MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #7 *Arrest*

[Kickoff61]

There is also likelihood she would cross over to the other side with vehicle so close there and then it would take him bringing her across the street back to the path, like Rocky has mentioned.

 

[Rocky1]

Bring up a good point the possibility of two perpetrators does exist and would negate my previous theory. I still don't agree with the 40 minutes timeframe of the crime though this crime could've occurred in 10 to 15 minutes in my opinion. Just because this crime may have been sexually motivated doesn't mean she was actually sexually assaulted. It could be that the perpetrator killed her before he could assault her. In which case sex offenders would still be of interest to the police

A few pages back (I believe the previous thread) you and I broke down the time frame in which this crime took place. Started with how long to drag/carry her in the woods, remove her clothing, gather wood, start the fire, strangle her, (if he did) etc, and you agreed then that it took at least a half hour. That didn't include time for a sexual assault .
If you are thinking 10-15 minutes, can you break it down, how, if it takes 4 minutes to strangle someone, the rest can be done in 6-11 minutes?
Can you explain how LE would know if a crime is sexually motivated if someone isn't sexually assaulted?

 

[Rocky1]

In general this is very good rationale for questioning why the SUV tip is not more solid and was not released earlier. I do think 100 cars in a 30 minute period Could be a great over estimation though. I am not discounting the experiences of other locals that have driven this road but I can offer my own which I would think is also valid. When I visited the crime scene about a month ago on a Friday at around the same time this crime occurred I only noted about a half a dozen cars passing in approximately 15 to 20 minutes time. It is possible that far fewer than 100 cars drove past the scene in a 30 minute window perhaps only 25. Granted this crime occurred on a Sunday and the church traffic could increase the average. Outside of the church though I would expect less traffic on a Sundayafternoon than on a Friday. But I will still stand with your point that if 25 cars drove by someone should have been able to remember the color of this SUV. This brings me to another point. we could have multiple witnesses seeing the SUV and reporting it as two or more different colors due to witness error. if that is the case then law enforcement could not be certain which witness is describing the color accurately and therefore they can only say with certainty that it was a dark color.

I agree 100 cars seems high. I was thinking more like 50 an hour.
The SUV tip has more holes in it than a screen door.
If I was the defense lawyer on this case, I'd examine every one of those witnesses about the SUV.
If that was the only thing the prosecution had to go on, my client would be home for dinner that night.
IMO LE should have never mentioned that tip without a specific time and color. To me it proves just how weak this investigation is at this point.

 

[Kickoff61]

This is a serious public safety risk and they are saying nothing. What are they doing?

 

[ForensicMass]

A few pages back (I believe the previous thread) you and I broke down the time frame in which this crime took place. Started with how long to drag/carry her in the woods, remove her clothing, gather wood, start the fire, strangle her, (if he did) etc, and you agreed then that it took at least a half hour. That didn't include time for a sexual assault .
If you are thinking 10-15 minutes, can you break it down, how, if it takes 4 minutes to strangle someone, the rest can be done in 6-11 minutes?
Can you explain how LE would know if a crime is sexually motivated if someone isn't sexually assaulted?

The victim is Avery strong fit for a sexually motivated crime. And with no obvious known enemies with other motives, it's a logical hypothesis.

 

[ForensicMass]

I agree 100 cars seems high. I was thinking more like 50 an hour.
The SUV tip has more holes in it than a screen door.
If I was the defense lawyer on this case, I'd examine every one of those witnesses about the SUV.
If that was the only thing the prosecution had to go on, my client would be home for dinner that night.
IMO LE should have never mentioned that tip without a specific time and color. To me it proves just how weak this investigation is at this point.

I agree, it seems based in desperation.

 

[Evey]

There is also likelihood she would cross over to the other side with vehicle so close there and then it would take him bringing her across the street back to the path, like Rocky has mentioned.

YEa the only way I see it happening at the path is by him parking briefly inn the other side(after seeing she started her jog) then when she switched sides of the the road to avoid the car he jumps out of nowhere cause he was waiting on the opposite side of the car. I don't see it happening at the path myef

 

[Evey]

It could have been planned as rape then murder but he could be premature so it didn't take as long cause obviously the thwh sont go question every sex offender if nothing sexual assault wise happened

 

[Rocky1]

The victim is Avery strong fit for a sexually motivated crime. And with no obvious known enemies with other motives, it's a logical hypothesis.[/QUOTE

That could be, but, to me it makes more sense that she was sexually assaulted.
Let's set that aside for a minute.
You state that this was all over in 10-15 minutes. Although I find that physically impossible, let's take that and combine it with your other theory that he shut off her phone "near" the Mountain Barn at 2:25.
We all ( or most anyway) agree that she was ambushed at the start of her run. It was reported that she left her house between 1-1:15 pm. Let's say she left at 1:15, that puts her at the path at before 1:30, even if she is walking.
using your example, she is dead at 1:45 and the SUV is gone.
Why do you think he hung around the neighborhood for 40 minutes before he drove by the Mountain Barn?

