IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #29

[otto]

I guess the "average speed" really doesn't mean much to me because depending on the "reason" for the bike ride the speed could change dramatically.

:moo:

We know that Elizabeth often cycled to Lake Avenue according to Mr Carpenter, so there's no reason to assume that when she cycled to Lake Avenue on July 13 she had any reason for cycling there other than the usual recreational ride. It sounds like the only difference between the trip on July 13 and any other trip she made was that Lyric was with her.

What happened after she and Lyric reached the Arbutus end of Lake Avenue (where Elizabeth usually turned around) is what interests me as this is where the routine was broken. Instead of looping back, it appears that the children continued on to the lake trail.

 

[SapphireSteel]

The children were last seen on Brovan at 12:23, and they were last seen on video heading West. The next location we have for the children is Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus and we have an eyewitness sighting on Lake Avenue. We know where the bikes were found.

They had to travel 1.65 miles to get from point A to B.

The children were last seen at 12.15 per Deputy Abben (spokesman).

Any other sightings remain unconfirmed.

 

[threecrazykids]

I'm looking at distances, times, adults, children and bikes because I'm curious. There are statistics regarding the average speeds of cycling children and adults.

Children (age 13 and younger) average cycling speed: 8.9 mph
Adults (age 14 and older) averate cycling speed: 9.7 mph

Based on distances, and times, it's possible to determine whether children and adults are cycling faster or slower than the average.

It seems that the cyclist was cyling much slower than the average adult, you were cycling much faster than the average adult, and I don't think that there's any way that the children could have cycled to the drainage pipe at the lake in 8 minutes ... although that is rather irrelevant since police have said that 8 minutes after they were seen on video they were still on Brovan, and 8 minutes after that they were somewhere around Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus.

Otto - can you calc for me how much time it would take a child to bike from the Auction House to Mr. Carpenter's home? lease:

I'd like you to please calc the route time from Brovan to the Evansdale Nature Trail, and down to Lake Ave corner. We know that is where Mr. Carpenter saw them so I'd like to see just how fast they could get that far assuming Lizzy knew the fastest route there.

I'm going to ASSUME they weren't riding at a "normal" pace. I'd like to speed it up 1 or 2 mph to see if maybe they were riding faster than a "normal" pace and could make it there fairly quickly down the nature trail. I'd also like to ASSUME they didn't stop fully at the cross roads...just maybe slowed down just a hair to check for cars both ways and keep on moving.

I'm not at all implying Mr. C is involved. I'm just wondering how fast their little legs could carry them as far as the "I know the way THIS far...then we'll look for the lake from there".

 

[Aymstriss]

Yea, I'm not gonna comment any further with the "bike speed, time it took to get wherever" discussion.

In my opinion, there is a time line that LE has that probably make sense and we may not know what they are until the criminal case is heard in court. (I hope)

For the ideas I'm kicking around as to what happened, I'm not sure the bike speed issue matters to me.

I just wanted to comment on the " 8 minutes to get around Meyers Lake" seemed like a really really long time!

 

[otto]

Otto - can you calc for me how much time it would take a child to bike from the Auction House to Mr. Carpenter's home? lease:

I'd like you to please calc the route time from Brovan to the Evansdale Nature Trail, and down to Lake Ave corner. We know that is where Mr. Carpenter saw them so I'd like to see just how fast they could get that far assuming Lizzy knew the fastest route there.

I'm going to ASSUME they weren't riding at a "normal" pace. I'd like to speed it up 1 or 2 mph to see if maybe they were riding faster than a "normal" pace and could make it there fairly quickly down the nature trail. I'd also like to ASSUME they didn't stop fully at the cross roads...just maybe slowed down just a hair to check for cars both ways and keep on moving.

I'm not at all implying Mr. C is involved. I'm just wondering how fast their little legs could carry them as far as the "I know the way THIS far...then we'll look for the lake from there".

