Manorville Bodies: A Second Killer? Latest Remains found 02/17/2012

[inspctrgadget]

attached items should give everyone an idea of the REALITY of what happens in nor easters with tidal surge in and around the north side of ocean parkway.

If Jane Doe 9098's remains were even a few yards off the parkway (at some locations) the remains could have been washed away, as the parkway had been in danger of breaching during similar storms.

Those "islands" weren't stopping anything floating on the surface in a plastic bag.

I think it is possible that there are other remains prior to jane doe 9098 (late 1995) that may never be recovered due to the storms from 1989 - 1996.

And as for the 4000+ cubis yards of debris left on the beaches, if that much debris can drift and end up there......

The distance between the points Zach's Bay and Blue Point is approx. 35 miles (via the channels). 35 miles = 30.4 nautical miles. Time elapsed between January 6-April 20 is 104 days or 2,496 hours. So the estimated current speed is:
30.4 nm/2496 hr = 0.012 nm/hr = 0.012 knots

The longshore current is est. 1 knot. If the bag was neutrally buoyant, it would have made it from Jones Inlet to Blue Point (est. 26 nm) in approx. 26 hours. So the idea that the storm was the cause of the dislodgement requires the bag to bobble around in the bay for 103 days, or it requires it to lumber across the bottom at an extremely slow rate. The currents in the channels are probably 3-5 knots on average. I'm not saying its impossible, I'm just saying it's unlikely that the storm is related.

If we did a little experiment where we put a bunch of meat in a bag, threw into the Jones Channel near Zach's Bay with a GPS attached, I think it would end up at Blue Point in something like 3-5 days, 15 days max. Sure it could get hung up on something, but if it did, it would be fish and crab food in absolutely no time. There would be nothing left after a week.

Also, the fact that toenail polish was present concerns me. I'm not sure how much would be left after 104 days in saltwater environment.

I still think it's much easier to assume the SK made the dump sometime around April 15, dividing the head on the land and the legs in the water. After reading about the discovery of the legs only a few days later, the M.O. was updated with the "land-only" rule.

Remind me why it matters anyway? If your theory is true, how does this inform us? What relevant information does it provide? That he was familiar with the access road? I can accept that just based on JD#10's location, and think that you pointing that out is great. Is the date important for some reason?

 

[Peter Brendt]

The only thing that seems different to me is that some were dismembered, some were not. And that can be explained as a change in M.O., which is not uncommon. Like Pat Brown said, a SK may cut themselves during a dismembering, or perhaps it was too messy, and they opted to cease that part of their M.O.

We don't know what the ritual was, other than the probability that there was some element of "picking up" or "luring" the women. It seems like he did some of that in person, some of that online.

The sadistic phone calls are also different, but that only happened for sure in 1/4 instances among the GB4.

Ocean Parkway is a 15.59-mile parkway. If you consider that both west and east lanes have a shoulder, we're talking about 31.18 miles. The dump sites were all confined to (or can be associated with) a 2 mile section on the north side, with the exception of JD-9098 and Shannan Gilbert. So we're talking about a 6.4% chance of multiple serial killers picking that exact stretch.

Pretty slim.

Fine lets go in the details once more:

Atlantic City:
A fast acting perp with a constant two-weeks circle, staging of bodies with strong hints in the religious corner, sudden stop after he proved himself with four kills. Method of killing is first asphyxiation, later controlled strangling, indicating a quick honing cycle.

LISK:
Slow ramp up but no rookie, no staging but planting the body in a drive-by trophy yard. Method of killing is almost constant and given that there is average a year between kills, the honing circle is about factor 25 or 26 longer than for AC. So it's absolute impossible, that AC and LISK are the same person because he would need to slow down his kill rate to 1/25 of what AC had or in other words, he would go on 4% speed.
For AC to change into LISK, it would not only be necessary to slow down to 4% of his old speed, he also would need to abandon the staging, which, since it's including strong hints on religion, would make him need to abandon not only the staging but also the his religion entirely which is the reason behind the AC stagings. So - no way!

Manorville:
Manorville was a dismemberer from the start and Jane Doe 6's body was found in 2000. That places him not only seven years before LISK but also before AC. So if Manorville should be AC, he would have, for some weeks only, speed up to about 75 times his usual speed, give up dismembering, change from sadist to power assertive offender, and his own brand of staging, which is in all aspects different from AC in the first place. So for Manorville= AC - no way either!
Can Manorville be the LISK? Well, he would need to abandon what defines him, a psychopath/sadist, speed up three or four times, de-escalate in his violence and start to build a trophy garden, after he had his own collection already stashed in form of preserved body parts for years. In short, he would have to abandon all that made him who he is to become something entirely new to fulfill tastes, he hadn't in the first place. Even more, he would have to develop a split personality to go into competitive behavior with himself, as he did when he dropped more body parts right near to LISK's trophy garden. So, by all means Manorville=LISK -> No way!

If you look at the details that make the bigger part of the signature and ask why they do what they do in the way they do it, there are too profound differences to put them in one box just because they killed and dropped bodies in approximately the same area (and same area means for the sake of the one killer theory one big and one giant urban center plus hundreds of thousands of square miles between AC and Gilgo Beach).

