Theory Thread - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

[Mr Fossil]

You mean..................'try' and significantly devalue it surely?

He never managed that at all.

Totally agree. It was his objective and he makes a complete mess of it IMO. In fact, I'd go as far as saying that he's actually drawn the judge's attention to Stipp's evidence and, when she verifies the actual facts, she'll see that his evidence is very strong and, as such, damaging to OP's version. She'll also see why Roux therefore had to try and discredit it. So, all in all, I think Roux may have done OP a disservice with this approach. Masipa is no fool and I doubt she likes to be taken for one, but she'll also be familiar with the techniques both prosecution and defence employ to get the best outcome for their case.

 

[44ALLAN]

Totally agree. It was his objective and he makes a complete mess of it IMO. In fact, I'd go as far as saying that he's actually drawn the judge's focus to Stipp's evidence and, when she verifies the actual facts, she'll see that his evidence is very strong and, as such, damaging to OP's version. She'll also see why Roux therefore had to try and discredit it. So, all in all, I think Roux may have done OP a disservice with this approach. Masipa is no fool.

Well exactly.

Masipa is no fool........................and she is backed up by 2 assessors who are obviously no fools either.
Not one of them will be 'fooled' by the tricks/smoke screens and general deviation of the facts that Roux has tried even though his attempts have been valiant in defence of his client,I'll give him that.

4 independent ear witnesses to a woman screaming for her life within minutes of a woman being shot and killed are just too much for Roux I'm afraid....................he should be fined and given community service for even trying IMO.
Someone said on here recently that a laywer(knowing his client was guilty) should still represent them and ensure he gets a fair trial..............I totally agree.

IMO................Roux/the family/the estate cat and all the barking dogs of that night KNOW OP assassinated/executed Reeva.
They are not IMO trying to ensure he gets a fair trial..................they are trying to get the charges dropped as if he is innocent and should be allowed to carry on with his life as normal..............Disgraceful, it really is, how can these people sleep at night !

 

[Lux et Veritas]

Legal View: Oscar Pistorius 'in grave jeopardy' of being convicted of Reeva Steenkamp's murder
by Professor James Grant, Criminal Law Specialist, Wits University, Johannesburg

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ing-convicted-of-Reeva-Steenkamps-murder.html

 

[foxbluff]

Should OP be convicted of murder/CH and actually sent to prison (if he doesn’t disappear first), it’s almost guaranteed he would be housed in a separate area*, away from the general population. This really would be a requirement to guarantee his safety. Life in SA prisons is brutal enough - without his legs (how long do you think he could keep them in general?), he really would be the easiest of targets; his life would no doubt be very short. What hardened inmate wouldn’t want to make a name for himself, to claim OSCAR PISTORIUS on his belt?
* No doubt Uncle Arnold and Auntie Lois would generously “gift” the SA prison system with a brand new, special annex - part of it , OP’s own little prison paradise, complete with gym and track.

BBM... exactly !! I've been thinking the same thing and wanted to post about it. I'm glad now that I waited for you to "word it" for me. Ty, Lux.

 

[Ncl1968]

If the defendant was a ordinary guy the judge wouldn't think twice in giving him life...but hes a south African disabled sports hero with a short fuse lots of guns and a wealthy family.... so she will think twice then give him life
Otherwise south africans will go on a toilet murder plea and that will be op down fall.. he can only get away with murder if its reasonable to do so.....
This my son is not a case of reason
Enjoy prison your going down!!

 

[Val1]

Legal View: Oscar Pistorius 'in grave jeopardy' of being convicted of Reeva Steenkamp's murder
by Professor James Grant, Criminal Law Specialist, Wits University, Johannesburg

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ing-convicted-of-Reeva-Steenkamps-murder.html

Against this, the defence called witnesses living closer to the accused who did not hear the screams and gunshots.

The problem with this evidence is the problem of proving a negative: that something did not happen.

Yes, especially when the hard evidence left a dead woman behind a closed/locked toilet room door with proof that 4 bullets had been fired at and ultimately caused her death, so obviously just because some neighbours(even if they lived right next door) didn't hear gunshots that early morning doesn't mean they didn't happen.

