What we know and dont know about the disappearance of Brian Shaffer
(and why I think he is still alive)
Brian Shaffer is missing. Yes this seems to be about the only thing that we know for sure.
Brian is still in the building. We dont know this for sure but we can safely assume that he is not in the building as we have no real reason to think he still is based on searches that included cadaver dogs.
Brian left thebuilding. Most likely yes he did.
Brian did not takethe escalator to leave. According to the police they are 100% sure hedid not leave by the escalator.
Brian said he was going to talk to the band. According to Clint he said this but we cant be 100% sure that he did. I thought I read an interview by one of the police officers that they talked to the band members and Brian did talk to them but nothing was certain as to what was said.So we can reasonably assume he did.
Brian did not use his cell phone after he went back in the bar. Yes according to his cell phone records he did not use his phone ever again.
Brian was drinking heavily. No we do NOT know this. This is according to Clint who made it a point in an interview that both of them had been drinking many shots of liquor that night at each bar they stopped at.Clint seemed to want people to know that Brian was very drunk.
Unfortunately there are too many questions that we dont have answers to but I would assume the police either do know or have asked these questions and more. Below are some questions that I would like to know.
How many people were still at the bar when Brian went to talk to the band. My guess is not many. Bands dont normally play till closing. If Brian did go back to talk to them he may have been going back to finish up a conversation that he had with them earlier but could not finish due to them still playing. They most likely would have been close to leaving by then. Brian being a musician himself this is not something out of the ordinary as far as shooting the breeze with fellow musicians IMO.
Were any of the bouncers and or security still there at this time? Again I have to assume that this place was pretty thinned out by then.
How well known was Brian to the staff at this place? This being somewhat of a campus bar I would think he was a familiar face to a lot of people there. If this was the case, would Brian have been told to leave by the staff while he was talking to the band?
Did Brian know any of the band members? What did they talk about? Did he offer to play with them some night or ask if he could? Did he criticize their music? Did he possibly come off the wrong way and get into a fight?What was the name of the band? Were any of the members in trouble with the law or had been in the past? So did someone in the band kill Brian? Did all of them cover up what happened?
What other exits could Brian have used to exit the building?
When I was there I saw an elevator which was on the other side of the escalators. Also,it is said the movie theaters have their own exits which only makes sense. There was a service entrance and also a way out through a construction site.
I would really like to know how many people were in the bar it being after 2 am. The owner and or employees should be able to give the police a reasonable answer to this question. If there was an altercation how many people would have noticed it?
Where there any kind of cameras inside the bar? I for one did not notice any but this doesnt mean much since they could be hidden. Cameras could have been added later, especially since this whole thing with Brian.
So we can assume that Brian left the building another way other than the escalators,but how? Did he do so willingly? When he did leave was he conscious or unconscious or possibly dead? If he was dead then he would have had to have been taken out in such a way as not be seen. If that is the case then it was by someone who KNOWS A LOT ABOUT WHERE THE CAMERAS ARE. He would also had to have been concealed. What possible door could he have used to escape from the Ugly Tuna Saloona? Maybe it wasnt a door at all.
If Brian was taken out after he was dead then when was he taken out? Was it after the bar closed? Was it the next day? Where was his body kept until then?Was he taken out at a later time? If so then someone had to have access to the bar when it was closed, someone with a key. This would possibly explain why an alarm would not sound.
It is of certainty that there are only so many ways to leave the building and that Brian did take one of those options. The one thing that bothers me is that whatever scenario I play in my head it involves most likely more than one person and most likely a few witnessing Brian leaving either dead or alive. Whether it being an accident or murder most people are not going to keep this kind of a secret or even want to especially if they are not involved.
Another thing that bothers me is Clints lawyer. He said that he had spoken to one of the detectives involved in Brians case and that he was led to believe that Brian was still alive. A lot of times and I know this to be true, lawyers will get some info that most others will not get.Lawyers are involved with the police a lot and I believe that something was said that led Clints attorney to believe that Brian is alive. If so then the police have a theory which involves Brian getting out of there on his own and possibly faking his own death.
