Theories On What Happened to Caylee Part #4

[Rumpole]

I am new to the ADD calculations and at this early stage in my relationship with that data I am besotted. In its simplest form I take it to indicate that the body was in the trunk decomposing for 3.01 days. What's .01 between WSers? Call it 3 Days.
For now I am taking that as a Given and a base in any proposed scenario. Whatever TOD, and time of body dumping/bagging in plastic are, I am for now assuming 3 days between them. Decide one and you fix the other.
I accept the fd video and testimony about the early part of 15th., so death could not have been earlier than that evening and probably later still than that. So as a starting point I am looking at the body being bagged/dumped late evening/night of 18th at the earliest. How does that fit in with phone and computer evidence?
It seems the 19th is largely ruled out, so I come back to the 20th for dumping, implying the 17th for TOD?

On reflection where I have said TOD, I really mean Time body placed in trunk.

 

[natsound]

hope this helps

tx Dot, I read very early on that it was a butter knife.

 

[BondJamesBond]

Speaking of mistakes...read the incident report Det. Beasley wrote regarding the collection of these items. Cindy is listed as a black, 27 year old female with black hair. Methinks Det. Beasley was describing herself and not Cindy...

*snipped*
There's another Cindy Anthony that fits that description in Orlando...she had priors.

 

[Rumpole]

*snipped*
There's another Cindy Anthony that fits that description in Orlando...she had priors.

Will the second one be suing?

 

[BondJamesBond]

I am new to the ADD calculations and at this early stage in my relationship with that data I am besotted.

Besotted? I think they have antibiotics for that nowadays. Might wanna see your physician

In its simplest form I take it to indicate that the body was in the trunk decomposing for 3.01 days.

Well...sorta...better to state that the the body was in contact with the trunk (or at least not in a leak-proof container...ala hamper bag) when the accumulated-degree-day clock stopped ticking because (a) the body was placed inside something leakproof eliminating the contact evidence, or (b) the body was removed entirely.

For now I am taking that as a Given and a base in any proposed scenario.

You can use +/- an hour or two depending on time of day the t.o.d. occurred, but, you get the point...

Whatever TOD, and time of body dumping/bagging in plastic are, I am for now assuming 3 days between them.Decide one and you fix the other.

Well said.

I accept the fd video and testimony about the early part of 15th., so death could not have been earlier than that evening and probably later still than that. So as a starting point I am looking at the body being bagged/dumped late evening/night of 18th at the earliest. How does that fit in with phone and computer evidence?

Regarding phone only...after 7PM...you have plenty of time to make it work.

It seems the 19th is largely ruled out, so I come back to the 20th for dumping, implying the 17th for TOD?

Dunno why you're ruling out 19th??

 

[Julius]

Will the second one be suing?

:clap: LOL!

 

[Jay D]

This thread is certainly fascinating, and I want to first of all thank all of the contributors. My mind is not fashioned to think as deeply as the posters and detectives here, so when I study this thread, I think more of myself sitting on the jury contemplating the evidence as put forth by the prosecution (You the sleuths). I hope it's O.K. for me to insert my thoughs as a juror here.

There is much good info in this post by JWG, enough to stimulate me to think things through again. I'll start my juror thoughts here and insert my reactions in red font.

Some of the pieces are still not fitting together for me, particularly use of the jeep and the source of the trash bag.
As a juror, I have yet to see sufficient evidence that the Jeep was used to transport the body.

The jeep

First, why did she borrow the jeep? What reason did she give Tony?

Driving south from Chris S. to dump the body near her parents seems to me like she is kind of going out of the way. She was not down that way all day. Why not dump the body near Chris S.? Lot's of locations there.
Totally agree.

Based on where the body was found, it does not seem that KC would need to back a vehicle into the location to dump the body, but even if she did, she would not need the jeep. Pictures of the curb do not look substantial - the Pontiac should have no trouble backing into there. If someone can find real clear pictures of the curb showing otherwise, please point me to them.
Yes, I think it easy to carry the bag that short distance. Even though Suburban is lightly traveled that time of year, a vehicle backed over the curb would have LOOKED highly suspicious. I sense that to much has been read into one of LP's statements on NG.
The bag

Bagging the body in the garbage bag on the 19th works from the ADD perspective. Fluids would leak through the laundry bag, but not a garbage bag.

