Theory Thread - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

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I will happily come back and grovel if I'm wrong, but I think there are going to be an awful lot of disappointed people here. I will be surprised if the verdict is not culpable homicide or less with some eventual mitigation in sentencing due to his disability and remorse. The likely order of shots first, bat second leaves ample reasonable doubt for a targeted murder. Everything else can be explained, even if it not intuitive.

BIB

I believe most on this forum see OP getting murder or pre-meditated murder, so JuneBug67, I do welcome another point of view.

I'm also of the camp that this is a murder case, but I really won't be surprised if he gets CH and that the sentence be reduced to a non-custodial sentence, perhaps not during the sentencing phase of this trial, but on appeal.

I believe Roux has done the best job possible to push his client's case forward and now we just have to wait and see how much doubt he has created.
 
BBM - Can I ask you how the jeans outside, below the toilet window can be explained?

I am not trying to be snippy. It is a genuine question. I have not been able to see how this is possible on Oscar's version.

I know this question wasn't addressed to me.

Nel entered the picture into evidence, but he didn't lead any evidence to offer an explanation for the jeans on the ground outside the toilet window, nor did the defence bring anything up.

Thus, I believe Masipa won't put much weight on this piece of evidence. But, there's lots of other evidence that will sway her one way or another that there was an argument that evening.
 
Should OP be convicted of murder/CH and actually sent to prison (if he doesn’t disappear first), it’s almost guaranteed he would be housed in a separate area*, away from the general population. This really would be a requirement to guarantee his safety. Life in SA prisons is brutal enough - without his legs (how long do you think he could keep them in general?), he really would be the easiest of targets; his life would no doubt be very short. What hardened inmate wouldn’t want to make a name for himself, to claim OSCAR PISTORIUS on his belt?

* No doubt Uncle Arnold and Auntie Lois would generously “gift” the SA prison system with a brand new, special annex - part of it , OP’s own little prison paradise, complete with gym and track.

BIB It would be a shame if this was the case, but I suspect you are correct Lux.

The problem is that if he is housed alone, that would mean solitary confinement and many prisoners crumble under the strain of this kind of punishment simply because people are social by nature so this will bring its own challenges for OP.

It will also show that OP gets special treatment because there are many articles of disabled people that are in SA prisons who make use of wheelchairs. Mind you, OP is a "celebrity" and inmates could try to make a name for themselves. It's partly why quasi celebrity Paris Hilton was housed in solitary when she did time on one of her stints.
 
I sense that you are worried FB. :)

Roux is doing a brilliant job. If I shot my next door neighbour, burned his house down, then as the Fire Brigade dampened down the burning embers I sat on the Fire Engine & had a Tattoo on my arm saying 'I JUST DID ALL THIS!' - Then I would definitely get Roux to defend me.

The reason is, he is doing everything in his skill set & knowledge base to work for his client. It is impressive. It really is.

Even more impressive, is that he took the job on, knowing the facts of the case already. ( Perhaps akin to my other neighbour, telling him that not only did he witness my wicked acts, but I had told him three weeks previous and he had not a hope of winning.)

It is a losing battle.

Roux is brilliant. I admire & respect the guy. However, he is trying (as my beloved American friends would say,) trying to put Lipstick on a Pig. Even if he does, it will still be a Pig.

Justice will prevail and OP will go to Jail. Also, I have said this before on here, I think I am in a very small minority that thinks he will not get bail. Bookmark this and come back & kick me in the Nuts if I am wrong. :)

I totally agree with you, Hoosen. My Lady will convict him of murder and she will deny him bail. (She will also allow appeal.)

While higher courts may acquit him and let him walk free, it will NOT be on her watch.
 
Why wasn't this brilliant article published before the trial? It would have saved lots of :lookingitup:

“... GroundUp asked a lawyer to answer them.

These are the questions canvassed: (I’ve included some text)

Are all murder trials in South Africa decided by a judge and two assessors?

When the judge reaches her judgment, must the assessors agree? Must a judgment be unanimous?

What is reasonable doubt? Is it precisely defined?
...

