IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[zoebella]

One thing I wanted to mention in relation to the girl's route. I remember when I was a child, I was allowed to ride to certain friends homes - none were too far away. We were also allowed to ride to specific places - the public pool, rec center (baseball fields, etc), uptown, and sometimes even the store. (I grew up in a small town - think teeny little uptown with Mom and Pop type stores, everyone knew everyone ,etc)

Here is my point. Being kids, we did not always take the routes that were quickest, nor the ones that made the most sense. Sometimes we would take detours so we could ride by other friends houses to see if they were home. Sometimes we would circle a few times around random blocks to lengthen our ride (i.e. Mom said we could ride up to the bakery to grab a cookie but she didn't say we couldn't circle the block 4-5 times). Sometimes we went way out of our way - well, just because we were kids. Maybe we wanted to race for a block. Maybe we were side-by-side talking about something that happened in school, or complaining about siblings or mean girls - whatever. I even remember singing songs while we rode. Sometimes we even played pretend on our bikes - made believe we were on horses or were driving cars, things like that.

My point is, I am trying to look at the girls bike time from the perspective of a child rather than an adult. Adults tend to ride certain routes they know. We also tend to ride based on logic. If we have a specific destination, we'll probably take the best route (unless we are just out for a joyride or know we have time to meander around).

So to me, this could either complicate the timeline, or help explain it. Some mentioned the girls looked to be going very fast in the video clip and maybe we being chased. Another theory could be that they were racing. Or maybe they were pretending they were superheros and during that point of play, needed to go faster.

Sorry for rambling, just some thoughts I had concerning the girls' bike time and thinking back to time I spent on my bike as a kid. And all of this may have been already bought up. I've been reading most of these threads but honestly, a lot of my time has been in the basement so please forgive me if I am recycling theories. I just kept thinking about this the past few days and wanted to throw it out there.

 

[GrainneDhu]

If it hasn't been mentioned already, one more possible motive: protection of one or both of the girls for whatever reason.

It's the motive I think is least likely but the one I hope for the most.

Respectfully, I disagree.

Anyone who is so out of touch with societal norms that they think abducting two girls is the correct answer for protecting them is, well, not in touch with reality.

I read an article years ago where a true pedophile (sexually attracted only to small children) talked about how he loved those children, how he wanted to protect them from the harsh realities of the world and how he believed that if he had a child to love and care for, that child would love him as well. I cannot remember where I read this article; it was on msm but I just don't remember. Probably either the BBC, The Guardian or The New York Times.

The takeaway lesson for me was that when dealing with people who are not firmly attached to reality, they may not realise just how mistaken they are.

 

[nikb]

Respectfully, I disagree.

Anyone who is so out of touch with societal norms that they think abducting two girls is the correct answer for protecting them is, well, not in touch with reality.

<snipped for space>

The takeaway lesson for me was that when dealing with people who are not firmly attached to reality, they may not realise just how mistaken they are.

I'm curious, which part(s) do you disagree with? That it's a possible motive? Unlikely? "Best case" scenario for the abduction? I tend to agree whoever abducted them is out of touch with reality, for sure. I was just interested in hearing more about your line of thinking.

 

[Confusion]

I'm curious, which part(s) do you disagree with? That it's a possible motive? Unlikely? "Best case" scenario for the abduction? I tend to agree whoever abducted them is out of touch with reality, for sure. I was just interested in hearing more about your line of thinking.

It s rather hard to think of a best case scenario for an abduction, but I do imagine it would be easier on the girls to be with someone who thought they were helping than someone who hated kids or was looking for a young wife/girlfriend, etc. At this point, I can't see the outcome being good no matter what, but I do hope it's one that can be "overcome" by both the girls and their families.

 

[rjjensen]

I've certainly jumped around with my theory, but if the cyclist really did see the bikes and we can't place a blind curve, or the photos of the cyclist talking with police, at the double gate, then it's quite possible he saw the bikes at another location on the trail. It would be rather unusual for there to be two sets of children that left their bikes on the trail that day, so it was most likely one set of children.

