Well if you have a 2 story home with a toddler. Then 9 times out of 10; You have toddler toys downstairs and in view or even scattered. So the perp definitely knew that a child was in that house.
Now the home doesn't seem humongous. So I think the upstairs just may consists of a landing with one or 2 rooms right at the top. Which tells me that he would probably hear her movement up and down the stairs.
Now who doesn't check the upstairs for goods. So this had to be premeditated in order to see if anything of value was upstairs. Especially since the perp decided not to run out the house when they knew a toddler was there via toys all around at 6am or so. Jmo
I do get your points, but I kind of question if a burglar is against robbing a house that has a toddler that lives there, but isn't present. Knowing they are home and even entering the home means it was not a burglary in my mind.
So to follow the burglary theory (meaning he believe house is empty) , I think it's plausible he comes in and begins looking around for valuables - starting on the ground floor.
Does he hear her ? I really don't know. If she hears him come in and is trying to stay quiet.... hard to say. I do think eventually he heads upstairs, which is where I think the confrontation/struggle begins. imo maybe at top of a stairs if that is where the bedroom is.
How long does it take for him to go through his search of ground floor ? or does he check all rooms first ? I cant' really say I know his methods.
But if davey leaves at 6:11, what time does this perp actually enter the house ? I'm going to say at minimum it's 6:20 before he is in the house and starting to check the place out. Knowing what time the eye witness saw this guy on front stoop could get us a far better estimate. But say it's 6:20. That means 20 minutes on the ground floor ? 15 ? I really don't know, but based on the last house taking 30 minutes, 15 seems realistic if you have 2 levels ? (assuming similar houses)
So 6:35 -ish is when he heads upstairs. Depending on the location of the bedroom she is in, maybe 6:45 makes alot of sense as to when the struggle begins.
For example say there is 2nd room with the toddler and it is further from the top of the stairs than the master bedroom. I think if amanda hears this guy come in, and she goes to toddler's room - that might buy her another 5-10 minutes ? Also, that means that he gets into the master bedroom and sees no one, right ? Which to him is more evidence no one is home. If the parents aren't there, neither is the toddler.
So I have to say that it's rather plausible that this was a robbery based on the timeline. Open to hearing anything that would break this timeline logically if that was her actions.
I have to say that if I were a burglar I'd likely first ensure that the house was empty first.
Also, knowing what amanda's schedule is like makes all the difference to this, because they didn't see her leave, and if they did in fact case the place in advance, they'd know she lived there and notice that ONLY davey came out.
That's a tough one to overlook if this was a cased house and experienced burglars. Inexperienced and all bets are off about behavior along those lines.