IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[otto]

BBM

The part bolded by me is how I understood the stats to add up. Each category includes the previous category or categories.

It does add up because I didn't include all the stats (they weren't relevant to Elizabeth and Lyric):

Families reported a child missing within 24 hours in 86.6% of all cases.

Families reported a child missing after more than 24 hours in 99% of all cases.

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

Sorry about that, I didn't intend to mislead you.

How does the cummulative, adding up each category, work? Interpretting the stats as cummulative, I only get 90%. The stats posted related to time delay between children missing and parents contacting authorities. What stats weren't included that correspond to time?

By adding in the last two stats, it's again more than 100% ... not feasible. The numbers don't make sense cummulatively or factually. Regardless, i suppose it's safe to assume that most parents, including those in custody disputes, have notified authorities about missing children within 4.5 hours. I'm not convinced that this helps us with understanding randomly abducted children ... stats are muddy.

I think I'll step away from the math ... stats is so easy to manipulate.

 

[otto]

I'm not sure about the places you named. From Wikipedia, here's a list of the suburbs of Waterloo:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterloo,_Iowa#Metropolitan_area

As I recall, Lyric had been with her cousin KB on Monday, 9 July. I assume that LE questioned KB extensively to figure out where they had gone, why, if they met anyone while they were gone, etc. And then followed up on any information she had to give.

Since there hasn't been any indication of LE having a suspect in mind, if something happened during that time they were late, it's possible it was so subtle that KB didn't pick up on it.

I think that Lyric being late just four days previously is a red herring, though.

I think that Lyric threatening to run away from home was resolved immediately and is not related to her disappearance (red herring), but the delay at the Briar Heights Park has always interested me, especially since the family looked in the park and couldn't find the girls. What were they doing ... hiding? Was the family looking but not seeing? What went wrong at that time?

Was that the moment that somehitng went wrong with two girls?

 

[FrayedKnot]

Here I was thinking kind of the opposite. But what I was really getting at is if they were on the phone to the police the first time. . .after say .5 hour to1.5 hrs, why did they wait so long the day of the disappearance?

Personally, I would have called much sooner, especially considering EC's age. 2.5 hrs is much too long in my mind for an 8yr old to be missing. But I don't live in a small town, so maybe I don't have the right mindset here.

Perhaps because after calling so quickly the previous time (which, BTW, I would have done), only to have the girls walk up whilst MCM was on the phone with police, she/they felt like they needed to search more and wait a bit longer.

Who knows? Maybe LE made them feel ridiculous for calling the first time. Anyone on the scanner threads can tell you that the dispatchers and even officers can sound pretty snarky at times, esp if they feel someone is wasting their time.

All JMHO.

 

[GrainneDhu]

How does the cummulative, adding up each category, work? Interpretting the stats as cummulative, I only get 90%. The stats posted related to time delay between children missing and parents contacting authorities. What stats weren't included that correspond to time?

By adding in the last two stats, it's again more than 100% ... not feasible. The numbers don't make sense cummulatively or factually. Regardless, i suppose it's safe to assume that most parents, including those in custody disputes, have notified authorities about missing children within 4.5 hours. I'm not convinced that this helps us with understanding randomly abducted children ... stats are muddy.

I think I'll step away from the math ... stats is so easy to manipulate.

It would be that 99% take longer than 24 hours to report; add that to the 1% of children who never have a missing persons report filed. That's 100%

86.6% are reported missing within 24 hours, so 13.4% are reported between 4.5 hours and 24 hours.

68.4% are reported missing within 4.5 hours so 18.2% are reported between 2 hours and 4.5 hours.

42.9% are reported missing within 2 hours so 15.4% are reported between 1 hour and 2 hours.

27.5 are reported missing within 1 hour so 7.9% are reported missing between immediately and 1 hour.

19.6 are reported missing immediately (I shudder to think how horrible it would be to see your child snatched and only be able to call LE to fix it).

Please keep in mind that I was never good at math and haven't gotten any better with 35+ years between me and the last math class I took.

The study only included abducted children who were younger than 18, the original police agency receiving the report acted from the beginning on the possibility that the child had been abducted by a non-family member and the case was solved in some way (either via trial or via high probability that the case had been solved but did not go to trial for some reason).