I have been following this case for years and as I mentioned I have gone to the bar where Brian was last seen. The first thing I noticed and the one thing that stuck in my mind was the stage area. The stage is a built up platform made of wood that is roughly two feet high maybe slightly higher. It had a cloth curtain in front of it and the curtain was slightly to the side exposing some stuff underneath. It seemed to be just a storage area possibly for the band that may have contained items that either belonged to them or to the bar like mics and other things. I even said to the person I was with how easy it would be for me to just go over there and crawl underneath.
So I do have a theory that in the scope of things may not carry any more weight than any other theories that are out there, but is a little different from what I have read so far.
Brian was a very smart person obviously. A lot of people way less intelligent than him have run away and for years have not been found. I know its hard to believe that he would leave his loved ones but again people have done it and their family members swear that they would never leave like that knowing how much they not only loved them but were loved by others. Mothers have left their husbands and children which seems like a very cruel and heartless thing to do but we can only speculate as to why and unless we can put ourselves in their shoes we will never be able to comprehend doing such a thing.
Brian had expressed wanting to leave his life as he knew it and live on an island somewhere and play music and enjoy a carefree life and this was before his mother had died. The night he went missing he had dinner with his father. He also invited his brother to come out with him. I am willing to guess he did not do this often as his brother even said they had been spending more time together since his mother had passed away. He also told his girlfriend that she should move on.
All of these events IMO are glaring examples of Brian saying goodbye. One last dinner with Dad, one last night out with his brother and one more night out with his best friend Clint. I do think that Brian had this planned and planned well. Nothing about that night was by chance. His mothers passing was the last straw and he was ready to move on.None of us can assume how he felt and whether he would have not left because he felt an obligation toward the people that he loved. Im sure Brain loved his Dad and brother and Alexis but he had it in his mind that he was leaving one day anyway and with his mother no longer alive the time was right.
Up until now everyone has been trying to figure out how Brian could have possibly gotten out of the building through a door that has cameras at every entrance without being seen but there is another way out of the bar that no one has mentioned. A way out that I noticed pretty quickly while I was there. A way out that is very easy and one that Brian could have used without being detected! If you go out onto the patio area that is outside to the right of the bar right below the railing there is a slanted roof that is attached to the Mexican restaurant.One could climb over the railing and easily jump onto this roof and walk down to the end and jump off onto the street below.
I think when Brian walked back into the bar he waited till no one was looking and slipped under the stage area and waited. Once the place was closed he simply walked out on his own. I think he walked out onto the deck and jumped over the railing onto the roof and he would not have been seen. There would be no reason for the police to check that area even if there were cameras. I walked right past that Mexican restaurant on my way into the bottom entrance to the bar and did not notice any cameras facing the roof of that restaurant. Remember that Brian had two shirts on that night, one long sleeve and one short. He could have easily taken one off and looked totally different so if he was spotted on camera he would not be noticed. It would have been easy for him to carry a ball cap too to make him even harder to identify.Remember that his family was shown some videos of people and they said that they couldnt be sure that Brian was not in the videos they watched.
From here Im betting Brian hailed a cab and grabbed a bag he had ready. It wouldnt be too hard to have some clothes, cash and other items he needed in a duffel bag ready to go. Alexis said that there was nothing missing from his apartment and having a bag ready would explain why. I think he had his belongings stashed in a public locker and once he grabbed his bag he got another taxi and from there he was gone. The US Virgin Islands do not require a passport. All he would have needed back then would be his ID to present to fly. With his Dad now gone and his ex girl friend married with children I dont ever see him having a need to come out to prove he is alive if he did leave on his own. It is not illegal for an adult to leave without notifying anyone.
So there you have it, my theory as to what happened to Brian Shaffer. Im sure most wont agree and that is OK. We all have our thoughts about what happened to Brian. I for one would like to believe that he is still alive and has found his sanity after having endured what he has. If he is alive maybe one day he will let his brother know but with his Dad passing like he did Im not sure if his guilt would allow him.Maybe Brian has his own band and is living in a small resort area playing Jimmy Buffet music with the occasional Pearl Jam mixed in.
