Theory Thread - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

[soozieqtips]

Like many, I await anxiously for the verdict to be delivered. Like many, I have reached my own conclusions on what this verdict may be. In all honesty, I would be amazed if Oscar was not found guilty of murder. Oscar's testimony alone was damning in itself and I do not believe that the defence raised sufficient reasonable doubt regarding the prosecution's case. The most damaging evidence, in my opinion, was that of the four 'ear witnesses' who heard a terrified female screaming. Whilst Roux did a very good attack job on them, I believe they withstood the barrage. The very fact that there were four of them adds weight to their evidence, even though they might have differed on some minor points, one must look at the big picture. The defence could not disprove the screams occurred, nor could they prove that Oscar screamed like a woman, although they alluded to it. In fact, their own acoustics expert conceded that the witnesses could have been correct in what they heard when cross-examined by Nel. Not long to go now......

BBM - especially damning was Dr Stipp's evidence of hearing two intermingled voices, one male and one female. Despite unfairly accusing Stipp of perjuring himself to help the State's case - at no point did Roux ever manage to satisfactorily dispute what Stipp said he heard. A male and female voice.

 

[Mr Fossil]

I hadn't realised until now that the Defence Heads of Argument puts forward no argument at all for Counts 2, 3 and 4, it merely restates the charges; I wonder why? Perhaps you can't argue the unarguable. The Prosecution's Heads of Argument covers all 4 counts. Have I missed something?

 

[Mr Fossil]

BBM - especially damning was Dr Stipp's evidence of hearing two intermingled voices, one male and one female. Despite unfairly accusing Stipp of perjuring himself to help the State's case - at no point did Roux ever manage to satisfactorily dispute what Stipp said he heard. A male and female voice.

I think that's why Roux spent so long cross examining Stipp and adding Annexure A to the Heads - he knows that Stipp's evidence is damning to OP's version and he's got to significantly devalue it.

 

[JuneBug67]

I will happily come back and grovel if I'm wrong, but I think there are going to be an awful lot of disappointed people here. I will be surprised if the verdict is not culpable homicide or less with some eventual mitigation in sentencing due to his disability and remorse. The likely order of shots first, bat second leaves ample reasonable doubt for a targeted murder. Everything else can be explained, even if it not intuitive.

 

[fox1lady]

Haha, love this

www.zapiro.com/cartoon/1501124-130224st#.VAnpWvldWWk

 

[Cherwell]

I will happily come back and grovel if I'm wrong, but I think there are going to be an awful lot of disappointed people here. I will be surprised if the verdict is not culpable homicide or less with some eventual mitigation in sentencing due to his disability and remorse. The likely order of shots first, bat second leaves ample reasonable doubt for a targeted murder. Everything else can be explained, even if it not intuitive.

Remorse? REMORSE? What ****ing remorse? :jawdrop:

 

[Val1]

I will happily come back and grovel if I'm wrong, but I think there are going to be an awful lot of disappointed people here. I will be surprised if the verdict is not culpable homicide or less with some eventual mitigation in sentencing due to his disability and remorse. The likely order of shots first, bat second leaves ample reasonable doubt for a targeted murder. Everything else can be explained, even if it not intuitive.

I will certainly be very surprised if the judge comes back believing that the gunshots were first. With a woman's terrified/bloodcurdling screams that were testified to ending well after Roux's time of 3:12 for the gunshots, added to the ME's evidence that the headshot would have immediately not only stopped any screams but that death would have been pretty much instantaneous thus leaving very little time for any arterial blood spurts to be able to occur due to not only the body shutting down but also the added blow of heavy blood loss from the hip.

Add to that OP's own testimony that RS was still breathing(apparently when he first broke through the door to get to her), then not(as he wept for he didn't know how long over her-sometime in between making phone calls, racing around unlocking doors, etc), then the blood splatter on the walls as he carried her down to the front entrance apparently showing some arterial spray which apparently cannot occur after death.

