grab and go.

Iowa girl went missing days earlier - YouTube
This is the same day as the reporter talking to DM's mother, it's the same mini dress Misty has on in this video.

 

[otto]

My guess is that more than one person reported seeing a paddle boater around noon on July 13, but that paddle boater has not yet come forward. I think the FBI want to confirm whether anyone saw the girls at the lake and to have a good look at the person that doesn't want to come forward.

"FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault said Monday that investigators want to interview a person who was paddleboating on the lake around the time the girls disappeared. She said that person, who has not voluntarily come forward, could help investigators learn what happened to the girls but was not considered a suspect."

http://www.suntimes.com/news/nation...of-missing-iowa-girl-agrees-to-polygraph.html

 

[GrainneDhu]

Sorry, I don't know how to post 2 quotes. What I was puzzled about was Dan's mum referring to 'here'. I can certainly see family members rallying around Heather with cleaning and child care.

Well, she lives in Waterloo. It's a different city from Evansdale.

It makes sense to me, maybe because I grew up in the Iowa City area, which has two smaller cities squished up next to it: Coralville and University Heights.

I'm actually from University Heights but no one outside of Iowa City would even know where I was talking about. And yet, it is a distinct place from Iowa City. People in University Heights talk about "going over to Coralville" or "heading into Iowa City." There is a definite sense of "this is where we are and it is different from the other two places, even though they are actually located on maps."

Being from Waterloo conveys a different sense of place than being from Evansdale. Evansdale is more hick, working class but quiet, like a small town (according to a friend who lives there). Waterloo has much more of an urban vibe to it.

I don't know if I'm making sense or not.

 

[otto]

Well, she lives in Waterloo. It's a different city from Evansdale.

It makes sense to me, maybe because I grew up in the Iowa City area, which has two smaller cities squished up next to it: Coralville and University Heights.

I'm actually from University Heights but no one outside of Iowa City would even know where I was talking about. And yet, it is a distinct place from Iowa City. People in University Heights talk about "going over to Coralville" or "heading into Iowa City." There is a definite sense of "this is where we are and it is different from the other two places, even though they are actually located on maps."

Being from Waterloo conveys a different sense of place than being from Evansdale. Evansdale is more hick, working class but quiet, like a small town (according to a friend who lives there). Waterloo has much more of an urban vibe to it.

I don't know if I'm making sense or not.

Makes sense ... is Briar Hill or Heights Park part of Waterloo or a separate community and is there a lake? If so, is it possible that whatever happened at Briar Park was the perp's practice run for what happened at Meyers Lake?

One previous encounter at another park would have made it so much easier to abduct the children. Was it Monday, four days earlier, that she was late (police called)? Tuesday, three days earlier, she was so sad that she told her grandmother that she wanted to run away? All a perp had to do was plant the idea of going to Meyers Lake on Friday at noon ... for a "bull in a china shop" personality ... a dare, a challenge without full consideration of the consequences ... in my opinion.

 

[hambirg]

I don't think that it was very long ... which is one of the reasons I've wondered if it is normal for family to contact police so quickly when they haven't seen a child for 30 minutes or an hour and 30 minutes. Personally, I'm not sure whether to feel like a negligent parent for not having done this, or be thankful that I didn't think like that. I understand that it is quite normal for some to immediately contact police.

For a small town, it seems even more unusual to panic so early. I think of children in smaller towns as still being able to disappear for a few hours in the afternoon, show up for supper and nobody worries too much.

Here I was thinking kind of the opposite. But what I was really getting at is if they were on the phone to the police the first time. . .after say .5 hour to1.5 hrs, why did they wait so long the day of the disappearance?

Personally, I would have called much sooner, especially considering EC's age. 2.5 hrs is much too long in my mind for an 8yr old to be missing. But I don't live in a small town, so maybe I don't have the right mindset here.

 

[GrainneDhu]

The best I can recall is ...

I'm thinking back to the night that this was first reported, July 13. There was an early article that mentioned the people that the family spoke with at the park. We've heard about the young boy that was fishing, but I think the first article mentioned a couple of other people as well ... and I think that was the first time that I heard about a paddle boat. I remember wondering how the mom spoke to the paddleboater ... like ... did she lean over the water and holler. That's the only reason I'm thinking I read that ... I still have the crazy visual. Then I wondered if it was at the parking lot dock ... but paddle boats are not usually transported like canoes and kayaks, which brought me to the question of: what exactly is a paddle boat? Anyway, I started the paddle boat debate (apologies) ... I understand that it's a fibreglass, blow molded thing with seats (> 2), bicycle-type pedals and a paddle that is slowly turned to slowly move forward or in circles, depending on how many people are in the boat.

The young boy that was fishing for quite a while and didn't see the girls ... on what part of the lake was he fishing? That would tell us what side of the lake the family was first looking ... anyone know?

Technically, borrowing a paddle boat without permission could lead to attention from police. It could have been teenagers ... if a paddle boat was borrowed, they may have made a pact not to get sucked into the microscope of the investigation. Probably a wise decision whether they are guilty or innocent. Imagine if two 17 year old boys did it ...would they want their reputations dragged through the social media if there was no harm, no foul. I doubt it.

I'm not trying to be snarky but do you have a link for MCM saying she talked to someone in a paddle boat? I honestly do not recall anyone saying anything about a paddle boat until LE started calling for such a person to come forward.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I don't think that it was very long ... which is one of the reasons I've wondered if it is normal for family to contact police so quickly when they haven't seen a child for 30 minutes or an hour and 30 minutes. Personally, I'm not sure whether to feel like a negligent parent for not having done this, or be thankful that I didn't think like that. I understand that it is quite normal for some to immediately contact police.