If we're working with cell phone tiime, the video was taken at 12:19 and the latest the cyclist saw the bikes would be at 12:25. That leave 4-6 minutes, which is perhaps enough time for the girls to ride immediately south from Brovan and drop their bikes somewhere on the west end of the trail ... it's still a tight timeline. However, if the girls dropped their bikes, explored, then rode them further down the trail, that explains the "on the path" and "leaning on the fence" as well.

the bikes TG saw could have been owned by other kids (if they were kids bikes) that were there before L and L arrived. that would make the timeline better..if we can trust the cctv

 

[Marilynilpa]

I've been following this case since day 1, and have gone back and forth as to what I think happened to Lyric and Elizabeth. I originally thought they'd be found in the lake, but obviously that was not right.

We've had theories posted that take into account all kinds of possibilities. After going through everything we know up to this point, I just can't come up with a good reason for the bikes being "staged" at the lake. Why would someone take the trouble of doing this once the girls were in his/their control? If it was only to buy time by making LE think the girls had been to the lake, why? Assuming the abductor(s) had a vehicle, they could have been on the highway and many miles away before anyone ever began looking for the girls. JMO

I'm having a hard time seeing how this act would benefit the abductor(s) in light of the risks involved in being found leaving the bikes.

 

[nikb]

It s rather hard to think of a best case scenario for an abduction, but I do imagine it would be easier on the girls to be with someone who thought they were helping than someone who hated kids or was looking for a young wife/girlfriend, etc. At this point, I can't see the outcome being good no matter what, but I do hope it's one that can be "overcome" by both the girls and their families.

I know what you mean. Even if it's someone who thinks they're helping the girls, this isn't the way to do it! It just seems like it would be slightly better for the girls, maybe. I don't see a good outcome but boy do I hope for one that can be overcome, like you said.

 

[Fukiyama]

the bikes TG saw could have been owned by other kids (if they were kids bikes) that were there before L and L arrived. that would make the timeline better..if we can trust the cctv

I've never trusted the CCTV time stamp. The only thing it's been cross referenced to is the owner's own cell phone and who knows how accurate that is. And then we have TG's cell phone and the person he was on the phone with whose own phone's time is a minute off of TG's. There could be a real gap between the CCTV-owner's cell phone and TG's cell phone. All this talk of split second timing and can the girls make it across town in seven or eight minutes seems like a lot of splitting hairs when we basically know nothing about how accurate any of the times involved actually are in reference to each other.

 

[mahoolin]

Does anyone wonder if grandma could have staged this to get Lyric away from drugs in the family? To get Lyric away, Elizabeth had to go to since they were together most of the time. Maybe she has friends/family in another state who have the children until DM goes to jail.
I wonder what she and Tammy had planned around 1:30 pm that day when they both left and were later called back. Could she have met the girls down by the lake? Also, on the video, is the Collins' house visible on it? If so, is there a car in the driveway? It was around 12:15, so grandma's car (if she had one) should be there.
I know this seems off the wall, but it has been in my head since reviewing the timeline and also noticing that grandma said Lyric was going to run away because of chores. As someone earlier posted, was grandma setting the scene as a reason that Lyric may have run away this time?

That's one of the many scenarios I played through my head, but I can't reconcile it. First, I don't think Grandma would put HC's heart under any more strain than it already is. Even if she was in on things and knew EC was ok, I think constant LE and media scrutiny along with the brutal court of public opinion would still take it's toll.

I just can't see it, I think she'd do things plain and simple - make MCM move out if things were getting bad or if the situation was becoming really dangerous just leave with Lyric until things settled down. :dunno:

Then I keep thinking of movies with the nicest, least suspected person turning around to the camera and grinning wickedly at the end. eruggghhhh :what:

 

[roseofsharon]

I've been following this case since day 1, and have gone back and forth as to what I think happened to Lyric and Elizabeth. I originally thought they'd be found in the lake, but obviously that was not right.