 

[4MrsB]

I realize everyone has their "gut feelings" on what may or may not unfold in court Thursday. Since I am not a lawyer, I'm guessing no one is too interested in my "gut feeling" but decided to share it anyway. Also, what will happen VS what should happen - are 2 different things entirely. If I was predicting what "should" happen - OP would be found guilty of pre-meditated murder & receive a life sentence. Bail revoked immediately, upon the reading of the verdict.

Based on what I've heard/seen in court, along with what I feel a Judge such as Masipa would view as "justice" served, I believe on Sept 11th, there is a good chance the following might take place:

1. Judge M will finish her verdict summation in a single day. She will not want the media speculating on her outcome before the following day's completion. So she will do everything possible to tie up verdict in a single day (as long as there are no issues & it's a normal length day in court)

2. Oscar will NOT be found guilty,of "pre-meditated" murder
3. Oscar will be found guilty of murder (either "dolus directus" or "dolus eventualis")
4. Oscar will be found guilty of the other 3 charges (Tasha's, sunroof & ammo charge)

5. Oscar's sentencing for the above (ammo, sunroof, Tasha's) charges, will result in fines & non-jail time. If any time given, will run concurrently with murder charge.
6. Oscar's sentence for murder will be approx 15-20 years. (I believe the min. sentence for "directus" is 15 years if no previous conviction. I would guess 15 yrs given, but the fact OP obviously lied & changed "direction" so many times, Masipa may add a few extra years.

Re: BAIL & APPEAL
7. Judge M will grant "leave on appeal" (not sure if I'm calling it by it's correct term) - she will grant his right to an appeal. (She feels confident that case & evidence all handled fairly and by the law. She is not worried about a reversal.)
8. Judge M will not grant bail this time around for Pistorius. As a convicted murderer and her view that there is a slim chance of any reversal on appeal, she will get his jail time started. She may however, wait until sentencing to revoke his bail, allowing him time to get his things in order for prison. If she does allow this, she will place him under house arrest, not allowed to leave his Uncle's home. (I would disagree with this decision 100%. I believe Oscar would never consider entering prison for any term more than a year. He will "disappear" first before allowing that.)

9. If Judge M were to find OP guilty of CH (I do NOT think she will), I believe she will definitely allow bail pending sentencing (and possibly pending appeal). However, if she did find him guilty of CH, she will sentence him to jail time for at least 3-5 years, not probation or house arrest.

10. Finally, I believe Oscar's team will fight strongly for bail while waiting for appeal. They will take it to the highest court level possible and likely win a reprieve at some stage - some court granting OP his bail while waiting for the appeal. (He will then disappear closer to when appeal ruling ready to be addressed.)

Whatever is to happen Thursday, it should be riveting. I of course, am not a lawyer, so my 10 POINTS above are simply "best guess" based on what I have followed in the courtroom & what I feel would be fair & just, based on the S.A. legal system as best I understand it. (Re: OP "disappearing" if found guilty of murder - this is based on his lack of accepting responsibility for anything that goes wrong in his life.)

 

[4MrsB]

Should OP be convicted of murder/CH and actually sent to prison (if he doesn’t disappear first), it’s almost guaranteed he would be housed in a separate area*, away from the general population. This really would be a requirement to guarantee his safety. Life in SA prisons is brutal enough - without his legs (how long do you think he could keep them in general?), he really would be the easiest of targets; his life would no doubt be very short. What hardened inmate wouldn’t want to make a name for himself, to claim OSCAR PISTORIUS on his belt?

* No doubt Uncle Arnold and Auntie Lois would generously “gift” the SA prison system with a brand new, special annex - part of it , OP’s own little prison paradise, complete with gym and track.

I totally agree....and would ADD this as well:
Uncle Arnold would have OP's "guards" on his own payroll (much like Frank I imagine). The prison would not necessarily be aware (or likely, look the other way with the right incentive) of this. These guards would watch over OP like a hawk. Make sure he had whatever he needed and no one came near him to cause harm. His "cell" (suite) would be customized. And the prison would be thrilled to have the funds or improvements to the prison that Uncle Arnold would provide in exchange. (Except I still think OP won't spend any time in prison. I think he will just "disappear".)

 

[Ncl1968]

Op can never simply disappear he seeks limelight wherever he goes

 

[Cherwell]

It would be good to think that these people might find that not everything is for sale.

 

[Lux et Veritas]

WOW. Look closely at the two photos below . . .