So... basically you believe it was OP screaming the whole time and especially the bloodcurdling terrified screams heard after the 3:12 time(a five minute time interval guesstimated by OP by doing an after the crime walkthrough of the scene) that Roux says OP shot and killed RS, up to and including while he bashed at the toilet door loud enough to simulate gunshots heard by all the PT neighbour witnesses(didn't some "noise" even wake Ms.Stander who had been sound asleep even further away?), even finally waking the DT's witness next door with the last bang so she was able to hear OP's wailing while he waited for "help" to arrive and the lights/traffic coming down the street were witnessed?
Plus you think RS was able to stay alive long enough after that gunshot that blew her head up like that "zombiestopper" did to a watermelon video, for OP to have heard her still breathing after he broke through the door to her(in his guesstimate about five minutes later), dragged her out into the bathroom, then ran around collecting phones and making phone calls, opening doors etc, and was still alive enough to cause arterial spray on the walls as she was carried down the stairs, not to mention that OP then needed to keep his or CS's fingers shoved down her throat to supposedly "help her breathe" until Dr.Stipp got there?

 

[Val1]

I think that's why Roux spent so long cross examining Stipp and adding Annexure A to the Heads - he knows that Stipp's evidence is damning to OP's version and he's got to significantly devalue it.

There's also the small matter that iirc Johnson's testimony corroborated the distinct male and female voices, so unless Roux thinks he managed to get Johnson's testimony thrown out somehow I don't see how Stipp's will be that easy to dismiss.

Edit: This is a very good read on both testimonies that spoke of the male/female voices.

http://juror13lw.wordpress.com/2014/03/06/oscar-pistorius-trial-day-4/

 

[Giles]

I will happily come back and grovel if I'm wrong, but I think there are going to be an awful lot of disappointed people here. I will be surprised if the verdict is not culpable homicide or less with some eventual mitigation in sentencing due to his disability and remorse. The likely order of shots first, bat second leaves ample reasonable doubt for a targeted murder. Everything else can be explained, even if it not intuitive.

BBM - Can I ask you how the jeans outside, below the toilet window can be explained?

I am not trying to be snippy. It is a genuine question. I have not been able to see how this is possible on Oscar's version.

 

[foxbluff]

OP 0020 14 Feb - http://www.websleuths.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=57982&d=1409587903

Like Moller, I don't own a cell phone. Unlike Moller, I know next to nothing about them.

I understand that cell phones "ping" off the nearest cell tower. I want to ask about the 06:54:45 phone (?)connection because it's the first time that morning that it pings on 3G Shere AH NGA instead of the Silverwoods tower... certainly making it appear that the phone "left" Silverwood Ests.

Imo, by that time of day, as more and more neighbors would be learning about the shooting at OP's home and telephoning each other and their friends, etc., the Silverwoods tower must have been buzzing with high-volume activity.

Is there a limit to how many calls a cell tower can handle at once? If so, and assuming the Silverwoods tower had all the calls it could handle at 06:54:45, wouldn't activity on OP's phone ping off one of the next nearest towers even though the phone itself had not moved? (P.S. TY Mr.Fos for all the time you've devoted to these great charts!)

 

[foxbluff]

I found it astonishing when Roux said this, and still find it astonishing that a so called 'Legal Expert' might repeat this. It is utter garbage.

The defence can call anyone they like to testify. If they refuse, then they can be subpoenaed.

I totally agree with you on both points !!

BBM... Don't you expect Roux is already prepared with a lame excuse? Something on the order of "Yes, but a subpoenaed witness tends to be a hostile witness."

 

[Mr Fossil]

OP 0020 14 Feb - http://www.websleuths.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=57982&d=1409587903

Like Moller, I don't own a cell phone. Unlike Moller, I know next to nothing about them.

I understand that cell phones "ping" off the nearest cell tower. I want to ask about the 06:54:45 phone (?)connection because it's the first time that morning that it pings on 3G Shere AH NGA instead of the Silverwoods tower... certainly making it appear that the phone "left" Silverwood Ests.

Imo, by that time of day, as more and more neighbors would be learning about the shooting at OP's home and telephoning each other and their friends, etc., the Silverwoods tower must have been buzzing with high-volume activity.