We've had theories posted that take into account all kinds of possibilities. After going through everything we know up to this point, I just can't come up with a good reason for the bikes being "staged" at the lake. Why would someone take the trouble of doing this once the girls were in his/their control? If it was only to buy time by making LE think the girls had been to the lake, why? Assuming the abductor(s) had a vehicle, they could have been on the highway and many miles away before anyone ever began looking for the girls. JMO

I'm having a hard time seeing how this act would benefit the abductor(s) in light of the risks involved in being found leaving the bikes.

The only reason I can think of would be that the perp is a local person, so they needed to get the bikes off their property (home or truck or van) quickly. The trail was the best place to drop the bikes off without being seen. Just Moo going with the staging of the bikes theory.

 

[Sunlight]

I've been following this case since day 1, and have gone back and forth as to what I think happened to Lyric and Elizabeth. I originally thought they'd be found in the lake, but obviously that was not right.

We've had theories posted that take into account all kinds of possibilities. After going through everything we know up to this point, I just can't come up with a good reason for the bikes being "staged" at the lake. Why would someone take the trouble of doing this once the girls were in his/their control? If it was only to buy time by making LE think the girls had been to the lake, why? Assuming the abductor(s) had a vehicle, they could have been on the highway and many miles away before anyone ever began looking for the girls. JMO

I'm having a hard time seeing how this act would benefit the abductor(s) in light of the risks involved in being found leaving the bikes.

I really don't think any assumption can be made at this point. Depending on the accuracy of the timeline, there was plenty of time between the time the girls arrived at the trail where the bikes were found, and the time they were discovered. They could have been walked out of the area in a matter of hours...or walked a distance and then put into a vehicle. A perp could easily have been on foot or on a bike for that matter. Leaving the bikes behind could just have been the convenient thing to do and a distraction for those that ultimately found them. MOO BBM

 

[Considering]

I've never trusted the CCTV time stamp. The only thing it's been cross referenced to is the owner's own cell phone and who knows how accurate that is. And then we have TG's cell phone and the person he was on the phone with whose own phone's time is a minute off of TG's. There could be a real gap between the CCTV-owner's cell phone and TG's cell phone. All this talk of split second timing and can the girls make it across town in seven or eight minutes seems like a lot of splitting hairs when we basically know nothing about how accurate any of the times involved actually are in reference to each other.

I don't think there is any significant difference between the cyclist making a call at 12:27 and that same call being received at 12:28. It's possible that the minute happened to change right at that moment. I think the time on the all the cell phones was likely the same or within a few seconds of each other.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I'm curious, which part(s) do you disagree with? That it's a possible motive? Unlikely? "Best case" scenario for the abduction? I tend to agree whoever abducted them is out of touch with reality, for sure. I was just interested in hearing more about your line of thinking.

I'm sorry, I should have made myself more clear.

I meant that I don't really believe that is the best case scenario.

It seems to me that some of the most permanently emotionally scarred people come out of situations where their abuser professed to love them and was seductive towards them. Survivors of abuse whose abuse was not cloaked in 'I do this because I love you' seem to fare somewhat better.

But now that you've got me thinking about it, I suddenly realised I honestly can't rank any of the possible scenarios. The ones where the girls are recovered alive are certainly better than any of the ones where they were killed.

So I withdraw my disagreement to your best scenario comment. I should have thought it through better.

Boy is this depressing. And I don't even know the girls personally.

 

[mahoolin]

The only reason I can think of would be that the perp is a local person, so they needed to get the bikes off their property (home or truck or van) quickly. The trail was the best place to drop the bikes off without being seen. Just Moo going with the staging of the bikes theory.

I agree, if the girls are right across town or around the corner, the perp would NOT want to be found with any recognizable items linked to the girls found with him, or it'd be all over. I still think whoever is responsible could have seen the girls at the lake (and not realizing they weren't allowed) could have placed the bikes there to make it looked like they drowned while they were there. Unfortunately, that made it look more suspicious since they weren't supposed to be there to begin with.