The reason I brought it up is because it seems to me that, although we don't know what happened to the girls, that study was what I could find that quantified the behaviour of parents or guardians when a child is abducted.

From that limited perspective, it seems to me that the family was about average for the length of time they waited before contacting LE.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I think that Lyric threatening to run away from home was resolved immediately and is not related to her disappearance (red herring), but the delay at the Briar Heights Park has always interested me, especially since the family looked in the park and couldn't find the girls. What were they doing ... hiding? Was the family looking but not seeing? What went wrong at that time?

Was that the moment that somehitng went wrong with two girls?

I've been looking and can't find what I think I remember. Possibly because I can't check any of the video interviews right now.

So, with no cite available, I think I remember MCM or maybe DM saying that the two girls were at a friend's house where they had detoured instead of going to the park.

If something did happen with the two girls, I think KB would have told by now. I can't imagine an 11 year old keeping such a secret under the circumstances.

So if something happened, I think it must have been really, really subtle and nothing so blatant as "hey, girls, meet me at Meyer's Lake next Friday and we'll do <fill in blank with something fun>."

I'm hoping KB would remember giving out personal information to anyone. And in any case, why would either girl mention Evansdale, since neither of them live there?

 

[GrainneDhu]

Perhaps because after calling so quickly the previous time (which, BTW, I would have done), only to have the girls walk up whilst MCM was on the phone with police, she/they felt like they needed to search more and wait a bit longer.

Who knows? Maybe LE made them feel ridiculous for calling the first time. Anyone on the scanner threads can tell you that the dispatchers and even officers can sound pretty snarky at times, esp if they feel someone is wasting their time.

All JMHO.

I suspect you're right. And it probably made the family even more likely to think that the girls were at a friend's house or had strayed a little too far to hear grandma calling them, etc.

Because they'd just been through it, I think their initial reaction would be less panicky and more "those kids!"

 

[hollyblue]

Here I was thinking kind of the opposite. But what I was really getting at is if they were on the phone to the police the first time. . .after say .5 hour to1.5 hrs, why did they wait so long the day of the disappearance?

Personally, I would have called much sooner, especially considering EC's age. 2.5 hrs is much too long in my mind for an 8yr old to be missing. But I don't live in a small town, so maybe I don't have the right mindset here.

We were never told how long they had been missing before MCM called the police. I've asked the same because I thought the time period of calling LE on the 13th was a little long. Search started at 12:30 and HC went to the police station around 2:45. The official LE time is 2:47.

The only persons that I've seen mentioned to being talked to by TB that day were the boy fishing and the man who stated he saw girls on their bikes around 2:30. The paddleboat was never mentioned until LE brought it up in a presser that they wanted to talk the person. I believe it was just for info on what they many have seen also.

There were many discussions on FB regarding the paddleboat and I think we are confusing it with MSM. imo

 

[hollyblue]

Makes sense ... is Briar Hill or Heights Park part of Waterloo or a separate community and is there a lake? If so, is it possible that whatever happened at Briar Park was the perp's practice run for what happened at Meyers Lake?

One previous encounter at another park would have made it so much easier to abduct the children. Was it Monday, four days earlier, that she was late (police called)? Tuesday, three days earlier, she was so sad that she told her grandmother that she wanted to run away? All a perp had to do was plant the idea of going to Meyers Lake on Friday at noon ... for a "bull in a china shop" personality ... a dare, a challenge without full consideration of the consequences ... in my opinion.

I had never heard of Briar Park in this case and check for it on line. No Briar Park in Waterloo. Where did you see this? Greenbriar is the subdivsion they were in when LCM & KB were late. I'm assuming it was Tibbets Park which is just south of the subdivsion. May be nothing, but I noticed there is bike trail near that area also.

ETA: I always thought it was strange she called Dan that day when they were missing. Wasn't there limited contact between him and Lyric?

greenbriar, waterloo, ia - Google Maps

 

[azuredewdrop]

I had never heard of Briar Park in this case and check for it on line. No Briar Park in Waterloo. Where did you see this? Greenbriar is the subdivsion they were in when LCM & KB were late. I'm assuming it was Tibbets Park which is just south of the subdivsion. May be nothing, but I noticed there is bike trail near that area also.