What a “eureka!” moment.

#1 The toilet key is a skeleton key. It appears there’s also a second skeleton key hanging.

#2 Two skeleton keys are visible in the bunch of keys/remote car alarm(?) on the night stand (2010 Paris Match magazine profile photo).

(I deduce the second skeleton key is for the bedroom door. It stands to reason a high-end house would have matching interior keys, at least for the master bath and bedroom.)

WHY is the toilet key connected to a bunch of other keys on the night stand in the bedroom?

I believe this is stark proof that the toilet key was NOT a permanent fixture in the door 24/7 and in fact, was NOT in the door when OP fired shots through the door.

Besides, OP essentially lived alone. Why would Big Macho Guy with 9MM - the same guy who slept with his balcony doors open - have a permanent key in his own private toilet?

NEW THEORY: Reeva never locked the door since there was no key.

(Scroll down for scenario and technical rationale.)





Reeva (allegedly) locked herself inside the toilet.

Given the photo evidence above, let’s examine this “fact” more closely - this one detail is CRUCIAL.

- Locking a door with a key necessitates turning the key to “X” position to actually lock the door.

- However, to remove the key, one must turn it back to “z” position to straighten it and pull it out. In other words, one cannot remove the key without first turning it to a certain prior position.

After frantically locking the door, why would Reeva then turn the key back to “z” (removal) position?

If she did not turn to key to the removal position, how could it have simply fallen out onto the floor?

(I suppose, theoretically, she could have removed the key and held onto it but in such a panicked state, after the door was locked, would she care about the key? Holding on to the key doesn’t seem plausible (what’s the point?) - her next logical step would be to call the police. However, terrorized by OP’s screaming and smashing, terrified that he would break through the door at any second and she’d have to fight for her life, she never got the chance.)

NEW SCENARIO:

1) During the vicious argument downstairs (EVDM), Reeva ran upstairs, slammed and tried to lock the bedroom door but had no time to find the key (on the night stand)
2) OP furiously kicked open the bedroom door (massive crack), grabbed the cricket bat and went after her
3) Reeva fled to the toilet as her last resort (no key in the toilet door)
4) he chased her with the cricket bat (unexplained back wounds?)
5) he knew he had her TRAPPED - key or no key, she wasn’t going anywhere
6) he proceeded to terrorize her by smashing the metal bathtub plate, the bathroom wall tiles and the toilet door (a woman’s “escalating”, “blood-curdling” screams - Stipps, Burger, Johnson)
7) when this did not suffice to quell his rage and stop her screaming (and potentially calling police), he retrieved his gun and silenced her
8) Uh-oh. Panicked OP suddenly realized he’d have to explain the smashed toilet door. Voila...enter the “locked” door and Green Key he “found” on the toilet floor.

This scenario explains why OP’s version is so impossible - he never rationally explained why Reeva not only would lock herself in the toilet but was deaf, dumb and invisible the entire time.

This scenario also perfectly dovetails with the State’s time line (bat, screams, gun, scream, gun, silence, OP yells for help)* and ear witness testimonies. Even the bullet holes support the State’s sequence - A ... B, C, D.

[I simply cannot imagine the pure terror poor Reeva endured for +/- 15 minutes.]

* As opposed to Defense’s time line, in which it cannot prove OP screams like a woman and Reeva never made a single sound (OP shouts, gun, OP yells for help, bat, silence).

But OP wants you to believe that FIVE credible State ear witnesses are ALL liars, that EVERYONE has plotted and conspired against him, including his ex-girlfriend, ex-friends, the entire SAPS, his own defense team and the lying, vile f##k even blames Reeva herself - “I wish she'd let me know she was there.”

All he had to do was open the door.

 

[4MrsB]

Makes sense LUX...re locked door vs not locked

I would love to ask Samantha T. if the hideous green tagged toilet key was always hanging from that door whenever she spent the night. I bet we can all guess her answer.

 

[Lux et Veritas]

I will happily come back and grovel if I'm wrong, but I think there are going to be an awful lot of disappointed people here. I will be surprised if the verdict is not culpable homicide or less with some eventual mitigation in sentencing due to his disability and remorse. The likely order of shots first, bat second leaves ample reasonable doubt for a targeted murder. Everything else can be explained, even if it not intuitive.