 

[inspctrgadget]

From my understanding, there are quite a few differences. For one, the Manorville SK started a lot earlier. If he was the same as the Gilgo Beach SK, he would probably be in his 50's by now. Not that it's not possible, but it's not as likely and it doesn't fit the "profile."

Secondly, as another poster said on this thread earlier on, you don't get less evolved as time goes by, you get more evolved. The Gilgo Beach killings seem immature in comparison to the Manorville SK.

Third, the dismemberment and the keeping of the body parts for all those years is completely different from the Gilgo Beach killer. The Gilgo Beach killer just dumped his victims.

Fourth, if they were the same killer, why would the SK (who has been keeping the body parts all this time according to the 1 killer theory) then go back to where the police already found his dumping grounds and put the body parts in the same spot? Unless he's just toying with the police (which is possible), he would find another new spot that's unknown to get rid of the body parts he's saved for so long and is now getting rid of to avoid suspicion.

Although only the killer(s) themselves know for sure, I think it's much more likely to be the work of at least 2 killers and the Manorville SK purposely put the body parts in Gilgo to show the Gilgo killer he's the "man" in charge.

1. The average age that a SK begins killing is 27.5. So if the fist murder occurred in 1996, the serial killer is 42 years old (my POI is 41).

2. I disagree that the Gilgo murders seem less evolved. To me they seem highly efficient compared to the earlier murders.

3. We don't know how long he kept the body parts. My belief is that he dumped them in Manorville and Cedar Beach on the very same day. But we just don't know.

4. The "1-killer theory" does not require keeping body parts for any period of time. There is nothing that I'm aware of that suggests this was the case.

I highly doubt there's any type of serial killer competition going on here.

 

[Bellaneph]

Fine lets go in the details once more:

Atlantic City:
A fast acting perp with a constant two-weeks circle, staging of bodies with strong hints in the religious corner, sudden stop after he proved himself with four kills. Method of killing is first asphyxiation, later controlled strangling, indicating a quick honing cycle.

LISK:
Slow ramp up but no rookie, no staging but planting the body in a drive-by trophy yard. Method of killing is almost constant and given that there is average a year between kills, the honing circle is about factor 25 or 26 longer than for AC. So it's absolute impossible, that AC and LISK are the same person because he would need to slow down his kill rate to 1/25 of what AC had or in other words, he would go on 4% speed.
For AC to change into LISK, it would not only be necessary to slow down to 4% of his old speed, he also would need to abandon the staging, which, since it's including strong hints on religion, would make him need to abandon not only the staging but also the his religion entirely which is the reason behind the AC stagings. So - no way!

Manorville:
Manorville was a dismemberer from the start and Jane Doe 6's body was found in 2000. That places him not only seven years before LISK but also before AC. So if Manorville should be AC, he would have, for some weeks only, speed up to about 75 times his usual speed, give up dismembering, change from sadist to power assertive offender, and his own brand of staging, which is in all aspects different from AC in the first place. So for Manorville= AC - no way either!
Can Manorville be the LISK? Well, he would need to abandon what defines him, a psychopath/sadist, speed up three or four times, de-escalate in his violence and start to build a trophy garden, after he had his own collection already stashed in form of preserved body parts for years. In short, he would have to abandon all that made him who he is to become something entirely new to fulfill tastes, he hadn't in the first place. Even more, he would have to develop a split personality to go into competitive behavior with himself, as he did when he dropped more body parts right near to LISK's trophy garden. So, by all means Manorville=LISK -> No way!

If you look at the details that make the bigger part of the signature and ask why they do what they do in the way they do it, there are too profound differences to put them in one box just because they killed and dropped bodies in approximately the same area (and same area means for the sake of the one killer theory one big and one giant urban center plus hundreds of thousands of square miles between AC and Gilgo Beach).

Agreed^^

 

[truthspider]

The distance between the points Zach's Bay and Blue Point is approx. 35 miles (via the channels). 35 miles = 30.4 nautical miles. Time elapsed between January 6-April 20 is 104 days or 2,496 hours. So the estimated current speed is:
30.4 nm/2496 hr = 0.012 nm/hr = 0.012 knots

The longshore current is est. 1 knot. If the bag was neutrally buoyant, it would have made it from Jones Inlet to Blue Point (est. 26 nm) in approx. 26 hours. So the idea that the storm was the cause of the dislodgement requires the bag to bobble around in the bay for 103 days, or it requires it to lumber across the bottom at an extremely slow rate. The currents in the channels are probably 3-5 knots on average. I'm not saying its impossible, I'm just saying it's unlikely that the storm is related.

If we did a little experiment where we put a bunch of meat in a bag, threw into the Jones Channel near Zach's Bay with a GPS attached, I think it would end up at Blue Point in something like 3-5 days, 15 days max. Sure it could get hung up on something, but if it did, it would be fish and crab food in absolutely no time. There would be nothing left after a week.

Also, the fact that toenail polish was present concerns me. I'm not sure how much would be left after 104 days in saltwater environment.

I still think it's much easier to assume the SK made the dump sometime around April 15, dividing the head on the land and the legs in the water. After reading about the discovery of the legs only a few days later, the M.O. was updated with the "land-only" rule.