Is there a limit to how many calls a cell tower can handle at once? If so, and assuming the Silverwoods tower had all the calls it could handle at 06:54:45, wouldn't activity on OP's phone ping off one of the next nearest towers even though the phone itself had not moved? (P.S. TY Mr.Fos for all the time you've devoted to these great charts!)

First of all I should explain that the time of many of the GPRS connections are estimated to be within a range and actual times chosen to, where possible, cover calls and be contiguous etc. The 06:44:55 Silverlakes for instance is between 06:40 and 06:45 (from Moller's phone usage chart). It is not in bold because I have estimated it to 06:44:55 to cover the 2 SMS's, one of which is definitely between 06:40-06:45 and the second between 06:45-06:50. (I have a lot more detail on my version of the charts). So, again, the SMS times are estimates.

Likewise, the 06:54:45 Shere signal could be between 06:50 and 06:55. And the 06:55:15 Silverlakes could be as late at 07:00. I have made them contiguous but they may not be.

So ... the trip to Shere could last anything up to 15 minutes. I am showing about 10 minutes.

My suggestion is that the person who had the phone went to Hazeldean Square briefly. They would have already had the phone on them. Perhaps they went for a coffee or to try to do something with the phone, in which case maybe they realised it couldn't be sorted that quickly. Hazeldean Square is just down the road from OP's house and is in the Shere AH tower area. I would also note that the phone has suddenly come to life at this time and, if you agree with me that GPRS is an always on service, then the phone's signal has been reactivated (turned on or taken out of Airplane mode) briefly. So to answer your question, it is possible that the 3G signal from Silverlakes was congested but I would expect a 2G Silverlakes signal to be picked up first rather than a 3G from Shere.

Also note that it is possible to hold on to a strong signal for a while whilst being in another cell tower's range. Negotiation of handover is dependent on a number of factors including relative signal strength, congestion, and interference (buildings, the weather etc.).

I put these charts up as pure data from the phones, without any other external information or interpretation. I'm working on more chart updates but am not sure if they'll be ready before the verdict. One has a consolidated view of all things OP, including other events e.g. a bit like Roux's chronology. I'm also looking at who was where, when. And finally I'm hoping to piece together a total theory for what I think may have happened. It is quite different to OP's version (no surprises there). I shall carry on regardless of the verdict as I'm interested in what the data and testimony can truly show us.

 

[Lux et Veritas]

Should OP be convicted of murder/CH and actually sent to prison (if he doesn’t disappear first), it’s almost guaranteed he would be housed in a separate area*, away from the general population. This really would be a requirement to guarantee his safety. Life in SA prisons is brutal enough - without his legs (how long do you think he could keep them in general?), he really would be the easiest of targets; his life would no doubt be very short. What hardened inmate wouldn’t want to make a name for himself, to claim OSCAR PISTORIUS on his belt?

* No doubt Uncle Arnold and Auntie Lois would generously “gift” the SA prison system with a brand new, special annex - part of it , OP’s own little prison paradise, complete with gym and track.

 

[44ALLAN]

I found it astonishing when Roux said this, and still find it astonishing that a so called 'Legal Expert' might repeat this. It is utter garbage.

The defence can call anyone they like to testify. If they refuse, then they can be subpoenaed.

And more importantly Masipa and the 2 assessors know this.
My first reaction when he said this was ..............noooooooooooooooo no way !! can you get away with that.
I was waiting for Nel to jump up and argue the point.

But I then realised............................why would Nel argue the point because there is NO point.
Witnesses all the way through the trial have had the choice of being seen or not seen..............simple.

If Roux had witnesses that didn't want to be seen or heard then the State would have accommodated this too......and so would the court.
If Roux had witnesses that had massive evidence to clear his clients name and maybe allow an acquittal then they would have been called ....................behind closed doors or away from tv that you can be assured.

Nel didn't challenge this because he knows the judge is no fool and sees this attempt as what it is.......................farcical and desperate IMO

 

[Mr Fossil]

Further to the last paragraph of my post #1672

An example of what the phone data and the testimony together can show:

We see short GPRS activations on OP's 0020 phone at around 03:30* and 03:53*.