ETA: I always thought it was strange she called Dan that day when they were missing. Wasn't there limited contact between him and Lyric?

I don't think the NCO included Lyric. My understanding has always been that it was just for MCM.

That said, she may have started off calling him simply to ask "What did you say to her??"

Or it could be as simple as, because he is the child's father. I realize he has a past that includes drugs, and that he has charges for hitting MCM. So we know he harms himself, and he has gotten in to a fight and harmed his wife. But we don't have much more facts to go on about him and his role as a father. He had his son the day that the girls disappeared, so he must have some role with his kids.

 

[cindersoot]

The other night I watched a show where they stage a house and catch a predator. I was so shocked the amount of men who are looking for young girls for sex. This is a major problem in our society right now. Has anyone else seen that show?

 

[Jax49]

Timeline -- IIRC

Some reports had the firefighter finding the bikes at 3:58. We never heard when Abben arrived and saw the bikes leaning against the fence.

 

[MNDad]

I didn't get a chance to put together any route videos last night. I will sneak it in today and get it done.

 

[ColetteS]

I see references in many posts to Dan Morrissey being a meth addict. I'm not certain that's the case--although I say this based purely on impression. He looks healthy enough; he hasn't wasted away, in fact, he looks pretty strong, and his skin is healthy looking, too. So while his arrest record can't be disputed, is it possible that he was/is more present as a parent than we have given him credit for? He could be cooking and selling meth without using it.

 

[Sailorsgirl]

The other night I watched a show where they stage a house and catch a predator. I was so shocked the amount of men who are looking for young girls for sex. This is a major problem in our society right now. Has anyone else seen that show?

Yes, I have seen it. It's awful to think that many men want to have sex with young girls/teens. Makes you wonder how many pervs you actually know.

 

[Sailorsgirl]

I see references in many posts to Dan Morrissey being a meth addict. I'm not certain that's the case--although I say this based purely on impression. He looks healthy enough; he hasn't wasted away, in fact, he looks pretty strong, and his skin is healthy looking, too. So while his arrest record can't be disputed, is it possible that he was/is more present as a parent than we have given him credit for? He could be cooking and selling meth without using it.

I thought he just made it and sold it. I'm sure that because he did cook it in his own house, it would show it a tox screen from exposure to it. However, it's my understanding that Lyric was living with her grandmother.

 

[MizStery]

I thought the following was posted last night. But,it is never out of fashion or too late to show appreciation. Thanks,is not enough for the fabulous timeline..you both have constructed. It took a lot of work to put it together! What amazing passion and commitment Websleuthers have for justice!

I don't have a timeline mapped out, but I just suggest following all the times stated from the beginning of the day on 7/13 by everyone who was interviewed, LE, tipsters, etc., starting with MCM's description of seeing Lyric that morning. Where everyone was, when everyone saw everyone, when the cctv caught the girls on camera..when people searched at the lake...who searched where...the whole shebang, leading up to finding the bikes at 3:58. Someone on here must have written it down..I haven't...only in my head..Lol After reviewing the whole day, see what stands out and where the kinks are..where stories have morphed. It is a jigsaw puzzle for sure.

Thank-you Sunlight.

Oops sorry! I didn't mean for that to seem like a timeline. It was more my confusion over the times quoted. This has probably
been cleared up already but just in case, the timeline I've heard/read has been:

- Sometime from 11:30 - 12:00 girls leave house to go bike riding
- 12:11 (or 12:19 depending on camera clock delays) girls are seen riding behind Lederman's on the surveillance camera (also very close to the Collins
house); unknown IMO if G'ma physically saw them at that time or not
- 3:58 detective Abben sees the bikes by the fence

Optional...
- 12:27 Mr. G makes a call to his daughter unrelated to the bikes; a few days later says he swerved to miss the girls' bikes at about 12:20, with the time
based on the call to his daughter.
- "Sometime between 12 and 3" Mr. C says he saw the girls while he was watering his yard.
- Around 1:00 family started looking for the girls by driving around; I think they called the police around 3:00 but I'm still trying to find that reference again.
- 3:40 firefighters found the girls' bikes and the purse (condition unknown)
- 3:58 detective Abben found the bikes leaning against the fence

I know others are more diligent with the timeline and probably already posted
but just in case...