Remind me why it matters anyway? If your theory is true, how does this inform us? What relevant information does it provide? That he was familiar with the access road? I can accept that just based on JD#10's location, and think that you pointing that out is great. Is the date important for some reason?

not very important at the present time but may become important as other info becomes available. I was giving my argument a foundation because seaslug said nothing could would ever drift from jones island to bluepoint beach...laughable.

 

[Peter Brendt]

1. The average age that a SK begins killing is 27.5. So if the fist murder occurred in 1996, the serial killer is 42 years old (my POI is 41).

Slow down a little, will you? Bundy started probably with 14-15, Dahmer with 16. Only because you have some overaged guys like Albright or Shipmen in your base set, it doesn't mean, that the majority of them starts at 27.5 years of age. That is misunderstood mathematics. I can put your feet in freaking cold water and boild your hands and you have no reason to complain, because in the average, you have a pretty agreeable temperature around you.

2. I disagree that the Gilgo murders seem less evolved. To me they seem highly efficient compared to the earlier murders.

In a way, both are pretty efficient to fulfill what the killer wants from them. Which indicates once more, they have different fantasies to fulfill, therefore they have two different persons.

3. We don't know how long he kept the body parts. My belief is that he dumped them in Manorville and Cedar Beach on the very same day. But we just don't know.

That would be 2000 for Jane Doe's legs. So after 11 years, you think, there was enough tissue on them to talk about scars? And color on her toenails?
For Jessica Taylor, we talk about eight years in the weather for her head and arms because her torso was found in 2003. Read the details in the descriptions and tell em, how this would be possible if they would have body parts, which decomposed there for years. So, by reasons of technical possibility, I can't see the parts were dropped the same day. At least it was years later and probably only AFTER the GB4 were discovered. Which would be also consistent with the usual behavior of staging dismemberers.

4. The "1-killer theory" does not require keeping body parts for any period of time. There is nothing that I'm aware of that suggests this was the case.

You're right, the theory doesn't demand keeping body parts. The usual pathology of staging dismemberers does and the simple technical fact, that the body parts couldn't been out there for so many years.

I highly doubt there's any type of serial killer competition going on here.

That is your good right. It was also the good right of the LAPD in the Hillside Strangler case, so they let Alcala run. It was also the good right of the involved LE authorities in the Bundy case, so they simply booked Kathy Devine on Bundy. Hey, they were lucky, they got the real killer of Devine much later and some kills after anyway. Ifyou look to Texas, they had over the last 50 years always more than one active in the Houston area. It's nothing but a rumor, that there is no chance, there is always only one. Reality tells otherwise. Most of the time, they just don't care for each other or try, like Alcala did, to join the other's club. But as soon as you had one of those staging dismemberers in the mix, there is a good chance, there is competition that ends at some point with the sudden end of the series of that other guy. Hey, but that is real world experience, you have a right to your doubts.

 

[inspctrgadget]

Fine lets go in the details once more:

Atlantic City:
A fast acting perp with a constant two-weeks circle, staging of bodies with strong hints in the religious corner, sudden stop after he proved himself with four kills. Method of killing is first asphyxiation, later controlled strangling, indicating a quick honing cycle.

LISK:
Slow ramp up but no rookie, no staging but planting the body in a drive-by trophy yard. Method of killing is almost constant and given that there is average a year between kills, the honing circle is about factor 25 or 26 longer than for AC. So it's absolute impossible, that AC and LISK are the same person because he would need to slow down his kill rate to 1/25 of what AC had or in other words, he would go on 4% speed.
For AC to change into LISK, it would not only be necessary to slow down to 4% of his old speed, he also would need to abandon the staging, which, since it's including strong hints on religion, would make him need to abandon not only the staging but also the his religion entirely which is the reason behind the AC stagings. So - no way!

Manorville:
Manorville was a dismemberer from the start and Jane Doe 6's body was found in 2000. That places him not only seven years before LISK but also before AC. So if Manorville should be AC, he would have, for some weeks only, speed up to about 75 times his usual speed, give up dismembering, change from sadist to power assertive offender, and his own brand of staging, which is in all aspects different from AC in the first place. So for Manorville= AC - no way either!
Can Manorville be the LISK? Well, he would need to abandon what defines him, a psychopath/sadist, speed up three or four times, de-escalate in his violence and start to build a trophy garden, after he had his own collection already stashed in form of preserved body parts for years. In short, he would have to abandon all that made him who he is to become something entirely new to fulfill tastes, he hadn't in the first place. Even more, he would have to develop a split personality to go into competitive behavior with himself, as he did when he dropped more body parts right near to LISK's trophy garden. So, by all means Manorville=LISK -> No way!

If you look at the details that make the bigger part of the signature and ask why they do what they do in the way they do it, there are too profound differences to put them in one box just because they killed and dropped bodies in approximately the same area (and same area means for the sake of the one killer theory one big and one giant urban center plus hundreds of thousands of square miles between AC and Gilgo Beach).

I'm sure you've heard the phrase "When in Rome, do as the Romans do"? This could be the reason for the rapid murder rate in AC. My sense is that this wasn't a local. He was however in a "comfort zone", and that may just mean that he was away from his family for a month in AC and was in the middle of what he perceived as a "den of iniquity." It's like going to Las Vegas - you're going to misbehave more than you normally do. Hence the phrase "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas."