It's 1.2 miles from Brovan to the corner of Lake Avenue and Gilbert. Elizabeth was riding a BMX and Lyric was riding a bike that was too large for her, so I'm not convinced that they were cycling faster than the average speed of a child cycling on a regular, well-fitting bike.

Still, if they should be travelling at 11 mph instead of 9 mph, and not changing their speed at any intersection, then

11/60 miles/minute = 1.2/x
x=6.5 minutes

We shouldn't ignore the fact that police have released a statement that the children were in the area of Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus between 12:30 and 1:00.

 

[SapphireSteel]

We don't actually know what bikes they were riding.

We know the bikes found at the lake were identified as the girls by family, but LE have not confirmed this...in fact, the issue seems to have a question mark over it in view of Abbens "all we have is two bikes sitting at the lake" comment.

 

[threecrazykids]

It's 1.2 miles from Brovan to the corner of Lake Avenue and Gilbert. Elizabeth was riding a BMX and Lyric was riding a bike that was too large for her, so I'm not convinced that they were cycling faster than the average speed of a child cycling on a regular, well-fitting bike.

Still, if they should be travelling at 11 mph instead of 9 mph, and not changing their speed at any intersection, then

11/60 miles/minute = 1.2/x
x=6.5 minutes

We shouldn't ignore the fact that police have released a statement that the children were in the area of Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus between 12:30 and 1:00.

No, I'm not ignoring the fact they were in the area. My issue with the Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus comment is the vagueness of the area mentioned.

Elmer and Gilbert intersect literally at the front of the lake. Arbutus is 3 or 4 blocks away from Elmer and Gilbert (3 if you count Arbutus starting at Lake, 4 if you count it starting at Schons St.) and is on the BACK side of the lake.

They were either at Elmer/Gilbert OR on Arbutus, but not both.

Now, they probably were in the area between those roads at some point between 12:30 and 1.

What I want to know is were they seen on Arbutus when this person saw them? Or were they at Elmer/Gilbert? Big difference between the front of the lake and the back, and there should be NO confusion between the 2 areas IMO.:twocents:

 

[SapphireSteel]

No, I'm not ignoring the fact they were in the area. My issue with the Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus comment is the vagueness of the area mentioned.

Elmer and Gilbert intersect literally at the front of the lake. Arbutus is 3 or 4 blocks away from Elmer and Gilbert (3 if you count Arbutus starting at Lake, 4 if you count it starting at Schons St.) and is on the BACK side of the lake.

They were either at Elmer/Gilbert OR on Arbutus, but not both.

Now, they probably were in the area between those roads at some point between 12:30 and 1.

What I want to know is were they seen on Arbutus when this person saw them? Or were they at Elmer/Gilbert? Big difference between the front of the lake and the back, and there should be NO confusion between the 2 areas IMO.:twocents:

The official "last seen" is 12.15 on Brovan.

No one knows where the girls got to after that.

No further alleged sightings were confirmed.

:deadhorse:

 

[threecrazykids]

We don't actually know what bikes they were riding.

We know the bikes found at the lake were identified as the girls by family, but LE have not confirmed this...in fact, the issue seems to have a question mark over it in view of Abbens "all we have is two bikes sitting at the lake" comment.

I'm still looking for the interview, but Tammy said that Drew identified the bikes at the scene. I just heard it today...I have to find the right link.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I'm still looking for the interview, but Tammy said that Drew identified the bikes at the scene. I just heard it today...I have to find the right link.

I know they were identified as the girls but Drew had no clue what the girls were riding as he was out at work when they left the house.

 

[threecrazykids]

I know they were identified as the girls but Drew had no clue what the girls were riding as he was out at work when they left the house.

What are the odds that 2 bikes that look EXACTLY like the girls bikes would be left at the lake and them NOT be the girls bikes?

You aren't thinking someone staged duplicate looking bikes are you...because that is REALLLLYYYY far fetched.

I must be missing your point.

 

[otto]

No, I'm not ignoring the fact they were in the area. My issue with the Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus comment is the vagueness of the area mentioned.