This means that the judge and assessors must be satisfied that there is no reasonable possibility that the accused is innocent. Not any possibility – but only reasonable possibilities count in favour of the accused.

The rationale for the higher test is that everyone’s freedom is fundamental; that a criminal penalty is a very grave harm to impose; and that it is better to let the guilty go free than to punish the innocent. Requiring proof “beyond reasonable doubt” means that criminal punishment is imposed only when the court is very sure of the accused’s guilt. It is hard to give any definition more precise than that.

Must the judge write the judgment, or can it be delivered orally?

Must the judge provide reasons for his or her decision?

Yes. This is a fundamental duty of any judge deciding any matter.

After the prosecution has presented its case, can the defence ask the judge to dismiss the case immediately for lack of evidence?

If a person is found not guilty, can the victim’s family still sue him or her in a civil court?

I’ve been charged with murder. Is my defence going to be costly?

Is there a limit on how long a prosecutor or defence attorney can question someone?


The right to cross-examine witnesses is vitally important and is constitutionally protected. The prosecution and the defence are given the chance to control the cross-examination and to decide what questions to put to witnesses. But the presiding judge can curtail excessive or deliberate time-wasting.

Can either side stall by calling a long list of witnesses?

Lawyers often try stalling tactics. But in a criminal trial, this tactic is unlikely to work. It may just backfire.

Presiding judges can curtail the questioning of each witness. In addition, if a witness does not appear of their own free will, the court can compel them to testify only if the evidence is essential.

So trying to stall by calling irrelevant witnesses is subject to some judicial control, and is likely anyhow not to work: if a witness has nothing to contribute, the judge can cut short her testimony.

What alternative is there for a witness who is an atheist or does not wish to take an oath to God before taking the stand?

Does an accused have to take the stand?

Do all witnesses have to be identified to both the prosecution and defence at the beginning of the trial?


The prosecution must compile a list of witnesses so that the accused can know who it is planning to call. But the prosecution may call a surprise witness with the judge’s permission if there is good reason.

The defence doesn’t have to tell the prosecution who it plans to call.

Can a witness refuse to answer questions?

Can a witness refuse to take the stand?


Any witness who is served with a subpoena must arrive at court, and must take the stand when required to do so.

Every person can be called as a witness unless the law expressly excludes her from giving evidence. Again, the number of exclusions is small. One has already been mentioned: the accused cannot be forced to testify by the prosecution. Other examples are persons who have serious mental illness or are mute.

What restrictions is a witness under once she is on the stand?

What are the different types of killing you can be tried for in South Africa?


In South Africa there are only two types: murder (the intentional, unlawful killing of a human being) and culpable homicide (the negligent, unlawful killing of a human being, which is similar to the crime some countries call “manslaughter”).
...
It is true that in South Africa we speak of “premeditated murder” (planned in advance), which attracts a harsher sentence than murder that is intentional but not premeditated (section 51 of the Criminal Law Amendment Act, 1997). But that does not make it a separate crime, distinct from “normal” murder. It is simply murder – though the legislature has said that when a murder was premeditated it should be particularly severely punished.

If the prosecution makes the case for murder but the judge decides murder has not been proven, can she find the accused guilty of a different crime?

Yes, the judge can find the accused guilty of a range of lesser crimes, for example culpable homicide.

If an accused is found guilty, is there a separate part of the trial for sentencing?

Yes. The main part of the trial is to decide whether the accused is guilty. The shorter, second phase, if the accused is convicted, is to decide the appropriate sentence.

Usually the sentence and conviction stages are part of the same continuous trial. Even then, the sentencing stage is noticeably different: it is relatively informal, with less rigid court processes, easier rules of evidence, and a generally more open-ended, discretionary enquiry by the court. Both the accused and the prosecution are entitled to make representations to the court on what sentence is fair and appropriate.

Can an accused be called back to the stand during the sentencing part of the trial?

The prosecution cannot compel the accused to testify at any stage of the trial. But the accused may elect to testify again, for example if she wants to express remorse, which is an important consideration in sentencing.