I also disagree that there was any significant "staging" in Atlantic City that could be recognized as such. They were all found in a drainage ditch. That they were facing the same direction could simply mean that he put the bodies in his car the same way each time, and then took them out the same way. I am not aware of any obvious religious connotation other than that. I'm also not seeing any obvious escalation in violence, and there is nothing I'm aware of that suggests body parts were kept around for any length of time.

I do agree with you though that there is quite some distance between LI and AC. Also between Cedar Beach and Manorville. But AC is a pretty common destination for New Yorkers. I've been working on a theory that the SK is a duck hunter given a common connection between Cedar Beach and the specific area of Manorville where those victims were found. I recently discovered that the bay adjacent to the location where the AC victims were found is one of the top waterfowl hunting areas of the Atlantic Flyway.

Combine that with the fact that the duck hunting season is in November (AC victims discovered in November 2006) and there's a boat launch ramp down the street from the motel where these victims were found. Its possible his "trophies" are being left in areas where the perp hunts, allowing him to return year after year. AC was a bit sloppier, and he didn't really care about perfect concealment.

And burlap is used extensively in waterfowl hunting. Think "bag limits". Camouflage.

 

[Bellaneph]

1. The average age that a SK begins killing is 27.5. So if the fist murder occurred in 1996, the serial killer is 42 years old (my POI is 41).

2. I disagree that the Gilgo murders seem less evolved. To me they seem highly efficient compared to the earlier murders.

3. We don't know how long he kept the body parts. My belief is that he dumped them in Manorville and Cedar Beach on the very same day. But we just don't know.

4. The "1-killer theory" does not require keeping body parts for any period of time. There is nothing that I'm aware of that suggests this was the case.

I highly doubt there's any type of serial killer competition going on here.

I'm not saying it's not possible for it to be 1 killer, just given what we know and the profiles of each of the different "areas," it just doesn't seem plausible for it to be 1 killer. The fact that they found remains in Manorville in 2003 and then the rest of the parts in 2011 lead me to believe the killer kept the parts. I'm under the impression they were not fully decomposed which would be impossible if the SK dumped them both on the same day in different places back in 2003 (and no one found them until 2011).

Also, the police had searched the Gilgo Beach area in Dec 2010 and they didn't find the partial remains. I suppose it's possible they just missed them. But if the remains were not completely decomposed (and I heard they weren't), that would mean they were placed there by someone around March/April 2011, not 2003.

 

[inspctrgadget]

Slow down a little, will you? Bundy started probably with 14-15, Dahmer with 16. Only because you have some overaged guys like Albright or Shipmen in your base set, it doesn't mean, that the majority of them starts at 27.5 years of age. That is misunderstood mathematics. I can put your feet in freaking cold water and boild your hands and you have no reason to complain, because in the average, you have a pretty agreeable temperature around you.



In a way, both are pretty efficient to fulfill what the killer wants from them. Which indicates once more, they have different fantasies to fulfill, therefore they have two different persons.




That would be 2000 for Jane Doe's legs. So after 11 years, you think, there was enough tissue on them to talk about scars? And color on her toenails?
For Jessica Taylor, we talk about eight years in the weather for her head and arms because her torso was found in 2003. Read the details in the descriptions and tell em, how this would be possible if they would have body parts, which decomposed there for years. So, by reasons of technical possibility, I can't see the parts were dropped the same day. At least it was years later and probably only AFTER the GB4 were discovered. Which would be also consistent with the usual behavior of staging dismemberers.



You're right, the theory doesn't demand keeping body parts. The usual pathology of staging dismemberers does and the simple technical fact, that the body parts couldn't been out there for so many years.



That is your good right. It was also the good right of the LAPD in the Hillside Strangler case, so they let Alcala run. It was also the good right of the involved LE authorities in the Bundy case, so they simply booked Kathy Devine on Bundy. Hey, they were lucky, they got the real killer of Devine much later and some kills after anyway. Ifyou look to Texas, they had over the last 50 years always more than one active in the Houston area. It's nothing but a rumor, that there is no chance, there is always only one. Reality tells otherwise. Most of the time, they just don't care for each other or try, like Alcala did, to join the other's club. But as soon as you had one of those staging dismemberers in the mix, there is a good chance, there is competition that ends at some point with the sudden end of the series of that other guy. Hey, but that is real world experience, you have a right to your doubts.

As far as age...

Characteristics of the Serial Killer
According to Hickey's 1997 database of approximately 399 serial killers, the average age of the murderer at the time of the first killing was 27.5 years, and they typically were white males.

You cited Jane Doe 2000's toenails and scar discussion. Those details were for Jane Doe 9098 whose legs washed ashore in 1996. I assume she was killed shortly prior to the discovery of her legs on April 20, 1996.

Regarding the victim from 2000, Jane Doe #6:
"To narrow the focus this woman would have been last seen alive in the late summer or fall in 2000…Consider that this woman may have been working as a prostitute in New York City during that time…This woman may have had a tattoo or other identifiable characteristic on her right ankle," Dormer said.

