NE NE - Jason Jolkowski -19 - Omaha - 13 Jun 2001 - #4

[Sonny Crockett]

Fair enough. It wouldn't be surprising for someone with a history of paranoia and/or drug use to have a gun with them in their car. Going with your analysis, all it would take is such a person driving up to Jason, rolling down the window, showing the weapon and telling him to get in.

Yes, I agree. If the perp. had a gun (and not just a knife, for example) that would be enough to get someone in the car - by force. Though, some people would try to run even when confronted by a gun - I agree that most people would probably get into the car under these circumstances.

 

[Andreee]

Fair enough. It wouldn't be surprising for someone with a history of paranoia and/or drug use to have a gun with them in their car. Going with your analysis, all it would take is such a person driving up to Jason, rolling down the window, showing the weapon and telling him to get in.

And as one past investigator said, and I would certainly think is the mindset of any of the other ones who have been involved in this case, this is the single most baffling missing person case they have ever dealt with!!! It was mid morning, with a very unlikely victim who had no apparent enemies, no drug or other bad habits, no clues whatsover, no witnesses, tight time frame, dense ok neighborhood, sooo frustrating to even think about! If it was at night, at least there could be some sense made of it, but 10:45 am to 11:15 a.m.?

 

[Andreee]

Yes, I agree. If the perp. had a gun (and not just a knife, for example) that would be enough to get someone in the car - by force. Though, some people would try to run even when confronted by a gun - I agree that most people would probably get into the car under these circumstances.

I think, in fact I know, I would run. Safety experts say do everything you can to not get in that car, so I would take my chances and run! Would rather be shot in public, than in isolated area.

 

[Vital Forces]

Yes, I agree. If the perp. had a gun (and not just a knife, for example) that would be enough to get someone in the car - by force. Though, some people would try to run even when confronted by a gun - I agree that most people would probably get into the car under these circumstances.

I think, in fact I know, I would run. Safety experts say do everything you can to not get in that car, so I would take my chances and run! Would rather be shot in public, than in isolated area.

Not everyone would try to escape. Many would get in the car, especially if they were surprised by the situation or if there was nowhere to hide or take cover.

I'm a little bit younger than Jason. The conventional wisdom of crime safety, at least what was taught to my generation, was to do whatever it took to survive the situation, including simply doing whatever the criminal wanted.

 

[Andreee]

I have seen many safety experts talk about what to do if someone tries to force you into a vehicle against your will. And that you should do everything humanly possible to not get in that vehicle! Once you do, they can take you to any isolated area and kill you. If you refuse to get in the vehicle, you at least have a chance at surviving. Makes sense.

 

[MatthewTyler]

While the scenario of someone brandishing a gun and forcing Jason to comply and get in the car could be possible, realistically it's just not too plausible. Any predator worth their salt is not going to do this mid morning in a suburban area with dozens of windows that anyone can be looking out at any given time. And even less likely to abduct someone over the age of 10 in this manner. It's just too much of a risk. Predators like Gacy and Dahmer were not even that ballsy. Their victims went willingly under the guise of either hanging out, having a place to stay, or some kind of job offer. If Jason did enter a vehicle, or even a house, it was likely for one of two reasons:
1) He knew the person and it was under a false pretense of either helping them or getting a lift
2) He pre-arranged the pick-up or stopping by the house for whatever reason, and the perp then had more time to plan their attack.

 

[Alleykins]

While the scenario of someone brandishing a gun and forcing Jason to comply and get in the car could be possible, realistically it's just not too plausible. Any predator worth their salt is not going to do this mid morning in a suburban area with dozens of windows that anyone can be looking out at any given time. And even less likely to abduct someone over the age of 10 in this manner. It's just too much of a risk. Predators like Gacy and Dahmer were not even that ballsy. Their victims went willingly under the guise of either hanging out, having a place to stay, or some kind of job offer. If Jason did enter a vehicle, or even a house, it was likely for one of two reasons:
1) He knew the person and it was under a false pretense of either helping them or getting a lift
2) He pre-arranged the pick-up or stopping by the house for whatever reason, and the perp then had more time to plan their attack.

I agree. Using coercion to get Jason into a vehicle or house in the middle of a suburban neighborhood, in broad daylight, carried too much risk. I agree more with the #1 scenario than #2, but I think forcing a grown man into the car or home with a weapon had the greatest risk of the perp getting caught. Now, if he entered a car or house willingly/voluntarily, use of a weapon to keep him there is entirely possibly.

 

[Alleykins]

Not everyone would try to escape. Many would get in the car, especially if they were surprised by the situation or if there was nowhere to hide or take cover.

I'm a little bit younger than Jason. The conventional wisdom of crime safety, at least what was taught to my generation, was to do whatever it took to survive the situation, including simply doing whatever the criminal wanted.

I think someone's reaction to a dangerous situation depends on a person's past experiences with danger. It's either fight, flight, or freeze. For me, I freeze in the face of real danger, especially if it's a situation I've never encountered before. I go through a state of shock where my mind can't wrap its head around what's it's seeing versus what it thinks should be happening, and the disconnect immobilizes me. It's the incredulity, that "I can't believe this is happening" feeling I can't shake or navigate through, it's like a broken record playing in my head and I dwell on it, robbing me of good sense. It gets me every time.

OT: I lost my son in a crowded public pool, he was there one second, gone the next. What happened is we came upon a pylon, and we walked in opposite directions around it. The moment I got to the other side, we're talking the span of three seconds out of my sight here, and I saw he wasn't there, I completely froze as if zapped with a tazer. Instantly, panic and shock took over, I was stunned. There was a total disconnect between what I was seeing and what my mind told me I should be seeing. I actually went temporarily blind with a gray fog distorting my vision, like my brain was trying reset. I found him, couldn't tell you how long it took because my perception of time ceased, he was okay, but the shock gripped me so hard, I couldn't see or think straight for a bit after my brain computed he wasn't there, but kept telling me he should have been.