What is the typical length of a sentence for murder in South Africa?

What is the maximum sentence? Is there a "life" sentence and is it really for life?

Life imprisonment – which is indeed a real sentence and does mean the whole of the offender’s life – is the longest sentence a court can impose.
...
But in the case of particularly serious forms of murder, like premeditated murder and the murder of a police officer or state witnesses, as well as aggravated rape, terrorism and crimes against humanity, the legislature has made life imprisonment the minimum sentence. This was widely seen as too harsh and wrong because it takes away judges’ discretion to craft a sentence appropriate to the particular offender and her circumstances. But judges do retain some discretion: they can depart from the minimum sentence of life imprisonment if they are satisfied that there are “substantial and compelling circumstances” that justify the imposition of a lesser sentence.

The mandatory minimum sentence for “normal” murder is 15 years – except for repeat offenders, where the minimum is longer. No minimum sentence is prescribed for culpable homicide – the sentencing judge has a very wide discretion to decide how “culpable” (blameworthy) the offender’s negligent killing was.

After how long can a person serving a sentence apply for parole?

The parole board has a wide discretion to grant parole, although the law puts limits in the case of more serious offences. Offenders sentenced to life imprisonment must serve 25 years before being eligible for parole, and even if they are released will remain on parole until they die. Offenders sentenced to more than two years (but less than life) in prison must serve half their sentence before being eligible for parole.

If someone is found guilty can he or she always appeal?

Yes, any convicted person always has a right to appeal. The Constitution guarantees this. The right to appeal doesn’t always mean a full appeal. It means simply that you are entitled to ask another court to look at your case after you have been convicted. The higher court can refuse you leave to appeal after considering your application.

Which courts can be appealed to and who grants leave to appeal?

Where the accused has been convicted by a single judge of the High Court, she may seek leave to appeal against her conviction or sentence (or both) by applying to the same judge who convicted her. That judge must decide whether there is a reasonable prospect that an appeal court would reach a different finding. If the judge decides the appeal does have reasonable prospects of success, she can grant leave to appeal either to a full court (three judges) of the High Court or, if the matter is difficult, straight to the Supreme Court of Appeal.

If the single High Court judge refuses leave to appeal, that decision is itself appealable: the accused may petition the Supreme Court of Appeal, asking it to overturn the single judge’s refusal and grant leave to appeal
.

The Constitutional Court is the highest court. It decides who can bring appeals to it. Normally it gives leave to appeal to it only in constitutional cases, but it can also decide a case if it involves an arguable point of law of general public importance.

If someone is sentenced to prison but appeals, does he or she still go to prison while the appeal is being heard?

It depends. Much like when the accused is first arrested and charged, the state may imprison her pending the outcome of proceedings, but she is entitled to apply for bail.

The basic rule is that the conviction and sentence are not suspended pending the appeal, so the appellant must go to prison in the meantime. But the court that convicted the appellant may, upon application and if it deems it appropriate, release the accused on bail.


On appeal, can witnesses be called again?
No.
An appeal court studies the record of the trial proceedings and hears oral argument from each side’s lawyers. It usually does not hear any new evidence. The purpose of the appeal is to decide whether the trial court reached the right conclusion on the evidence before it – not to conduct a re-trial. But in very rare cases, an appeal court can allow new evidence in.

On appeal, are the facts of the case carefully looked at again or only the interpretation of the law?

Both the law and the facts are reconsidered. But in South African law, appeal courts pay very great respect to the trial court’s factual and credibility findings. This means these are not easily overturned. An appeal court is not strictly confined to the legal issues, but its power to overturn the trial court’s factual findings is limited. It will show deference to the court that saw first-hand the witness testimony, physical evidence, and so on, and may depart from the trial court’s factual findings only if the inference it drew from the evidence before it was clearly wrong.

http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/O...ing-tried-for-murder-in-South-Africa-20140516
 
I totally agree....and would ADD this as well:
Uncle Arnold would have OP's "guards" on his own payroll (much like Frank I imagine). The prison would not necessarily be aware (or likely, look the other way with the right incentive) of this. These guards would watch over OP like a hawk. Make sure he had whatever he needed and no one came near him to cause harm. His "cell" (suite) would be customized. And the prison would be thrilled to have the funds or improvements to the prison that Uncle Arnold would provide in exchange. (Except I still think OP won't spend any time in prison. I think he will just "disappear".)