I am not going to read this as "her ankle must have been stored in a freezer and only deposited in Cedar Beach as part of some serial killer competition." It's entirely possible that her right ankle was recovered in Manorville among the bag of remains in 2000.

Regarding Jessica Taylor, she was identified because D.C. police recognized a partial tattoo recovered in 2003 from her hip/torso area. There wasn't much decomposition at all.

As far as your typical "Staging Dismemberers", isn't the "staging" really just a way of shocking the public or taunting police? We didn't see ANY of that here that I can see. And we don't know how Jane Doe #10, JD-9098, Jane Doe #6 and Jessica Taylor died. It very well could be strangulation/asphyxiation.

I think some of your some of your facts and follow-on assumptions are wrong. I'm not discounting what you're saying, I'm just not seeing the same things as you.

 

[snapdragon2]

I casually said, by the way she was murdered, because it seemed as if you were having "that debate" about their being deep enough water for SG to drown in 100 ft from the parkway behind a serial killers house. So instead of taking such questions too seriously, I just say "she was murdered."

I would argue that it is more conclusive that SG was murdered than most of the other victims. For all we know some of the other "victims" all died for some reason or another and our perp was into stealing cadavers then having his fun with them. SG called 911 and told various people they were trying to kill me then expired, which raises my definition of certainty.

If you have read any of my posts over the last year, I obviously think there's a connection and pretty much believe she was murdered. But I'm trying to stay open to other possibilities. Talking about Oak Island reminded me of what happened to the marshland there while I was there, and I mentioned it as an aside because there has been an ongoing debate elsewhere about how deep the water was the night Shannan went missing, or indeed if there was any water at all (e.g. by the way, for what it's worth, this was my experience in a similar place - not sure if they can be compared.)

With all due respect, sometimes your posts can come across as condescending. I think we who post on this site probably all pride ourselves on our intelligence, so any hint of that (condescension) doesn't go over well. I'm just sayin'.

 

[Peter Brendt]

I'm sure you've heard the phrase "When in Rome, do as the Romans do"? This could be the reason for the rapid murder rate in AC. My sense is that this wasn't a local. He was however in a "comfort zone", and that may just mean that he was away from his family for a month in AC and was in the middle of what he perceived as a "den of iniquity." It's like going to Las Vegas - you're going to misbehave more than you normally do. Hence the phrase "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas."

Well, that would apply if AC would be full of serial killers who kill there a weekend or so ... but otherwise ... too bad, you can't see me grin. I was in Rome several times, but not in Vegas. For Rome, I can say, it's impossible to behave like a Roman for an outsider.
Serial killers kill because they have reasons. Most sane persons wouldn't accept those reasons as real or even "reasonable", but for them they are both. And different serial killers often have different reasons. That is, why, opposite to common belief, most SKs proved pretty useless as helpers in SK investigations. Now, if you take any SK from the past and plant him somewhere else, his kill rate wouldn't go up but down. He is unfamiliar with the area, the hang outs, he doesn't know where to drop a body and has to find a place first. That is, why you "constructed" a serial killer out of his comfort zone ans at the same time in a comfort zone. Which is technically impossible. Either he lived in AC years before, but not too many years before or he would run into the inevitable changes of scenery, then he would have killed years before there. But ... no bodies, no older cold cases. Or he was unfamiliar with the area, never lived there, never spent much time there. Then he couldn't uphold that fast rhythm. The will to kill never can't supersede the technical possibility to kill.

I also disagree that there was any significant "staging" in Atlantic City that could be recognized as such. They were all found in a drainage ditch. That they were facing the same direction could simply mean that he put the bodies in his car the same way each time, and then took them out the same way. I am not aware of any obvious religious connotation other than that. I'm also not seeing any obvious escalation in violence, and there is nothing I'm aware of that suggests body parts were kept around for any length of time.

Not in the AC case, those bodies were complete. They were all face the same direction, all on the belly, all without shoes. So you have to ignore THREE details, not only one, to make you statement you don't see it to be believable. Tell me, are you willing to ignore THREE details just to cling on this theory? Well, how about FOUR? The kill speed? How about FIVE? The obvious quick honing in his kill method? How about SIX? The different target groups of LISK and AC? How many details are you willing to ignore? That would determine the point at which your statement "you are not aware" starts to get a funny touch.
And yes, the body parts ... Okay, JD6 was found what? Less than a mile away from the GB4? So first question, why wasn't she found in the first search? Maybe because her partial remains weren't there at the time?
And why were her remains so well preserved after they had allegedly lain there for eleven years ... which would her put out there also during Truthspider's famous storm, right?
And compare. The Asian male, which hasn't been out there for a shorter time than 11 years, he is far more decomposed than the partial remains of JD6 and even Jessica Taylor, whose remains have been there allegedly for eight years. The child was so far decomposed they weren't even sure, they had human remains there, but JD6's legs, almost pristine. Isn't that great? Especially, since both were probably killed at the same time, for JD6 is the mother of the child, right? Well, you can pretend to be not aware or not to see, but then ... it's still there.

I do agree with you though that there is quite some distance between LI and AC. Also between Cedar Beach and Manorville. But AC is a pretty common destination for New Yorkers. I've been working on a theory that the SK is a duck hunter given a common connection between Cedar Beach and the specific area of Manorville where those victims were found. I recently discovered that the bay adjacent to the location where the AC victims were found is one of the top waterfowl hunting areas of the Atlantic Flyway.