Any way you look at it, it worked to his advantage when the main focus became draining the lake before it even became an abduction case.

 

[Considering]

SBM

Here is my point. Being kids, we did not always take the routes that were quickest, nor the ones that made the most sense. Sometimes we would take detours so we could ride by other friends houses to see if they were home. Sometimes we would circle a few times around random blocks to lengthen our ride (i.e. Mom said we could ride up to the bakery to grab a cookie but she didn't say we couldn't circle the block 4-5 times). Sometimes we went way out of our way - well, just because we were kids. Maybe we wanted to race for a block. Maybe we were side-by-side talking about something that happened in school, or complaining about siblings or mean girls - whatever. I even remember singing songs while we rode. Sometimes we even played pretend on our bikes - made believe we were on horses or were driving cars, things like that.

That's a good point. We used to do the same type of thing - take the streets that had "dips," curves, fewer stop signs, etc. CoeTrawk, just for the heck of it, what do you think would be a fun route for a kid on a bike?

It would be nice to know the route that Elizabeth took when she went on the ride with the neighbors to the lake.

 

[nikb]

I'm sorry, I should have made myself more clear.

I meant that I don't really believe that is the best case scenario.

It seems to me that some of the most permanently emotionally scarred people come out of situations where their abuser professed to love them and was seductive towards them. Survivors of abuse whose abuse was not cloaked in 'I do this because I love you' seem to fare somewhat better.

But now that you've got me thinking about it, I suddenly realised I honestly can't rank any of the possible scenarios. The ones where the girls are recovered alive are certainly better than any of the ones where they were killed.

<snipped for space>

Thanks GrainneDhu. That makes sense and I hadn't thought about it that way. I guess some freakish stranger would in a sense be easier to overcome than a friend or family member who 'loved' you. But you're right, there's no good way to "rank" possible scenarios other than #1 girls come home alive. Anything else can be dealt with after that happens.

ETA: no apology needed at all. I just wanted to understand better. Thanks for the reply.

 

[MNDad]

Not helpful input on this case, but I just want to say that if it wasn't for the horrible subject matter, I would really enjoy being part of these conversations. You people all appear to be very intelligent, admit when you weren't clear on something, debate respectfully and tend to keep personal beliefs at minimum and focus on facts.

It has gotten so bad on the interwebs that I refuse to read the comments on Msm articles because it gives me anxiety to see how the world is full of uneducated bafoons that can't stay on topic.

Sorry for the sidetrack and I just wanted to say thank you to everyone for being the way you are. I'll be back later tonight to participate.

 

[Marilynilpa]

The only reason I can think of would be that the perp is a local person, so they needed to get the bikes off their property (home or truck or van) quickly. The trail was the best place to drop the bikes off without being seen. Just Moo going with the staging of the bikes theory.

I've thought about that, too. But if the perp is local, it seems he/she/they would know of other, easier places to dump a couple of bikes. Again I come down to, why take a chance of being seen at the lake staging the bikes.

 

[MotherOcean]

Does anyone know if there have been any searches down Cedar Valley Nature Trail from where it is close to the end of Arbutus? I mean south of there and down past where it crosses River Rd.

 

[TeenyTaurus]

MNDad, if you have time, could you please do one of those cool google earth videos from the Auction shop camera, following the sidewalks ... west on Brovan, south on River Forest Road, East on Central, South on Jones and onto the bike trail as far as the double gate at the drainage pipe? I'm curious about the time that would take, but also don't know how to do bike times on maps.

In Google Maps, once you click the two general locations from one point to another, there will be a little bicycle up at the top. Just click on that and it allows you to use "bike routes," as well. You can then just drag one point to a spot on a bike path. Hope that helps.
As for times, you would need to calculate the distance and time to get MPHs. So, let's say you have a time of 6 minutes, and 1.5 miles. 60 divided by 6 time distance. (10 x 1.5 = 15) So, to travel 1.5 miles in 6 minutes, you'd have to go 15 MPH. Pretty fast on a bike...