 

[Vital Forces]

I have seen many safety experts talk about what to do if someone tries to force you into a vehicle against your will. And that you should do everything humanly possible to not get in that vehicle! Once you do, they can take you to any isolated area and kill you. If you refuse to get in the vehicle, you at least have a chance at surviving. Makes sense.

If someone is pointing a gun and telling you to get in a car, it certainly would seem the safest thing to do is follow their instructions. Even if that isn't the wise thing to do in such a situation, most people would probably get in the car.

While the scenario of someone brandishing a gun and forcing Jason to comply and get in the car could be possible, realistically it's just not too plausible. Any predator worth their salt is not going to do this mid morning in a suburban area with dozens of windows that anyone can be looking out at any given time. And even less likely to abduct someone over the age of 10 in this manner. It's just too much of a risk. Predators like Gacy and Dahmer were not even that ballsy. Their victims went willingly under the guise of either hanging out, having a place to stay, or some kind of job offer. If Jason did enter a vehicle, or even a house, it was likely for one of two reasons:
1) He knew the person and it was under a false pretense of either helping them or getting a lift
2) He pre-arranged the pick-up or stopping by the house for whatever reason, and the perp then had more time to plan their attack.

Please reread my recent posts which make no mention of a "predator" and instead explore a mentally ill or drug-using individual telling him to get in the car. A paranoid person who wasn't thinking rationally in the first place would not have been concerned with the risk of being seen.

 

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[MatthewTyler]

Please reread my recent posts which make no mention of a "predator" and instead explore a mentally ill or drug-using individual telling him to get in the car. A paranoid person who wasn't thinking rationally in the first place would not have been concerned with the risk of being seen.

Well tbh, anyone who kills someone, predator or not, is "mentally ill" in my book. However, whether they're rational in thought is another thing entirely. This abduction, imo, required some rational thinking for it to be pulled off without a hitch. Someone in a drug-fueled state or totally unhinged would have been way too obvious and not worrying about discretion would have been their downfall. This seemed calculated.

 

[Vital Forces]

Well tbh, anyone who kills someone, predator or not, is "mentally ill" in my book. However, whether they're rational in thought is another thing entirely. This abduction, imo, required some rational thinking for it to be pulled off without a hitch. Someone in a drug-fueled state or totally unhinged would have been way too obvious and not worrying about discretion would have been their downfall. This seemed calculated.

Mental illness isn't always plainly obvious. I'm thinking of someone with paranoid delusions in this case, possibly fueled by meth. It could even have been a case of mistaken identity, where they mistook Jason for someone else.

The rest could just be observation bias. Whatever happened was "pulled off without a hitch" perhaps not because of any plan but instead because no one happened to see anything suspicious.

It "seemed calculated" because humans are great at making connections, even when those connections simply aren't there. It's entirely possible that the early call to work had nothing to do with his disappearance. Other than being the reason for the walk, of course.

My ideas are speculation, as are everyone else's. I think it's best to apply Ockham's razor and keep our assumptions to a minimum.

 

[Alleykins]

I'm terrible with Occam/Ockham's razor, I wouldn't even know how to apply it in this case, there's so little information.

 

[Andreee]

If someone is pointing a gun and telling you to get in a car, it certainly would seem the safest thing to do is follow their instructions. Even if that isn't the wise thing to do in such a situation, most people would probably get in the car.



Please reread my recent posts which make no mention of a "predator" and instead explore a mentally ill or drug-using individual telling him to get in the car. A paranoid person who wasn't thinking rationally in the first place would not have been concerned with the risk of being seen.

It is NOT the safest thing to do, to follow instructions and get in the car!!! Safety experts advise otherwise. Better to take your chances in a public setting and get shot at, with a chance for help, then get transported in a vehicle and end up killed and left in an isolated area such as a forest. Let's move on.

 

[Andreee]

I'm terrible with Occam/Ockham's razor, I wouldn't even know how to apply it in this case, there's so little information.

Exactly.

 

[Vital Forces]

It is NOT the safest thing to do, to follow instructions and get in the car!!! Safety experts advise otherwise. Better to take your chances in a public setting and get shot at, with a chance for help, then get transported in a vehicle and end up killed and left in an isolated area such as a forest. Let's move on.

Ok, but as I said what someone should do and would do aren't always the same. Yes, let's move on.

 

[Vital Forces]

I'm terrible with Occam/Ockham's razor, I wouldn't even know how to apply it in this case, there's so little information.

From Wikipedia, Ockham's razor states that "entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity". Another way to put it is to find what explains the most with the fewest assumptions.

A paranoid person suddenly abducting Jason explains a lot in my opinion. It explains the lack of suspects, witnesses, clues and most importantly motive. It explains why he hasn't been heard from and nothing else has come to light in 21 years.

Sometimes crimes are committed by masterminds. More often, they are committed by the mentally unstable and drug addicts.

For what it's worth, if you listen to the interview Kelly, Jason's mother, gave a few years ago, she mentions him being coerced into a vehicle at gunpoint as a possibility.

 

[BrandyST]

Is there a general consensus on which way he took from his home to hs?

 

[MatthewTyler]

Is there a general consensus on which way he took from his home to hs?

His mother mentioned in an interview that the path would take him past the park and right to the middle school, so it's most likley this one:

 

[Vital Forces]

There has been some speculation that he may have used the walk to the school as a pretext to meet someone first. It has been speculated that he knew this person from the church, but another possibility is that he knew him from Benson High School.