Sorry, here, I have to bow out. I have no idea about duck hunting. Ask me, when it comes to duck grilling. But seriously, ducks fly around, I can see that point. But hunters, at least if duck hunters have anything in common with other kinds of hunters, I've met, have their preferred hunting grounds. They wouldn't fly around like the ducks. So right now, I would see from your theory, that your suspect is rather a duck than a duck hunter. But maybe I got this all wrong.

Combine that with the fact that the duck hunting season is in November (AC victims discovered in November 2006) and there's a boat launch ramp down the street from the motel where these victims were found. Its possible his "trophies" are being left in areas where the perp hunts, allowing him to return year after year. AC was a bit sloppier, and he didn't really care about perfect concealment.

If your one and only killer is a duck hunter hunting other things than ducks during the duck hunting season, then why did LISK kill always between June and September? I don't think, that's all duck season, but I can look it up. However, I disagree with tour "he was sloppier in AC" idea. The staging was the most elaborate of all three cases. The killer in AC was a lot of things, but not sloppy. As a matter of fact, I think, he in his degree of organization at least on the same level as LISK and maybe even on Manorville's level. Only his murders show off a little more hot rage instead of cold rage as in Manorville, that lets him appear different.

And burlap is used extensively in waterfowl hunting. Think "bag limits". Camouflage.

Well, that's at least one valid point. Of course, there are a lot other professions and sparetime activities using also burlap, but well, it's a point. You know, people once thought, Rifkin maybe was a gas station attendant because he used for some of his disposal acts old empty oil barrels?

As far as I see, you have a theory but you can't make any of the behavioral patterns bend enough to make them fit to your theory. Guess, that means, you have to work more on it.
Are you on the phone on Sunday?

 

[Aleph]

Secondly, as another poster said on this thread earlier on, you don't get less evolved as time goes by, you get more evolved. The Gilgo Beach killings seem immature in comparison to the Manorville SK.

I see it the other way around, particularly the dismemberment of Jessica Taylor and the subsequent mutilation of her tattoo. Dismember body, maybe in a panic to prevent identification. Whoops, forgot the tattoo! So he slices at the tattoo with a razor blade, but lacks the skill to actually mutilate it beyond recognition or completely remove it. Removing a tattoo can't be any grosser than lopping off someone's head and hands, so maybe he was getting grossed out by all this dismembering?

The killing of Jessica Taylor shows disorganization, fear, and inexperience. Manorville was fumbling.

 

[SherlockHomes]

I see it the other way around, particularly the dismemberment of Jessica Taylor and the subsequent mutilation of her tattoo. Dismember body, maybe in a panic to prevent identification. Whoops, forgot the tattoo! So he slices at the tattoo with a razor blade, but lacks the skill to actually mutilate it beyond recognition or completely remove it. Removing a tattoo can't be any grosser than lopping off someone's head and hands, so maybe he was getting grossed out by all this dismembering?

The killing of Jessica Taylor shows disorganization, fear, and inexperience. Manorville was fumbling.

and yet JT is the only id of all the bodies dumped there...

 

[Peter Brendt]

As far as age...

Characteristics of the Serial Killer
According to Hickey's 1997 database of approximately 399 serial killers, the average age of the murderer at the time of the first killing was 27.5 years, and they typically were white males.

Wow, this is what you get when you let psychologists do math without supervision. You didn't get the temperature example, did you? Average means "average" in a mathematical sense. This doesn't mean necessarily, most SKs start at that age, that means, they spread around this line on the age graph by easily fifteen years to the younger side and fifty to the older. If I add in my calculation the of the average age Albright, the Wests, Shipman and Buono, the older of the Hillside Strangler, I have so much "overage" gathered, that it compensates for a dozen or more SKs who started much younger.
As a general note: To work with statistics, it is not enough to quote it, one has also to understand the math behind it and it's limitations.
And such is the thing with "typically white". Since for example African-American's make only 12% of the population, the expectation value in the group of serial killer should be also 12%. While the expectation value for Caucasians should be short under 70% because that's their share on the total population. So yes, in a population with 100% whites, the SK is typically white, in a population with 70% you would expect 70% and if a group with 12% population share has much more than those 12% in SKs, you have a social problem there. To say, SKs are typically white is onyl true because the big majority of the population is white. The typical serial killer in South Africa is black, guess why? Oh, and all they caught in China were yellow. And Columbia has this big problem, their serial killers are typically brown.
So, please, if a lousy mathematician like Dr. Hickey plays with tools, he hasn't fully understand, then it's sad. If someone else takes those "scientific facts", despite the fact, they are proven a hundred times mathematically doubtful, then it's double sad.

You cited Jane Doe 2000's toenails and scar discussion. Those details were for Jane Doe 9098 whose legs washed ashore in 1996. I assume she was killed shortly prior to the discovery of her legs on April 20, 1996.

So, we're using now new numbers and I messed those two up? That doesn't change anything about what I said about Jessica Taylor's remains. And it doesn't put the question why JD6 aka JD2000 aka whatever, wasn't found in the first search if her remains were so near.