For a small town, it seems even more unusual to panic so early. I think of children in smaller towns as still being able to disappear for a few hours in the afternoon, show up for supper and nobody worries too much.

The stats I was able to find state that the family reports the child missing to LE immediately in 19.6% of all cases (I'm guessing those are the ones where the family witnesses the abduction).

The family reports the child missing to LE within 1 hour in 27.5% of all cases.

The family reports the child missing to LE within 2 hours in 42.9% of all cases.

The family reports the child missing to LE within 4.5 hours in 68.4% of all cases.

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

I'll leave it to you to do the math to break out the percentages by category!

Grandma Cook said she started looking for the girls at about 12:30 pm and Heather Collins went to the Evansdale PD at about 2:45 pm. So that's 2 hours and 15 minutes, which seems to be fairly normal. Looks like it would fall right in the middle in the distribution.

 

[otto]

I watched two movies in the last day, Mystic River and Sleuth. Mystic River is about the oxymoron; the corrupt moral policeman, the man that murdered his best friend, the child released by two pedophiles, the young woman accidentally murdered by two youths, the man that was murdered because knowing him destroyed dreams. Sleuth was about being clever and getting into someone else's head. It was a well done remake unlike the original.

Men that kidnap children must be astute, able to assess people and turn that into an advantage. In Mystic River, the child was abducted through first being questioned (name, address), verbally or psychologically separately from the group, and then told to get in the car. When that didn't work right away, the perp became more aggressive and verbally abusive. The child complied while the friends watched and people on the street are not paying attention. Good film by Clint Eastwood.

I was at a park one day with my young son. There was a girl of about 5 or 6 by herself. We learned her name, address and phone number in under five minutes. She was very proud of being able to recite it.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Makes sense ... is Briar Hill or Heights Park part of Waterloo or a separate community and is there a lake? If so, is it possible that whatever happened at Briar Park was the perp's practice run for what happened at Meyers Lake?

One previous encounter at another park would have made it so much easier to abduct the children. Was it Monday, four days earlier, that she was late (police called)? Tuesday, three days earlier, she was so sad that she told her grandmother that she wanted to run away? All a perp had to do was plant the idea of going to Meyers Lake on Friday at noon ... for a "bull in a china shop" personality ... a dare, a challenge without full consideration of the consequences ... in my opinion.

I'm not sure about the places you named. From Wikipedia, here's a list of the suburbs of Waterloo:

Small suburbs include Evansdale, Hudson, Raymond, Elk Run Heights, Gilbertville, and Washburn.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterloo,_Iowa#Metropolitan_area

As I recall, Lyric had been with her cousin KB on Monday, 9 July. I assume that LE questioned KB extensively to figure out where they had gone, why, if they met anyone while they were gone, etc. And then followed up on any information she had to give.

Since there hasn't been any indication of LE having a suspect in mind, if something happened during that time they were late, it's possible it was so subtle that KB didn't pick up on it.

I think that Lyric being late just four days previously is a red herring, though.

 

[otto]

The stats I was able to find state that the family reports the child missing to LE immediately in 19.6% of all cases (I'm guessing those are the ones where the family witnesses the abduction).

The family reports the child missing to LE within 1 hour in 27.5% of all cases.

The family reports the child missing to LE within 2 hours in 42.9% of all cases.

The family reports the child missing to LE within 4.5 hours in 68.4% of all cases.

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

I'll leave it to you to do the math to break out the percentages by category!

Grandma Cook said she started looking for the girls at about 12:30 pm and Heather Collins went to the Evansdale PD at about 2:45 pm. So that's 2 hours and 15 minutes, which seems to be fairly normal. Looks like it would fall right in the middle in the distribution.

If you ask me to do the math, I'm seeing that 19.6 + 27.5 + 42.9 + 68.4 doesn't equal 100%, so I'm thinking that someone didn't sort out the times accurately.

Or ... Is that cummulative ... and does that means that 31.6% of parents waited longer than 4.5 hours to make a report, 19% called immediately, 8% waited for an hour, another 15% were called in after 2 hours, and that increased another 15% after 4.5 hours.

Gotta check if that adds up ... 32 + 19 + 8 + 15 + 15 = 90 ... still 10 short. That doesn't work either. The stats are messed up ... when looking at the math, IMO.

 

[otto]

I'm not trying to be snarky but do you have a link for MCM saying she talked to someone in a paddle boat? I honestly do not recall anyone saying anything about a paddle boat until LE started calling for such a person to come forward.

I don't have a link ... like I posted ... I have a vague memory of reading an article on July 13 about the family having spoken to several people at the park when they were looking at the girls. Other than the boy that was fishing, has anyone else been identified?

On what part of the lake was the boy ... NEWS?

 

[GrainneDhu]

If you ask me to do the math, I'm seeing that 19.6 + 27.5 + 42.9 + 68.4 doesn't equal 100%, so I'm thinking that someone didn't sort out the times accurately.

Or ... Is that cummulative ... and does that means that 31.6% of parents waited longer than 4.5 hours to make a report, 19% called immediately, 8% waited for an hour, another 15% were called in after 2 hours, and that increased another 15% after 4.5 hours.

Gotta check if that adds up ... 32 + 19 + 8 + 15 + 15 = 90 ... still 10 short. That doesn't work either. The stats are messed up ... when looking at the math, IMO.

BBM

The part bolded by me is how I understood the stats to add up. Each category includes the previous category or categories.

It does add up because I didn't include all the stats (they weren't relevant to Elizabeth and Lyric):

Families reported a child missing within 24 hours in 86.6% of all cases.

Families reported a child missing after more than 24 hours in 99% of all cases.

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

Sorry about that, I didn't intend to mislead you.