What “disability”?!

(A 9mm makes a great equalizer, don’t you think?)

Oscar has told the world 1000 times that he’s NOT disabled.

All of a sudden on the night of Feb 14 2013, he instantly becomes a terrified, pathetic, helpless basket case.

Well, it certainly wasn't Reeva Steenkamp who walked out of that house.


“I don’t see myself as disabled. There’s nothing I can’t do that able-bodied athletes can do.”
- Oscar Pistorius

“I cannot see any difference between disabled and able-bodied. Anyone who regards himself as “normal” has disabilities of some kind or another of his own. I can do whatever I wish to.”
- Oscar Pistorius

“I’m not disabled, I just don’t have any legs.”
- Oscar Pistorius

"I like it when someone tells me I can’t do something. I tell them to bring it on."
- Oscar Pistorius

 

[Hazy]

WOW. Look closely at the two photos below . . .

What a “eureka!” moment.

#1 The toilet key is a skeleton key. It appears there’s also a second skeleton key hanging.

#2 Two skeleton keys are visible in the bunch of keys/remote car alarm(?) on the night stand (2010 Paris Match magazine profile photo).

(I deduce the second skeleton key is for the bedroom door. It stands to reason a high-end house would have matching interior keys, at least for the master bath and bedroom.)

WHY is the toilet key connected to a bunch of other keys on the night stand in the bedroom?

I believe this is stark proof that the toilet key was NOT a permanent fixture in the door 24/7 and in fact, was NOT in the door when OP fired shots through the door.

Besides, OP essentially lived alone. Why would Big Macho Guy with 9MM - the same guy who slept with his balcony doors open - have a permanent key in his own private toilet?

NEW THEORY: Reeva never locked the door since there was no key.

(Scroll down for scenario and technical rationale.)

View attachment 58234

View attachment 58236

Reeva (allegedly) locked herself inside the toilet.

Given the photo evidence above, let’s examine this “fact” more closely - this one detail is CRUCIAL.

- Locking a door with a key necessitates turning the key to “X” position to actually lock the door.

- However, to remove the key, one must turn it back to “z” position to straighten it and pull it out. In other words, one cannot remove the key without first turning it to a certain prior position.

After frantically locking the door, why would Reeva then turn the key back to “z” (removal) position?

If she did not turn to key to the removal position, how could it have simply fallen out onto the floor?

(I suppose, theoretically, she could have removed the key and held onto it but in such a panicked state, after the door was locked, would she care about the key? Holding on to the key doesn’t seem plausible (what’s the point?) - her next logical step would be to call the police. However, terrorized by OP’s screaming and smashing, terrified that he would break through the door at any second and she’d have to fight for her life, she never got the chance.)

NEW SCENARIO:

1) During the vicious argument downstairs (EVDM), Reeva ran upstairs, slammed and tried to lock the bedroom door but had no time to find the key (on the night stand)
2) OP furiously kicked open the bedroom door (massive crack), grabbed the cricket bat and went after her
3) Reeva fled to the toilet as her last resort (no key in the toilet door)
4) he chased her with the cricket bat (unexplained back wounds?)
5) he knew he had her TRAPPED - key or no key, she wasn’t going anywhere
6) he proceeded to terrorize her by smashing the metal bathtub plate, the bathroom wall tiles and the toilet door (a woman’s “escalating”, “blood-curdling” screams - Stipps, Burger, Johnson)
7) when this did not suffice to quell his rage and stop her screaming (and potentially calling police), he retrieved his gun and silenced her
8) Uh-oh. Panicked OP suddenly realized he’d have to explain the smashed toilet door. Voila...enter the “locked” door and Green Key he “found” on the toilet floor.

This scenario explains why OP’s version is so impossible - he never rationally explained why Reeva not only would lock herself in the toilet but was deaf, dumb and invisible the entire time.

This scenario also perfectly dovetails with the State’s time line (bat, screams, gun, scream, gun, silence, OP yells for help)* and ear witness testimonies. Even the bullet holes support the State’s sequence - A ... B, C, D.

[I simply cannot imagine the pure terror poor Reeva endured for +/- 15 minutes.]

* As opposed to Defense’s time line, in which it cannot prove OP screams like a woman and Reeva never made a single sound (OP shouts, gun, OP yells for help, bat, silence).