Regarding the victim from 2000, Jane Doe #6:
"To narrow the focus this woman would have been last seen alive in the late summer or fall in 2000…Consider that this woman may have been working as a prostitute in New York City during that time…This woman may have had a tattoo or other identifiable characteristic on her right ankle," Dormer said.

I am not going to read this as "her ankle must have been stored in a freezer and only deposited in Cedar Beach as part of some serial killer competition." It's entirely possible that her right ankle was recovered in Manorville among the bag of remains in 2000.

Really? You quote Dormer now as authority? That guy was in March 2011 still denying there is even one SK in the area. :floorlaugh:
And then, I count two "may" and one "would" in four lines, Dormer spoke, indicating, he didn't know a thing. She may would have been this or that and may had or would have this or that. That's pretty empty.
Now you go and tell me, the master of not knowing and not seeing didn't tell, the ankle was preserved in what way ever? And expect me to take that as authoritative despite the fact, that an ankle after eleven years in the open near to a sea shore wouldn't remain at all most likely? Remains can survive longer, but under dry conditions. And hands and feet contain a lot of small bones.
So in the quintessence, your argument is, that Dormer don't see or isn't aware and so do you. Nothing, facts can do about this, I assume.

Regarding Jessica Taylor, she was identified because D.C. police recognized a partial tattoo recovered in 2003 from her hip/torso area. There wasn't much decomposition at all.

I think, those guys, who found her head and other partial remains in 2011 would disagree with you. Those remains were then eight years out. But hey, what if there wasn't too much decomposition on those parts either? Ooops, that would explain of course, why they had those figure out do fast.

As far as your typical "Staging Dismemberers", isn't the "staging" really just a way of shocking the public or taunting police? We didn't see ANY of that here that I can see. And we don't know how Jane Doe #10, JD-9098, Jane Doe #6 and Jessica Taylor died. It very well could be strangulation/asphyxiation.

Since you loved Dormer's fairy tale so much, why don't you read another one? Google "The Rainham Mystery". It's a very old case, but I love it because it also involves Jack the Ripper and probably the sudden end of his career.
This shocking effect is a by-product. Staging dismemberers seem all to suffer from the same problem to express themselves, so they tend to use body parts, preferably torsos, as statements. So well, the remains found were in some cases too decomposed to figure out, whether dismemberment happened ante- or postmortem. And the ME reports about the torsos are inaccessible since the fairy tale prince Dormer and his guys sit on them and don't release them. So yes, as long as Dromer does so, or now his successor, what's his name again, as long you are right. COD could be asphyxia, or strangulation .... or sudden heart attack ... or the sky fell on their heads. You're arguing with evidence, that is held back from the public as if the holding back would prove anything. I do the same, I say heart attack and their landlord wnated the bodies out. Nothing to prove that theory, but hey, Dormer didn't say, it wasn't that way.
Honestly? I hoped till the second search I would be wrong about Manorville. These types are so hard to catch and they are somewhere between Hannibal Lecter and a real life case of big pain in the *advertiser censored** as it is technically possible. And also honestly, I still hope, it isn't. But a torso on a wood pile, body parts popping up right after another guy got all the fame ... that doesn't bode well.

I think some of your some of your facts and follow-on assumptions are wrong. I'm not discounting what you're saying, I'm just not seeing the same things as you.

Well, that can happen. That you don't see. Happened to a lot of people in fact, when it came to serial killers.
Well, just to say "you're wrong" is the cheapest and therefore easiest to ignore argument if you can't support your opinion with facts (as I did for example in this little statistics talk above). I think, I would like to challenge you to do so. Because either you find something wrong and I go back to the drawing board and see how that fits in or not, or you find nothing, then I take that as a test in the water tightness. I've played that tactics with others in other cases before, it was always big fun.

 

[Peter Brendt]

I see it the other way around, particularly the dismemberment of Jessica Taylor and the subsequent mutilation of her tattoo. Dismember body, maybe in a panic to prevent identification. Whoops, forgot the tattoo! So he slices at the tattoo with a razor blade, but lacks the skill to actually mutilate it beyond recognition or completely remove it. Removing a tattoo can't be any grosser than lopping off someone's head and hands, so maybe he was getting grossed out by all this dismembering?

The killing of Jessica Taylor shows disorganization, fear, and inexperience. Manorville was fumbling.

Yeah, and then he panicked even more and staged her torso on a wood pile along a dog walking path right next to the local wild garbage disposal. So in a place where she had to be found quickly. And with the rest, head, arms, legs, he took his good time till they appeared years later near Gilgo Beach in suprisingly good condition. Yeah, this guy was obviously totally fumbling and panicking ... NOT

 

[Aleph]

Can Manorville be the LISK? Well, he would need to abandon what defines him, a psychopath/sadist, speed up three or four times, de-escalate in his violence and start to build a trophy garden, after he had his own collection already stashed in form of preserved body parts for years. In short, he would have to abandon all that made him who he is to become something entirely new to fulfill tastes, he hadn't in the first place. Even more, he would have to develop a split personality to go into competitive behavior with himself, as he did when he dropped more body parts right near to LISK's trophy garden. So, by all means Manorville=LISK -> No way!

RSBM.

