Theories discussion: What could have happened to Haleigh? #3

[Pondering Mind]

Yes, but I don't think making this list would be too hard. I'll give it a try. Of course, I only know about the people we are aware of from the discussion on this forum. I'm sure there are other people that we know nothing about who would fit this list.

I don't think that the list would be very hard either kamky or very long for that matter. I doubt there are too many people that fit ALL the criteria cyber posted. Once you had a list of those people, then narrow it down to people that would have reason or motive to abduct, harm (accidently or on purpose) HaLeigh and we should have our perp. Now if LE would only do this! :crazy:

 

[Flossie JMO]

Great posts Kamky, I think several folks could fit that list, and I have always agreed with LE stating it was not a stranger abduction. JMO

 

[kamky]

So to continue, IF there was a family/friend abduction of Haleigh, their Profile would be:

Someone who had been in the MH and:
- knew the layout of the rooms
- and knew where the beds were
- and knew the back screen door would slam unless propped.

Someone who Haleigh knew pretty well.

Someone who knew Ron worked at night on weekdays.

Someone who had access to a door key:
- knew where a copy was hidden or
- or had been able to make a copy of Misty's key
- or had been in the MH earlier that day and unlocked the door
- or had a helper who had been in the MH earlier and unlocked the door.

Someone who knew Misty was a heavy sleeper and would be exausted from the prior weekend or someone who came & did drugs with Misty that night to knock her out.

If we make a list of persons who fit this profile, that would be a list of potential candidates.

Oh heck, this was a lot easier than I thought! I get the same list for every one!

~ Every member of the Croslin family
~ Nay Nay Prevatt (based upon being with Misty the weekend before)
~ Amber Brooks (based upon being with Misty the weekend before)

I excluded Ron, TN, & GGMA because I don't see them diverting Misty with drugs so they could steal Haleigh. I didn't even try to include anyone from the Sheffield/Griffis side only because I don't know enough about who might know who and who might have any familiarity with the MH. And, there are probably other friends of Misty & Ron who might fit this list but I don't know of them.

So this is the list of potentials, and it's a pretty short list!

 

[Flossie JMO]

Oh heck, this was a lot easier than I thought! I get the same list for every one!

~ Every member of the Croslin family
~ Nay Nay Prevatt (based upon being with Misty the weekend before)
~ Amber Brooks (based upon being with Misty the weekend before)

I excluded Ron, TN, & GGMA because I don't see them diverting Misty with drugs so they could steal Haleigh. I didn't even try to include anyone from the Sheffield/Griffis side only because I don't know enough about who might know who and who might have any familiarity with the MH. And, there are probably other friends of Misty & Ron who might fit this list but I don't know of them.

So this is the list of potentials, and it's a pretty short list!

Good start, I think some Sheffield and Griffis folks could be added, jmo, I do believe pretty much everything that went on there was known to several others, jmo

 

[debs]

I don't believe there was ever an abduction at all.

 

[cyberborg]

I don't think that the list would be very hard either kamky or very long for that matter. I doubt there are too many people that fit ALL the criteria cyber posted. Once you had a list of those people, then narrow it down to people that would have reason or motive to abduct, harm (accidently or on purpose) HaLeigh and we should have our perp. Now if LE would only do this! :crazy:

Means, Motive and, Opportunity.

As stated, the Opportunity is do-able from the insider but very challenging and risky.

The Means, if it was an abduction / kidnapping requires a place / resource(s) to hold HaLeigh and care for her all of this time and, if so, what's the ultimate goal? There is no known ransom, TM debunked that. Why hold HaLeigh and for how long?

The Motive? I have a problem with the motive since a planned abduction to take the kids from Ron would surely plan to take Jr as well as HaLeigh. Why only HaLeigh?

Finally, drat -- we may want to consider SO/RSO as a topic for the list because that's a motive but a LOT of risk to get access to a child when there are easier pickings, like Somer (sadly).

 

[Pondering Mind]

JMO some think money had a factor in HaLeigh disappearing, so it falls in with theories imo

Flossie, how do you think that they could have known ahead of time that 'they' would be one of the very few families to make money from something like this? Sadly, SO many children go missing everyday and most never even have a mention on the news. The Anthony's imo are the exception rather than the rule by FAR (imho) as to publicity and such, simply because it is SO BIZARRE..as are the A's imo also:innocent: While this case is frustrating beyond belief and the families are 'interesting', I just don't see how they could have figured that they would attract such attention, kwim?

 

[Pondering Mind]

Means, Motive and, Opportunity.

As stated, the Opportunity is do-able from the insider but very challenging and risky.

The Means, if it was an abduction / kidnapping requires a place / resource(s) to hold HaLeigh and care for her all of this time and, if so, what's the ultimate goal? There is no known ransom, TM debunked that. Why hold HaLeigh and for how long?

The Motive? I have a problem with the motive since a planned abduction to take the kids from Ron would surely plan to take Jr as well as HaLeigh. Why only HaLeigh?

Finally, drat -- we may want to consider SO/RSO as a topic for the list because that's a motive but a LOT of risk to get access to a child when there are easier pickings, like Somer (sadly).