Thank-you nikb! I appreciate the help. I followed this case daily for about three weeks. Then, I became involved with all the tasks involved with making a vacation trip.

Now,thanks to your help.I will attempt to familiarize myself with the timeline you posted.

I hope to return the good turn someday.. MOO

 

[TxLady2]

IMO and with my personal experience of raising two children plus being very close to lots of other children (nieces, nephews, children of close friends) and with having worked with children from violent homes for over 20 years, no. Not every child threatens or attempts to run away from home at some point or another. I am sure it never occurred to my kids to run away from home. In fact, we talked about it and they couldn't understand why a child would want to run away. My kids loved being at home. Even if things weren't going their way (which was often) they would cope without wanting to leave. But I do not think it's necessarily a reflection of a "troubled" child. And, I don't think all children who do have more than their share of difficulties do think about running away from home.

Right... not all troubled kids threaten to run away. OTOH, some who come from stable and loving families will sometimes
make threats. Kids are unpredictable, you just never know what they're going to do. If the thought of running away never occurred to your children, congratulations, you must have done a good job. But that doesn't mean it won't or hasn't occurred to other kids, no matter what kind of home they live in.
My parents were good, normal parents and there was no abuse going on when I was growing up. My father did not drink or beat up my mother and they did not fight all the time... though they did argue once in a while. But I threatened to run away at least a couple of times, maybe more. My mother's remedy was to offer to help me pack and tell me to call home every chance I got. I never carried through with my threats.
The point is, it doesn't matter what kind of home a child lives in or how good or bad their parents are, it's the child's ability to handle stress and their individual temperament that determines what they do and how they react.

 

[janie]

I thought he just made it and sold it. I'm sure that because he did cook it in his own house, it would show it a tox screen from exposure to it. However, it's my understanding that Lyric was living with her grandmother.

I believe that MCM and Lyric were both living with MCM's Mom and according to iowacourtsonline.com, the maternal grandmother has legal guardianship of Lyric. There are entries in iowacourtsonline for which Grandma has asked for child support from both parents, but it is possible that Grandma didn't actually ask for the money, but the State may have. If Grandma is getting gov't assistance (healthcare, cash assistance for the child), the State goes after the parents for child support to repay the government assistance.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I suspect you're right. And it probably made the family even more likely to think that the girls were at a friend's house or had strayed a little too far to hear grandma calling them, etc.

Because they'd just been through it, I think their initial reaction would be less panicky and more "those kids!"

I agree - Grandma told HC and MSM that they needed to go find their kids. That sounds more like irritation than fear, IMO, which I attribute to the previous instance when Lyric was late getting home.

 

[dropstar]

Missing girls update: Gosch helps in search effort

DES MOINES, Iowa -
The mother of missing paperboy Johnny Gosch is helping Wednesday in the search for two missing Iowa girls from Evansdale.

Noreen Gosch will be at a booth setup at the Iowa State Fair to help collect clues in the case. The booth is located in the Grandstand in the Hall of Law.

Gosch was 12 years old when he went missing in West Des Moines on Sept. 5, 1982.

Authorities believe Lyric Cook and Elizabeth Collins were abducted on July 13 in Evansdale, a suburb of Waterloo.

Last Thursday, Collin's parents were at the State Fair.

The booth features pictures of the girls and has fliers. Officials said people from Iowa and outside the state coming to fair could offer new clues in the case. Fliers are being handed out at the booth.

DCI agents told KCRG-TV last week that that they received at least one tip at the State Fair on Thursday that they are following up on.

Evansdale police said they continue to receive tips from the public and encourage anyone with even minor information to come forward.

A $50,000 reward is being offered in the case.

Anyone with information on the case should call 319-232-6682 or Cedar Valley Crime Stoppers at 855-300-8477.


http://www.kcci.com/news/central-io...16052336/-/mnf1llz/-/index.html#ixzz23dBKnxuE