But where did she get the bag? I had personally assumed that if she got it from Tony's, it would be a white kitchen bag. He's single, small apartment, has a nearby dumpster. He is not going to accumulate a ton of garbage each day. I'd be willing to bet he only had the white kitchen bags and had no need for the larger black bags.

So maybe she got the bags from her parents. The search warrant does not say what color the pull handles were, but the forensic narrative does say that a black bag with yellow pull handles was put into evidence back in July, and Yuri checked it out of the evidence room on December 16. So LE is looking for a match.

But KC did not go to her parent's home on the 19th, meaning if the bag came from the home, then she got it on the 16th, 17th, 18th, or 20th.
Why get the bag early if it is not needed? I don't see her planning ahead on this one. But getting the bag on the 20th is too late. I don't see the body farm being off by a full day (30+%) on this one...although anything is possible.
Extremely good point. As a juror, I would have to rely on my faith (or lack thereof) in the Body Farm Timeline. Bagging on the 18th in the backyard would make sense. Laying the leaking laundry bag on the ground while attempted digging could explain the hits by cadaver dog/s.
The knife

Another odd little thing that has puzzled me is the source of the kitchen knife. Cindy removed it from the car along with a number of other items. Maybe she washed it, maybe not, but she apparently did not put it in with her dinnerware, because she was able to easily locate it and give it to Det. Beasley along with the other items.

My guess is because it was not one of Cindy's knives. I believe it was probably one of Tony's knives. Already lot's of speculation, which I think is valid, that KC used the dinner knife to cut the duct tape. So this would lead me to believe the duct tape was applied at Tony's and not her parent's.

I think it is important to know for certain whether the dinner knife was from the Anthony's or not.
The duct tape

Where did the duct tape come from? I know that LE is looking for a match with tape from her parent's home, including tape found on the gas cans. Having a match would be very useful to the prosecution's case. But, why get the tape from one location and the instrument to cut it from another location? Could she have instead taken the tape from Tony's? Would she already have the tape based on the text from Amy indicating KC had Amy's duct tape? Would she have purchased the tape on her own (I think this is unlikely)? Would she have taken the tape from her parents with the intention of using it later?

I think again that finding the source of the dinner knife can help nail the source of the tape. Guess I will need to reread the Cindy interviews to see if she might have said it was one of theirs.As a juror, I did the unthinkable (remember the unstable boat in the SP trial?) and performed my own experiment. I took some duct tape from my garage this morn and compared the effort of cutting it with a dinner knife as opposed to tearing it. It was easier to tear it. Maybe KC didn't know this and thought she needed a knife, but thinking like a 22 year old girl, wouldn't she have grabbed scissors rather than a kitchen knife? Also I noticed that cutting with a knife would not leave a print on the sticky side of the tape still on the roll. To this juror, there is really not a needed correlation between the knife and the tape.

5. Why chose that dump site? No immediate panic and no need to go so close to A's

I think this is a very valid and important point. As a juror, I just have to believe that KC would have chosen a much more remote location. Also, this location really puts into suspect that KC would have had an accomplice.

Once again, thanks to the contributors here. I appreciate all of the work (Bond, gonna give you extra credit here), that all here have done. Looking forward to further posts in this thread.

 

[Rumpole]

Dunno why you're ruling out 19th??

I misspoke.

I was putting 19th to one side temporarily.
I don't like trying to incorporate the jeep, transfering the body, bagging away from A's back yard.
The actual date is probably the best for most scenarios in regards to manner and time of death.
Tell me again why it could not be that KC was driving around in her own car at least in the earlier part of 19th?

 

[Rumpole]

I cannot give up the notion that the body was finally bagged and readied for dumping while in the Anthony's back yard or garage. It may have been moved around in just a laundry bag, but having decided to transport it away and dump it; KC grabbed a garbage bag from the Anthony stock supply and placed the body, already in a laundry bag, in the plastic bag. To fit with Fathers Day 15th, plus 3 days ADD this cannot be done on 18th. Neither can it be done 19th since KC not in the vicinity of A's. I am back again to 20th and I believe KC was spotted early afternoon backing her car into A's garage. That seems the likely time for bagging the body and sealing the bag thus stopping the ADD clock.
Calculating back 3 days to find TOD, gives aprox 1:00 pm Tuesday 17th June. This leads to some horrible thoughts of Caylee in the trunk for almost a full day. Heavily sedated, perhaps bound and gagged, likely in a coma and eventually succumbing to dehydration or asphyxia.