But then it would still have to be SO/RSO that met all the criteria in your post. How likely is that?

 

[Pondering Mind]

I don't believe there was ever an abduction at all.

I don't either debs, but I'm trying to make sure (for myself) that my judgement has not been clouded by any preconceived perceptions that I had from the beginning of Ron and Misty.

 

[cyberborg]

But then it would still have to be SO/RSO that met all the criteria in your post. How likely is that?

Sorry to state the obvious but, a 'SO' who is also an insider in a home that uses drugs a LOT already has open access to thrills, IYKWIM (hate to say that) so why take HaLeigh away when folks are self-medicating and can be molested? Ruled out.

So it would need to be someone simply wanting to take HaLeigh from Ron as a parent but did not take Jr and it isn't as a hostage for money.

Any other motives?

 

[elle1919]

Yes, but I don't think making this list would be too hard. I'll give it a try. Of course, I only know about the people we are aware of from the discussion on this forum. I'm sure there are other people that we know nothing about who would fit this list.

Howdy...I was just popping in for a minute to read and I come in here to read all the brainstorming. Sounds good to me. Anyways I just wanted to make mention of something while ya'll are on the subject of the MH at 202 Gr Lane. Kam I am just bouncing off your post here and I wanted to remind you guys that some folks that might need to be added to this potential list is any former tenants at that address. Remember RC rented from the Bards and they own an awful lot of properties. Not to mention that there was a theory thread awhile back and it was noted that The Bards sometimes rented their properties to RSO's. I found it interesting that Ronald insisted upon changes the locks in his house when he moved in. Perhaps he had a hunch about something? Just speculating.

Also, something else that bothers me is that if we are to believe Misty's account of that night and she fed the kidson the porch and let the AC man do his work, perhaps he unlocked the door? Maybe he used the back door? If RC checked the lock before he left for work and it was locked, didn't the AC man come after RC left for work? One more thing. We have heard not a word if the front door was locked. Someone could have foregone the breaking in and entered through the front and exited through the back.....Just throwing ideas out here. Talk to ya'll tomorrow!!:crazy: My pillows are calling.

 

[azwriter]

It is too risky to risk an abduction during the night.

1. You'd have to know that Misty was alone with the kids, no-one else was with her that night or staying over.

2. You'd have to know where they sleep and where HaLeigh is in relation to that, so you can get in grab her and get out. No fumbles.

3. You'd have to brick the outside door and risk not being seen by someone passing by as you did so.

4. You'd have to pick the lock on the back door or obtain a key while the screen door is also bricked open. Suspicious?

5. You'd have to enter the house knowing where things are from the backdoor to bedroom path.

6. You'd have to turn the kitchen light on without waking Misty or Jr. Risky!!!!

7. You'd have to take HaLeigh hoping that she does not wake or scream and alert others.

8. You'd have to carry HaLeigh to your vehicle without being seen or disturbing the MH occupants by letting the door slam.

It was also on a Monday night after a weekend with Misty away so if you were researching and tracking the players, better to wait for a mid weekday when the routine is back and they have done it a few times to be sure rather than the first night back and everything was all messed up.

If I was an extended family member targetting HaLeigh I'd watch and wait for any daylight outside opportunity to call her over, if she knew me or was comfortable with me or snatch her when no-one was around than ever break-in the MH where Misty could have had her phone with her and dial 911.

While the middle of the night seems more undercover in darkness, you can see better in daylight if anyone is around. I found late at night when I go out that there are always people around even at 2am and you don't always notice them.

cybeborg, if I didn't know better (and maybe I don't) I would think after reading this list that you're an old hand at abduction. Just kidding. However this is a dynmatic post that should be taken very seriously.
Thanks

 

[kamky]

Sorry to state the obvious but, a 'SO' who is also an insider in a home that uses drugs a LOT already has open access to thrills, IYKWIM (hate to say that) so why take HaLeigh away when folks are self-medicating and can be molested? Ruled out.

So it would need to be someone simply wanting to take HaLeigh from Ron as a parent but did not take Jr and it isn't as a hostage for money.

Any other motives?

bbm

The are three flavors of this motive:
- Wanted to take Haleigh away from Ron because didn't see him as a fit parent.
- Wanted to take Haleigh for revenge against Ron.
- Wanted to take Haleigh for revenge against Misty.

 

[kamky]

I don't believe there was ever an abduction at all.

Just trying to take a logical swing through the possibilities. I'm getting sleepy so I may not get much else done tonite. Zzzzzzzzzz......

 

[cyberborg]

cybeborg, if I didn't know better (and maybe I don't) I would think after reading this list that you're an old hand at abduction. Just kidding. However this is a dynmatic post that should be taken very seriously.
Thanks

Thanks. I just tried to mentally walk through and visualize the steps and think about the challenges and risks. There are more but this is a summary. I am a security guy and get paid to break into computers.

We are setting aside our current beliefs and trying to discuss the various theories as validation to see where it takes us, what questions it raises and how it fits what we do know. I don't want to just shoot things down with an assertion or belief.

Explore. Follow the theory to its natural conclusion.

My challenge is motive and a list of motives.