Elmer and Gilbert intersect literally at the front of the lake. Arbutus is 3 or 4 blocks away from Elmer and Gilbert (3 if you count Arbutus starting at Lake, 4 if you count it starting at Schons St.) and is on the BACK side of the lake.

They were either at Elmer/Gilbert OR on Arbutus, but not both.

Now, they probably were in the area between those roads at some point between 12:30 and 1.

What I want to know is were they seen on Arbutus when this person saw them? Or were they at Elmer/Gilbert? Big difference between the front of the lake and the back, and there should be NO confusion between the 2 areas IMO.:twocents:

Why can't they be at the intersection of Elmer/Gilbert, west on Gilbert, South on Lake and there they are on Arbutus.

I use Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus to summarize the streets that police reference ... that isn't how it is quoted in the article ... if that's what you're thinking.

 

[threecrazykids]

http://foxnewsinsider.com/2012/07/2...th-collins-plead-for-their-return/#more-91925


Here is another interview I hadn't watched (there are several out there I apparently haven't seen).

I picked up several things in the interview:

Misty says that the family had to turn over their vehicles to LE. I knew about the phones, etc, but I didn't know LE took familial vehicles.

Tammy states that LE confirmed to them (again...take Tammy's word for what you think it's worth) that the dogs DID identify the girls in the wooded area, but they wouldn't confirm anything on top of that.

Apparently LE told the family they DID have suspects, which I found interesting because in most of the interviews I had viewed, it sounded like LE told them they "had nothing". This video was posted July 22nd.

 

[otto]

What are the odds that 2 bikes that look EXACTLY like the girls bikes would be left at the lake and them NOT be the girls bikes?

You aren't thinking someone staged duplicate looking bikes are you...because that is REALLLLYYYY far fetched.

I must be missing your point.

If you're referring to the cyclist, he couldn't identify the bikes he saw. He didn't even mention that a BMX and mountain bike were on the trail ... just "two bikes". He didn't know that the girl's bikes were red and purple. He was unable to provide any info about the bikes.

 

[threecrazykids]

If you're referring to the cyclist, he couldn't identify the bikes he saw. He didn't even mention that a BMX and mountain bike were on the trail ... just "two bikes". He didn't know that the girl's bikes were red and purple. He was unable to provide any info about the bikes.

I was replying to SS post where she said the bikes weren't confirmed to be the girls. I stated that Drew identified the bikes, and was hoping that SS wasn't implying that there were 2 sets of the exact same bikes.

We all know TG said he knew nothing. My post had nothing to do with him...it was about who identified the bikes.

 

[cindersoot]

If you're referring to the cyclist, he couldn't identify the bikes he saw. He didn't even mention that a BMX and mountain bike were on the trail ... just "two bikes". He didn't know that the girl's bikes were red and purple. He was unable to provide any info about the bikes.

Do you have that link that says the bikes were red and purple.

 

[threecrazykids]

Why can't they be at the intersection of Elmer/Gilbert, west on Gilbert, South on Lake and there they are on Arbutus.

I use Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus to summarize the streets that police reference ... that isn't how it is quoted in the article ... if that's what you're thinking.

Yes, that's what I thought the reference was. I thought it was LE being vague. I've heard all the street names mentioned, I just want to know WHERE they were last seen.
I personally think it matters. Front of lake, or back.

 

[cindersoot]

If one of the bikes were indeed red, the why didn't the cyclist remember the color? Red is a stand out color the first color you notice. It is why stop signs are red.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I know they were identified as the girls but Drew had no clue what the girls were riding as he was out at work when they left the house.

Would you please outline a scenario in which the bikes at the lake were NOT the bikes the girls were riding that day?

Thanks.

 

[cindersoot]

Would you please outline a scenario in which the bikes at the lake were NOT the bikes the girls were riding that day?

Thanks.

I just don't understand why some don't believe the girls were at the lake. The dogs tracked their scents and the bikes were there, Mr.Carpenter saw them.