But OP wants you to believe that FIVE credible State ear witnesses are ALL liars, that EVERYONE has plotted and conspired against him, including his ex-girlfriend, ex-friends, the entire SAPS, his own defense team and the lying, vile f##k even blames Reeva herself - “I wish she'd let me know she was there.”

All he had to do was open the door.

I realised this about the key last week when I was in the hairdressers. I needed to go to the toilet whilst there and the toilet was at the back of the building. It had a mortice/deadlock type lock and there was a key permanently in the door. No key Fon just a plain old key.

You simply quarter turn it clockwise to lock and when done quarter turn it anti clockwise to unlock. Simple.

When the key is quarter turned it is then sideways inside and will not come out. I too see no reason why she would turn this key 360 degrees or remove it when it was locked in a hurry.

OP says he saw they key on the floor after he had removed the panels but with the panels removed Reeva would have been visible to him yet, not once did he mention her or her condition until AFTER he had opened the door and accessed the toilet. Weird.

 

[kittychi]

I sense that you are worried FB.

Roux is doing a brilliant job. If I shot my next door neighbour, burned his house down, then as the Fire Brigade dampened down the burning embers I sat on the Fire Engine & had a Tattoo on my arm saying 'I JUST DID ALL THIS!' - Then I would definitely get Roux to defend me.

The reason is, he is doing everything in his skill set & knowledge base to work for his client. It is impressive. It really is.

Even more impressive, is that he took the job on, knowing the facts of the case already. ( Perhaps akin to my other neighbour, telling him that not only did he witness my wicked acts, but I had told him three weeks previous and he had not a hope of winning.)

It is a losing battle.

Roux is brilliant. I admire & respect the guy. However, he is trying (as my beloved American friends would say,) trying to put Lipstick on a Pig. Even if he does, it will still be a Pig.

Justice will prevail and OP will go to Jail. Also, I have said this before on here, I think I am in a very small minority that thinks he will not get bail. Bookmark this and come back & kick me in the Nuts if I am wrong.

I am in that club too, HF. I hope our hunch is correct!

 

[Hazy]

Photo of keys in the front door

 

[Lux et Veritas]

I totally agree with you on both points !!

BBM... Don't you expect Roux is already prepared with a lame excuse? Something on the order of "Yes, but a subpoenaed witness tends to be a hostile witness."

The way I see it, if a witness refused to show up and will not willingly testify, he's not on your side anyway. Why would you call him?

I think Roux's real problem is NOT that his potential witnesses are scared to be "broadcast" all over the world, but that he's had a helluva time rounding up decent witnesses who will testify on OP's behalf from Day 1. (Remember how one or two days were adjourned early because Roux was having trouble getting his witnesses to court? Yeah.)

Dixon (too bad for Dixon that OP didn't use a rock instead of a 9mm), Wolmarans, van Schalkwyk.

Bottom of the barrel right out the gate. :lol:

 

[vansleuths]

And more importantly Masipa and the 2 assessors know this.
My first reaction when he said this was ..............noooooooooooooooo no way !! can you get away with that.
I was waiting for Nel to jump up and argue the point.

But I then realised............................why would Nel argue the point because there is NO point.
Witnesses all the way through the trial have had the choice of being seen or not seen..............simple.

If Roux had witnesses that didn't want to be seen or heard then the State would have accommodated this too......and so would the court.
If Roux had witnesses that had massive evidence to clear his clients name and maybe allow an acquittal then they would have been called ....................behind closed doors or away from tv that you can be assured.

Nel didn't challenge this because he knows the judge is no fool and sees this attempt as what it is.......................farcical and desperate IMO

BIB

The precedence so far in South Africa has always been to have trials that were not televised. The fact that this trial was televised has set a new precedence and this brings its own positives and negatives. Roux will focus on the negatives that he believes have impacted his client negatively.

Witnesses can be forced to testify, but neither the PT nor the DT want to subpoena a witness because it can make for a hostile situation.

Mind you, I don't believe Roux had any more witnesses lined up, but again, he has to set the wheels in motion for a potential appeal.

 

[vansleuths]

I realize everyone has their "gut feelings" on what may or may not unfold in court Thursday. Since I am not a lawyer, I'm guessing no one is too interested in my "gut feeling" but decided to share it anyway. Also, what will happen VS what should happen - are 2 different things entirely. If I was predicting what "should" happen - OP would be found guilty of pre-meditated murder & receive a life sentence. Bail revoked immediately, upon the reading of the verdict.

Based on what I've heard/seen in court, along with what I feel a Judge such as Masipa would view as "justice" served, I believe on Sept 11th, there is a good chance the following might take place:

1. Judge M will finish her verdict summation in a single day. She will not want the media speculating on her outcome before the following day's completion. So she will do everything possible to tie up verdict in a single day (as long as there are no issues & it's a normal length day in court)

2. Oscar will NOT be found guilty,of "pre-meditated" murder
3. Oscar will be found guilty of murder (either "dolus directus" or "dolus eventualis")
4. Oscar will be found guilty of the other 3 charges (Tasha's, sunroof & ammo charge)

5. Oscar's sentencing for the above (ammo, sunroof, Tasha's) charges, will result in fines & non-jail time. If any time given, will run concurrently with murder charge.
6. Oscar's sentence for murder will be approx 15-20 years. (I believe the min. sentence for "directus" is 15 years if no previous conviction. I would guess 15 yrs given, but the fact OP obviously lied & changed "direction" so many times, Masipa may add a few extra years.

Re: BAIL & APPEAL
7. Judge M will grant "leave on appeal" (not sure if I'm calling it by it's correct term) - she will grant his right to an appeal. (She feels confident that case & evidence all handled fairly and by the law. She is not worried about a reversal.)
8. Judge M will not grant bail this time around for Pistorius. As a convicted murderer and her view that there is a slim chance of any reversal on appeal, she will get his jail time started. She may however, wait until sentencing to revoke his bail, allowing him time to get his things in order for prison. If she does allow this, she will place him under house arrest, not allowed to leave his Uncle's home. (I would disagree with this decision 100%. I believe Oscar would never consider entering prison for any term more than a year. He will "disappear" first before allowing that.)

9. If Judge M were to find OP guilty of CH (I do NOT think she will), I believe she will definitely allow bail pending sentencing (and possibly pending appeal). However, if she did find him guilty of CH, she will sentence him to jail time for at least 3-5 years, not probation or house arrest.

10. Finally, I believe Oscar's team will fight strongly for bail while waiting for appeal. They will take it to the highest court level possible and likely win a reprieve at some stage - some court granting OP his bail while waiting for the appeal. (He will then disappear closer to when appeal ruling ready to be addressed.)

Whatever is to happen Thursday, it should be riveting. I of course, am not a lawyer, so my 10 POINTS above are simply "best guess" based on what I have followed in the courtroom & what I feel would be fair & just, based on the S.A. legal system as best I understand it. (Re: OP "disappearing" if found guilty of murder - this is based on his lack of accepting responsibility for anything that goes wrong in his life.)

I enjoyed reading this, thank you. If you added three more points, we could take a quote out of Nel's HOA and call it 4MrsB's bakers dozen.

 

[vansleuths]

What “disability”?!

(A 9mm makes a great equalizer, don’t you think?)

Oscar has told the world 1000 times that he’s NOT disabled.

All of a sudden on the night of Feb 14 2013, he instantly becomes a terrified, pathetic, helpless basket case.

Well, it certainly wasn't Reeva Steenkamp who walked out of that house.


“I don’t see myself as disabled. There’s nothing I can’t do that able-bodied athletes can do.”
- Oscar Pistorius

“I cannot see any difference between disabled and able-bodied. Anyone who regards himself as “normal” has disabilities of some kind or another of his own. I can do whatever I wish to.”
- Oscar Pistorius

“I’m not disabled, I just don’t have any legs.”
- Oscar Pistorius

"I like it when someone tells me I can’t do something. I tell them to bring it on."
- Oscar Pistorius

BIB

I really do understand OP's rationale for minimizing his disability. I have a disability myself but no one outside of my family knows about it. I can go to work day in and day out and present myself as "normal", but it's when I get home and surrounded by loved ones that I can let my guard down.

I don't excuse OP's actions because of his disability, I'm only saying I can believe that he would be afraid when he is alone at home. Also, yes a gun is a tremendous equalizer, but there's always that fear when you're alone in the dark and hear a noise and I suspect this is even more so in SA.