IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[GrainneDhu]

MOO - I don't know a lot about plea deals etc, but my GUESS is that if someone was threatening him they had to have known whether or not he had already spilled the beans. I guess I don't know...I assumed you only GOT a plea deal by already talking and your deal would be based on how much worthy information they received. It wouldn't make sense (to me) for them to give you a plea deal first, and then make you talk. You could give them nothing at that point AND get a lesser sentence.:waitasec:

SBM

How plea deals are usually arranged is one side makes an offer called a proffer. The proffer is phrased in a sort of "what if?" manner and is not admissible in court. It is also not probable cause, so there is not necessarily any investigative value to the fact of a proffer.

If the defence makes a proffer, it usually goes something like "what if my client were to be able to testify to x, y and z?"

If the prosecutor makes a proffer, it usually goes something like "if your client were to testify to x, y and z, then we would be prepared to drop to a lower charge or to recommend a certain sentence to the judge."

No matter what the two sides agree upon, the judge has the final say. If the judge refuses to sign off on the deal, the defendant can choose to change their plea.

 

[SapphireSteel]

My theory is increasingly simple. The girls biked to the lake, passing the cctv, and they arrived at the trail where they were ambushed and abducted by someone who was there...then they were taken away either on foot or by a vehicle, because there was plenty of time until 3:58 for them to have been escorted, carried, driven, or dragged away. I think they are somewhere in the general area, and I do not think they have survived. Obviously, I want to be completely wrong. JMHO

I have always worked on the KISS theory, which pretty much excluded paddle boaters and Craigs Listers, puppy dogs and fishing boys.

The KISS theory states they were taken where the bikes were found, by someone they knew and trusted.

:moo:

 

[iamnotagolem]

Meth users are usually only focussed on one thing - getting more meth.

They become scattered, illogical, unable even to accomplish basic tasks like hygiene.

This appears to have been a very well organised abduction. It is extremely unusual for two children to be taken, for ANY reason.

Please do not bring up the Groenes as this is completely different - that was an abduction as a side effect of murder, the perp had time and a vehicle, plus was acting in a very isolated scene.

I sincerely doubt that the abduction of two children has been successfully orchestrated by meth associates trying to put pressure on anyone.

If nothing else, tweakers are LAZY. They can barely think beyond the next score, let alone plan and execute a flawless abduction in the middle of town in the random hope it will place pressure on someone who is also affected by meth, therefore clearly prioritising the drug over his family anyway.

Not bashing the family...it is a fact that neither parent took physical care or responsibility for Lyric, nor had they for some years.

I agree. I also have a hard time believing that the kidnapping was out of revenge for Dan by taking Lyric, not bashing him or the family but he didn't have custody and would his drug associates even know she existed?

Also, the Groene family killing/abduction was a home invasion, he stalked them and took the two kids from the home. Lyric & Lizzie's disappearance isn't similar at all, in my opinion.

 

[roseofsharon]

My theory is increasingly simple. The girls biked to the lake, passing the cctv, and they arrived at the trail where they were ambushed and abducted by someone who was there...then they were taken away either on foot or by a vehicle, because there was plenty of time until 3:58 for them to have been escorted, carried, driven, or dragged away. I think they are somewhere in the general area, and I do not think they have survived. Obviously, I want to be completely wrong. JMHO

The only thing I would add to this is that imo when the girls were in the Lederman parking lot, someone local taking Friday afternoon off, was parked in the back of one of these stores, spotted them, watched for awhile, and followed them. The perp knew Maiden Lane, possibly even lived very close to it, was able to drive faster than the girls could ride, to get to that particular location, parked at their home or in the path, walked through the path to the gate and stopped them, lured them into a vehicle or their home in the neighbourhood, knowing possibly the neighbours were at work.

I still think the girls are alive!