And even then, there’s NO guarantees in prison - especially a notorious prison system like SA. All sorts of brutal crimes and “unsavory” things happen in prison - inmates mysteriously die or commit “suicide”.

For the right price, with the perfect plan, with the right “players” (including guards), even Oscar Pistorius could be accessed. OP and his family know this.

This is why I’m 100% convinced that OP will never, ever allow himself to be shipped off to prison.
 
OP is not getting bail. I said it before and I'll say it again. I know some people think otherwise but this is an open and shut murder case with witnesses, a lying defendant and heavy circumstantial evidence. There are no examples of corruption, no gaping holes in the evidence, nor signs of a mistrial due to legal mistakes. For bail pending appeal to be successful, there has to be new evidence or obvious reasons within the trial that would produce a high likelihood of an appeal being successful. Masipa will shut that door and double bolt it.

When you have one of the best defence lawyers in the country on your side, surely there is going to be some muddeid water but this is a textbook conviction on murder IMO.
 
OP is not getting bail. I said it before and I'll say it again. I know some people think otherwise but this is an open and shut murder case with witnesses, a lying defendant and heavy circumstantial evidence. There are no examples of corruption, no gaping holes in the evidence, nor signs of a mistrial due to legal mistakes. For bail pending appeal to be successful, there has to be new evidence or obvious reasons within the trial that would produce a high likelihood of an appeal being successful. Masipa will shut that door and double bolt it.

When you have one of the best defence lawyers in the country on your side, surely there is going to be some muddeid water but this is a textbook conviction on murder IMO.

:please: let that be so. It's just OP has had such a charmed life so far, he's NEVER been held accountable. Even spending 2 or 3 yrs in jail would be a hell of shock to his system.

The link I provided in the thread earlier where a wealthy SA land owner, Jewell Crossberg was charged with murder and attempted murder, he got bail while during trial, he also received bail pending an appeal after he was found guilty of murder. He ended up pleading guilty to CH, and served 3 years in jail. :(
 
BIB

The precedence so far in South Africa has always been to have trials that were not televised. The fact that this trial was televised has set a new precedence and this brings its own positives and negatives. Roux will focus on the negatives that he believes have impacted his client negatively.

Witnesses can be forced to testify, but neither the PT nor the DT want to subpoena a witness because it can make for a hostile situation.

Mind you, I don't believe Roux had any more witnesses lined up, but again, he has to set the wheels in motion for a potential appeal.

I totally agree - Roux simply ran out of witnesses who could/would promote OP's story! LOL

Then he has the chutzpah to complain that Nel didn't call Hilton Botha (and other assorted witnesses) - but never called them himself!
 
OP is not getting bail. I said it before and I'll say it again. I know some people think otherwise but this is an open and shut murder case with witnesses, a lying defendant and heavy circumstantial evidence. There are no examples of corruption, no gaping holes in the evidence, nor signs of a mistrial due to legal mistakes. For bail pending appeal to be successful, there has to be new evidence or obvious reasons within the trial that would produce a high likelihood of an appeal being successful. Masipa will shut that door and double bolt it.

When you have one of the best defence lawyers in the country on your side, surely there is going to be some muddeid water but this is a textbook conviction on murder IMO.

I believe you're right. But more importantly, I hope you're right.

I have never understood the circumstances behind "bail pending appeal". It's as if the convicted person gets a "do over", "a 2nd bite at the apple", before even starting his/her sentence. This is not a golf game, calling for a "mulligan". The defendant had their day in court & if verdict is guilty, you thank your lucky stars there is an appeal process. However, you wait out that process while sitting in jail/prison. WHY would the courts (U.S.A, S.A., any country?) give ANYONE a 2nd chance before starting their sentence after all the time, court room expenses & lengthy preparation just exerted? . . . seems strange that it's sometimes not upheld after all that work. I just don't get it!
 
