GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - #11

[MamaJoJo]

I am only saying it is a possibility that something like this happened.
She is the same age and a letter was received which LE seems to believe was from her just as in the other case. Only we do not know what was in Abby's letter so no way to know if the cases are all that similar or not and thus I posed the linked case in my previous post as a possibility and not a probability. I sort of lean towards some form of runaway or runaway combo case but there is not enough evidence of any scenario yet to know much of anything. But I have been reading many cases of 14 yrs old young ladies running off with much older men lately so it makes me wonder.

Yes, Doc, I know you are only postulating. I'm just saying that we know about these other teens running off with older men because more often than not there is evidence they did so. LE has found no online footprint (at least what they are publicly disclosing) to indicate any such thing happening in Abigail's case.

I'm curious what you mean by, "No evidence yet," in your post's tile. Do you mind elaborating on what do you mean by that? Personally, I believe LE and the FBI have done a thorough cyber search for Abby and have tried unsuccessfully to find any link to a specific person that she may be with now. I would expect, or hope, that her cyber activity is continually being monitored in case she pops up somewhere.

We have discussed how Abby might have been able to carry on a secret relationship without leaving a cyber trail, or any trail for that matter. Seems like it'd be hard to do in such a small town with everyone knowing everyone else's business, IMO. Wouldn't one of her friends have known, too? I would think something as scandalous as a secret relationship with an older man would, at the onset, illicit some youthful giggles between friends. Sure, if it got serious, I could see the relationship being hidden; just not at the onset when the flirting began.

Someone also threw out the idea of the "perp" giving her a burner phone. IMO, that would be the only way it could have worked so they could have untraceable conversations. However, we are still faced with figuring out how she met and developed a relationship with this alleged paramour under the radar of friends and family.

With all of that said, I agree anything is possible. We just don't have anything concrete to lead us in any direction. All IMO.

 

[docwho3]

I am explaining my thoughts in response to a question and post here so I hope none of this is taken to be intended as insulting or unduly argumentative. All is meant in a friendly way.

. . ."No evidence yet," in your post's tile. Do you mind elaborating on what do you mean by that? . . .

This is an ongoing case so it seemed best to use the 'yet' qualifier. We do not know what evidence we may yet be made aware of later that will change how we feel about various case scenarios. What evidence LE has or does not have is something we can not know unless they release that info. MSM is our only info source thus far so evidence may exist but which has not yet been released to MSM. Also perhaps a second form of contact may yet be received from Abby, either a letter, video chat or phone call and that would perhaps give more indication about what happened (if LE releases the info to the public.) We don't know the future . . . so I said 'no evidence yet' in the subject line.

. . .Personally I believe. . .

We all have beliefs about what LE knows or has found in their searches for evidence in this case but we really do not know. We only read MSM reports and make deductions and reach conclusions based on those MSM reports.

Abby could easily have spoken to this man in person on a daily (or less often) basis and thus not have needed internet to communicate.

Abby could have used a friend's phone or computer to contact him.
He may have been a relative of a friend or neighbor for all we know.

Abby could have used a school computer to contact him.

The list goes on and on.

In the kach case the security guard at her school was the guy and if I remember right he continued to work at the school so no one thought of him since he was not 'running' and missing from work to arouse anyone's suspicions. I doubt they used tech to communicate in the kach case (I don't know- just guessing) since he was available to speak to on a regular basis in person.

Edited to add quote and link:
I guess for now the evidence boils down to this little bit of quote:
'. . .FBI Special Agent Kieran Ramsey said Friday "our worst fear right now is that, though she could have left willingly, someone may now be coercing her or someone may be manipulating her." . . .'
http://www.newhampshire.com/article/20131208/NEWS07/131209449/0/news0401

 

[MamaJoJo]

Senior Associate Attorney General Jane Young said investigators from the state police, the Conway police department and the FBI continue to work in North Conway and from a distance to find Hernandez, who was last seen walking home from Kennett High School on Oct. 9.

"The team of investigators has been looking at certain pieces of evidence, and they continue to have dialogue with (Hernandez's mother, Zenya Hernandez)," Young said.

<snip>

"This isn't a case where we've reached the end," she said. "There remains a lot of activity in this case."

And there is still hope. "There has to be hope, for Zenya and Abby's sake," she said.

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20140414/NEWS07/140419578

 

[docwho3]

Glad LE is looking at some evidence of some sort. However we do not have that evidence to go by 'yet' and so as I said. . . .

 

[MamaJoJo]

Yes, the list goes on and on about all of the possibilities imaginable in Abby's disappearance. And, yes, all we can do, because we are not privy to LE/FBI files or investigative measures, is base our opinions off of what is reported in MSM, what the AGA says and what family and friends say. We can also make general assumptions about how LE/FBI conduct investigations based on prior or intimate knowledge.

Keep the ideas coming, Doc. Who knows? Maybe you'll stumble upon the truth. Anything is a possibility; not everything is a probability.

 

[MamaJoJo]

I am explaining my thoughts in response to a question and post here so I hope none of this is taken to be intended as insulting or unduly argumentative. All is meant in a friendly way.

<snipped>

Glad LE is looking at some evidence of some sort. However we do not have that evidence to go by 'yet' and so as I said. . . .

I got it the first time, Doc. No need to be so defensive.

 

[EGirl]

I got it the first time, Doc. No need to be so defensive.

 

[docwho3]

I got it the first time, Doc. No need to be so defensive.

My apologies. I guess I felt 'jumped on' earlier in the thread and that tends to make me super careful.

While I am posting I thought I might mention a little info I noticed before but did not post until now. It is about the reason the letter from Abby was delayed.
'. . . Senior Assistant Attorney General Jane Young said the delay may have been caused by the letter going to a post office box and not the Hernandez house. . . .'
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/07/abigail-hernandez-missing_n_4404021.html

It is unclear to me if he was giving out that the letter was sent to a post office box as fact or if he was speculating. . . but I think he was letting a fact slip out.

 

[MamaJoJo]

My apologies. I guess I felt 'jumped on' earlier in the thread and that tends to make me super careful.

While I am posting I thought I might mention a little info I noticed before but did not post until now. It is about the reason the letter from Abby was delayed.
'. . . Senior Assistant Attorney General Jane Young said the delay may have been caused by the letter going to a post office box and not the Hernandez house. . . .'
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/07/abigail-hernandez-missing_n_4404021.html

It is unclear to me if he was giving out that the letter was sent to a post office box as fact or if he was speculating. . . but I think he was letting a fact slip out.

I don't think anything slipped out. Just go back in the threads and read the hundreds of posts on this particular topic. Once you're up to speed, I think you'll come to the same conclusion as we did.

 

[docwho3]

Have read the thread but this bickering is getting us nowhere.

I still think it makes me wonder why someone gets their own mail address wrong and I bet LE looked at it too for all their 'it does not concern us'.

So far I don't see anything more fruitful coming from the known info we have from MSM. Will check back later if further developments show up in MSM.

 

[rizzo0904]

docwho3...I get what you're feeling. I find emotions run particularly high in this thread which is why I rarely post in this case anymore. Try not to let it bother you.

 

[MamaJoJo]

Ugh! I don't mean to be combative.

Just like I thought I was innocently asking Doc to clarify the word "yet", I thought I was simply directing him to the hours and hours of conversation we had about the letter/delay/P.O. Box. The way Doc worded his post made me think he had not read that part of the thread. We spent what seems like forever trying to figure out why the darn letter would have been sent to the P.O Box instead of the home. It still makes no sense to me. I'd be happy to start a dialogue about it again.

Common goal people: BRING ABBY HOME.

 

[Kimster]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...GhHdFd8ymjnYeUy1nK4aTNmsKjhL4GGsmhzsq0BtBUGsN


Discuss the case and not each other. :nono:

 

[docwho3]

Ok, As to how someone makes contact: although I have mentioned stuff before as possibilities here is another example case which gives one the same question in spades:
BBM
'. . .So we took all the electronics away, and blocked everything, we blocked his number, stopped everything. We contacted him and said, "She`s 14, stop talking to her. You`re 26, you have no business being with a 14-year-old - - talking to a 14-year-old the way that you are. So he stopped.

It all stopped for a while. We thought it was done. And then I don`t know how they contacted each other again, if it was -- if she was borrowing friends` phones from school or getting on library phones, how it was. Actually, she ended up -- he ended up coming from Florida to our home in Albuquerque. . .'
http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1404/02/ijvm.01.html

'. . .Her mother says all electronic devices, including the internet router, had been removed from the family's home, to attempt to sever the tie between her daughter and Butler. . . .'
http://www.examiner.com/article/have-you-seen-lacey-dewent

Evidently people find ways.

**************************
Here are just a couple thoughts I had about the small news quote I linked previously in a post. These are just thoughts and not grand theories and may turn out to be completely wrong someday . . or not . .but isn't all that important in the long run: Warning - I will just put this out there as just some thoughts and will not argue the point with anyone:

Comment by docwho3: So if you (the generic you) at age 39 to 59 (could even be younger- I am just guessing
based on cases recently read or reread) have convinced a 14 yrs old young lady to runaway with you and you realize she
might have second thoughts later and might need to be killed (or if that was the plan all along) you might have
her write a letter to home in her own words but saying what you want said in general.

But what if you forgot to ask her the mail address to home and now she is dead and you want to buy time making everyone think this is
still a case of star crossed lovers on a runaway so you want to mail that letter to home. With no address you start going through the dead girls things and find an ID card from school or other ID with her home mail address listed as a PO box . . .and while that is accurate it is not the address normally used by the family which now has their mail delivered to their home.

You use that address though because it is all you have and it gets the letter there but it tips the FBI that this letter was not entirely the young lady's idea and gives them reason to fear she may be in great danger or may be already dead.

Note: A variation of that scenario is that the young lady herself gives the 'wrong' mail address on purpose
because it is a way of signaling she is in trouble and did not write the letter of her own free will. This might explain why LE although 'not concerned' about it won't say why the mail was delayed. It might be they don't want the perp knowing what the cause of the delay implied to them.

Not saying I think this is for certain what happened but naming it as a possibility that sort of fits some of the news remarks I read. Could turn out to be totally different explanation for the delay in the mail. I don't care about that.

I DO care about missing people being alive and safe.

Another thought about Abby hernandez case: Could she have been meeting with this guy regularly at or near that ski resort 2 miles from home? Wonder who she knows over that direction?

Ok That is all the current MSM based info and case experience based thoughts that have come to mind for now.

Thank you to all who gave recent encouragement. It was much appreciated.

I wish for a good outcome in this case.

 

[Mom24]

Ok, As to how someone makes contact: although I have mentioned stuff before as possibilities here is another example case which gives one the same question in spades:
BBM
'. . .So we took all the electronics away, and blocked everything, we blocked his number, stopped everything. We contacted him and said, "She`s 14, stop talking to her. You`re 26, you have no business being with a 14-year-old - - talking to a 14-year-old the way that you are. So he stopped.

It all stopped for a while. We thought it was done. And then I don`t know how they contacted each other again, if it was -- if she was borrowing friends` phones from school or getting on library phones, how it was. Actually, she ended up -- he ended up coming from Florida to our home in Albuquerque. . .'
http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1404/02/ijvm.01.html

'. . .Her mother says all electronic devices, including the internet router, had been removed from the family's home, to attempt to sever the tie between her daughter and Butler. . . .'
http://www.examiner.com/article/have-you-seen-lacey-dewent

Evidently people find ways.

Doc, what you're pointing to is just what someone above said, in the early stages people knew about the relationship. In every case I've ever heard that a child runs off with an older man there were past issues. The girl runs away with the guy to be with him because they're being kept apart by one parent or the other or some other situation. There isn't any evidence in this case that AH was having any relations with an older man. The whole "run away with me I love you" is all part of the grooming process and it includes alienating the child from their parents. This is why this doesn't really fit in with this case. Not saying she didn't run, but in my opinion the older man paramour doesn't fit. I'm not entirely convinced she wasn't lured by an older man, but I don't believe it was a love interest.

 

[MamaJoJo]

Doc, what you're pointing to is just what someone above said, in the early stages people knew about the relationship. In every case I've ever heard that a child runs off with an older man there were past issues. The girl runs away with the guy to be with him because they're being kept apart by one parent or the other or some other situation. There isn't any evidence in this case that AH was having any relations with an older man. The whole "run away with me I love you" is all part of the grooming process and it includes alienating the child from their parents. This is why this doesn't really fit in with this case. Not saying she didn't run, but in my opinion the older man paramour doesn't fit. I'm not entirely convinced she wasn't lured by an older man, but I don't believe it was a love interest.

I agree completely, Mom. Thank you for your eloquence.

 

[Steleheart]

Doc, what you're pointing to is just what someone above said, in the early stages people knew about the relationship. In every case I've ever heard that a child runs off with an older man there were past issues. The girl runs away with the guy to be with him because they're being kept apart by one parent or the other or some other situation. There isn't any evidence in this case that AH was having any relations with an older man. The whole "run away with me I love you" is all part of the grooming process and it includes alienating the child from their parents. This is why this doesn't really fit in with this case. Not saying she didn't run, but in my opinion the older man paramour doesn't fit. I'm not entirely convinced she wasn't lured by an older man, but I don't believe it was a love interest.

Mom this is a concise summary of the general view over the last 6 months with regard to Abby having left voluntarily. Thank you.

BBM:
~ This is why many have come to the conclusion over time that if she went voluntarily she had no intention of leaving for good - that it wasn't what she thought, that things went very badly very quickly. This, in fact was her mother's first instinct.
~ The plausibility that she carried on a relationship so as not to be detected is not likely In My Opinion because someone would have known - a friend most likely.
I say this, having raised 2 girls who are now 20 and 24. They both have had a lot of friends and I spent a lot of time with them, as I worked the nights while Mom worked the days, So all the soccer Mom stuff and several minivans later I look back and I can say one thing. Girls LIKE Secrets. The LOVE Telling secrets - they don't like KEEPING Secrets.

Having said that there are glaring differences in the cases which have been postulated as comparisons here;

Just using Michaela Bruce as an example, she was reported missing on Tuesday Feb 25 - the search was over on Friday the 28th. She was missing 3 days. Abby has been missing 190 days.
When Michaela went missing it was already known who she went with, she had gone with him before;
"Kelly said he believes that Edwards, who is married, ran off with the teen Tuesday. He said that Bruce ran off with Edwards a few months ago."
http://www.nbc4i.com/story/24844237/statewide-manhunt-underway-for-44-year-old-man-14-year-old-girl

There was no evidence of the kind in Abby's case.
~ Yes, in Michaela's case there was a letter like in Abby's case;
"She wrote a letter and indicated to her mother back in September that she was in love with this man," said Kelly"
So that letter was written 5 months before this missing case in February. Abby's letter was received only weeks after she went missing. It took a month to decide that "for now" ("At this juncture") "We Believe" it was written by her. A month.

I see no helpful similarity in this comparison.

In most of these cases where she ran off with an older Male much was know before or soon after. I postulated early on about the possibility of a very well planned clandestine relationship and my feeling was, and still is, that a 14 YO girl with a 'robust social media presence' would have trouble keeping that secret. They LOVE to tell secrets!
Honestly after 6 months I am thinking if this is the case then the guy is an absolute genius having done all the grooming in secret, all the communication in secret, planned ahead details such as walking route repeatedly so as to confuse the tracking dogs, completely miss the video surveillance on the 2nd day, but not the first day. Take a trail where no one can see you until you emerge near a road and some video, Act like she's in love with JC so no one suspects, don't fight with Mom so no one thinks she ran, stay involved with all friends, make plans for the next few days and make sure everyone knows it. On and on and on so that it looks like an abduction with no prior planning and without a trace.
Genius I tell you.
Except that in every case these guys all turn out to be idiots.

I read some comments early on (months ago) how when these cases run dry the forum starts to rehash old stuff and people start to bicker.
Let's not do that. But if someone has a new idea I would encourage them or anyone to review what has been discussed and see if it is, in fact new or different.
Let's all stay on track and realize that we all want Abby home!