Just MOO

 

[Confusion]

SBM

How plea deals are usually arranged is one side makes an offer called a proffer. The proffer is phrased in a sort of "what if?" manner and is not admissible in court. It is also not probable cause, so there is not necessarily any investigative value to the fact of a proffer.

If the defence makes a proffer, it usually goes something like "what if my client were to be able to testify to x, y and z?"

If the prosecutor makes a proffer, it usually goes something like "if your client were to testify to x, y and z, then we would be prepared to drop to a lower charge or to recommend a certain sentence to the judge."

No matter what the two sides agree upon, the judge has the final say. If the judge refuses to sign off on the deal, the defendant can choose to change their plea.

BBM

Good point. It is possible that DM changed his mind about the plea agreement because the judge wouldn't allow only 5-10 years. It's possible that someone did take the girls to keep him from giving more information to make the judge more likely to change his mind, but I doubt it. I've know many drug users (and a fair number of mfgrs) and have never known one to kidnap a child. I have, however, known at least 2 to be murdered for talking (or appearing to have talked), and agree that's a more likely action.

 

[Marilynilpa]

The only thing I would add to this is that imo when the girls were in the Lederman parking lot, someone local taking Friday afternoon off, was parked in the back of one of these stores, spotted them, watched for awhile, and followed them. The perp knew Maiden Lane, possibly even lived very close to it, was able to drive faster than the girls could ride, to get to that particular location, parked at their home or in the path, walked through the path to the gate and stopped them, lured them into a vehicle or their home in the neighbourhood, knowing possibly the neighbours were at work.

I still think the girls are alive!

Just MOO

Just one question - how would this perp know where the girls were heading?

 

[katydid23]

Her body language is void of fear. He may have given the old "Your parent, friend,etc. has been hurt, come with me". This looks like she had no idea she was being abducted.

IIRC, he showed her some kind of security badge, and said she was trespassing on the car wash property by walking through that shortcut. He made her think she was in trouble, ordered her to come with him, and she obeyed his 'authority.'

 

[rjjensen]

Can you get dna from urine?

good question so i looked it up...you can but its not reliable since pure urine would not contain cells but its likely there are some cells there

 

[rjjensen]

My theory is increasingly simple. The girls biked to the lake, passing the cctv, and they arrived at the trail where they were ambushed and abducted by someone who was there...then they were taken away either on foot or by a vehicle, because there was plenty of time until 3:58 for them to have been escorted, carried, driven, or dragged away. I think they are somewhere in the general area, and I do not think they have survived. Obviously, I want to be completely wrong. JMHO

yep thats it i think.

 

[Bootsctr]

Agreed it isn't just this summer ... it is every summer and not to create a stir or panic but it tends to increase towards the end of August and beginning of September (just before school starts). All moo.

Yes, abductions do increase toward the starting of school. Here are the statistics in Iowa that reflect that trend:

In 2011, juveniles tended to go missing most often in September and October.

“The timing reflects (the) beginning of the school year when kids go back to more structured lifestyles after summer vacation,” said Linda Mason, who manages missing person information for the state of Iowa.

Also, children the age of Lyric and Elizabeth are the least likely to be reported missing:

Children under age 18 are most likely to go missing in their teenage years. Fifteen- and 16-year-olds made up more than 48 percent of Iowa missing juvenile reports filed in 2011, according to the Missing Person Information Clearinghouse.

Children ages 6 to 10 — the relative ages of Lyric and Elizabeth — are among the least likely to be reported missing, making up the second-lowest number of missing child reports in 2011 behind infants through age 5.

Males were slightly more likely to go missing than girls, but females were more likely to run away from home more than once, state data show.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...onfirms-missing-Iowa-girls-timeline?Frontpage

 

[Bootsctr]

Good evening, mostly peoples.

I went back to Meyers Lake today. I've got pictures to post, so hopefully I'm able to do that sucessfully. This post has a picture in it as a test case.