BIB

Masipa will have discretion when it comes to the negligent gun charges, but if she finds him guilty of murder, there is no discretion and minimum jail times are mandatory, 15 years for murder, 25 years for premeditated.

Yes, hopefully.

The South African mandatory minimum sentence regime seems to have been put into place in 1997/8 after public outcry at unfair or insufficient sentencing. Yet mandatory minimum sentencing may be departed from if the court finds significant "special circumstances" or the court is “satisfied that substantial and compelling circumstances exist which justify the imposition of a lesser [sentence].” Of course, on the flipside, the defense may need to work on mitigation if they fear a higher than minimum sentence imposed on their client.
http://www.loc.gov/law/help/sentencing-guidelines/southafrica.php#_ftn81

Special circumstances could include typical mitigations, depending on higher severity, such as - mental health, lack/genuine remorse, influence of alcohol or drugs (wish we knew), immaturity, physical health etc...

Different example - in the case of ‘Combrink v The State’, the trial judge convicted Combrink of murder, dolus eventualis, and sentenced him to 15 years with 5 years suspended, therefore effectively a custodial sentence of 10 years.
In appellate court, the Judge threw out the appeal and upheld the murder conviction. The appeal of the sentence was also dismissed, but the court also set aside the sentence and substituted it with "15 years' imprisonment."
(Sidepoint – Quite satisfying where an appeal upheld or even increased the conviction and when the sentencing appeal is also increased…that is the risk apellants face ;))
http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA/2011/116.html

One of the ongoing issues raised by legal experts was the amount of testimony from Vorster, Derman, social worker Yvette van Schalkwyk or the agent, which seemed more appropriate for the later mitigation process rather than in the trial fighting the charges.
Part of the defense strategy seemed to be holding a secondary race with public relations and image, perhaps the defence may now make more strategic noise about Pistorius as a victim of a serious disability, generalized anxiety disorder and habitual hypervigilance, being devout and family-based, whether or not these factors make any real legal mitigation to follow this pattern – this could lead to rebuttal by aggravating factors from the prosecution.

Interesting article about the history of sentencing in South Africa and the changes and limitations to the mandatory minimum sentencing act: http://www.loc.gov/law/help/sentencing-guidelines/southafrica.php#_ftn81


Presumptive sentencing guidelines, modeled after the Minnesota system. The Commission proposed as one option enacting a statute mandating a sentencing commission to develop guidelines that would provide specific principles (for instance, the gravity of the offense and the offender’s criminal record) for determining presumptively correct sentences.[56] Although courts would be permitted to depart from presumptively correct sentences whenever “special circumstances” were present, they would be required to record such circumstances and their sentences would be subject to appeal.[57]

...The mandatory sentencing regime prohibits the suspension of a mandatory minimum sentence.[65]

The legislation carves out some exceptions. For example, the mandatory minimum sentences do not apply to offenders under the age of eighteen.[66] Significantly, the legislation also permits courts to depart from the mandatory minimum sentences if they are “satisfied that substantial and compelling circumstances exist which justify the imposition of a lesser [sentence].”[67]
 
BIB

I really do understand OP's rationale for minimizing his disability. I have a disability myself but no one outside of my family knows about it. I can go to work day in and day out and present myself as "normal", but it's when I get home and surrounded by loved ones that I can let my guard down.

I don't excuse OP's actions because of his disability, I'm only saying I can believe that he would be afraid when he is alone at home. Also, yes a gun is a tremendous equalizer, but there's always that fear when you're alone in the dark and hear a noise and I suspect this is even more so in SA.

I don’t think OP has minimized his disability at all.

On the contrary, he actively and very aggressively promoted it and parlayed it into a super-ability...a global brand and fortune.

Even if OP’s story was 100% true on all counts - he was on his stumps, in pitch blackness and there was a real (armed) intruder in the toilet - he made sure, by attacking first, that he was the last man standing. That doesn’t sound like terrible “fear” or “disability” to me.