PS I have changed my view on precisely WHERE Caylee died, and when Caylee died. I still have not absolutely decided when the body was dumped, but I now think more than likely dumped soon after bagging on the 20th. It is still possible the body was left bagged in the trunk untill the 24th as I previously thought, but I am rapidly moving away from that notion.

 

[kcaddict]

Some of the pieces are still not fitting together for me, particularly use of the jeep and the source of the trash bag.

The jeep

First, why did she borrow the jeep? What reason did she give Tony?

Driving south from Chris S. to dump the body near her parents seems to me like she is kind of going out of the way. She was not down that way all day. Why not dump the body near Chris S.? Lot's of locations there.

Based on where the body was found, it does not seem that KC would need to back a vehicle into the location to dump the body, but even if she did, she would not need the jeep. Pictures of the curb do not look substantial - the Pontiac should have no trouble backing into there. If someone can find real clear pictures of the curb showing otherwise, please point me to them.

The bag

Bagging the body in the garbage bag on the 19th works from the ADD perspective. Fluids would leak through the laundry bag, but not a garbage bag.

But where did she get the bag? I had personally assumed that if she got it from Tony's, it would be a white kitchen bag. He's single, small apartment, has a nearby dumpster. He is not going to accumulate a ton of garbage each day. I'd be willing to bet he only had the white kitchen bags and had no need for the larger black bags.

So maybe she got the bags from her parents. The search warrant does not say what color the pull handles were, but the forensic narrative does say that a black bag with yellow pull handles was put into evidence back in July, and Yuri checked it out of the evidence room on December 16. So LE is looking for a match.

But KC did not go to her parent's home on the 19th, meaning if the bag came from the home, then she got it on the 16th, 17th, 18th, or 20th.

Why get the bag early if it is not needed? I don't see her planning ahead on this one. But getting the bag on the 20th is too late. I don't see the body farm being off by a full day (30+%) on this one...although anything is possible.

The knife

Another odd little thing that has puzzled me is the source of the kitchen knife. Cindy removed it from the car along with a number of other items. Maybe she washed it, maybe not, but she apparently did not put it in with her dinnerware, because she was able to easily locate it and give it to Det. Beasley along with the other items.

My guess is because it was not one of Cindy's knives. I believe it was probably one of Tony's knives. Already lot's of speculation, which I think is valid, that KC used the dinner knife to cut the duct tape. So this would lead me to believe the duct tape was applied at Tony's and not her parent's.

I think it is important to know for certain whether the dinner knife was from the Anthony's or not.

The duct tape

Where did the duct tape come from? I know that LE is looking for a match with tape from her parent's home, including tape found on the gas cans. Having a match would be very useful to the prosecution's case. But, why get the tape from one location and the instrument to cut it from another location? Could she have instead taken the tape from Tony's? Would she already have the tape based on the text from Amy indicating KC had Amy's duct tape? Would she have purchased the tape on her own (I think this is unlikely)? Would she have taken the tape from her parents with the intention of using it later?

I think again that finding the source of the dinner knife can help nail the source of the tape. Guess I will need to reread the Cindy interviews to see if she might have said it was one of theirs.

How can we be sure CA gave them the correct knife anyway? How would LE know? Is it stated in a doc dump that CA took it from the car and washed it, or is that in an interview somewhere? I know it's common knowledge, but I'm just wondering where that info. came from. I can't go back and look right now, but wasn't the knife listed as "items removed from the car", as in LE removed it from the car?

Bold by me

Great post as usual...just a couple of my thoughts.
Tony might have large bags....college age teens, lots of party's, need big trash bags to throw out all the beer and pizza and other junk.

My only other thought was the body was disposed of so close to home because it was a familiar location..I don't know like she was in control because she knew the area...

 

[LazyCat08]

My only other thought was the body was disposed of so close to home because it was a familiar location..I don't know like she was in control because she knew the area...

I know what the experts say about murders disposing of bodies in their own home, backyard, or places they are familiar with but I just don't know.....KC wasn't a serial killer....(at least not yet)

I can't escape the thought that the body was put there in a panic....that just makes sense to me.....it just seems like it was thrown, perhaps with an intention to move it later.

I mean......Its not like KC or anyone could have known that the area would flood and be nearly unsearchable.

Either that or she put it there as part of a set up for "the nanny did it" story, thinking that it would make more sense for a kidnapper the dump the body close by???