I must say, I was there for 45 minutes and I only saw 2 people. On a weekday between 12 and 4, this place is emptier than I would have thought. Of course, it is a possible crime scene these days. I still don't believe that the bikes sat there from 12:30 to 4:00 without being seen.

Anyway, here comes multiple posts by me.

Thank you so much for the pictures! Great job! Is that the entry to the bike trail? I think Meyers Lake was very quiet the day girls disappeared. The perp realized it too and took full advantage of the lack of activity... except for the girls. It gave me a cold chill and a pause the other day when you stated that date as Friday the 13th. Thanks again for posting!

 

[Bootsctr]

This looks like a fun place, it even has an icecream shop nearby and people coming from out of town to visit...
http://wcfcourier.com/business/local/article_433e1ff7-a1f4-5529-8d3d-12b7e09cac3f.html
"Hall said Harris Haven's reputation is spreading. He said people come from area towns and as far away as Cedar Rapids and Kansas City to get scared. The idea is to make Evansdale the Halloween capital of Northeast Iowa, Hall said.

The addition is good for the community, he added. Since Harris Haven is located in Evansdale's business district, businesses nearby see an uptick in traffic when it opens the last weekend in September.

Brandon Gute, owner of 4 Queens Dairy Cream, said fall is not usually the best time to sell cool treats. When Harris Haven opens, he said business increases 10 percent.

"We see a lot more people come into town that we probably wouldn't if it wasn't for the haunt," Gute said"

That's interesting! So the Harrises were actual people that lived in Evansdale at one point and time. They did experiments and then they finally disappeared. That's kind of creepy. Thaks for the link.

 

[threecrazykids]

Because these aren't rational people we are dealing with. YOU might not make the choice to kidnap kids, but drug dealers don't care about getting in trouble. They care about money, territory and revenge. They usually hire an underling to do the dirty work. That underling is usually an addict who will do LITERALLY ANYTHING for money. Did you see the movie Savages? Great film, and it shows just what kind of despicable things drug dealers do all the time without batting an eyelash.

For the record, I don't think that is what happened. But it is definitely possible and we shouldn't rule it out because WE wouldn't do it.

Maybe I am misunderstanding your comment. Drug dealers don't care about getting in trouble? Then why worry about silencing DM?

I am not a drug user, nor am I friendly with anyone who uses drugs regularly - however, I know for a fact that the last thing drug dealers want is to bring LE around. Aren't drug users (or any criminal for that matter) typically a little paranoid when LE comes around? They don't want to draw attention by making the silencing any more complicated and "investigative worthy" than it needs to be.

And I just don't get how this is going to silence anyone. DM is facing prison time and could quite possibly serve decades - I would think he's got nothing to lose at this point. I could see the THREAT of abduction to silence him, but once the deed is done I would think all bets of silence would be off. If revenge comes into play, I would think this would give DM MORE of a reason to talk, not shut up.

I am not ruling it out completely - it's an option - I just believe the FBI would still be putting way more heat on the family. Right now I see a VERY desperate investigation going on...I don't think they have anything.

 

[ShyViolet]

I think you're right.

I will never, never forget an interview with the man who was with Jacob Wetterling the night Jacob disappeared (he was a boy then, now he's a man).

It was the single most terrifying thing I have ever seen on a screen. Worse for me than any horror movie. The absolute terror of the memory after 20something years just came right through and grabbed me.

The perpetrator told the two boys he didn't take to run across the field to the tree line and not to look back or he would shoot them. I think it was an act of supreme courage that both boys took a look behind them before they'd run entirely across the field. I know I would have been totally obedient and just kept on running.

People keep saying it would be difficult to control two girls. I think it would be no harder to control two than one if some sort of weapon were displayed.

Yes, I said the same thing. A gun would make it all very easy. Jacob's kidnapping has come to mind many times while thinking of the girls. Kids just out riding bikes, feeling safe in their small town, when the most horrible thing imaginable happens.

 

[roseofsharon]

Just one question - how would this perp know where the girls were heading?