Remember, this guy is a well-documented adrenaline-junkie who deliberately seeks out thrills and danger, almost drunkenly killed himself in a speedboat accident, gets in people’s faces and threatens them, regularly drives 155mph, etc.

The only thing that seems to terrify him is one tiny, soft-spoken black woman.
 
French spell check…

Et tu, Bystanda? = Es-tu, Bystanda?

:kickcan:

Yeah, always a good idea to spell check except the phrase is Latin not French!

Romantically claimed to be Caesar's last words while a group of some 60 conspiring senators, the Liberators, which to Caesar's surprise included his most trusted friend Brutus, stabbed him to death.

Courtesy Wikipedia:
"Et tu, Brute?" (pronounced [ɛt ˈtuː ˈbruːtɛ]) is a Latin phrase meaning "and you, Brutus?" or "and you too, Brutus?", purportedly as the last words of the Roman dictator Julius Caesar to his friend Marcus Brutus at the moment of his assassination. The quotation is widely used in Western culture to signify the utmost betrayal by an unexpected person, such as a friend.

The fame of the quotation is entirely due to its occurrence in William Shakespeare's play Julius Caesar, as Caesar utters these words as he is being stabbed to death, having recognized his friend Brutus among the assassins. However, there is no evidence that Caesar actually said these words.
 
Yeah, always a good idea to spell check except the phrase is Latin not French!

Romantically claimed to be Caesar's last words while a group of some 60 conspiring senators, the Liberators, which to Caesar's surprise included his most trusted friend Brutus, stabbed him to death.

Um... I think they realize the multiple significance of the puns and were being playful on both Caesar, the forum, the context overall and the French derivation.
 
BIB It would be a shame if this was the case, but I suspect you are correct Lux.

The problem is that if he is housed alone, that would mean solitary confinement and many prisoners crumble under the strain of this kind of punishment simply because people are social by nature so this will bring its own challenges for OP.

It will also show that OP gets special treatment because there are many articles of disabled people that are in SA prisons who make use of wheelchairs. Mind you, OP is a "celebrity" and inmates could try to make a name for themselves. It's partly why quasi celebrity Paris Hilton was housed in solitary when she did time on one of her stints.

Essentially, acquitted or convicted, his life will be a mess.

Yes, his global celebrity status would make him Target #1 in prison (there are definite down sides to fame. LOL) And yes, his special treatment on top of that would make him the Holy Grail of Targets. He’d likely have to have a special guard detail 24/7 just to survive.

And as for solitary (or semi-solitary), really no way around that, given his social status. The consequences for actions can be extremely severe, as OP is finally learning - perhaps for the first time in his life.

Yes, inequality under the law is the rule, not the exception - and not just in SA. OP’s trial once again proves The Rich Man’s Law and The Poor Man’s Law are alive and very well. This article illustrates that fact perfectly.

Inequality Before the Law: Oscar Pistorius vs. Ronnie Fakude
http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/arti...-pistorius-vs.-ronnie-fakude/#.U1-OC6J4J51via
 
I realize everyone has their "gut feelings" on what may or may not unfold in court Thursday. Since I am not a lawyer, I'm guessing no one is too interested in my "gut feeling" but decided to share it anyway. Also, what will happen VS what should happen - are 2 different things entirely. If I was predicting what "should" happen - OP would be found guilty of pre-meditated murder & receive a life sentence. Bail revoked immediately, upon the reading of the verdict.

Based on what I've heard/seen in court, along with what I feel a Judge such as Masipa would view as "justice" served, I believe on Sept 11th, there is a good chance the following might take place:

1. Judge M will finish her verdict summation in a single day. She will not want the media speculating on her outcome before the following day's completion. So she will do everything possible to tie up verdict in a single day (as long as there are no issues & it's a normal length day in court)

2. Oscar will NOT be found guilty,of "pre-meditated" murder
3. Oscar will be found guilty of murder (either "dolus directus" or "dolus eventualis")
4. Oscar will be found guilty of the other 3 charges (Tasha's, sunroof & ammo charge)

5. Oscar's sentencing for the above (ammo, sunroof, Tasha's) charges, will result in fines & non-jail time. If any time given, will run concurrently with murder charge.
6. Oscar's sentence for murder will be approx 15-20 years. (I believe the min. sentence for "directus" is 15 years if no previous conviction. I would guess 15 yrs given, but the fact OP obviously lied & changed "direction" so many times, Masipa may add a few extra years.