 

[Cem75]

The victim is Avery strong fit for a sexually motivated crime. And with no obvious known enemies with other motives, it's a logical hypothesis.[/QUOTE

That could be, but, to me it makes more sense that she was sexually assaulted.
Let's set that aside for a minute.
You state that this was all over in 10-15 minutes. Although I find that physically impossible, let's take that and combine it with your other theory that he shut off her phone "near" the Mountain Barn at 2:25.
We all ( or most anyway) agree that she was ambushed at the start of her run. It was reported that she left her house between 1-1:15 pm. Let's say she left at 1:15, that puts her at the path at before 1:30, even if she is walking.
using your example, she is dead at 1:45 and the SUV is gone.
Why do you think he hung around the neighborhood for 40 minutes before he drove by the Mountain Barn?

could he have gone back for her phone, thinking it would be more difficult for her to be found?

 

[Rocky1]

could he have gone back for her phone, thinking it would be more difficult for her to be found?

Could be.
That would be twice the SUV is parked along BSR at the same spot, unless you use Kickoffs theory that he was on foot/bike and drove back later.
Why would he destroy evidence like her clothing, shoes, but leave perhaps the most important piece of evidence there?

 

[Gussified]

Re: the color of the SUV...when i was shopping for an SUV recently, the salesman pointed to one on the lot and I said, no I don't want black, and he said that one's green. Totally looked black to me. Had to really get close and look at it at different angles to see that it was, in fact, green. I can see how LE could get conflicting reports on color.


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[Lawdini01234]

Very risky indeed.

I go back to what one of the locals said on here some weeks back about traffic on BSR. Although from the pictures, it looks like a sleepy back-road with minimal traffic, the local on here stated that he's driven on the road six or more times since the murder (including on a Sunday) and a few cars were on it each time. If we take that at face-value, and the perpetrator was there for at least 30 minutes, that's upwards of 100 cars that would have seen the SUV (maybe even more as Sunday was a church day).

If that was the case, wouldn't we have more positive sightings of it passed onto law enforcement (and therefore law enforcement would have released this lead/tip in the weeks after the murder) and wouldn't at least a few of the witnesses been able to name the SUV's colour? Instead all we have is a tip released four months after the murder, describing the vehicle as a 'dark SUV'. I just think if it was parked there for 30 minutes, the sightings would be higher in number (and therefore the lead/tip released earlier) and the description of the vehicle would be much more specific.

I may be wrong but I think there may have been a memorial service for someone in town on the day of Vanessa's murder. I can't recall the time but would imagine an increased amount of traffic on that road on that particular day.

Might of been ThinkHard who mentioned it a ways back. Not sure if that would be relevant in anyway.

 

[searunner]

Re: the color of the SUV...when i was shopping for an SUV recently, the salesman pointed to one on the lot and I said, no I don't want black, and he said that one's green. Totally looked black to me. Had to really get close and look at it at different angles to see that it was, in fact, green. I can see how LE could get conflicting reports on color.


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Totally agree. Not only are there some extremely dark greens, I've seen some navy blues that look almost black, esp. in certain lighting. Then, of course, there is the very dark gray shade.

On top of that, there's the fact that an unbelievably high percentage of men (8%) are color blind -- which really means color deficient. Most of them can't recognize red or green, so if they were asked what color the SUV was and it was a dark red or green, they'd likely say just "dark." But color blindness also comes in other forms.

So, I have no issue with LE using just "dark" instead of specifying an exact color. However, I am hung up on them waiting three months to release this info. If the SUV lead was that strong, it would *almost* surely be released earlier, IMO.

 

[Evey]

The victim is Avery strong fit for a sexually motivated crime. And with no obvious known enemies with other motives, it's a logical hypothesis.[/QUOTE

That could be, but, to me it makes more sense that she was sexually assaulted.
Let's set that aside for a minute.
You state that this was all over in 10-15 minutes. Although I find that physically impossible, let's take that and combine it with your other theory that he shut off her phone "near" the Mountain Barn at 2:25.
We all ( or most anyway) agree that she was ambushed at the start of her run. It was reported that she left her house between 1-1:15 pm. Let's say she left at 1:15, that puts her at the path at before 1:30, even if she is walking.
using your example, she is dead at 1:45 and the SUV is gone.
Why do you think he hung around the neighborhood for 40 minutes before he drove by the Mountain Barn?