I try to remain as open-minded as I can about this case, because if I fall in love with any theory, I become blind to other possibilities. However, I find what you've written here very compelling.

My only issue is the speed thing, which you seem to view as very important. But serial killers can apparently go dormant for years (BTK, Grim Sleeper, and Joseph Duncan spring to mind) for reasons that nobody fully understands, but opportunity definitely has something to do with it, and maybe stress.

I think there is a good argument to be made that Manorville was uncomfortable with dismembering. See my previous post about the sloppiness of the mutilated tattoo and also this:

"Taylor’s torso was left literally yards away from the main road and uncovered. Police have said she was found on a plastic sheet as though someone dragged or pushed her out of the car and then drove off." (from Long Island Press)

That doesn't sound so much like staging to me. It sounds like someone uncomfortable with touching the torso again. More sloppiness.

 

[Aleph]

and yet JT is the only id of all the bodies dumped there...

Only because they got lucky with the tattoo. Someone remembered it.

 

[Dwntwnslim]

The distance between the points Zach's Bay and Blue Point is approx. 35 miles (via the channels). 35 miles = 30.4 nautical miles. Time elapsed between January 6-April 20 is 104 days or 2,496 hours. So the estimated current speed is:
30.4 nm/2496 hr = 0.012 nm/hr = 0.012 knots

The longshore current is est. 1 knot. If the bag was neutrally buoyant, it would have made it from Jones Inlet to Blue Point (est. 26 nm) in approx. 26 hours. So the idea that the storm was the cause of the dislodgement requires the bag to bobble around in the bay for 103 days, or it requires it to lumber across the bottom at an extremely slow rate. The currents in the channels are probably 3-5 knots on average. I'm not saying its impossible, I'm just saying it's unlikely that the storm is related.

If we did a little experiment where we put a bunch of meat in a bag, threw into the Jones Channel near Zach's Bay with a GPS attached, I think it would end up at Blue Point in something like 3-5 days, 15 days max. Sure it could get hung up on something, but if it did, it would be fish and crab food in absolutely no time. There would be nothing left after a week.

Also, the fact that toenail polish was present concerns me. I'm not sure how much would be left after 104 days in saltwater environment.

I still think it's much easier to assume the SK made the dump sometime around April 15, dividing the head on the land and the legs in the water. After reading about the discovery of the legs only a few days later, the M.O. was updated with the "land-only" rule.

Remind me why it matters anyway? If your theory is true, how does this inform us? What relevant information does it provide? That he was familiar with the access road? I can accept that just based on JD#10's location, and think that you pointing that out is great. Is the date important for some reason?

My experience with nail polish in salt water is that it sort of bubbles away from the surface of my nail then kind of peels off within 1 hour. Of course I am active when I'm at the beach so I'm sure that quickens the peeling of the polish. MOO.

 

[Theforeigner]

I see it the other way around, particularly the dismemberment of Jessica Taylor and the subsequent mutilation of her tattoo. Dismember body, maybe in a panic to prevent identification. Whoops, forgot the tattoo! So he slices at the tattoo with a razor blade, but lacks the skill to actually mutilate it beyond recognition or completely remove it. Removing a tattoo can't be any grosser than lopping off someone's head and hands, so maybe he was getting grossed out by all this dismembering?

The killing of Jessica Taylor shows disorganization, fear, and inexperience. Manorville was fumbling.

Maybe the killer intentionally let the tattoo angel-wing bee, because he felt that now HIS victim, Jessica Taylor, was HIS angel, but absolutely NOT "Remy's Angel" (that is what was written in the erazed part of the tattoo), so he erazed the wording "Remy's Angel", but let the angel-wing stay intact.

Maybe the killer had some kind of sick fantasy that when he killed thise, in his opinion sinful woman, they became angels.

Concerning the Atlantic City murders; I wonder if there is any religious/spiritual/occult rules/laws about angels facing east?

 

[scandi]

Maybe the killer intentionally let the tattoo angel-wing bee, because he felt that now HIS victim, Jessica Taylor, was HIS angel, but absolutely NOT "Remy's Angel" (that is what was written in the erazed part of the tattoo), so he erazed the wording "Remy's Angel", but let the angel-wing stay intact.

Maybe the killer had some kind of sick fantasy that when he killed thise, in his opinion sinful woman, they became angels.

Concerning the Atlantic City murders; I wonder if there is any religious/spiritual/occult rules/laws about angels facing east?

I found this and it is is in the Mormon faith: http://www.patheos.com/Library/Mormonism/Ritual-Worship-Devotion-Symbolism/Symbolism.htmlhttp://

Snippet " . . . . Mormon temples typically are topped by a large golden statue of an angel blowing a trumpet. This angel, named Moroni, . . . . represented on the temples as holding a trumpet with which to declare the true religion. In a reflection of Mormonism's apocalyptic roots, the angel statues on the temples face east in anticipation of Christ's second coming.

This too: http://www.unexplainedstuff.com/Superstitions-Strange-Customs-Taboos-and-Urban-Legends/Strange-Customs-and-Taboos-Burials-and-funerals.html

Snippet "The religious service associated with many modern funerals quite likely originated in .... face toward the east, because of the old custom of facing the east when praying. ... "



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