Looking at the testimony we find that at about 03:30 OP is left briefly on his own. This is not explicitly stated but we know that Dr Stipp followed by Carice leave him to talk to NetCare. The call to NetCare is placed by Stander, who is outside the house, at 03:27:06 and is said to last about 5 minutes. This period covers the 03:30 activation for 27 seconds. A coincidence?

Reeva is pronounced dead by the paramedics at 03:50. After this OP goes upstairs to fetch Reeva's handbag. He disappears on his own into the bedroom and is heard walking in the bathroom (on the tiles) by Carice. His phone activates at 03:53 for 49 seconds. Again, is this a coincidence? Roux places him going upstairs at 03:50 (e.g. exactly the time Reeva is pronounced dead) but this is highly unlikely. The paramedics would have told OP and others first, checked he was ok, asked if there was anyone they should call, and then asked for Reeva's Id. 03:53 sounds far more likely to me.

The phone data estimated times not only tally with the testimony but also allows a more accurate timeline to be constructed. And, in doing so, it also starts to show what is possible and what is not possible time-wise (e.g. which bits of OP's story probably didn't happen when he says they did).

That said, another scenario is possible. The estimated 03:30 activation could be at any time up to 03:53 (see footnote). He may not activate the phone when Stipp and Carice leave him, but this may be the activation upstairs. The latter activation may be when he's dithering about whether to contact Divaris. He would be nervous of using the phone because the police arrive at about 03:55 (Van Rensburg and Prinsloo). The police have the accurate times for all my estimates and would be far better placed to do this type of analysis, of which I have many more examples.

* The ranges from Moller's phone usage chart for these times are 03:30-03:53 and 03:53-03:53:30 respectively. The first time is therefore very much an estimate but it's uncanny that it tallies with OP being on his own. The latter time is pretty accurate because the range is so narrow.

 

[Hoosen_Fenger]

I totally agree with you on both points !!

BBM... Don't you expect Roux is already prepared with a lame excuse? Something on the order of "Yes, but a subpoenaed witness tends to be a hostile witness."

I sense that you are worried FB.

Roux is doing a brilliant job. If I shot my next door neighbour, burned his house down, then as the Fire Brigade dampened down the burning embers I sat on the Fire Engine & had a Tattoo on my arm saying 'I JUST DID ALL THIS!' - Then I would definitely get Roux to defend me.

The reason is, he is doing everything in his skill set & knowledge base to work for his client. It is impressive. It really is.

Even more impressive, is that he took the job on, knowing the facts of the case already. ( Perhaps akin to my other neighbour, telling him that not only did he witness my wicked acts, but I had told him three weeks previous and he had not a hope of winning.)

It is a losing battle.

Roux is brilliant. I admire & respect the guy. However, he is trying (as my beloved American friends would say,) trying to put Lipstick on a Pig. Even if he does, it will still be a Pig.

Justice will prevail and OP will go to Jail. Also, I have said this before on here, I think I am in a very small minority that thinks he will not get bail. Bookmark this and come back & kick me in the Nuts if I am wrong.

 

[44ALLAN]

I think that's why Roux spent so long cross examining Stipp and adding Annexure A to the Heads - he knows that Stipp's evidence is damning to OP's version and he's got to significantly devalue it.

You mean..................'try' and significantly devalue it surely?

He never managed that at all.

 

[44ALLAN]

I will certainly be very surprised if the judge comes back believing that the gunshots were first. With a woman's terrified/bloodcurdling screams that were testified to ending well after Roux's time of 3:12 for the gunshots, added to the ME's evidence that the headshot would have immediately not only stopped any screams but that death would have been pretty much instantaneous thus leaving very little time for any arterial blood spurts to be able to occur due to not only the body shutting down but also the added blow of heavy blood loss from the hip.

Add to that OP's own testimony that RS was still breathing(apparently when he first broke through the door to get to her), then not(as he wept for he didn't know how long over her-sometime in between making phone calls, racing around unlocking doors, etc), then the blood splatter on the walls as he carried her down to the front entrance apparently showing some arterial spray which apparently cannot occur after death.