He/they followed them. Just moo

 

[Bootsctr]

The police seems to think it is significant that they were not going in the direction of Myers Lake. I dont think LE is convinced the girls ever went there that day.

IMO

I'm just wondering how anyone can say that they are not going in the direction of the lake when the lake is South of the house and they have to first go either East or West for half a block before they go South. They went West, but that doesn't mean that they didn't then turn South. The same would be true if the first went East.

Sorry if I mess this up. I'm not sure how to do the double quote correctly.
I just think the lake would not have been drained if LE had another idea of the girls never being at the lake because it was not declared an abduction until after draining the lake and the time stamp on the video. After the lake got so low the family seemed convinced the girls were not in the lake, but FBI still brought in sonar to make absolutely certain they were not there. Finding my child's bike at the lake and not finding them I believe I would first think they drowned.

 

[CoeTrawk]

My first set of woods pics are up now, back on page six. Here's my last set.

Pic 1 just show how much denser the woods are on Maiden Lane as opposed to the rest of the woods. There is a curve in the Lane that would allow a vehicle to sit back there, unseen from Arbutus or anywhere else. It's definitely a bumpy ride, but its obviously driveable. Because of the fence, Maiden Lane is a one-way proposition. You drive in and back out, or back in and drive out. If anyone else came along, you're stuck. If Maiden Lane was used, I'd guess the perp(s) backed in there and drove out, especially given that they had to back around a curve to get to the most hidden part.

If there was a vehicle going around back there, I can't believe no one heard it. Maybe someone did, but didn't think it was in the woods, or thought it was a legitimate parks department operation. Surely the engine and twigs snapping would be fairly loud.

Pic 2 scares the scheiss out of me. This is a little footpath that leads from Maiden Lane to a little "beach." (Again, the sandy parts were underwater then, but the grass next to it was the shore then. Look how low the grass is. Usualble as a beach IMO.) And this beach is a stone's throw away from the maintence gate and jetty, or alternately the water-access point at the end of the fence. A hypothetical boat ride could have lasted just one minute before the girls were bundled into a hypothetical vehicle on Maiden Lane.

Pic 3 shows the hole in the fence below the interstate, and Pic 4 is taken from the same spot, just to show where it is in relation to the double fence section. I don't think the interstate had anything to do with the abduction, but wanted to document the location of the fence's hole just for the sake of it. By the way, is that a freakin' white van in pic 4????

A note regarding the interstate noise: at midday there is not a huge amount of traffic. There are definitely quiet times where there is no noise. I don't believe the interstate would preclude someone from hearing a scream or anything like that.

Pic 5 is taken from the trail as it goes north/south on the west side of the lake. I don't think it means anything, but there's a path from the trail to the houses that are over there. Probably nothing, but just wanted to document another way onto the trail, just in case.

 

[Copper]

I know absolutely nothing when it comes to drugs or drug dealers. So please dont laugh at this question.

How often do they kidnap children? It seems to me as brutal as they are supposed to be they would simply shoot the person that they felt snitched on them in order to make a statement that this is what happens when anyone talks.

If this was to make a statement by drug dealers then I dont think it worked. Even LE said they are wondering if they were taken by a RSO. It seems if that is who has them they would want everyone to know it because if not then how does everyone get the message?

IMO

This is way out there, and it is the reason why I have so far excluded DM's legal troubles as a possible motive for the kidnapping. But from the beginning when there was enough info was out to put legal problems + meth + kidnapping children together immediately brings Mexican drug traffickers to mind as the violence in Mexico is starting to spill over in the States.

 

[CoeTrawk]

It has been stated on this thread, the lake restrooms.

Good to know, but to get to the parking lot from the back side he was still in all likelihood going around clockwise.

 

[Confusion]

By the way, is that a freakin' white van in pic 3????

I didn't see one in pic 3, but there's definitely one in pic 4. I'll bet he's been sitting there for a month waiting for one of us to spot him! :crazy: