Hey, actually
@SJSleuth, seriously you got me thinking now (I’m a little bit of a map freak)...you got me thinking about Rossmo’s Formula now (Geographic Profiling, explained below). We need 5 Data points though.
I’m still behind here but will especially be looking to what other abductions and attempted abductions in the county, etc. have been posted. As always, I’m sure many would come up in a google search, as they do in any given case, which often turn out to be unrelated. It’s like how every RSO Map lights up like a Christmas tree.
Perhaps Triangulation can be considered here...but we need that second data point there, unfortunately which would be another connected crime or the recovery location.
“"Rossmo used the background of the attacks to establish a perimeter, or boundaries within an area the rapist might live or work, that - when placed over a map pinpointing the crime sites - formed a triangle."”
Source:
PROFILE LEADS TO CONVICTION IN LA. SERIAL RAPE CASES
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“Geographic profiling is a criminal investigative methodology that analyzes the locations of a connected series of crimes to determine the most probable area of offender residence. By incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods, it assists in understanding spatial behaviour of an offender and focusing the investigation to a smaller area of the community. Typically used in cases of serial murder or rape (but also arson, bombing, robbery, terrorism[1] and other crimes), the technique helps police detectives prioritize information in large-scale major crime investigations that often involve hundreds or thousands of suspects and tips.
In addition to determining the offender's most likely area of residence, an understanding of the spatial pattern of a crime series and the characteristics of the crime sites can tell investigators other useful information, such as whether the crime was opportunistic and the degree of offender familiarity with the crime location. This is based on the connection between an offender's behavior and his or her non-criminal life.[2]
Geographic profiling is growing in popularity and, combined with offender profiling, can be a helpful tool in the investigation of serial crime."
CO - Possible Serial Shooter Has Colorado Drivers on Edge #3
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“The geographic profiling problem is the problem of constructing an estimate for the location of the anchor point of a serial offender from the locations of the offender's crime sites.
We have developed a new mathematical algorithm for the geographic profiling problem based on Bayesian methods that allows us to allow for geographic features that affect crime site selection and for geographic features that affect the choice of an offender's anchor point."
Source:
Geographic Profiling
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"Rossmo's formula is a geographic profiling formula to predict where a serial criminal lives. The formula was developed and patented[1] by criminologist Kim Rossmo and integrated into a specialized crime analysis software product called Rigel. The Rigel product is developed by the software company Environmental Criminology Research Inc. (ECRI), which Rossmo co-founded.[2]"
Rossmo’s Formula:
Source:
Wikipedia / Rossmo's Formula:
Rossmo's formula - Wikipedia "
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THE HOUND OF THE DATA POINTS
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING PIONEER KIM ROSSMO HAS BEEN LIKENED TO SHERLOCK HOLMES; HIS WATSON IN THE HUNT FOR SERIAL KILLERS IS A DIGITAL SIDEKICK -- AN ALGORITHM HE CALLS RIGEL.
SCIENCE
http://www.popsci.com/scitech/articl...nd-data-points
"Until he was called in on the Beltway Sniper investigation, Detective Kim Rossmo's most confounding case was the South Side Rapist."
Snip
"Rossmo's job was to help direct the manhunt. If he couldn't find the needle, he hoped at least to radically thin the haystack. And he would do so through the careful application of that most powerful of investigative tools: a mathematics equation.
Rossmo, 47, is the inventor and most zealous proponent of criminal geographic targeting (CGT), more commonly known as geographic profiling. He uses CGT to hunt society's most dangerous game: violent serial criminals -- arsonists, rapists and murderers whose taste for carnage seems only to sharpen with time, and who tend to programmatically continue their offenses until they are caught. There's no mistaking Rossmo for the FBI profilers down in Quantico's Behavioral Assessment Unit, the ones that movies like The Silence of the Lambs have turned into celebrities. He can't tell what kind of offender is terrorizing the town, how old or what race, whether he has delusions of grandeur or issues with Dad -- nor does Rossmo particularly care about those things. His interest is in the most neglected of the Five W's: Where did the offender strike? From this Rossmo can usually calculate where, most likely, he lived."
Snip
"The case intrigued just about everyone who heard about it. The notion of a master geographic profiler conjured those classic film scenes in which detectives gaze at a trail of red pushpins in a big map, then guess where the killer will strike next.
In fact, though, it's just the opposite.
"Geographic profiling isn't about prediction," Rossmo says. "Efforts to predict the location of crimes don't show a lot of focus." Instead of pushing forward into an unknown future, Rossmo's method pulls back to an origin, to the time and place the crimes were hatched. A center.
"You know those sprinklers where the little metal thing hits the water stream and it sprays around in a circle?" Rossmo asks. "You could look at that and say, There's a good probability that the next drop of water will land within this ring,' but it'd be hard to know precisely where. If you took the sprinkler away, though, and I looked at the pattern of water, I could tell you where the sprinkler was.”
Source:
CO - Possible Serial Shooter Has Colorado Drivers on Edge #3
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ETA
@dotr, I wonder what new profiling algorithms are out there...can you imagine the advancement potential, I’m quoting these posts which are years old...making a note to check advancements in geographic profiling..gosh we see the advancements with DNA.)