 

[Pondering Mind]

Sorry to state the obvious but, a 'SO' who is also an insider in a home that uses drugs a LOT already has open access to thrills, IYKWIM (hate to say that) so why take HaLeigh away when folks are self-medicating and can be molested? Ruled out.

So it would need to be someone simply wanting to take HaLeigh from Ron as a parent but did not take Jr and it isn't as a hostage for money.

Any other motives?

Not that I can think of at the moment, but that's hard for me because I keep coming back to there would be no motive if an accident occured.

 

[cyberborg]

bbm

The are three flavors of this motive:
- Wanted to take Haleigh away from Ron because didn't see him as a fit parent.
- Wanted to take Haleigh for revenge against Ron.
- Wanted to take Haleigh for revenge against Misty.

Thanks.

1. Fit parent. This is the most plausible but risky since what do you do now? Keep HaLeigh in hiding forever or until/if the focus wanes? Is HaLeigh better off with access to school?, doctors?, friends?, etc What about Jr?

2. Revenge Ron. This is the next most plausible but would be more likely a drugs/money thing. There is no ransom as far as we know since TM knocked this down with his $30K cash. What would a drug/gang do with a little girl? Kill her? Sell her?

3. Revenge Misty. This'd be too much like the KC saga IMHO where claims were made ZFG took Caylee to punish KC and she would be ultimately returned but because KC did not follow the script Caylee was murdered.

 

[kamky]

Means, Motive and, Opportunity.

As stated, the Opportunity is do-able from the insider but very challenging and risky.

The Means, if it was an abduction / kidnapping requires a place / resource(s) to hold HaLeigh and care for her all of this time and, if so, what's the ultimate goal? There is no known ransom, TM debunked that. Why hold HaLeigh and for how long?

- Initial intent was temporary (e.g., scare Ron or Misty for retaliation of someting unknown), and didn't expect LE involvement
- Abduction for financial gain (selling to someone else for money or drugs)
- Abduction for SO reasons
- Holding Haleigh in a low-cost location

The Motive? I have a problem with the motive since a planned abduction to take the kids from Ron would surely plan to take Jr as well as HaLeigh. Why only HaLeigh?

- Revenge against Ron (easier to take one than two)
- Revenge against Misty (easier to take one than two)
- Considered Ron an unfit parent (particular affinity for Haleigh or only had time to take Haleigh)
- Considered both Ron & Crystal unfit parents (particular affinity for Haleigh or only had time to take Haleigh)
- SO reasons (only wanted a female)
- accident
- rage absent premeditation

Finally, drat -- we may want to consider SO/RSO as a topic for the list because that's a motive but a LOT of risk to get access to a child when there are easier pickings, like Somer (sadly).

Above is what I think we have come up with. Feel free to add to this, Cyberborg. I did include SO as a motive because it has been suggested that there was at least one SO who knew a Croslin family member and had seen Haleigh. Some SO's go after particular targets that they have seen even if it is risky. (ugh, I hate to even type that.)

 

[kamky]

G'night Cyberborg!

 

[Pondering Mind]

It is too risky to risk an abduction during the night.

1. You'd have to know that Misty was alone with the kids, no-one else was with her that night or staying over.

2. You'd have to know where they sleep and where HaLeigh is in relation to that, so you can get in grab her and get out. No fumbles.

3. You'd have to brick the outside door and risk not being seen by someone passing by as you did so.

4. You'd have to pick the lock on the back door or obtain a key while the screen door is also bricked open. Suspicious?

5. You'd have to enter the house knowing where things are from the backdoor to bedroom path.

6. You'd have to turn the kitchen light on without waking Misty or Jr. Risky!!!!

7. You'd have to take HaLeigh hoping that she does not wake or scream and alert others.

8. You'd have to carry HaLeigh to your vehicle without being seen or disturbing the MH occupants by letting the door slam.

It was also on a Monday night after a weekend with Misty away so if you were researching and tracking the players, better to wait for a mid weekday when the routine is back and they have done it a few times to be sure rather than the first night back and everything was all messed up.

If I was an extended family member targetting HaLeigh I'd watch and wait for any daylight outside opportunity to call her over, if she knew me or was comfortable with me or snatch her when no-one was around than ever break-in the MH where Misty could have had her phone with her and dial 911.

While the middle of the night seems more undercover in darkness, you can see better in daylight if anyone is around. I found late at night when I go out that there are always people around even at 2am and you don't always notice them.

One of the things that make your post so thought provoking cyber is that the key to this is that ALL criteria have to be met, not a few, half or most...ALL of them and some would only have been able to be found out at the last minute, such as:
(1) Misty being alone (keeping in mind that Ron apparantly did not know until the last minute that he was working over.)
(2) What time Misty was going to bed. (who in the world besides Misty could have predicted that?)
(3) Which bed HaLeigh was sleeping in that night. (has it ever even been confirmed by LE which bed she was actually sleeping in, if they know? IIRC Misty has stated both at different times.

As you said the list could go on. Much to ponder...thanks alot cyber, I was planning on getting a good nights sleep tonight! j/k....but seriously am going to bed (and hopefully to sleep!) Night All..