So... basically you believe it was OP screaming the whole time and especially the bloodcurdling terrified screams heard after the 3:12 time(a five minute time interval guesstimated by OP by doing an after the crime walkthrough of the scene) that Roux says OP shot and killed RS, up to and including while he bashed at the toilet door loud enough to simulate gunshots heard by all the PT neighbour witnesses(didn't some "noise" even wake Ms.Stander who had been sound asleep even further away?), even finally waking the DT's witness next door with the last bang so she was able to hear OP's wailing while he waited for "help" to arrive and the lights/traffic coming down the street were witnessed?
Plus you think RS was able to stay alive long enough after that gunshot that blew her head up like that "zombiestopper" did to a watermelon video, for OP to have heard her still breathing after he broke through the door to her(in his guesstimate about five minutes later), dragged her out into the bathroom, then ran around collecting phones and making phone calls, opening doors etc, and was still alive enough to cause arterial spray on the walls as she was carried down the stairs, not to mention that OP then needed to keep his or CS's fingers shoved down her throat to supposedly "help her breathe" until Dr.Stipp got there?

Val......................you forget to mention the bit about him smashing the bedroom doors in and turning the alarm off ..................c'mon keep up fgs :innocent:

 

[foxbluff]

First of all I should explain that the time of many of the GPRS connections are estimated to be within a range and actual times chosen to, where possible, cover calls and be contiguous etc. The 06:44:55 Silverlakes for instance is between 06:40 and 06:45 (from Moller's phone usage chart). It is not in bold because I have estimated it to 06:44:55 to cover the 2 SMS's, one of which is definitely between 06:40-06:45 and the second between 06:45-06:50. (I have a lot more detail on my version of the charts). So, again, the SMS times are estimates.

Likewise, the 06:54:45 Shere signal could be between 06:50 and 06:55. And the 06:55:15 Silverlakes could be as late at 07:00. I have made them contiguous but they may not be.

So ... the trip to Shere could last anything up to 15 minutes. I am showing about 10 minutes.

My suggestion is that the person who had the phone went to Hazeldean Square briefly. They would have already had the phone on them. Perhaps they went for a coffee or to try to do something with the phone, in which case maybe they realised it couldn't be sorted that quickly. Hazeldean Square is just down the road from OP's house and is in the Shere AH tower area. I would also note that the phone has suddenly come to life at this time and, if you agree with me that GPRS is an always on service, then the phone's signal has been reactivated (turned on or taken out of Airplane mode) briefly. So to answer your question, it is possible that the 3G signal from Silverlakes was congested but I would expect a 2G Silverlakes signal to be picked up first rather than a 3G from Shere.
Also note that it is possible to hold on to a strong signal for a while whilst being in another cell tower's range. Negotiation of handover is dependent on a number of factors including relative signal strength, congestion, and interference (buildings, the weather etc.).

I put these charts up as pure data from the phones, without any other external information or interpretation. I'm working on more chart updates but am not sure if they'll be ready before the verdict. One has a consolidated view of all things OP, including other events e.g. a bit like Roux's chronology. I'm also looking at who was where, when. And finally I'm hoping to piece together a total theory for what I think may have happened. It is quite different to OP's version (no surprises there). I shall carry on regardless of the verdict as I'm interested in what the data and testimony can truly show us.

Wow...and TY... I hadn't expected such a detailed reply and enjoyed reading the additional info you included i.e.: Also note that it is possible to hold on to a strong signal for a while whilst being in another cell tower's range. Negotiation of handover is dependent on a number of factors including relative signal strength, congestion, and interference (buildings, the weather etc.).

UBM - Please do continue working on these charts after the verdict as we'll still want and need them.

BBM - I see what you're saying. Due to the massive volume of calls I think were happening that morning during subj timeframe, I suppose it's possible that both 3G and 2G Silverlakes towers could have been overloaded at the same time. If not then, I bet they were when the media broke the news of the shooting later that morning at IIRC 8:05AM !!

 

[Cherwell]

If Roux had witnesses that didn't want to be seen or heard then the State would have accommodated this too......and so would the court.

As happened with Professor Saayman.