 

[TheNightOwl]

I think that is is great that DocWho3 has joined in the discussion because so much has been discussed about her disappearance that there wasn't much left to discuss. We've all been waiting for good news, a sighting, an update or something. I still think there is something that has to have been missed. Was Abby meeting someone that day? Was she the type of girl who maybe smoked a little pot or anything at all that she might have been meeting someone after school for? Did she accept a ride with someone that she trusted like many have discussed before. And is it possible that she did walk toward Cranmore Mountain to see someone that day, like Doc suggested? Does she have friends who live in that direction? Was someone watching her walk to a friends house and establish some pattern of her walking?

I do have one thought to add to this, if you live in a community where a girl vanishes without a trace WHY would the police decide that the community is safe enough for all the other kids walking to and from school and they shrugged it off as nothing to be alarmed about for the community? Is that just because there was no evidence to support that she was forced into a vehicle? I still wonder about the comment from IrishBoy about the last two people to like AH's FB photo change. One is married to a sex offender so you have to wonder. I am not saying this person had anything at all to do with her disappearing that day, but it is alarming. He works near the high school. I wonder if the police questioned this person? I will forever remain hopeful that she is alive and out there somewhere. Come home soon Abby.

 

[MamaJoJo]

I think that is is great that DocWho3 has joined in the discussion because so much has been discussed about her disappearance that there wasn't much left to discuss. We've all been waiting for good news, a sighting, an update or something. I still think there is something that has to have been missed. Was Abby meeting someone that day? Was she the type of girl who maybe smoked a little pot or anything at all that she might have been meeting someone after school for? Did she accept a ride with someone that she trusted like many have discussed before. And is it possible that she did walk toward Cranmore Mountain to see someone that day, like Doc suggested? Does she have friends who live in that direction? Was someone watching her walk to a friends house and establish some pattern of her walking?

I do have one thought to add to this, if you live in a community where a girl vanishes without a trace WHY would the police decide that the community is safe enough for all the other kids walking to and from school and they shrugged it off as nothing to be alarmed about for the community? Is that just because there was no evidence to support that she was forced into a vehicle? I still wonder about the comment from IrishBoy about the last two people to like AH's FB photo change. One is married to a sex offender so you have to wonder. I am not saying this person had anything at all to do with her disappearing that day, but it is alarming. He works near the high school. I wonder if the police questioned this person? I will forever remain hopeful that she is alive and out there somewhere. Come home soon Abby.

You nailed it on the head, IMO. The more discussion about the facts of Abby's case might lead us to figure out something that might be pertinent. And, the more people here the better, IMO.

It's been a long time since there's been an active, engaged, back and forth dialogue on this thread. With so little explanation of the facts at our disposal, I can see how the only thing that is left for us to do is make up stuff and see if it sticks. There was a time when we were averaging, I'd say, 60 members and 80 guests at any given time. The thread started quieting down after the letter was disclosed and every possible scenario was postulated and mulled over. Then, IMO, it really quieted down when the verified insiders joined and dispelled quite a few of our (possibly outlandish) ideas of what might have happened to Abby. While it may have dampened the dialogue, I feel that their insight and direction has given us a glimpse of who Abby is as a person and how she had interacted in her world.

Did we actually miss something, not understand something accurately, while picking apart and analyzing what we've sleuthed? Quite possibly. All of your questions above, IMO, are exactly what need to be answered (and about a hundred more!). Can we, though, derive anymore without additional information? There is such a mystery about the letter, IMO. Also, about the exact location she actually disappeared from (not her last confirmed sighting). And, of course, the biggest mystery: was she kidnapped or did she choose to leave? Oh, and, don't forget: if she left willingly, did it turn South or is she just fine now?

I certainly hope that LE has figured out all of the possible questions (on their own or by reading some here) and have been working diligently to get answers to the details that seem to be so blatantly missing. I agree that IrishBoy uncovered something alarming which may or may not have relevance in Abby's case. When all is said and done (if it ever is), I would be shocked to find out LE didn't investigate that possibility completely.

Great post, NightOwl!

 

[LookingHoping]

Did the font change for everybody or did my vision just go way downhill?