I have been on the fence between 2 main scenarios.
One, an 'opportunistic' roving predator, who happened to see her earlier that day, or during her jog, and followed her home, waiting for his chance to take her. Like a Keyes or a Bundy.
Or two, a 'friendly' neighbor or acquaintance, who has been waiting for his chance to get to her. He knows her schedule, knows she jogs at night, and knows she is there alone that night. He has a perfect excuse to stop by. Maybe he is a friend or co-worker of her bf or one of the room mates. Or he is a neighbor, or a friend from school.
Maybe he offers to take her to go get the car, so she just plans to take a quick ride with him, and she puts the dogs downstairs, just grabs the phone, but nothing else because she is coming right back home...
I don't feel like it is someone who is really close to her or in her inner circle. I think it is a sick predator type that has been lurking for awhile, unnoticed.