Or someone else was involved and that person put the body there

BUT STILL I believe it was in a panic.....like perhaps at one point KC was driving around out by the airport looking for a place to put Caylee but for whatever reason she didn't dispose of her and then something happened and it was an "oh , I need to get rid of this right now" situation.

I assume that the area was quiet without a lot of people driving by because it was summer and the school would have been closed....

just some thought.....I wonder if we"ll ever know

 

[ibyoungr]

Some thoughts...

Texts with AH in late May indicate KC had been sick, and Caylee too, probably with colds. Originally, I thought this is where the "little snothead" comment to Rusciano had come from - Caylee was a mucous machine. But, the comment to Rusciano was early May and the texts regarding KC and Caylee health were late May. So probably no connection.

However, I am wondering if KC discovered the power of Robitussin or Nyquil or something else during this period. :waitasec:

Fast forward to the 16th. KC leaves her parent's and goes up to Lee's, where she gives Caylee some medicine. Caylee is used to this routine by now...been happening since the end of May. KC straps a sleeping Caylee in her car seat and heads back to the parent's.

KC had several bags with her and carries a few in, leaving a sleeping Caylee in the car. Then comes that 30 minute call with Amy. Good times reminisced...check out photos on Facebook...IM friends about the wild night.

Call ends with Amy...KC continues to surf and browse...Jesse calls and they talk about KC issues for 13 minutes. Then a call comes in from George interrupting the KC-centric world. Sometime during this brief conversation he mentions Caylee. After the call KC goes out to check on her daughter...who has now been in the car asleep an hour.

Still looks like she is asleep. Head plopped over to one side. Yep, asleep.

KC goes back in and packs for her and Caylee. Grabs a toy or two...Winnie the Pooh blanket...etc. Calls AL to confirm plans. Then a flurry of calls to GA and CA looking for babysitting coverage.

No dice. Will have to drive up there with the "little snot head" and make excuses for going home early.

Arrives at AL's near 4:30. Goes back to get Caylee and something does not seem right. She is unresponsive. Cold to the touch. Lifeless eyes. KC figures out she has a BIG problem. Looks around and sees no one is around. Pops the trunk and quickly puts Caylee inside with the clothes and blanket she had gathered earlier. "Mama" remains in the car.

June 17 - travel back to parent's to evaluate situation. Caylee clearly dead. KC finds a laundry bag and places Caylee inside. Maybe puts Pooh blankie in there as well...for comfort.

June 18 - tries to bury body in back yard with BB's shovel. No luck. Returns body to trunk.

After that...still contemplating...

If I was on a jury, I would buy JWG's scenario with the "cold medicine" before the use of chloroform. Unless the evidence can show me if chloroform was actually purchased or made and if there was a container found that had choloform in it.

I would accept a theory of suffocation as I have stated in the beginning and the August 14th video cements this for me. Caylee is asleep.. and wakes up and begs to go swimming and CASEY has a fit and suffocates her.

I do not buy putting Caylee in Tony's jeep... alot of vehicles have stains. Unless the FORENSICS show it to be decomp. So far we do not have those forensics.

I do not buy her chloroforming Caylee before they went to Blockbusters. It takes about 15 minutes for chloroform to wear off. Caylee would be in the back of the Pontiac at the apt while Casey was at Blockbusters with Tony. Caylee would have awakened before their return and even if she had duct tape on she would have made noises from the trunk(kicking or hitting from the inside. The duct tape was on her hair.

Addition to JWG's theory above:
June 17th... she comes up with the ZFG kidnapping story. She puts the duct tape on with a heart over Caylee's mouth. I think this serves a dual purpose.
(a) Here is a kiss from mommy... I love you but you should have been quiet. Now you are quiet forever.
(b) "See kidnapper Z did this... she warned me to stay quiet and she killed Caylee and put duct tape on here mouth and the heart was put there because she wanted me to be reminded that I did not love Caylee enough

After June 19th Casey really starts on her story to build up the ZFG theory. She talks to her friends...mom and boyfriend about Caylee being with the nanny.

 

[preciouskhg]

I think the duct tape was put on after she passed. If it was put on before she passed, I would think she would being trying to pull it off. Unless her hands were tied or taped. Thoughts?

 

[Rumpole]

I think the duct tape was put on after she passed. If it was put on before she passed, I would think she would being trying to pull it off. Unless her hands were tied or taped. Thoughts?

