Personally I wouldn't be shocked if Tad doesn't go. I think he knows he is never leaving prison.
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I am not sure but for some reason I get that he is just "all talk" with CIA talk etc. I'm not saying he won't put up a fight I'm just seeing kinda a "big talker" after all he walked into a WM when everyone knows there are camera's all over the place there. Just because he hasn't been found yet I think is just a fluke and not to anything he's doing.
But I'm not going to disagree with you just what I think. I'm thinking he was thinking with the wrong head and isn't as smart as people think, but I'm not too proud to admit when I'm wrong.