Thus may sound silly but I still there any possible way she was running where's the phone was shut off and that's where he attacked and he turned it off instantly? I mean to me this dude seems smartand that to me phone wise would be the smartest option. Not sure time wise f it would fit in with the start or end of the run or distance wise. I just don't feel like she was attacked near the path and that we are meant to think she was so we don't look in other areas. I personally see it possible she's assaulted in the vehicle or his home or some building and maybe the path but I don't see someone risking that right there in the open and even though the cops never said if the killer drove down the path or not I find it more likely he backed down started the fire then left. Idk where the assault happens I just see the attack area being somewhere maybe even just farther down the road or something besides the spot most would assume was it. So what if the killer lives near the place the phone went off and that's where she got attacked?

 

[Evey]

I may be wrong but I think there may have been a memorial service for someone in town on the day of Vanessa's murder. I can't recall the time but would imagine an increased amount of traffic on that road on that particular day.

Might of been ThinkHard who mentioned it a ways back. Not sure if that would be relevant in anyway.

What if the killer came to town for the funeral and noticed Vanessa was around and was like fibally I can kill her!
In theory if this person came to town for it and didn't their own car they did have access to someone else's or a rental.

 

[ForensicMass]

The victim is Avery strong fit for a sexually motivated crime. And with no obvious known enemies with other motives, it's a logical hypothesis.[/QUOTE

That could be, but, to me it makes more sense that she was sexually assaulted.
Let's set that aside for a minute.
You state that this was all over in 10-15 minutes. Although I find that physically impossible, let's take that and combine it with your other theory that he shut off her phone "near" the Mountain Barn at 2:25.
We all ( or most anyway) agree that she was ambushed at the start of her run. It was reported that she left her house between 1-1:15 pm. Let's say she left at 1:15, that puts her at the path at before 1:30, even if she is walking.
using your example, she is dead at 1:45 and the SUV is gone.
Why do you think he hung around the neighborhood for 40 minutes before he drove by the Mountain Barn?

Very very good point. I'll amend my theory a bit based on this. If she leaves at 115, is attacked at 1:25 and phone is near mountain barn at 2:25. There's a hour in there. I will need to think about this. Thanks for pointing that out. I'll get back on this.

 

[Mainely16]

What if the killer came to town for the funeral and noticed Vanessa was around and was like fibally I can kill her!
In theory if this person came to town for it and didn't their own car they did have access to someone else's or a rental.

Just to clarify ...In this scenario, the murderer a. Was from out of town or just currently living out of town, but is from Princeton? b. Came to Princeton for a (possible) funeral service, having no idea VM was in town c. Noticed Vanessa somewhere around town over the weekend d. Had wanted to kill her for a long time and decided this would be the time and place and e. Borrowed or rented a car (leaving a very easy "footprint") to track and find a place to murder her?

Are you suggesting he knew her from long ago and had always wanted to take her life, making this a case of happenstance?

 

[Kickoff61]

I don't see it as someone she knew from long ago. JMO If there is no indication of problems before, stalking, harassment or something close friends or family would know about, etc. Someone waiting from long ago to do this now, just doesn't seem to fit.

 

[Kickoff61]

Thus may sound silly but I still there any possible way she was running where's the phone was shut off and that's where he attacked and he turned it off instantly? I mean to me this dude seems smartand that to me phone wise would be the smartest option. Not sure time wise f it would fit in with the start or end of the run or distance wise. I just don't feel like she was attacked near the path and that we are meant to think she was so we don't look in other areas. I personally see it possible she's assaulted in the vehicle or his home or some building and maybe the path but I don't see someone risking that right there in the open and even though the cops never said if the killer drove down the path or not I find it more likely he backed down started the fire then left. Idk where the assault happens I just see the attack area being somewhere maybe even just farther down the road or something besides the spot most would assume was it. So what if the killer lives near the place the phone went off and that's where she got attacked?

The scenario of her being killed somewhere else on the route or someone's property and then brought to the path for the fire is another possibility addressed before.

I think someone mentioned wording on the family site was worded in such a way that she was killed at the path location, but I 'think' that was a media article from their site?

I believe LE has only reported finding her there.

So finding her there is not proof she was killed there.

I think that leaves it open still to a few possibilities of the SUV being involved part time. Such as : 2 perps... dropping one off and picking up, the killer doing it there , then coming back in SUV briefly for a reason, or she was killed on her route somewhere else with SUV used to bring her there.