I have been thinking the tape was applied after death, but now I am thinking before death. I have always said if the tape was used as a gag before Caylee died, then her hands were taped as well or tied.

 

[reeseeva]

If I was on a jury, I would buy JWG's scenario with the "cold medicine" before the use of chloroform. Unless the evidence can show me if chloroform was actually purchased or made and if there was a container found that had choloform in it.

I would accept a theory of suffocation as I have stated in the beginning and the August 14th video cements this for me. Caylee is asleep.. and wakes up and begs to go swimming and CASEY has a fit and suffocates her.

I do not buy putting Caylee in Tony's jeep... alot of vehicles have stains. Unless the FORENSICS show it to be decomp. So far we do not have those forensics.

I do not buy her chloroforming Caylee before they went to Blockbusters. It takes about 15 minutes for chloroform to wear off. Caylee would be in the back of the Pontiac at the apt while Casey was at Blockbusters with Tony. Caylee would have awakened before their return and even if she had duct tape on she would have made noises from the trunk(kicking or hitting from the inside. The duct tape was on her hair.

Addition to JWG's theory above:
June 17th... she comes up with the ZFG kidnapping story. She puts the duct tape on with a heart over Caylee's mouth. I think this serves a dual purpose.
(a) Here is a kiss from mommy... I love you but you should have been quiet. Now you are quiet forever.
(b) "See kidnapper Z did this... she warned me to stay quiet and she killed Caylee and put duct tape on here mouth and the heart was put there because she wanted me to be reminded that I did not love Caylee enough

After June 19th Casey really starts on her story to build up the ZFG theory. She talks to her friends...mom and boyfriend about Caylee being with the nanny.

WOW! I'm speechless!:waitasec::waitasec:

 

[preciouskhg]

I might be off base or not knowing what I am talking about, with that said... Do you think that KC might have used that abandoned house that the PI was filming to keep her daughter there? There must be some relevanced to that house? How far is it from where the A's live and where Caylee was found?

 

[Rumpole]

I might be off base or not knowing what I am talking about, with that said... Do you think that KC might have used that abandoned house that the PI was filming to keep her daughter there? There must be some relevanced to that house? How far is it from where the A's live and where Caylee was found?

I don't think so. Some others here do.
I can't imagine KC going anywhere near an abandoned house. There were neighbours nearby who I think would notice somebody coming and going and might be alerted by a crying child etc. Always a risk that the owner would visit or just some other person tresspassing.

 

[preciouskhg]

Thanks HP! I really enjoy reading your posts. You have put so much into them. Really makes me think more. I thought she might use that house to drug her and put her there for a while, since the home owner's last name is "Gonzales", IIRC. I will be glad when this is over, it makes me sick to know that this happened to a sweet defenseless child. To know I was right there back in October on vacation and drove right by her home and where she was found. If I only knew. We did make a comment, just think she could be right here and not know it. URGH!

 

[websurfer]

It's all possible but it seems strange that if she was using this home as a hide-out, that no one would have noticed??? None of the neighbors would have seen her come and go???

Wonder if LE has taken the dogs there to sniff to see if she was ever in the house there?

I never gave iot a thought but heck yes she coulda gone there to hang out till they all left the house ?
And called to see if anybody was there and all?
And in her mind maybe she wanted that house and made up all the stuff/Wonder if the owners left any paperwork in it ? that Kc may have found and then started looking up the name and found ZFG?
So yes a connection to this house is a sure thing as far as
where she came up with the surname ha?Good idea!

 

[Rumpole]

Thanks HP! I really enjoy reading your posts. You have put so much into them. Really makes me think more. I thought she might use that house to drug her and put her there for a while, since the home owner's last name is "Gonzales", IIRC. I will be glad when this is over, it makes me sick to know that this happened to a sweet defenseless child. To know I was right there back in October on vacation and drove right by her home and where she was found. If I only knew. We did make a comment, just think she could be right here and not know it. URGH!

I would be prepared to accept there is some dubious links between the PI and possibly they were fed info from somewhere in the A tribe. I think they and other searchers searched all sorts of places, including a few old houses. Some probably videoed bits and pieces. I just can not imagine KC using that house or any other close to neighbours. How would she know nobody would turn up or check what was going on? I think prior to the last few weeks before Caylee disappeared I think KC managed to take Caylee with her or con various people into minding her.