Re: BAIL & APPEAL
7. Judge M will grant "leave on appeal" (not sure if I'm calling it by it's correct term) - she will grant his right to an appeal. (She feels confident that case & evidence all handled fairly and by the law. She is not worried about a reversal.)
8. Judge M will not grant bail this time around for Pistorius. As a convicted murderer and her view that there is a slim chance of any reversal on appeal, she will get his jail time started. She may however, wait until sentencing to revoke his bail, allowing him time to get his things in order for prison. If she does allow this, she will place him under house arrest, not allowed to leave his Uncle's home. (I would disagree with this decision 100%. I believe Oscar would never consider entering prison for any term more than a year. He will "disappear" first before allowing that.)

9. If Judge M were to find OP guilty of CH (I do NOT think she will), I believe she will definitely allow bail pending sentencing (and possibly pending appeal). However, if she did find him guilty of CH, she will sentence him to jail time for at least 3-5 years, not probation or house arrest.

10. Finally, I believe Oscar's team will fight strongly for bail while waiting for appeal. They will take it to the highest court level possible and likely win a reprieve at some stage - some court granting OP his bail while waiting for the appeal. (He will then disappear closer to when appeal ruling ready to be addressed.)

Whatever is to happen Thursday, it should be riveting. I of course, am not a lawyer, so my 10 POINTS above are simply "best guess" based on what I have followed in the courtroom & what I feel would be fair & just, based on the S.A. legal system as best I understand it. (Re: OP "disappearing" if found guilty of murder - this is based on his lack of accepting responsibility for anything that goes wrong in his life.)

:goodpost:

My feelings almost exactly. I do have one concern in that we see that black and white, rich and poor are treated differently. I really hope the court goes out of its way to make sure this is not seen to happen in OP's case.
 
:goodpost:

My feelings almost exactly. I do have one concern in that we see that black and white, rich and poor are treated differently. I really hope the court goes out of its way to make sure this is not seen to happen in OP's case.

I have a feeling OP will be the scapegoat sacrificed on the cusp of a turning tide. Masipa knows the opportunity she and this trial can bring and with her past, ignoring it is surely not an option. I think the world would be somewhat outraged if justice wasn't met on this case in this day and age.
 
Well exactly.

Masipa is no fool........................and she is backed up by 2 assessors who are obviously no fools either.
Not one of them will be 'fooled' by the tricks/smoke screens and general deviation of the facts that Roux has tried even though his attempts have been valiant in defence of his client,I'll give him that.

4 independent ear witnesses to a woman screaming for her life within minutes of a woman being shot and killed are just too much for Roux I'm afraid....................he should be fined and given community service for even trying IMO.
Someone said on here recently that a laywer(knowing his client was guilty) should still represent them and ensure he gets a fair trial..............I totally agree.

IMO................Roux/the family/the estate cat and all the barking dogs of that night KNOW OP assassinated/executed Reeva.
They are not IMO trying to ensure he gets a fair trial..................they are trying to get the charges dropped as if he is innocent and should be allowed to carry on with his life as normal..............Disgraceful, it really is, how can these people sleep at night !

Spot on, IMO.
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/p...car-pistoriuss-fate-in-her-hands-9715986.html

Apologies if this has already been posted. The Judge is a woman who's grown up in poverty and had a number of siblings die as children. The affluent, entitled and indulged OP's physical differences are unlikely to tug too hard at her heartstrings.

Roux tried his hardest with his "Imagine a boy growing up with no legs..." saga but I'm confident she'll see the adult OP for who he is - a murderer.
 
Ok... 5 days to Judgement Day. It feels like a Terminator movie!
 
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