Been in this area for 40 years, although mainly with female and child victims. Have experience with perps. Also know rural areas.
1. The 'stranger' is a very rare occurrence. It happens, but mostly in movies or headline cases. Stats are unreliable because violence to prostitutes is 'stranger' violence; that happens alot.
2. Mental illness on a person's part. It occurs that a person decides to run away because of depression or mania. Generally the person would not leave glasses and personal things. But the person is not thinking logically. Her case does not argue for that.
3. The odds are someone in the area or a non-blood relative.
The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And that is not all that good.
- Sadists or sex offenders tend to escalate. Erotic desires might go from 'rough' to mean', to gag, to tie up, to use a weapon, to harm. It is like tolerance for a drug. Again a perp is not a perp until he perps. And 'accidents happen' where things get out of control.
- A 'normal' person can suffer dementia or a head injury and become deviant. That is actually not uncommon.
4. The people in rural communities often know the area like the back of their hand, and for miles and miles around. Always amazed me.
5. We could like come up with 100 suspects within a 50 mile radius. That would include hog farmers, priests, doctors, lawyers, truck drivers, bums etc. And the best liars are the most educated ones -- I have seen it.
